2025 Mountain West Conference preview: Can Boise State do it again?

Every 3 decades oregon so, the mid-major shot concern retired West evidently has to destruct itself and regenerate. In 1962, the Western Athletic Conference formed from schools that thought they were excessively beardown for their Border and Skyline Conference brethren. Original members: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. For a moment, it appeared that Pacific Coast Conference castoffs Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State mightiness articulation them, but they ended up portion of what would go the Pac-8 Conference instead.

In 1998, the Mountain West formed from schools that thought they were excessively beardown for the 16-team mega-WAC. Original members: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah and Wyoming. The WAC would clasp connected for a spot by adding schools similar Boise State, Nevada and Utah State, but yet the MWC would instrumentality them too, and the WAC would permission the shot business.

Starting successful 2026, we'll fundamentally person 2 Mountain Wests. Upon the seeming implosion of the Pac-12, the MWC engaged successful immoderate brainstorming, considering not lone adding Pac-12 castoffs Oregon State and Washington State but besides adding rather a fewer different programs and introducing a tiered promotion-and-relegation structure. This is, of course, right up my alley. In the end, however, the Pac-12 did thing much tried-and-true instead: It raided the MWC. Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State -- schools that person combined to triumph 12 of the MWC's past 13 shot crowns -- volition articulation OSU and Wazzu (and Gonzaga successful non-football sports) successful a caller Pac-12 adjacent season. It volition beryllium an MWC+ of sorts, but the MWC did a bully capable occupation of keeping others from defecting that it is inactive acceptable up to unrecorded a beauteous steadfast beingness successful 2026 and beyond. And hey, it's technically not excessively precocious for everyone to revisit that relegation thing; I'm conscionable saying.

Regardless, the MWC successful its existent signifier lives for 1 much play (as does a now-awkward scheduling statement with OSU and Wazzu). And the favourite is an awfully acquainted one. Let's preview the Mountain West!

Every week done the summer, Bill Connelly volition preview different FBS league exclusively for ESPN+, yet including each 136 FBS teams. The previews volition see 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC and Conference USA.

2024 recap

From a axenic prime standpoint, Boise State and UNLV lapped the tract successful 2024. The Broncos and Rebels were each top-40 teams, with BSU going 12-0 against non-College Football Playoff teams and UNLV going 11-1 against non-Boises. BSU rode Ashton Jeanty and by acold the conference's deepest roster to a respectable showing successful the archetypal ever 12-team CFP. (The Broncos are comfortably the favorites to suffice again this season.)

Everyone other successful the league ranked astatine slightest 49 spots little than BSU and UNLV, though 3 choky wins and a midseason blistery streak produced a coagulated eight-win run for Colorado State. The bottommost of the league was loaded with either programs laboring successful either their coach's archetypal play successful complaint (Nevada, SDSU, Wyoming), past play successful complaint (Utah State) oregon some (New Mexico).

Continuity table

The continuity array looks astatine each team's returning accumulation levels (offense, defence and overall), the fig of 2024 FBS starts from some returning and incoming players and the approximate fig of redshirt freshmen connected the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes marque it precise hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an progressively hard creation successful roster management, but immoderate teams propulsion it disconnected amended than others.

It's alternatively unfair that the lone MWC squad that ranks successful the apical 60 successful returning accumulation oregon returns astatine slightest 200 starts from past twelvemonth is the 1 that was already champion successful show. Boise State does person to regenerate an otherworldly superstar successful Jeanty, positive fantabulous players similar slot receiver Cam Camper, antiaircraft extremity Ahmed Hassanein, linebacker Andrew Simpson and nickel backmost Seyi Oladipo. But the Broncos person by acold the champion extent successful the league to thin on, and they apt inactive person the astir prima power, too, with the instrumentality of backmost Maddux Madsen, choky extremity Matt Lauter, borderline rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and cornerbacks A'Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby. Plus, aft surviving a large tally of violative enactment injuries, the Broncos instrumentality astir the full two-deep up front, and 2024's Jeanty deputies (namely, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines) could go stars with much opportunities.

Outside of BSU, we've fundamentally got 2 categories of teams: Those who instrumentality a coagulated magnitude and could expect to amended this twelvemonth (Wyoming, SJSU, Hawaii, SDSU, Air Force, Colorado State) and those who are going to look astir wholly antithetic this play (everyone else). UNLV could inactive beryllium a high-quality squad -- the roster features much erstwhile blue-chippers than immoderate powerfulness league outfits -- but caller caput manager Dan Mullen volition tract a lineup with 20 caller starters.

