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Bill ConnellyJun 20, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Bill Connelly is simply a writer for ESPN. He covers assemblage football, shot and tennis. He has been astatine ESPN since 2019.
In their archetypal twelvemonth arsenic existent league rivals, Army and Navy joined forces to bargain everyone's thunder.
Heading into the 2024 season, the sports books had Army and Navy projected to triumph astir 12 combined games. SP+ said 11.6. Both programs had slipped successful caller years; blocking regularisation changes targeted the benignant of cut-blocking communal with service-academy enactment attacks, and the liberalization of transportation rules opened up a caller mode for each non-service academies to supplement their rosters. Army had gone conscionable 12-12 successful 2022-23, portion Navy had gone 16-30 from 2020-23.
This clip past year, you could beauteous easy overgarment a representation of assemblage shot leaving some programs behind. It's a batch harder to bash that now. Navy raced past AAC favourite (and CFP contender) Memphis, 56-44, successful an early-season way conscionable connected the mode to a 6-0 start, and Army bushed its archetypal 9 opponents by an mean of 35-10. Both teams stumbled midseason erstwhile their QBs began hobbling around, but some rallied -- Army blew retired Tulane, 35-14, successful its archetypal ever AAC title game, past Navy bushed Army the adjacent week. Not including the crippled against each other, the teams went 0-2 against nationalist finalist Notre Dame and 21-2 against everyone else.
The occurrence of the academies overshadowed each different stories successful the AAC. Memphis and Tulane inactive won a combined 20 games, with each continuing to nutrient a level of extent and athleticism progressively uncommon successful the Group of 5. UTSA, ECU and USF each overcame dilatory starts -- and, successful ECU's case, a manager firing -- to decorativeness strong. The conference's lower-rung programs were awfully bad, but the AAC had capable extent to decorativeness with the champion SP+ mean successful the G5. It's projected to bash the aforesaid this season.
Will the AAC nutrient much astonishment surges successful 2025? And if so, who? Will the champ endanger to nab the G5's playoff autobid from Boise State? And of the galore caller first-year coaches among past year's lesser teams, who figures things retired the fastest? Let's preview the AAC!
Every week done the summer, Bill Connelly volition preview different FBS conference, yet including each 136 FBS teams. The previews volition see 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and Sun Belt previews.
2024 recap
In past year's AAC preview, the projected bid of decorativeness astatine the apical was Memphis-UTSA-Tulane-USF-ECU. Take retired Army and Navy, and that was a beauteous bully work connected things. Projecting Tulsa, Charlotte and Temple astatine the bottommost was astir right, too. But the academies threw disconnected the equilibrium of power. Now we get to find retired if they tin bash truthful again.
Continuity table
The continuity array looks astatine each team's returning accumulation levels (offense, defence and overall), the fig of 2024 FBS starts from some returning and incoming players -- successful immoderate cases, including players who started games successful 2023 but missed past play with wounded -- and the approximate fig of redshirt freshmen connected the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes marque it precise hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an progressively hard creation successful roster management, but immoderate teams propulsion it disconnected amended than others.
The projections beneath are delightfully messy, and the continuity array gives america a beauteous bully consciousness regarding why. The defending champion, Army, is replacing its starting backmost and plentifulness of others, and of people the Black Knights aren't taking vantage of either the transportation portal oregon redshirts. Meanwhile, the best squad per SP+, Memphis, mislaid astir its full starting lineup, but it brought successful a lineup's worthy of starters from different FBS schools. These resets unfastened a door, and betwixt Navy, Tulane and 2 of the "got blistery precocious successful the year" teams mentioned supra (USF and UTSA), idiosyncratic absorbing and experienced could locomotion done it.
2025 projections
Tulane starts retired successful beforehand with the champion operation of 2024 prime and 2025 continuity. But 4 different teams are wrong 4.3 points successful the SP+ projections, and USF isn't peculiarly acold disconnected the gait either. That's astir fractional the league with a semi-realistic way to the apical of the standings. What much tin we inquire for from a rubric race?
Five teams with betwixt an 11.7% and 16.6% changeable astatine the title, positive 3 much betwixt 5.8% and 7.7%. Ladies and gentlemen, the Big 12 of the Group of 5.
Five champion games of 2025
Here are the 5 league games that diagnostic (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for some teams and (b) a projected scoring borderline nether 10 points.
Army astatine Tulane (Oct. 18). At archetypal glance, the AAC docket is arsenic balanced arsenic the league -- of the 10 spots disposable successful these 5 games, Tulane occupies 3 (including 2 connected the road), portion Army, Memphis and UTSA each inhabit 2 and Navy occupies one. I privation we could person squeezed a USF crippled successful here, too, but this is simply a beauteous bully list. And the archetypal of the 5 large games is simply a 2024 AAC Championship rematch.
Tulane astatine UTSA (Oct. 30). This is 1 of the bigger Thursday nighttime games connected assemblage football's 2025 docket. Both Tulane and UTSA are projected favorites successful each but 1 crippled earlier this 1 -- UTSA is simply a Week 1 underdog against Texas A&M, portion Tulane is simply a Week 4 underdog against Ole Miss -- and the victor could caput into November arsenic the AAC co-favorite astatine worst.
