Australia's climate visa: A model for sinking islands?

In the tiny South Pacific nation of just over 10,000 people, one in three citizens has already entered the ballot for a world-first climate visa which would allow them to permanently migrate to Australia. 

Tuvalu is classified as being extremely vulnerable to climate change and rising seas and Funafuti, Tuvalu’s capital, is a thin strip of land, with a vast lagoon on one side and the Pacific Ocean on the other. It is home to half the country’s citizens. 

But with rising tides and worsening climate change, flooding has become routine and scientists warn the entire island could be underwater within 35 years.

For a country where 70% of people are between the ages of 15 and 64, the threat is existential.

A model for climate change

In November 2023, responding to Tuvalu's call for help, Australia signed the Falepili Union Treaty. The agreement covers climate cooperation, dignified mobility and shared security. After months of domestic consultations, the treaty is now in force.

70% of people in Tuvalu are between the ages of 15 and 64 and are already facing floods regularlyImage: Ashley Cooper/Global Warming Images/picture alliance

From 2025, a so-called "special mobility pathway" has opened up that allows up to 280 Tuvaluans each year to live, work or study in Australia.

Protecting Tuvalu's identity

The treaty says it recognizes the deep ancestral ties that Tuvaluans have to the land and sea. It commits to preserving Tuvalu's statehood and sovereignty even if its land becomes uninhabitable. 

The treaty grants Tuvaluans "freedom for unlimited travel" to and from Australia. 

In a nod to regional security, Australia has also agreed to assist Tuvalu in case of a major natural disaster, a public health emergency of international concern, or military aggression.

How will the Falepili Union work?

Each year, a secret ballot will select 280 people who are over the age of 18, hold a Tuvaluan passport and were either born in Tuvalu or have a parent or grandparent born there. 

The Falepili Union Treaty was agreed upon in 2023 and implementation will start in July 2025Image: Lukas Coch/AAP/IMAGO

Tuvaluans have historically relied on Australia and New Zealand for support. This program is specifically for those without comparable options. People who already hold New Zealand citizenship, for example, are ineligible — underscoring the intent of the visa to prioritize those most in need.

The visa is also open to people with disabilities, chronic health conditions or special needs — categories often excluded from other Australian visas.

Already more than 3,000 Tuvaluans have applied for the first round. At 280 spots per year, that means an applicant today could face a wait of over 10 years. However there is a provision in the treaty to adjust those numbers if the need arises. 

What makes a 'climate visa' different?

Most visas tie migration to work or study requirements. Until now that was true for Tuvaluans too. 

Under the Falepili Union Treaty, people who win the ballot can move freely, without being locked into a job or course.

As Jane McAdam, a law professor and expert in refugee law at the University of New South Wales, explains, "for some people it might be an opportunity to get their children a great education in Australia. For others, it will be a job opportunity, maybe sending remittances home." McAdam welcomes the scheme, calling it a reliable safety net for Tuvaluans.

The permanent residency path comes with benefits such as subsidized education, medical insurance, disability insurance, family tax benefits, childcare subsidies and youth allowances.

What is the difference between a refugee and climate migrant?

Traditionally climate disasters have fallen into a legal gap. For example, almost 30 years ago Australia’s High Court ruled that those fleeing natural catastrophes could not qualify as refugees.

The low-lying South Pacific island nation of about 10,000 people has been classified as ‘extremely vulnerable’ to climate change Image: Mario Tama/Getty Images

The lack of international recognition continues to have consequences, as a 2022 case in New Zealand showed: A deaf Tuvaluan man argued he could not safely return home because he would not hear evacuation warnings during disasters. Yet the courts denied him protection.

In the past year, Tuvalu experienced at least two major weather-related disasters: drought and flooding. 

Kamal Amakrane, who heads the UN’s Global Centre for Climate Mobility, says the Falepili Union Treaty marks a shift in responses to climate change refugees. 

"This isn't a visa for climate refugees," he explains. "It's a climate mobility pathway." Unlike refugee status, which is granted for things like forced displacement after an armed conflict or political persecution, this approach recognizes climate change as a factor. It preserves agency and dignity, giving people the time to build resilience before deciding if they need to move.

Other countries tend to act only after climate disasters strike. Argentina, for instance, launched a humanitarian visa in 2023 for people in Latin America hit by climate shocks — but only once they had already been displaced.

Could ‘climate visas’ be implemented by other states?

Tuvalu is not alone. The Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Kiribati face similar threats and could also benefit from regional climate-mobility frameworks.

The US has long operated Compacts of Free Association with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau, allowing their citizens to live and work freely in the US. But these arrangements offer little access to public benefits and expose migrants to the risks of poverty.

Other regional plans are being drawn up. In 2023 ministers from African member states endorsed the Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment, and Climate Change, pledging coordinated responses for people who want or need to move due to climate change.  

But at the same time, the crisis is also deepening. Between 2008 and 2018, over 80% of new disaster displacements worldwide happened in the Asia-Pacific — with Tuvalu right in the center of this risk zone. 

Experts argue that most people still hope to stay put if possible. "People do not want to leave the place they call home," Amakrane says. "So how do we help people stay where they belong? Enable their positive adaptation journey.”