2025 projections

Perhaps not surprisingly, BSU starts retired acold up of the pack. Meanwhile, 2 of the teams astatine oregon adjacent the bottommost (Utah State and New Mexico) are breaking successful caller hires that I truly similar (Bronco Mendenhall and Jason Eck, respectively), and I would conjecture that 1 of the 2 could overachieve rather a spot retired of the gate. Just don't inquire maine which one.

One of the cardinal features of these preseason projections is conservatism. With the magnitude of uncertainty that exists this acold out, I cook rather a spot of variance into these projections, which is wherefore you spot Boise State with specified a commanding vantage and lone a 37% accidental of winning the title. I'd beryllium consenting to stake the likelihood are rather a spot higher than that, but the unexpected happens rather a spot successful this sport.

Five champion games of 2025

For each preview, I prime the 5 league games that diagnostic (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for some teams and (b) a projected scoring borderline nether 10 points. Because Boise State doesn't person a azygous crippled projected wrong azygous digits each year, however, we'll crook the rules slightly: Here are 3 games that acceptable those parameters, positive 2 immense non-conference opportunities.

UCLA astatine UNLV (Sept. 6). After an astir implicit roster teardown (the 2nd successful 3 years), UNLV could beryllium conscionable astir thing successful 2025. If Mullen and institution tin make immoderate contiguous traction and upside, this 1 could easy beryllium wrong scope for the Rebels. One mode oregon the other, we'll larn what we request to cognize astir the Rebels beauteous quickly.

Boise State astatine Notre Dame (Oct. 4). BSU has a truly appealing nonconference slate, 1 that features a Week 1 travel to USF, a Week 5 sojourn from Appalachian State, and this showcase game, a Week 6 travel to South Bend. Notre Dame's astir apt excessively bully to marque this 1 a immense upset opportunity, but we'll find retired however the Jeanty-less Broncos tin vie with top-10 level teams. That's a utile information point.

Air Force astatine UNLV (Oct. 11). While BSU is starting retired acold up of the pack, 4 teams person betwixt a 7-12% league rubric accidental above, and 2 of them conscionable successful Vegas successful Week 7. The Rebels could beryllium 6-0 aft this 1 (with a travel to BSU connected deck), but if this is much of a hard reset season, they could besides beryllium astir 3-3 oregon 2-4.

UNLV astatine Colorado State (Nov. 8). This 1 is the seventh consecutive CSU crippled presently projected wrong six points, per SP+. Like UNLV, the Rams could beryllium conscionable astir thing this season.

Fresno State astatine San Jose State (Nov. 29). Fresno State is undergoing a beauteous hard reset of its ain this year, but the endowment level inactive seems decent; SJSU, meanwhile, won't request that galore breaks to gain best-outside-Boise status.

Conference rubric (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Boise State Broncos

Head coach: Spencer Danielson (second afloat year, 15-3 overall)

2025 projection: 33rd successful SP+, 9.8 mean wins (7.1 successful the Mountain West)

Boise State was so the people of the Group of 5 past season, riding a Heisman finalist to heights not seen for much than a decade. The Broncos mislaid lone to eventual Big Ten champion Oregon successful the regular season, and it took a mates of instrumentality touchdowns for the Ducks to fend them off. And lone a mediocre commencement held them backmost against Penn State successful the CFP: Evidently rusty aft a first-round bye, they missed a tract extremity connected their opening thrust and allowed 2 touchdowns successful 3 minutes; that 17-point plaything made an awfully large quality successful an eventual 17-point loss. They yet outgained PSU by 25 yards, but the aboriginal harm was excessively much.

Time for different try. BSU boasts a sturdy NIL basal and each the programme enactment that allowed it to go the exemplary mid-major programme 15-20 years ago. If promotion and relegation were really a happening successful this sport, this would beryllium a top-division program. Instead, it's warring an expanding haves-versus-have-nots existent with goalposts further and further away. Still, the Broncos volition astir apt beryllium awfully bully again successful 2025. With the non-conference games referenced above, positive an early-season sojourn to what mightiness beryllium a resurgent Air Force, they'll play successful a bid of breathtaking aboriginal games, and with the prima powerfulness inactive astatine hand, they should beryllium up for the challenge.

With the cardinal returnees mentioned above, Spencer Danielson didn't request to spell chaotic successful the transportation portal. But helium did a bully occupation of adding proven MWC pieces similar moving backmost Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and antiaircraft tackle Dion Washington (Hawaii), breathtaking section FCS stars similar antiaircraft extremity Malakai Williams (Idaho) and information Derek Ganter Jr. (Eastern Washington) and, successful violative lineman Miles Walker (Ohio State) and cornerback Jaden Mickey (Notre Dame), a mates of erstwhile high-end recruits who couldn't rather find a spot astatine elite programs.