Tulane astatine Memphis (Nov. 7). In a nine-day span, Tulane faces the apical 2 projected AAC favorites not named Tulane. Both are connected the road, too. That's beauteous rough.
Navy astatine Memphis (Nov. 27) and Army astatine UTSA (Nov. 28). Thanksgiving play gives america a brace of contests that could service arsenic either elimination games oregon previews of the AAC Championship. And it's beauteous noticeable that some of Memphis' and UTSA's games connected this database are astatine home, portion 2 of Tulane's and some of Army's are astatine home.
Conference rubric (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Jon Sumrall (second year, 9-5 overall)
2025 projection: 48th successful SP+, 8.0 mean wins (6.0 successful the AAC)
When we casually speech astir the sturdiest G5 programs successful the country, we're apt to commencement with Boise State, Memphis and Tulane. The Green Wave are an assumed powerfulness astatine this point. That's beauteous unthinkable considering that, arsenic precocious arsenic 2021, the Green Wave were going 2-10. In the 23 seasons betwixt 1999 and 2021, they averaged 4.2 wins per year, but implicit the past 3 seasons they've won 32 games with a roster that truthful intelligibly looks similar thing from a powerfulness league that it's erased a quarter-century's worthy of walk impressions. They adjacent had capable extent and firepower to past a coaching alteration (from Willie Fritz to Jon Sumrall successful 2023) with minimal damage.
In a way, this abrupt cachet has backfired. When powerfulness programs spot what you're producing nowadays, they person nary occupation raiding your roster. Tulane mislaid 8 starters to power-conference programs: backmost Darian Mensah (Duke), moving backmost Makhi Hughes (Oregon), choky extremity Alex Bauman (Miami), OLB Matthew Fobbs-White (Baylor), ILB Jesus Machado (Houston), cornerback Rayshawn Pleasant (Auburn) and adjacent kicker Ethan Head (West Virginia) and punter Will Karoll (UCLA). Hell, adjacent 3 backups -- backmost Kai Horton (Washington) and DTs Adonis Friloux (Baylor) and Parker Petersen (Wisconsin) -- moved up the league ladder.
This is simply a endowment drain palmy G5 programs are rapidly having to get utilized to, but Tulane did what you person to do: onslaught back. Sumrall utilized Tulane's marque sanction to onshore 20 transfers who started astatine slightest erstwhile for FBS teams past year. Among the astir important were quarterbacks Kadin Semonza (Ball State) and Brendan Sullivan (Iowa), moving backmost Zuberi Mobley (FAU), slot receiver Omari Hayes (FAU), All-Sun Belt halfway Jack Hollifield (Appalachian State), antiaircraft tackle Derrick Shepard Jr. (UAB), borderline rushers Santana Hopper (App State), Maurice Westmoreland (UTEP) and Jordan Norman (South Alabama) and cornerback LJ Green (Troy). He's fundamentally compiled a mid-major all-star team, and helium grabbed a trio of smaller-school stars for the secondary, too: Corners Isaiah Wadsworth (Wofford) and KC Eziomume (Albany) and information Tavare Smith Jr. (East Central) combined for six INTs and 25 walk breakups past season.
Combine this haul with talented returnees similar blue-chip quarterback-turned-tight extremity Ty Thompson, all-conference violative linemen Derrick Graham and Shadre Hurst, antiaircraft tackle Kameron Hamilton, linebacker Sam Howard and safeties Bailey Despanie and Jack Tchienchou, and you intelligibly person 1 of the astir talented rosters successful the AAC. The quick-passing Semonza and dual-threat Sullivan some astir apt correspond downgrades from Mensah, and specified a monolithic magnitude of alteration volition ever present the anticipation of a failed chemistry experiment. But betwixt Sumrall's caller prowess arsenic a caput manager (he won back-to-back Sun Belt titles astatine Troy earlier landing successful New Orleans), Tulane's caller prowess arsenic a programme and the sheer extent the Green Wave look to person successful the trenches, they are inactive 1 of the conference's safer bets.
Head coach: Ryan Silverfield (sixth year, 42-21 overall)
2025 projection: 53rd successful SP+, 8.7 mean wins (5.9 successful the AAC)
You could accidental that Memphis is the Ole Miss of the AAC. Like the Rebels, the Tigers peaked successful the 1960s, faded into obscurity for astir of 3 decades, perked up successful the early-2000s, past bottomed retired a fewer years later. Both rallied to respectability successful the 2010s, however, and successful 2024 some attempted to pounce connected newfound opportunities, loading up successful the portal and holding onto stars successful the hopes of snagging a CFP bid.
Like Ole Miss, Memphis fielded a mostly dynamite product, but fell abbreviated of its goals. The discourtesy finished successful the SP+ apical 20 for the seventh clip successful 10 years, and the defence improved, but breakdowns led to track-meet losses to Navy (56-44) and UTSA (44-36), and Memphis ended up with the astir disappointing 11-win play successful schoolhouse history. And past fundamentally each starter left: Left tackle Chris Adams and antiaircraft extremity William Whitlow Jr. are the lone full-timers returning.
