Americas Scourge: An Ageing Elderly Population

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Opinion by Joseph Chamie (portland, us)
Monday, February 03, 2025
Inter Press Service

PORTLAND, US, Feb 03 (IPS) - Many Americans, especially the wealthy and successful, have discovered that the US is facing the scourge of an ageing elderly population that is seriously threatening the nation’s prosperity, economic growth and international standing.

The youthful, dynamic and innovative population of the recent past is being rapidly replaced by an unproductive ageing elderly population that is becoming increasingly costly and dependent on the government for support and care.

The demographic sign posts are clear. The average age of America’s population, for example, shot up from 30 years in 1950 to close to 40 years today. As the scourge endures, the country's average age is expected to reach 42 years by 2050 and 45 years before the end of the century (Table 1).

In contrast, the average age of Nigeria’s population, which is the largest in Africa, has remained at 18 years or less since 1950. Moreover, by midcentury, Nigeria’s average age is expected to be a robust 24 years.

In addition to average age, the proportion of America’s elderly population, currently defined unfortunately as those aged 65 years or older, has increased from 8 percent in 1950 to 18 percent today. And by mid-century, a staggering one in four Americans is expected to be elderly according to today’s antiquated definition.

The number of elderly in America is expected to surge from today’s 60 million to more than 80 million by 2050. Also, the number of Americans who are 85 years or older is expected to more than double over the next several decades. Even more troubling, the number of people aged 100 or older is projected to more than triple by mid-century.

Some of the consequences of America’s ageing elderly population include increased health and medical care costs, shrinkage of the labor force, unsustainable financial strains approaching insolvency, rising demands for costly long-term care and financial assistance, less innovation and fewer business startups, reduction in technological adoption, and slowdowns in the nation’s vital economy due to reduced spending by the elderly.

Expenditures on the various woke socialist programs for the elderly, such as Social Security and Medicare, are devouring close to half of the country’s federal budget and contributing to the national debt, which is on course to exceed its record as a share of the economy in the next two years.

The return on investment (ROI) on those costly socialist programs for the elderly is negative, thereby incurring considerable losses for the country.

Stated simply and honestly, as America’s top economists have repeatedly warned, the government's spending on the woke socialist programs for the elderly is a terrible economic investment for America. The ROI on government expenditures needs to be positive.

Also as a result of America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population, its working age population has not kept pace with the growth of the elderly. In particular, the critical number of people in the working ages per elderly person has decreased dramatically. Whereas in 1940 there were 42 people in the working ages per elderly person, by 1950 that ratio declined to 17. Today the ratio has totally collapsed to 3 and by 2050 is projected to decline to 2 people in the working ages per elderly person (Figure 1).

Instead of wasting taxpayer dollars on the ageing elderly population, those dollars need to be invested in young Americans who will enthusiastically participate in the labor force. That investment will strengthen America’s economy as well as sustain its primacy in the world.

The fundamental cause of America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population is a low fertility rate. And the country’s low fertility rate is due to women in America choosing to have few or no children.

Unfortunately, America’s fertility rate has collapsed from nearly four births per woman around 1960 to approximately 1.6 births per woman today. The current fertility level is well below the needed replacement level of about two births per woman.

Coupled with the country’s tragically low fertility rate is the worrisome increase in life expectancies among the elderly, especially among the oldest old. Regrettably, America’s elderly are living longer than ever before.

Whereas in 1950 life expectancy at age 65 years was a reasonable 14 years, today it has reached 20 years. Unfortunately, life expectancies of the elderly are expected to continue increasing throughout the remainder of the 21st century.

Fortunately, however, the US president can take actions, Congress can adopt policies and the Supreme Court can render decisions to address and even reverse America’s scourge of an ageing elderly population.

The government should incentivize, promote and encourage young women to have numerous children. Also, they need to emphasize the enormous benefits of families with many children for America’s future.

Policies, programs and legal decisions should facilitate women having numerous children and remain working. Moreover, women with numerous children should receive special consideration and priority in employment, government service and university admissions.

The country’s unproductive nursing homes for the elderly need to be shut down with the elderly currently residing in those institutions returned to their homes and families. Instead of relying on the government’s woke socialist programs for the elderly, families should be responsible for caring for their old and feeble relatives as was the case throughout much of America’s history.

Transferring the costs and care for the elderly from the government to the families of the elderly will rein in the federal budget. It will also reduce the growing and excessive tax burden on hard-working American taxpayers.

Such a transfer will also encourage young women as well as men across America to have numerous children in order to ensure that they will have the needed care and support when they become elderly.

In addition to criminals, illegal migrants aged 65 years or older should be given high priority for return to their home countries. America should also limit legal immigration to healthy, heterosexual men below the age of 30 years and fertile, heterosexual women below the age of 25 years. Doing so will increase the size of the country’s labor force as well as increase America’s low birth rate.

Regarding the many elderly people relying on government funds and assistance, they will be required to join the labor force and become financially independent. Many of them can take over the jobs of the deported illegal migrants as well as provide childcare services. Doing so will help maintain the size of America’s labor force, assist families with young children, contribute to lowering poverty levels among the elderly and also reduce the government’s financial burden on the highly unprofitable programs for the elderly.

Given the troubling increased longevity of both men and women across America, the traditional, antiquated definition of the elderly, which is persons 65 years or older, must be changed in order to be in line with the demographic and economic realities of the 21st century.

With the backing of the Supreme Court, Congress should pass legislation redefining America’s elderly population as men and women who are aged 80 years or older. Such a definitional change would reduce the number of elderly people in America to slightly less than a quarter of its current size (Figure 2).

Such a common sense and desirable change in the definition of the elderly will significantly increase the size of the country’s labor force. It will also raise the eligibility age for Social Security, Medicare and related programs for the elderly and hence reduce the unprofitable expenditures on those programs.

In sum, the scourge of an ageing elderly population is spreading across the country and undermining America's economy, prosperity and global standing. In order to halt and reverse the spread of this dreadful scourge, the president must take action with Congress passing legislation and the Supreme Court rendering decisions that will return America to the wonderful, youthful, productive, energetic populations of its recent past. It’s time to make America young again!

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, "Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials".

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