It's unusual to say, determination are much questions astir the receiving corps than the Jeanty-less moving backmost unit. Jeanty was 1 of one, but betwixt Sherrod, erstwhile prima enlistee Jambres Dubar and dynamite youngsters Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, BSU inactive has the champion RB country successful the conference. Gaines is peculiarly intriguing: He was mislaid for the play to wounded successful Game 3 aft gaining 200 yards successful conscionable 23 touches (20 carries, 3 catches). He could beryllium peculiar sooner than later. Without Camper, though, idiosyncratic unproven volition request to travel done astatine WR. Tight extremity Matt Lauter (619 yards, 7 TDs) is excellent, and Latrell Caples (473 yards, 5 TDs) is reliable, but Camper averaged 15.6 yards per catch, and nary returning wideout averaged much than 12.5.

If Maddux Madsen (3,018 yards, 23 TDs) has the walk catchers helium needs, it's hard to find concerns anyplace else. The defence inactive has immoderate of the MWC's champion playmakers (especially extremity Jayden Virgin-Morgan), and the violative enactment returns 10 of the 11 players who started astatine slightest erstwhile past season. Having Jeanty past play gave BSU a peculiarly precocious ceiling; astatine the least, BSU has by acold the highest floor of immoderate Group of 5 squad successful 2025.

UNLV Rebels

Head coach: Dan Mullen (first year)

2025 projection: 75th successful SP+, 7.8 mean wins (5.2 successful the Mountain West)

While Deion Sanders earned astir of the publicity 2 years agone erstwhile helium came to Colorado and flipped astir the full roster successful a azygous offseason, Barry Odom fundamentally did the aforesaid happening astatine UNLV, and with amended contiguous results. It took a twelvemonth for CU to make immoderate existent progress, but Odom's Rebels instantly surged from 5-7 to 9-4 successful 2023, past fielded what was, per SP+, their champion ever squad successful 2024.

Top 5 all-time UNLV teams, per SP+

1. 2024 (11-3, 36th successful SP+)

2. 1984 (11-2, 40th)

3. 1980 (7-4, 42nd)

4. 1979 (10-2, 53rd)

5. 1978 (7-4, 57th)

In 28 years earlier Odom's arrival, UNLV had averaged a dire 3.3 wins per play with 13 years astatine 2 oregon less wins and lone 3 astatine six wins oregon more. Then the Rebels won 20 successful 2 years nether Odom. Now he's astatine Purdue.

When you overachieve dramatically compared to your historical norm and past suffer the caput manager who engineered said overachievement, that's usually an ironclad guarantee of contiguous regression. But with transfers and contiguous rebuilds becoming much of the norm, past mightiness mean a small spot little than it utilized to. UNLV replaced Odom with conscionable astir the astir proven manager disposable -- successful 13 seasons astatine Mississippi State and Florida, Dan Mullen won astatine slightest 8 games 8 times with six SP+ top-15 finishes -- and he'll oversee a roster loaded with erstwhile blue-chippers and/or power-conference signees. Among them:

QB: Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan)

RB: Jaylon Glover (Utah) and Keyvone Lee (Penn State/Mississippi State)

WR: Daejon Reynolds (Florida/Pitt), Troy Omeire (Texas/Arizona State), JoJo Earle (TCU/Alabama), Koy Moore (LSU/Auburn/WKU), Taeshaun Lyons (Utah)

OL: Ben Christman (Ohio State/Kentucky), Malik McGowan (North Carolina)

DL: Chief Borders (Florida/Pitt), Tunmise Adeleye (Texas A&M/TXST), Jalen Lee (LSU)

LB: Elias Rudolph (Miami), Isaiah Patterson (UCLA)

DB: Denver Harris (Texas A&M/UTSA), Laterrance Welch (LSU/Arizona State), Jake Pope (Georgia)

By my count, determination are 16 erstwhile blue-chippers connected the roster. And astir nary of them person played with each different before. It's casual to spot however this each comes unneurotic beautifully, particularly connected offense, wherever Mullen teams person astir ever been coagulated and Mullen hired an intriguing young coordinator successful Corey Dennis. But this is besides a elephantine chemistry experimentation that could spell awry successful beauteous evident ways. The uncertainty makes UNLV 1 of the country's much intriguing teams; it besides makes them beauteous hard to task with confidence.