This doesn't dependable similar the commencement of a 2025 occurrence story, does it? But arsenic with Ole Miss -- and Tulane, for that substance -- Memphis utilized its cachet to reload successful the portal. The large get was backmost Brendon Lewis, who has thrown for 5,330 yards and rushed for 2,108 (not including sacks) implicit parts of 5 seasons astatine Colorado and Nevada; the elder should brace good with returning moving backs Greg Desrosiers Jr. and arsenic agelong arsenic a retooled violative enactment (six transfers, 1 JUCO) holds up, the tally crippled should beryllium dynamite. The passing game, however, volition necessitate occurrence from a fig of little proven transfers similar Jadon Thompson (Louisville), C.J. Smith (Purdue), Ger-Cari Caldwell (NC A&T) and choky extremity Jerry Cross (Penn State). Returning youngsters Brady Kluse and Keonde Henry person upside, too.
With its past of success, and with Lewis successful tow, the discourtesy gets the payment of the doubt. The defense, little so. Twenty-two defenders saw astatine slightest 100 snaps past year, and lone 3 (Whitlow, tackle Mond Cole and information Kourtlan Marsh) are inactive connected the roster. Not surprisingly, Ryan Silverfield tried to load up successful the portal, adding 5 linemen, six linebackers and 10 DBs. It's a amusive premix of erstwhile prima recruits looking for much playing clip (Indiana tackle Marcus Burris Jr., UNC linebacker Crews Law, Michigan country Myles Pollard, Florida State information Omarion Cooper, Arizona State nickel Kamari Wilson), mid-major stars (WMU tackle Isaiah Green, UAB linebacker Everett Roussaw Jr., Nevada linebacker Drue Watts), JMU country Chauncey Logan, Akron country Joey Hunter) and smaller-school stars (Incarnate Word tackle Chase Carter, Chattanooga country Beni Mwamba, Harding information Jeremiah Jordan). Jordon Hankins' archetypal play arsenic antiaircraft coordinator saw an uptick successful aggression and turnovers and a fewer excessively galore large plays. If helium tin mold this caller acceptable of endowment into thing decent, Memphis volition again contend successful the AAC.
Head coach: Jeff Traylor (sixth year, 46-20 overall)
2025 projection: 63rd successful SP+, 7.8 mean wins (5.5 successful the AAC)
Sometimes a coach's mediocre timing is simply a school's large timing. With his immense Texas precocious schoolhouse ties and his contiguous occurrence astatine UTSA, Jeff Traylor has been linked to fundamentally each power-conference opening (or rumored opening) successful the authorities of Texas successful the 2020s. None of the expected moves came to fruition, however, and aft winning 32 games from 2021-23, it looked similar Traylor's infinitesimal arsenic a high-profile promotion campaigner had travel to an extremity erstwhile UTSA, with a rebuilt roster, began past play 3-5. After 3 consecutive SP+ top-60 finishes, the Roadrunners were 97th entering November.
Everything clicked late, however, and they charged backmost to decorativeness 64th. The discourtesy had begun to ignite successful mid-October, the defence joined the party, and by the extremity of a 44-15 blowout of Coastal Carolina successful the Myrtle Beach Bowl, UTSA had capped a rousing turnaround. And aft rallying to 7-6, the Roadrunners bask immoderate of the champion continuity successful the AAC.
Most of that continuity comes connected offense, wherever Owen McCown (3,424 yards, 25 TDs) is among 9 returning starters and is the No. 2 returning QB successful the AAC successful presumption of Total QBR.
Actually, including 2 2023 starting linemen who were wounded past year, the Roadrunners really benignant of instrumentality 12 starters connected O.
McCown and moving backmost Robert Henry volition enactment up down the league's deepest line, 1 that returns 4 starters, positive 2 2023 starters who were injured past autumn (left tackle Venly Tatafu and halfway Luke Lapeze) and Georgia State tackle transportation Trevor Timmons. Plus, 5 players with astatine slightest 28 catches are back, led by big-play antheral Willie McCoy, choky extremity Houston Thomas and sure-handed slot David Amador II. This could easy beryllium the 5th consecutive play that UTSA finishes with a top-40 ranking successful violative SP+.
As with Memphis, the defence has acold much questions to answer. It has been UTSA's weaker portion for 4 consecutive seasons, and of the 19 players with 200-plus snaps past year, lone six return. Granted, that includes a brace of studs successful antiaircraft tackle (Brandon Brown, 1 of the astir progressive and disruptive 300-pounders successful the country) and nickel Owen Pewee (14 tally stops and 2 INTs past year) and a imaginable breakout prima successful borderline rusher Vic Shaw. But extent could beryllium tenuous unless a fig of transfers breaks through. There's surely imaginable successful the portal haul, which includes some erstwhile blue-chippers (Baylor antiaircraft tackle Kaian Roberts-Day, TCU extracurricular linebacker Shad Banks Jr., Maryland information Brandon Jacob) and smaller-school stars (Tennessee State antiaircraft tackle Cameron Blaylock, East Texas A&M linebacker Brandon Tucker).
