All of a sudden, Democrats are talking about Gaza and the Israel arms pause

For the longest time, Democrats have sounded like Susan Collins talking about Donald Trump when it came to Israel’s actions in Gaza: they wring their hands, express great dismay, and then do little to stop a catastrophic bombardment. Then they voted to give aid to Israel anyway.

Tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians have now died in the packed region, most of them women and children.

Now, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to attack Rafah seem to have given Democrats — not just President Joe Biden — the fortitude to draw a line in the sand.

This week, President Biden’s administration paused its shipping of 1,800 bombs weighing around 2,000lbs (907kg) and 1,700 bombs weighing 500lbs (227kg) to Israel. The shipment was due to arrive in the Middle Eastern country last week.

The White House seemed to know that the move would cause a huge controversy on Capitol Hill. Indeed, when Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about the pause, he carefully chose his words, noting that the US commitment to Israel remains “ironclad”.

“We are currently reviewing some near-term security assistance shipments in the context of the ongoing events in Rafah,” he said.

When further pressed, he added: “We’re assessing. We have not made any final decisions on this yet, but to answer your questions, yes, there are some things we are taking a closer look at.”

It seems that the Biden administration’s actions helped Senate Democrats who previously criticised the Israeli government’s actions find their nerve.

In February, amid the first reports that Israel was considering attacking Rafah, Senator Elizabeth Warren told The Independent that Israel “should not be attacking Rafah, period,” but when pressed if that would affect her vote on the bill to provide aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, she said, “Right now, the security package is about getting money to Ukraine.” In the end, only three Senators in the Democratic caucus voted against the foreign aid package.

But when we spoke to her about the shipments, Warren praised the Biden administration’s decision.

“The President’s actions are a reminder that the United States always conditions its foreign aid,” she told The Independent. Warren added the pause served as a reminder to Israel’s government that the United States would no longer be a passive observer.

“We have been clear our position on both a two-state solution and the importance of access to humanitarian relief,” she said. “Benjamin Netanyahu ignores the United States at his peril.”

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin became the first Democratic Senator to support a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas weeks ago — but he still voted to provide aid to Israel when push came to shove.

However, on Wednesday he said the Biden administration’s actions were a positive step, given Israel’s plans to attack Rafah.

“I think the administration has started doing that — holding some of the equipment and supplies — until they have an assurance [about what will happen in Rafah],” the Illinois Democrat told The Independent.

There are two primary pathways that could lead to a limit or block on US aid to Israel.

The first, championed by progressive Senator Peter Welch, is the Leahy Law. Under the legislation, the US government cannot aid foreign security forces found committing a “gross violations of human rights.” The primary caveat of this law is that it does not apply to countries at large, but rather individual military units.

Welch told The Independent he wants the Leahy Law applied to the Israeli military. But he also sees value in the second option: the National Security Memorandum, known as NSM-20.

The NSM-20 memo will reveal the results of an investigation into potential Israeli war crimes in Gaza. It is now expected sometime next week, Welch told The Independent, after its initial release date of Wednesday was delayed.

If the report finds that Israel has violated international humanitarian law during its bombardment of Gaza, the Biden administration would need to reconsider foreign aid wholesale.

Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland — who has said in the past that Israel is committing a war crime by deliberately withholding food from children in Gaza — told The Independent that the investigation offered an important benchmark.

“This report will be a test of the Biden administration’s credibility as to whether or not they’re willing to look at all the facts and apply the law to the war in Gaza,” he said.

Elsewhere, some Democrats said there are limits to America’s ability to pressure Israel or control its actions.

“We have some influence, but our views are not determinative on the Israeli by the Israeli government,” Senator Chris Murphy told The Independent. “I think there’s too often a perception here that Israel will do what the United States wants them to do. That’s just not true.”

Most Democrats have attempted not to undercut Biden when it comes to Israel, even if they have other objections. And the fact Ukraine aid was tied to Israel aid in a legislative package made it much harder for them to condition aid to Israel, given Republican hostility to Ukraine.

But it appears Biden’s decision has given Democrats the permission to finally say there can be conditions on aid. That represents a huge change, even if it looks from the outside like baby steps.