San Jose State Spartans

Head coach: Ken Niumatalolo (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 83rd successful SP+, 7.3 mean wins (5.3 successful the Mountain West)

Technically, San Jose State got worse successful Ken Niumatalolo's archetypal play successful charge. The Spartans had ranked 79th and 77th successful SP+, respectively, Brent Brennan's last 2 seasons (2022-23), past slipped to 92nd past season. But considering what could person happened, this felt beauteous impressive. SJSU ranked 129th successful returning production, and determination was immoderate uncertainty that came with hiring Niumatalolo, a vocation triple-option manager who promised not to tally the triple enactment successful San Jose. The discourtesy generated coagulated ratio with a quick-passing individuality that astir felt similar a sideline-to-sideline enactment offense; hiring coordinator Craig Stutzmann, who has some run-and-shoot and air-raid influences connected the résumé, seems similar a beauteous inspired choice. Holdover coordinator Derrick Odum's defense, meanwhile, pulled a decent bend-don't-break regular contempt having to commencement 22 antithetic players astatine slightest erstwhile (after having mislaid 8 starters from 2023). That they slipped lone from 88th to 92nd successful antiaircraft SP+ was a victory, and going 7-6, adjacent portion stumbling a spot successful SP+, felt similar a hellhole of a starting constituent for the Niu era.

By MWC standards, SJSU enjoys beauteous coagulated continuity heading into Year 2, returning its starring passer (Walker Eget) and rusher (Floyd Chalk IV), positive astir two-thirds of its O-line starts and 14 of the 22 defenders who started astatine slightest once. The receiving corps needed a makeover aft losing 5 of the 7 guys with astatine slightest 15 receptions, but Niumatalolo brought successful 4 receiver transfers (among them: Cal's Mason Starling, Purdue's Leland Smith and Sacramento State's Danny Scudero) and a brace of JUCOs. The secondary mislaid 4 of past year's apical 5 arsenic well, and Niumatalolo landed blue-chip transfers successful Caleb Presley (Washington) and Maliki Crawford (USC), positive 3 much JUCOs.

Where determination were holes, Niumatalolo seemed to capable them beauteous well. But MWC contention volition necessitate a fewer caller stars to emerge. If I had created an "SJSU's champion players" database astatine the extremity of past season, the apical 5 would person astir apt consisted of receiver Nick Nash, cornerback DJ Harvey, antiaircraft tackle Soane Toia, close defender Marist Talavou and antiaircraft extremity John Ward. They're each gone. The discourtesy inactive has Eget, Chalk (who averaged a dynamite 0.3 missed tackles per touch) and 400-yard receiver Matthew Coleman, and the defence inactive has stellar linebackers successful Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu and information Isiah Revis. But portion acquisition and continuity are acold higher than they were a twelvemonth ago, known prima powerfulness is acold lower. If offered that trade, a batch of coaches would astir apt instrumentality it, but we don't cognize everything we request to cognize astir SJSU's upside conscionable yet.

A mates of breaks distant from a run

Fresno State Bulldogs

Head coach: Matt Entz (first year)

2025 projection: 89th successful SP+, 6.5 mean wins (4.5 successful the Mountain West)

Matt Entz has been mentored by immoderate of the steadiest smaller-school entities successful caller history. He served arsenic antiaircraft coordinator for North Dakota State's Chris Klieman, Northern Iowa's Mark Farley and South Dakota's Bob Nielson (at Western Illinois), and helium spent 5 years arsenic caput manager of the astir unchangeable of each programs, NDSU. The Bison slipped a spot (by their standards) precocious successful his tenure, but fewer coaches person been much regularly exposed to and progressive successful high-end culture-building. And successful 2024, his lone twelvemonth arsenic USC linebackers coach, helium helped the Trojans leap from 105th to 48th successful antiaircraft SP+.

Fresno State has surely navigated done immoderate ups and downs successful the 21st period -- they went from 11-2 successful 2013 to 1-11 successful 2016 backmost to 10-4 successful 2017. And with Jeff Tedford's up-and-down wellness issues -- helium was hired successful some 2017 and 2022 and had to permission wrong 3 years some times -- determination hasn't been rather arsenic overmuch front-office stableness arsenic usual. Still, the Bulldogs person won double-digit games astatine slightest erstwhile nether 4 antithetic coaches this century. You tin triumph large successful Fresno.

This twelvemonth volition conscionable beryllium astir Entz figuring retired what helium has. Gone are past year's apical 2 passers, apical 3 receivers, apical 3 violative linemen and 11 of the 16 defenders with astatine slightest 300 snaps; among implicit 20 incoming transfers are a brace of 2,700-yard passers (Rice's E.J. Warner and Sacramento State's Carson Conklin), a erstwhile four-star moving backmost (Arizona's Rayshon Luke), a brace of high-three-star sophomore receivers (Maryland's Ezekiel Avit and Louisville's Jahlil McClain) and 1 of my favourite smaller-school transfers of the 2025 cycle, Drake's Finn Claypool (17.5 TFLs, 10 sacks past year).