Few G5 teams volition look much similar a power-conference squad than UTSA, with 340-pounders connected the violative line, 310-pounders connected the antiaircraft line, athleticism connected the edges and, of course, a McCown astatine quarterback. After a half-season setback, Traylor appears to person crafted different heavy and breathtaking team, and the Roadrunners are projected favorites successful 10 games.
Head coach: Brian Newberry (third year, 15-10 overall)
2025 projection: 68th successful SP+, 7.9 mean wins (5.7 successful the AAC)
With some Tulane and Memphis flipping truthful overmuch of their rosters, you mightiness thin toward UTSA arsenic the safer stake successful the AAC race. Or possibly you could conscionable spell with the squad that knows however to triumph large erstwhile it has a prima QB. From Ricky Dobbs to Keenan Reynolds to Malcolm Perry, Navy produced a tally of large enactment quarterbacks nether Ken Niumatalolo, and aft stagnation to commencement the 2020s, Niumatalolo's successor Brian Newberry combined a semi-modernized onslaught and brilliance from Blake Horvath to complaint backmost to 10-3 past fall. Both the discourtesy and defence produced their champion SP+ rankings since the 11-win run of 2019, and possibly astir intriguingly, contempt a deficiency of redshirting and threats from the portal, some units instrumentality rather a spot of past year's production.
On offense, that of people starts with Horvath. His rushing explosiveness (1,298 non-sack yards, 7.8 yards per carry, 17 touchdowns) was reminiscent of Perry's, and his 1,353 passing yards were the third-most for Navy since the mid-1990s. Newberry has attempted to unfastened up the discourtesy a bit, and nether caller coordinator Drew Cronic past season, the Midshipmen lined up successful the shotgun 45% of the time; Perry and the 2019 discourtesy did truthful lone 10% of the time. Stretching defenses retired evidently produced much big-play lanes for Horvath and slotback Eli Heidenreich, who combined 65 rushes with 39 catches and gained 1,115 yards from scrimmage (10.7 yards per touch) with 9 TDs. They're some back, arsenic are superior fullback Alex Tecza and Brandon Chatman (7.7 yards per touch), different amusive limb connected the edge. The enactment is simply a question mark, arsenic Navy deployed a choky rotation of fundamentally 7 guys and 4 are gone. But defender Ben Purvis is all-conference caliber, and Navy's way grounds up beforehand is solid. I'm guessing it volition execute arsenic required.
Navy's defence has been dependable since Newberry's accomplishment arsenic antiaircraft coordinator successful 2019. They've averaged a 65.2 antiaircraft SP+ ranking successful that span, and their No. 53 ranking past autumn was their champion since 2015. This is simply a bend-don't-break portion -- they ranked 72nd successful occurrence complaint past play but 22nd successful yards allowed per palmy play -- and that tin enactment awfully good erstwhile you fertile successful the top-30 successful some turnovers (24, 17th nationally) and reddish portion touchdown complaint allowed (53.5%, 29th).
There's much turnover to woody with connected defense, but the Midshipmen inactive instrumentality 13 of the 20 players with 100-plus snaps, including 4 of the six players with astatine slightest 5 tackles for nonaccomplishment (tackles Landon Robinson and Griffen Willis, linebacker Luke Pirris and nickel Jaxson Campbell). The secondary has a mates of dynamite play-makers to regenerate successful country Dashaun Peele and information Rayuan Lane III, but it inactive has coagulated acquisition connected its side.
Head coach: Jeff Monken (12th year, 82-57 overall)
2025 projection: 67th successful SP+, 7.6 mean wins (5.5 successful the AAC)
My favourite portion astir the simultaneous Army-Navy surges is that, offensively, they came astir successful wholly antithetic ways. Navy tried to modernize its enactment onslaught a bit, portion Army did the nonstop opposite, bailing connected a renovation and going backmost to basics. And some approaches worked! With a somewhat much experienced quarterback, Army ended up succeeding somewhat more. Bryson Daily rushed for 1,677 non-sack yards and 32 touchdowns -- helium topped 115 yards successful 11 of 13 games -- and portion the discourtesy slowed arsenic helium battled a midseason injury/illness, helium rushed for 126 yards and 4 TDs successful the AAC Championship, past deed 127 yards and 3 scores successful his last game, an Independence Bowl blowout of Louisiana Tech. Navy was capable to unopen Daily and the Black Knights down, but they finished the twelvemonth with their champion violative SP+ standing successful 28 years, and their defence finished successful the apical 40 for the 3rd clip successful 5 years. Just a superb play each around.
If the caller starting backmost -- astir likely: elder Dewayne Coleman -- tin lucifer Daily's level, Army volition person the pieces to contend again. But wow, is that a precocious bar, 1 that Coleman didn't rather wide successful 111 snaps past season. Regardless, the Black Knights inactive instrumentality a dynamic brace of slot backs successful Noah Short and Hayden Reed (combined: 157 carries and catches, 1,157 yards, 7 TDs) and 2 all-conference linemen successful halfway Brady Small and defender Paolo Gennarelli. Three starters are gone up front, but rather a fewer returnees saw 100-plus snaps, astatine least. The components are coagulated arsenic agelong arsenic the QB play is wherever it needs to be. We'll see.
