All eyes on Greater Manchester ahead of mayoral election

ByProfessor Andrew Russell

University of Liverpool and former head of politics at the University of Manchester

Voters across Greater Manchester will head to the polls on Thursday to elect a new mayor for the city region.

It is a very important role - only the prime minister and the mayor of London have more power in English politics.

After Andy Burnham was elected in the Makerfield by-election last month, paving his way to Downing Street, he automatically had to resign as Greater Manchester's mayor.

Labour's candidate to replace him is the current leader of Manchester City Council, Bev Craig.

She faces a tougher task in the other nine boroughs. While Labour has often won elections across the city region, the party's level of support varies.

For instance, at a time when Labour held 95 of 96 council seats on Manchester City Council, eight of the 10 Greater Manchester boroughs voted leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum. This may well give hope to Reform UK, for example.

Craig, who has led the city council since 2021, has filled big shoes before. Her predecessor, Sir Richard Leese, was in charge for more than a quarter of a century, taking in an era including Britpop, the 2002 Commonwealth Games and the soaring city skyscape.

Burnham became the inaugural elected mayor for Greater Manchester in 2017 and was re-elected twice.

Each time Burnham outpolled his party, gaining a majority of votes in all boroughs. In 2017 he even managed to defeat his Conservative opponent - the leader of Trafford Council - in his own backyard.

In this year's local elections, Labour came under fire from both the left and right, with Reform UK and the Greens making ground. The Liberal Democrats also performed strongly, regaining control of Stockport thanks to gaining seats from the Conservatives.

For more than a year, Reform has led the national polls and on the back of sweeping victories in those local elections two months ago, their supporters would have been extremely confident of winning the Greater Manchester mayoralty.

However, their by-election fortunes also stalled in two Greater Manchester by-elections this year.

Hannah Spencer took Gorton and Denton for the Greens while Burnham romped to victory in Makerfield for Labour.

This certainly casts doubts about Reform's ability to cash in.

Pressure from Restore Britain for the radical-right vote makes it harder for Reform to pitch for floating voters that would take them to the position of government-in-waiting.

Meanwhile, with leader Nigel Farage embroiled in controversy about his finances, the party's standing in national opinion polls has not just hit a ceiling but fallen.

With Farage no longer an MP and fighting his own by-election in Clacton in Essex - he is hamstrung when it comes to devoting as much time and energy to Greater Manchester.

The Conservatives have enjoyed a Kemi Badenoch bounce of late, but came a distant second in the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Will the rise of Reform and Restore dilute their share of the vote this time around?

And while the Lib Dems consistently do well in Stockport and in parts of Manchester, they have struggled to cut through elsewhere.

The Greens will certainly be buoyed by their stunning success in Gorton and Denton.

They were helped by traditional Labour voters unhappy with the direction of their party under Sir Keir Starmer.

But with a new man in Number 10, could those on the left of the Labour Party return to the fold and support Bev Craig?

Although Burnham's legacy as Greater Manchester mayor is not without criticism there are several aspects of his inheritance that seem untouchable.

Opponents have lined up to pledge to maintain - rather than undo - much of his record.

His reforms of the transport network, as well as investment in towns including Altrincham and Stockport, are widely supported, for example.

On the flipside, Labour could still be dogged by ongoing public concern and anger over grooming gangs, while Burnham's proposals for a congestion charge - which were eventually scrapped - proved unpopular.

There is also the possibility that, in this Labour-dominated region, voters might just plump for change.

Were Labour to lose this week's election in his geographical heartland, it would be seen as an early blow for Burnham so early in his premiership.

Equally, though, his supporters would point to his personal appeal seemingly outstripping his party, connecting with parts of the region his party cannot reach.

Whatever happens on Thursday, the city region will be very close to the heart of power given the location of Number 10 North in the heart of Manchester.

Not for the first time of late, all eyes will certainly be on the city.

Greater Manchester mayoral election candidates (in alphabetical order by surname)

Clacton by-election candidates (in alphabetical order by surname)