Luke and returnees Elijah Gilliam and Bryson Donelson tin astir apt expect to transportation a dense load this twelvemonth -- USC aside, astir each of Entz's employers implicit the past 15 years person been large believers successful a carnal tally crippled and complementary shot -- and portion the defence doesn't person astonishing size, it has known playmakers similar borderline rusher Korey Foreman, country Al'zillion Hamilton and, potentially, Claypool. I don't cognize however overmuch contiguous advancement to expect here, but this feels similar a coagulated matrimony betwixt a unchangeable manager and stability-seeking program.

Air Force Falcons

Head coach: Troy Calhoun (29th year, 135-89 overall)

2025 projection: 94th successful SP+, 6.2 mean wins (4.1 successful the Mountain West)

In the past 8 afloat seasons, Troy Calhoun's Air Force Falcons person won astatine slightest 9 games 5 times and finished nether .500 3 times. Either the pieces are successful place, oregon they aren't. After a peculiarly awesome tally successful Calhoun's awesome tenure -- the Falcons won 40 games successful the 4 afloat seasons from 2019-23 -- they mislaid an immense magnitude of endowment from the 2023 squad and ranked past nationally successful returning accumulation with 1 of the lowest averages successful caller memory. It wasn't overmuch of a surprise, then, erstwhile they stunk retired large to commencement 2024. Projected to autumn from 45th to 88th successful SP+, they alternatively underachieved against projections by 13.0 points per crippled implicit 7 games and crashed to 1-6 and 125th.

A mislaid play became an encouraging 1 late: Over their past 5 games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an mean of 17.7 points per game, and aft a 20-3 nonaccomplishment to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their past 4 games, astir impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages inactive weren't great, but arsenic with Michigan, Air Force fundamentally saw its triumph full chopped successful fractional from the erstwhile play but someway inactive ended up successful a bully mood.

SP+ projections are inactive beauteous blimpish -- the Falcons are lone projected to emergence from 111th to 94th (and they erstwhile again don't person overmuch acquisition astatine QB) -- but they boast large acquisition successful the trenches and instrumentality prima defender Payton Zdroik (11 TFLs contempt injuries successful 2024). That should beryllium considered coagulated crushed for optimism.

Josh Johnson is astir apt to commencement astatine QB. With 1 commencement and 48 snaps past season, helium produced the astir "option quarterback!" walk illustration imaginable, throwing 3 interceptions with 3 completions implicit 25 yards ... successful conscionable 14 full passes.

Johnson besides had rushes of 15, 20 and 42 yards among his 13 non-sack carries. Senior slot backs Cade Harris and Kade Frew person immoderate big-play potential, too, and fullbacks Dylan Carson and Owen Allen are efficient, too. We won't cognize Johnson tin grip each the demands until we spot it, but if he's solid, Air Force astir apt volition beryllium too.

Colorado State Rams

Head coach: Jay Norvell (fourth year, 16-21 overall)

2025 projection: 97th successful SP+, 5.9 mean wins (3.9 successful the Mountain West)

We tin picture Colorado State's 2024 play successful 1 of 2 antithetic ways.

The archetypal way: Jay Norvell's Rams rode a midseason blistery streak and five-game winning streak to, incredibly, their archetypal vessel successful 8 years. This is simply a decent interpretation. CSU's defence was truly beardown during the winning streak, peaking by shutting down a beardown New Mexico discourtesy successful a 17-6 win. The modular slipped late, but CSU inactive bowled.

The 2nd way: CSU bushed atrocious teams and mislaid to bully teams. This is astir apt a amended interpretation.

CSU vs. SP+ apical 90 teams: 0-4 record, mean score: hostile 37.8, CSU 12.0

CSU vs. 91st oregon worse: 8-1 record, mean score: CSU 29.9, hostile 20.4

The Rams lone improved truthful overmuch successful 2024, but they created much large plays and less turnovers than opponents, they were reasonably assertive connected 3rd and 4th down, they stayed steadfast capable to support a unchangeable lineup, and they generated their champion grounds successful a decade. It wasn't the astir sustainable look for success, but Norvel didn't beryllium connected his laurels this offseason. He brought successful some smaller-school stars -- among them: receiver Tay Lanier (Northern Arizona), borderline rusher Paul Tangelo (St. Francis) and cornerback Lemondre Joe (Missouri State) -- and erstwhile blue-chippers similar receiver Kojo Antwi (Ohio State) and corners Jahari Rogers (SMU) and CJ Blocker (Utah). Veterans similar moving backmost Vann Schield (who has present gone from CSU-Pueblo to Colorado State to Northern Arizona backmost to Colorado State), antiaircraft extremity Moso'oipala Tuitele (New Mexico) and linebacker Jacob Ellis (Iowa State) should beryllium contiguous contributors too.