Nate Woody's defence has an fantabulous way record, and portion the Black Knights lone instrumentality 8 of the 18 defenders with astatine slightest 200 snaps, they're utilized to turnover successful a redshirt-free environment. Among the returnees are an ultra-disruptive duo successful linebacker Andon Thomas and information Casey Larkin (combined: 10 TFLs, 14 tally stops, six interceptions, 5 breakups) and a coagulated country successful Justin Weaver. Up front, inferior tackle Kody Harris-Miller has a hellhole of a motor: He made tackles connected 11.7% of his snaps, much than anyone but the starting wrong linebackers, and he's 301 pounds!
Army had averaged conscionable 2.9 wins per twelvemonth and had bowled conscionable erstwhile successful the 17 seasons earlier Monken's arrival. But successful the past 9 years, the Black Knights person averaged 8.4 wins, person deed double-digit wins 3 times and person finished ranked twice. They've won league titles successful 100% of the years they've been successful a conference. (OK, fine, 1 of one, but still.) We'll spot however AAC foes accommodate with much familiarity, and replacing Daily is not going to beryllium easy. But Monken has earned epic payment of the uncertainty -- Army's a contender until proven otherwise.
A mates of breaks distant from a run
Head coach: Alex Golesh (third year, 14-12 overall)
2025 projection: 77th successful SP+, 6.2 mean wins (4.9 successful the AAC)
After winning 4 full games successful 3 years, USF won 7 games successful Alex Golesh's 2023 debut, playing good connected discourtesy and improving from historically atrocious to simply atrocious connected defense. The Bulls ranked precocious successful returning accumulation heading into 2024, too, which made maine wonderment if they had different immense surge successful them.
SP+ was much reserved, projecting the Bulls 76th with an mean triumph full of 6.7. They went 7-6 and ranked 79th. Always spot the numbers implicit my gut.
Heading into 2025, USF again ranks highly successful returning production, and I'm again trying to rein successful expectations portion SP+ again projects different holding-the-fort season. Maybe my gut's close the 2nd time?
Last year's discourtesy overcame a season-ending limb wounded to sophomore backmost Byrum Brown and ended up surging precocious down different sophomore, Bryce Archie. They were terribly inefficient wide (116th successful occurrence rate) -- which is unspeakable erstwhile you're 1 of the fewer remaining offenses attempting to determination astatine a mach-speed tempo -- but they balanced that with monolithic rushing explosiveness. Both Archie and Brown are back; if Brown is genuinely 100% healthy, he's the much explosive runner and a somewhat little error-prone passer, but Archie was beauteous bully by the extremity of 2024. The QB of prime volition person a wonderfully experienced enactment successful beforehand of him, but the accomplishment corps has mislaid its apical 3 RBs and apical 2 WRs. Sophomore wideout Keshaun Singleton has big-play potential, and Golesh added 2 transportation RBs (Charlotte's Cartevious Norton and Oklahoma's Sam Franklin) and 4 mostly unproven pass-catchers.
Defensive betterment has been dilatory but dependable nether coordinator Todd Orlando. His 2024 defence was assertive against the tally and hunted turnovers, but it besides gave up each the large plays you expect with that approach. If acquisition produces less breakdowns, the Bulls could beryllium successful bully signifier -- 13 of 20 players with 200-plus snaps return, and 10 of 12 incoming transfers are juniors oregon seniors. Mac Harris, Rico Watson III and North Texas transportation Chavez Brown should signifier 1 of the much disruptive linebacking corps successful the G5, and the secondary has tons of veterans. If the defence complements an summation successful violative ratio by allowing less large plays, the Bulls are successful business.
Head coach: Eric Morris (third year, 11-14 overall)
2025 projection: 92nd successful SP+, 6.8 mean wins (4.3 successful the AAC)
You can't impeach North Texas of being boring.
Chart translation: The Mean Green discourtesy was perfectly mean from an ratio standpoint but had the most successful palmy plays successful the country. Wideout Damon Ward Jr. averaged 18.4 yards per catch. Running backs Shane Porter and Makenzie McGill II averaged 6.4 yards per carry. When freshman backmost Drew Mestemaker took implicit for seasoned Chandler Morris successful the First Responder Bowl, helium completed passes of 42, 46 and 57 yards and ripped disconnected a 70-yard TD run. (He besides threw 2 picks and took 3 sacks successful a 30-28 loss.) Eric Morris' discourtesy goes for it often connected 4th downs -- their 44 attempts led the federation -- lives by chunk plays and occasionally perishes from a deficiency of them.
If you're looking for pure, bonkers entertainment, UNT is astir ever determination for you. In 2 years and 25 games nether Morris, the Mean Green person scored astatine slightest 35 points 14 times and allowed astatine slightest 35 points 15 times. Granted, there's dense borderline for mistake successful playing this mode -- they're 1-10 erstwhile they don't people astatine slightest 35 -- but they're present to entertain us, and I admit it.
If they're present to really triumph games, well, it's beauteous wide wherever the betterment needs to start. UNT has lone ranked amended than 100th successful antiaircraft SP+ erstwhile successful the past 11 years; Morris indispensable anticipation that a Bearkat transplant makes a immense difference. Coordinator Skyler Cassity moved implicit from Sam Houston and brought a fig of Bearkat stars with him -- tackle Richard Outland Jr., extremity Briceon Hayes, linebacker Trey Fields, corners David Fisher and Da'Veawn Armstead. Considering SHSU ranked 46th successful antiaircraft SP+ past year, these players instantly go the astir proven UNT defenders.
The discourtesy volition beryllium good with either Mestemaker oregon erstwhile Albany prima (and past Miami backup) Reese Poffenbarger moving the amusement and distributing the shot to backs McGill and Missouri State transportation Jayden Becks and receivers Dalton Carnes, Miles Coleman, Sam Houston transportation Simeon Evans and immoderate fig of explosive smaller-school transfers similar Tyrese Hunt-Thompson (Ferris State). The violative enactment is facing immoderate turnover, but ... the discourtesy volition beryllium fine.
Head coach: Blake Harrell (first afloat year, 5-1 overall)
2025 projection: 90th successful SP+, 6.0 mean wins (4.2 successful the AAC)
College shot gives america a tiny illustration of games, but we inactive person clip for epic crippled twists. ECU fired Mike Houston aft a 3-4 commencement past twelvemonth -- his Pirates had gone conscionable 5-14 since the commencement of 2023 and were 96th successful SP+, and signing up for fractional a play with an interim is fundamentally confirming you've got a mislaid play connected your hands.
Under interim Blake Harrell, however, ECU past won 4 games successful a enactment by an mean of 19 points. Some of that had to bash with the docket (three of the victims were Temple, FAU and Tulsa), but the discourtesy shifted into a caller gear, and the defence stopped getting torched. The Pirates fell to Navy successful the regular play finale but bushed NC State successful a vessel thriller (complete with the bloody, late-game brawl that we would expect from ECU-NC State). They finished 8-5 and 74th successful SP+, a bully turnaround and thing but a mislaid season.
Naturally, Harrell got the full-time gig. And his archetypal authoritative Pirates squad is an implicit enigma to me.
On 1 hand, determination are stars here. Quarterback Katin Houser was explosive (and occasionally interception-prone) aft taking implicit successful the starting lineup, and 2 of past year's astir explosive wideouts, Anthony Smith and sophomore Yannick Smith, are backmost on with immoderate erstwhile high-profile recruits similar Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma) and Tyler Johnson (Penn State). The defence returns bully borderline attackers -- namely, extremity J.D. Lampley and OLBs Ryheem Craig and Samuel Dankah -- and added 2 of my favourite smaller-school transfers successful corners Key Crowell (Indianapolis) and Jordy Lowery (Western Carolina). They combined for 11 INTs and 18 walk breakups past year.
On the different hand, prima moving backmost Rahjai Harris and virtually each walk catcher not named Smith are gone, arsenic are 3 OL starters and 15 of the 20 defenders with 200-plus snaps. It wouldn't astonishment maine if the discourtesy was beardown again, but it besides wouldn't astonishment maine if the defence took a coagulated measurement backward. ECU isn't excessively acold distant from contending successful the AAC and isn't excessively acold distant from the ample battalion of mediocre teams beneath it, too.
Just looking for a way to 6-6
Head coach: Trent Dilfer (third year, 7-17 overall)
2025 projection: 112th successful SP+, 4.6 mean wins (2.8 successful the AAC)
The astir confusing prosecute of 2023 has frankincense acold been 1 of its slightest successful. Instead of sticking with Bryant Vincent, who was coagulated arsenic a full-season interim pursuing Bill Clark's unexpected retirement, UAB attempted a home-run swing, bringing successful Trent Dilfer. The erstwhile Super Bowl winning backmost and ESPN expert had lone coached astatine the precocious schoolhouse level. To enactment it diplomatically, this felt similar a monolithic risk.
Risks often spell unrewarded. After averaging 8.3 wins per twelvemonth nether Clark and Vincent, the Blazers person won 7 games successful 2 seasons nether Dilfer. Alex Mortensen's discourtesy has been beauteous solid, but the defence has been a disaster. Dilfer's been caught connected camera screaming astatine his assistants. Not great.
Dilfer's 3rd play is fundamentally a do-over, implicit with a caller antiaircraft coordinator (former Air Force DC Steve Russ) and astir wholly caller lineup. Quarterback Jalen Kitna, near tackle JonDarius Morgan and information Sirad Bryant are back. I conscionable listed each the returning starters.
Among the 30 incoming transfers who volition beryllium asked to prevention Dilfer's occupation are immoderate beauteous amusive players. Receivers AJ Johnson (ETSU) and Evan McCray (Wingate) each averaged implicit 15 yards per drawback past year, and extremity Jamichael Rogers (Miles College) had 18.5 TFLs successful Division II. There aren't galore proven FBS entities here, but if they were proven, they astir apt wouldn't person travel to UAB. Still, Dilfer recovered immoderate play-makers, and Mortensen seems similar a genuinely coagulated OC. We'll spot if that's capable to crook things around. With conscionable 2 games arsenic a projected favorite, UAB volition person to overachieve by rather a spot to marque thing of 2025.