No 1 brought successful much FBS starts via the portal than CSU, and it was a beauteous captious thing. The discourtesy does instrumentality cardinal pieces similar backmost Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (2,796 yards, 14 TDs), receiver Armani Winfield and close tackle Aaron Karas, but a) Winfield is the lone of past year's apical 5 receivers returning, and b) the defence lone returns 1 starter. After a bully vessel breakthrough, you'd similar to deliberation CSU is poised to instrumentality different measurement forward. But with the turnover -- and the shaky underlying numbers -- I'm reasoning 2025 volition beryllium much astir conscionable trying to solidify gains by bowling again.

San Diego State Aztecs

Head coach: Sean Lewis (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 102nd successful SP+, 5.7 mean wins (3.7 successful the Mountain West)

We're conscionable going to chalk SDSU's 2024 play up to a good, old-fashioned Year 0 situation. Sean Lewis did immoderate miraculous enactment astatine Kent State -- the Golden Flashes person finished .500 oregon amended six times successful the past 37 years, and 3 came successful Lewis' five-year tenure (2018-22) -- but adjacent determination helium went 2-10 successful his archetypal season. He had his enactment chopped retired for him successful 2024, attempting to update the SDSU discourtesy from immoderate Brady Hoke was really trying to bash determination to thing resembling a 21st-century offense. He brought successful a batch of transfers, but thing took, and a defence that had collapsed successful 2023 didn't get immoderate amended either. SDSU fielded its worst team, with its worst record, since 2008. Bad stuff.

With his mulligan spent, the stakes emergence successful 2025. SDSU volition person a caller starting backmost and astir wholly caller accomplishment corps this fall, but that mightiness not beryllium a atrocious thing. Michigan Jayden Denegal appears to beryllium the favourite astatine quarterback, though erstwhile Central Michigan dual-threat Bert Emanuel Jr. is everlastingly intriguing; past year's apical 3 RBs and 7 of 8 WR/TEs are gone, but Coastal Carolina transportation Christian Washington and inferior Lucky Sutton could beryllium coagulated astatine moving back, and the operation of sophomores (and erstwhile prima recruits) Jordan Napier and Jerry McClure and Northwestern State transportation Myles Kitt-Denton look to person coagulated upside astatine receiver. The discourtesy enactment is experienced and enormous, though evidently it wasn't peculiarly effectual past year.

The defence enjoys beauteous coagulated continuity, though the anticipation has to beryllium that immoderate newcomers cram their mode into the lineup. Outside linebacker Trey White (21.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks) is 1 of the astir ascendant defenders successful the MWC, but he'll request help, and the anticipation has to beryllium that transfers similar antiaircraft tackle Malachi Finau (Hawaii), antiaircraft extremity Niles King (12 TFLs astatine Grand Valley State) and linebacker Mister Williams (13 TFLs astatine Incarnate Word) supply it beauteous quickly.

SDSU won astatine slightest 10 games 5 times successful six afloat seasons from 2015-21, but the triumph full has fallen for 3 consecutive years. Lewis earned immoderate payment of the doubt, but that volition tally retired with different mediocre season.

Wyoming Cowboys

Head coach: Jay Sawvel (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 105th successful SP+, 5.4 mean wins (3.6 successful the Mountain West)

For astir of Craig Bohl's 10 seasons successful complaint astatine Wyoming, you could number connected the defense: The Cowboys averaged a 40.6 antiaircraft SP+ ranking from 2017-23 and finished .500 oregon amended for 7 consecutive (full) seasons.

Naturally, erstwhile Bohl retired aft 2023, antiaircraft coordinator Jay Sawvel was promoted to regenerate him. And past helium promoted a Bohl -- linebackers manager Aaron Bohl -- to regenerate him astatine coordinator. This each makes sense. But Wyoming inactive tumbled from 9-4 to 3-9. The discourtesy vanished, posting the school's worst violative SP+ standing since the 1940s, and the defence crashed to 96th successful antiaircraft SP+. It improved precocious successful the season, but it past mislaid 11 of the 14 players with 250-plus snaps.

Sawvel inked 13 transfers (plus 3 JUCOs) successful an effort to get the defence backmost connected track, and determination was a beauteous communal taxable among them: Eight of the 13 transfers were from FCS oregon lower. End Brayden Wilson (Weber State), OLB Brayden Johnson (Oklahoma Baptist) and information Enock Sibomana (NDSU) are astir apt the astir dynamic of the bunch, but rather a fewer of them are going to person to instrumentality if Wyoming is to person immoderate extent whatsoever. Wilson, FAU transportation Chisom Ifeanyi and returnees Tyce Westland and Ben Florentine could signifier the basal of a coagulated line, but the linebacking corps is wholly starting over, and nary returning DBs person distinguished themselves.

The discourtesy has coagulated continuity, for amended oregon worse. Kaden Anderson took implicit astatine backmost precocious successful his redshirt freshman play and was fantabulous against New Mexico (against different opponents, not truthful much), and each but 1 regular O-lineman returns. The accomplishment corps has each the size you could perchance privation -- choky extremity John Michael Gyllenborg (6-foot-5, 250) is excellent, QB-turned-TE Evan Svoboda (also 6-foot-5, 250) is athletic, and moving backmost Sam Scott (6-foot-2, 230) tin bounce disconnected defenders betwixt the tackles. But nary of this size prevented Wyoming from gaining zero oregon less yards connected 36% of snaps past twelvemonth (119th successful FBS), and large plays were predictably hard to travel by. Anderson and spell way specializer Jaylen Sargent could signifier an absorbing tandem, but the champion happening this discourtesy has going for it is simply a truly debased bar.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Head coach: Timmy Chang (fourth year, 13-25 overall)

2025 projection: 108th successful SP+, 5.5 mean wins (3.4 successful the Mountain West)

At Bishop Gorman precocious schoolhouse successful Las Vegas, Honolulu-born Micah Alejado threw 125 vocation touchdowns with conscionable 4 INTs. He was MaxPreps' nationalist inferior of the twelvemonth (he had a three-star ranking according to ESPN's scouts). Only his 5-foot-10, 180-pound stature kept his connection database successful check. And successful a tiny illustration past season, helium lit up the imagination. In Hawaii's play finale against New Mexico, helium threw for 469 yards with 5 touchdowns, nary picks, nary sacks and 54 rushing yards. Was New Mexico's defence dreadful? Yes. Was Alejado inactive incredible? Also, yes. He was astir Timmy Chang-esque. (Hawaii's caput manager is 3rd connected the all-time FBS passing yardage list.)

Leading receivers Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle return, arsenic bash 4 linemen with starting experience, and moving backs Landon Sims and Cam Barfield are coagulated pass-catchers. Depth could beryllium a large contented -- nary different returning wideout caught much than six passes, and the full second-string O-line mightiness dwell of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. But portion Hawaii hasn't ranked higher than 83rd successful violative SP+ since 2019, we caught a glimpse of thing breathtaking precocious past season.

We besides caught a glimpse of a semi-competent defense. In Dennis Thurman's archetypal play arsenic coordinator, Hawaii jumped from 121st to 89th successful antiaircraft SP+ acknowledgment to big-play prevention and coagulated third-down work. Of the 20 players with 200-plus snaps past season, 11 return, including walk rushers Elijah Robinson and Jackie Johnson III, run-defending linebackers Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis and nickel backmost Elijah Palmer. Chang besides did immoderate absorbing portal enactment by adding tackle De'jon Benton (USC via New Mexico), extremity Qwyn Williams (Ohio Dominican) and information Tim Malo (Brown), among others. On paper, this is the deepest and astir proven Hawaii defence successful a while. (Granted, that bar's low.)

SP+ isn't programmed to overreact to a one-game QB illustration similar I am, but it inactive gives Hawaii 50-50 likelihood of reaching vessel eligibility for the archetypal clip nether Chang. If Alejado is the existent woody and Hawaii overachieves, past abruptly a tossup-heavy docket -- 1 apt win, 3 apt losses and eight projected one-score games (including a Week 0 sojourn from Stanford) -- starts to look awfully conducive to a large year. Alejado makes Hawaii a immense wildcard successful 2025.

Just looking for a way to 6-6

Utah State Aggies

Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall (first year)

2025 projection: 119th successful SP+, 4.3 mean wins (2.7 successful the Mountain West)

In the past 2 writeups, I talked astir young QBs generating excitement by torching New Mexico. That unsocial tells you that Bronco Mendenhall's lone play successful complaint astatine UNM wasn't perfect. His Lobos ranked 132nd successful antiaircraft SP+, which capped them astatine 5-7 contempt an breathtaking offense.

Still, 5-7 was the Lobos' champion grounds since 2016. After taking 2 seasons disconnected pursuing a stint astatine Virginia, Mendenhall proved helium tin inactive beryllium a beauteous originative and resourceful coach. Then helium near UNM to instrumentality to his location state. He takes implicit a Utah State programme that, aft winning astatine slightest 9 games 5 times successful 9 afloat seasons from 2012-21, has suffered 3 consecutive losing seasons.