Head coach: Zach Kittley (first year)
2025 projection: 115th successful SP+, 4.6 mean wins (2.6 successful the AAC)
After winning large nether Lane Kiffin, FAU decided it was a spot for caput manager reclamation projects. It has since hired erstwhile Florida State caput manager Willie Taggart and erstwhile Texas caput manager Tom Herman. They went a combined 22-35 successful 5 seasons.
It was clip for a caller approach. Zach Kittley, inactive lone 33 years old, was a occurrence idiosyncratic successful 1 play arsenic WKU's violative coordinator and was coagulated successful 3 years astatine Texas Tech. He and antiaircraft coordinator Brett Dewhurst volition effort to respire beingness into a programme that has averaged an violative SP+ ranking of 99.2 implicit the past 5 years and a antiaircraft SP+ ranking of 92.5 implicit the past four.
As is often common, Kittley flipped the roster successful his archetypal year: Right tackle Alex Atcavage is the lone returnee who started much than 7 games past season, and 35 transfers are connected their mode to Boca Raton. A brace of WKU transfers, backmost Caden Veltkamp and receiver Easton Messer, volition beryllium cardinal to a accelerated start, though they'll evidently request tons of help. Kittley landed a mates of smaller-school stars connected defence -- linebacker Paul Tangelo (St. Francis) and country Terez Reid (Grand Valley State) -- but helium brought successful a batch of younger, little proven transfers arsenic well. That signals to maine that he's reasoning long-term. (In hiring a 33-year old, the schoolhouse astir apt was, too.) A Kittley discourtesy volition people points, and the docket features 5 opponents projected 112th oregon worse successful SP+, truthful determination could beryllium immoderate encouraging results. But the 2025 play volition astir apt beryllium much astir gearing up for 2026 and beyond.
Head coach: Scott Abell (first year)
2025 projection: 121st successful SP+, 4.1 mean wins (2.5 successful the AAC)
When Rice hired Mike Bloomgren successful 2018, it made tons of sense. The erstwhile Stanford adjunct had been portion of large nerd-school occurrence successful Palo Alto, and becoming Mid-Major Stanford seemed similar a bully thing.
Rice didn't go Mid-Major Stanford arsenic overmuch arsenic Stanford became Power Conference Rice.
Rice, 2018-24: 26-54 (.325 triumph percentage)
Stanford, 2019-24: 20-46 (.303 triumph percentage)
Bloomgren had 1 decent discourtesy and 2 decent defenses but ne'er built overmuch momentum. It was clip to get creative, and Rice did precisely that.
Say hullo to your caller favourite offense. Scott Abell went 47-28 astatine Davidson, reaching the FCS playoffs 3 times and ne'er finishing beneath .500. He runs a shotgun dispersed enactment onslaught that averaged 315.6 rushing yards per crippled successful 2024 and resembles astir thing astatine the FBS level. (Navy mightiness beryllium the closest comparison?) That's large quality for a perchance fantabulous brace of returning moving backs; inferior Quinton Jackson and sophomore Taji Atkins combined to mean 6.0 yards per transportation arsenic backups past year.
Transitioning from Bloomgren's much pro-style onslaught could inactive instrumentality a while, arsenic whoever wins the starting backmost occupation -- inferior AJ Padgett, sophomore Chase Jenkins oregon redshirt freshman Drew Devillier -- was recruited to tally a precise antithetic offense. The enactment is comparatively inexperienced, too. Jon Kay, a Bloomgren holdover, volition coordinate a defence that defended the walk rather good but has to regenerate 3 of its apical 4 walk rushers and 4 starting DBs. Linebacker Ty Morris is dynamite, and extremity Michael Daley was a small-sample star, but the champion quality for the defence would beryllium if the discourtesy scored much points and gave it little value to carry.
Head coach: Tre Lamb (first year)
2025 projection: 120th successful SP+, 3.9 mean wins (2.4 successful the AAC)
At lone 35, Tre Lamb has already proven rather a spot arsenic a caput coach. He led Gardner-Webb to FCS playoff appearances successful 2022 and 2023 and lifted ETSU from 3-8 to 7-5 successful 2024; his champion offenses person been balanced and explosive, and he's brought successful erstwhile North Greenville violative coordinator (and big-play seeker) Brad Robbins arsenic OC. They'll effort to make momentum successful a mode Kevin Wilson couldn't. Wilson uncovered tons of breathtaking young violative endowment but couldn't clasp onto immoderate of it, and Tulsa went conscionable 7-17 successful his 2 seasons.
I similar the offense's potential. Quarterback Kirk Francis and holdover receivers Grayson Tempest and Zion Steptoe volition beryllium joined by 3 breathtaking power-conference RBs -- Dominic Richardson (Baylor), Sevion Morrison (Kansas) and Ajay Allen (Miami) -- and a large batch of receivers including Calvin Johnson II (Northwestern) and Mekhi Miller (Missouri). Eight transportation linemen volition surely supply plentifulness of options up front, too.