Mendenhall's resourcefulness volition person to travel successful handy. USU's discourtesy returns nary 1 who started much than six games, and the defence returns conscionable 3 starters. (On the agleam side, the defence was utterly dreadful.) Mendenhall brought successful astir 30 transfers (including six from New Mexico), positive 8 JUCOs, six connected defense. Defensive tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr., linebacker John Miller and erstwhile UNM cornerback Noah Avinger are coagulated gathering blocks, but the discourtesy mightiness person much imaginable retired of the gross acknowledgment to a backfield of backmost Bryson Barnes (who shined precocious successful 2024) and transportation moving backs Javen Jacobs (UNM) and Miles Davis (BYU). Of course, the enactment is simply a full blank slate.

There is simply a dire deficiency of known quantities here, and glimpses of prime could beryllium sporadic. But Mendenhall has proven he'll coax immoderate helium tin retired of a roster, and a docket with six opponents projected 94th oregon worse successful SP+ should inactive supply immoderate wins.

Nevada Wolf Pack

Head coach: Jeff Choate (second year, 3-10 overall)

2025 projection: 124th successful SP+, 4.1 mean wins (2.4 successful the Mountain West)

It looked similar Nevada had thing going for a infinitesimal successful 2024, Jeff Choate's archetypal play successful charge. The Wolf Pack started retired 3-4, astir knocking disconnected CFP-bound SMU successful the opener and upsetting Oregon State and Troy. They overachieved against SP+ projections by 11.8 points per crippled successful this span and concisely jumped to 99th successful SP+.

They past mislaid their past six games. They showed good successful a 28-21 nonaccomplishment to Boise State but mislaid 3 different games by astatine slightest 17 points and tumbled backmost to 117th successful SP+. And immoderate lingering consciousness of momentum was enactment to remainder with the nonaccomplishment of violative coordinator Matt Lubick and astir 18 starters.

Choate did coagulated portal work, landing 7 players with FBS starting acquisition and intriguing FCS transfers similar violative linemen Hadine Diaby (Tennessee State) and Jack Foster (Idaho), antiaircraft extremity Sam Cook (SE Missouri State), linebacker Nakian Jackson (Sacramento State), cornerback Murvin Kenion III (Sacramento State) and ball-hawking information Hayden McDonald (Columbia). If transfers prop up the defence and the pitch-and-catch combo of backmost Chubba Purdy, seasoned slot antheral Marcus Bellon and transfers Nick Rempert (North Texas) and Jordan Brown (Texas Tech) clicks, the Pack could again astonishment arsenic they did successful the archetypal fractional of 2024. But erstwhile you've gone 7-30 implicit the past 3 seasons, you've mislaid the payment of the doubt. I loved the Choate prosecute -- helium was bully arsenic Montana State's caput coach, served 3 seasons arsenic Texas' antiaircraft co-coordinator and has each the MWC acquisition you could perchance want. But it inactive seems similar helium has a upland to ascent successful Reno.

New Mexico Lobos

Head coach: Jason Eck (first year)

2025 projection: 130th successful SP+, 3.6 mean wins (2.2 successful the Mountain West)

I'm a sucker for a Big Sky occurrence story. That means I'm a large Jason Eck guy. Idaho had won conscionable 15 games successful 4 seasons backmost successful FCS erstwhile Eck took over, but successful 3 years helium led the Vandals to 26 wins and 3 playoff appearances (two quarterfinals). The erstwhile Montana State and South Dakota State OL manager instantly crafted a coagulated civilization and breathtaking product.

Now helium takes connected an adjacent bigger challenge: New Mexico has had 1 winning play successful 17 years. Again, going 5-7 past twelvemonth nether Mendenhall was an accomplishment.

If Eck finds speedy success, it volition beryllium due to the fact that of Big Sky guys: He brought successful 11 Big Sky transfers, including backmost Jack Layne (Idaho), a thrilling RB trio of Damon Bankston (Weber State), Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) and Deshaun Buchanan (Idaho) -- combined: 2,740 yards (6.8 per carry) past play -- and astir apt Idaho's 2 champion defenders successful extremity Keyshawn James-Newby and linebacker Jaxton Eck. New Mexico should person large RBs (he besides brought successful Sam Houston's DJ McKinney), and betwixt defender Richard Pearce, tackle Isaiah Sillemon and 4 elder FCS transfers, the enactment should astatine slightest beryllium large and senior-heavy. The passing crippled is simply a mystery, but you tin spot a carnal individuality forming there.

Veteran Spence Nowinsky takes implicit a defence that seems to person upside astatine borderline rusher (with James-Newby, returnee Gabriel Lopez and Vanderbilt transportation Darren Agu) and linebacker, wherever Dimitri Johnson is the astir proven returnee. I person nary thought astir the secondary, but astatine slightest the bar's incredibly debased aft 2 consecutive seasons of ranking 128th oregon worse successful antiaircraft SP+.