Defense was Wilson's biggest issue, and it's a mostly cleanable slate connected that side. Twelve transfers articulation a two-deep that does diagnostic bully size up beforehand (particularly that of returning tackles Tai Newhouse and Joe Hjelle) and imaginable play-makers successful linebacker Chris Thompson and sophomore country Elijah Green. Incoming linebacker Ray Coney was 1 of ETSU's champion players past season, and Lamb was capable to motion six transportation linemen who started astatine slightest 1 FBS crippled past year, led by tackles Tim Hardiman (Arkansas State) and Nahki Johnson (Pitt).
Tulsa has regressed for 4 consecutive seasons, truthful the thought of a speedy turnaround is astir apt foolish. But I similar Lamb's archetypal roster-building moves, and I similar the athleticism connected some sides of the ball.
Head coach: K.C. Keeler (first year)
2025 projection: 126th successful SP+, 3.8 mean wins (2.2 successful the AAC)
When things autumn apart, it tin hap astir overnight.
Temple, 2015-19: 43-24 (.642 triumph percentage), 55.6 mean SP+ ranking
Temple, 2020-24: 13-42 (.236 triumph percentage), 119.0 mean SP+ ranking
After steady, encouraging advancement passim the 2000s and 2010s, Temple has rapidly reverted backmost to its 1990s signifier successful the 2020s. In 3 seasons successful charge, Stan Drayton went 3-9 3 times and couldn't make advancement connected either discourtesy oregon defense.
This is looking similar an progressively hard job, but K.C. Keeler mightiness beryllium up for the challenge. The 65-year aged won FCS nationalist titles astatine some Delaware and Sam Houston (17 years apart, nary less), and helium oversaw a 9-3 surge successful SHSU's 2nd play successful FBS. No 1 is guaranteed to succeed, particularly astatine Temple, but the prosecute made each sorts of sense.
I similar a batch of Keeler's archetypal roster moves. He brought successful Gevani McCoy (Oregon State) and Anthony Chiccitt (Robert Morris) to vie with holdover Evan Simon astatine quarterback, and moving backmost Jay Ducker (SHSU) and receiver Colin Chase (St. Thomas) could spruce up a shaky accomplishment corps. Defensive extremity Charles Calhoun III (Gannon), linebacker Ty Davis (Delaware), corners Jaylen Castleberry (Youngstown State) and Dontae Pollard (Samford) and information Pooh Lawton (Slippery Rock) each produced fantabulous disruption numbers astatine smaller schools, and linebacker Jalen Stewart was 1 of UMass' amended defenders past season. The little said astir the violative line, the better, but the defence mightiness beryllium successful presumption to amended a decent magnitude retired of the gate. And hey, the bar's low, excessively -- triumph 4 games, and Keeler volition already person done thing Temple hasn't done since the 2010s!
Head coach: Tim Albin (first year)
2025 projection: 133rd successful SP+, 2.9 mean wins (1.8 successful the AAC)
The communal taxable among these past fewer teams: "Things person truly fallen isolated for [school], but I truly similar the prosecute of [coach]."
That's surely existent for Charlotte. The 49ers person yet to decorativeness higher than 100th successful SP+ successful 10 FBS seasons, and similar UAB, the schoolhouse made a risky/unique prosecute heading into 2023. Biff Poggi, hedge money millionaire and erstwhile Jim Harbaugh righthand man, leaned heavy into the transportation portal successful his 2 years successful charge, but helium went conscionable 6-16. Now the reins spell to Tim Albin, who got a veritable Ph. D successful Culture Building arsenic Frank Solich's longtime violative coordinator astatine Ohio and won 30 games successful his past 3 years succeeding Solich.
Albin's Bobcats established a carnal individuality and played acold supra their recruiting rankings and NIL spending levels. And similar truthful galore others down successful this portion of the preview, Albin's archetypal offseason featured a astir afloat roster flip: Center Jonny King, linebacker Reid Williford and information Treyveon McGee are the lone returning starters.
Either Grayson Loftis (Duke), Conner Harrell (North Carolina) oregon Zach Wilcke (JUCO) volition instrumentality implicit astatine QB -- Loftis appears astir apt -- and moving backmost Don Chaney Jr. (Louisville/Miami) and receivers Javen Nicholas (LSU), Jayden McGowan (Boston College) and Ta'ir Brooks (Northern Arizona) volition beryllium asked to marque large contributions quickly. There are loads of transfers everyplace else, too: 5 violative linemen (plus 3 JUCOs), 7 antiaircraft linemen (plus 2 JUCOs), six linebackers, 5 DBs. The linebacking corps has large promise, with Shay Taylor (Ohio) and Kadin Schmitz (Ohio) joining Gavin Willis (Bucknell). I similar the Albin hire, and I similar his archetypal moves. But someone's inactive going to suffer games successful the AAC, and Charlotte seems arsenic apt arsenic anyone to bash that successful 2025.
