Betting the 2025 Belmont Stakes: What you need to know to make a smart race wager

7 months ago 12

Katherine Terrell and Anita Marks

Jun 6, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

It looks similar a three-horse contention successful the 157th moving of the Belmont Stakes connected Saturday.

The Belmont Stakes volition diagnostic a uncommon Triple Crown rematch of this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners. Kentucky Derby victor Sovereignty volition instrumentality connected Preakness victor Journalism aft Sovereignty's trainer elected to skip the Preakness Stakes 3 weeks ago. Baeza, who ran 3rd successful the Kentucky Derby and besides skipped the Preakness, volition beryllium backmost for different effort against some horses.

Only 8 horses are entered successful the race, which volition beryllium tally astatine 1 1/4th miles astatine Saratoga Race Course. This is the 2nd consecutive twelvemonth the contention volition beryllium tally astatine Saratoga astatine a shorter distance. Belmont Park, which has hosted astir each variation of the contention since 1905, is presently undergoing renovations.

While the main absorption volition beryllium connected the 1-2-3 finishers of the Kentucky Derby, Rodriguez, a newcomer to the Triple Crown rail, volition besides gully immoderate attention.

Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, Rodriguez was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby owed to a ft issue. Baffert told the Daily Racing Form that helium besides bypassed the Preakness due to the fact that Rodriguez needed much prep clip aft the contented was resolved.

If either Journalism oregon Sovereignty wins, determination volition beryllium an accidental for a Kentucky Derby and Belmont double, oregon Preakness and Belmont double. Eleven horses person won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, portion 18 horses person won the Preakness and Belmont, the past equine being Afleet Alex, who came successful 3rd successful the 2005 Kentucky Derby but past won the adjacent 2 races.

Betting the Belmont

by Katherine Terrell

A tiny tract and a dense favourite similar Journalism won't supply a large return, truthful the main absorption of this betting strategy volition beryllium to look for value, if that's possible. Journalism surely seems similar the equine to bushed successful this field, though helium is the lone equine who volition tally 3 races successful 5 weeks.

None of the apical 3 are going to supply large odds, and it's apt that Journalism oregon Baeza volition spell disconnected arsenic the favorite, depending connected what bettors believe. Some mightiness judge that Journalism is the existent people of the tract and volition triumph nary substance what, portion others mightiness spot Baeza arsenic an ascending endowment who volition lone get amended successful his sixth commencement (and is much rested than Journalism, who has present finished up of him twice).

There's besides the Sovereignty factor: Was his triumph implicit Journalism successful the Kentucky Derby a effect of their respective trips, oregon is helium genuinely the champion of the three? Will helium person capable gait successful this tract to adjacent into this race?

The apt winner: Journalism. Value and remainder are the reasons to stake against him, but if the Preakness convinced you, enactment a ample stake connected him to triumph again.

The somewhat amended likelihood bet: Put Baeza oregon Sovereignty connected apical of Journalism successful exactas, with Rodriguez and Hill Road filling retired trifecta bets.

Long changeable bet: Rodriguez. Journalism was intelligibly the champion implicit Rodriguez successful March, erstwhile Rodriguez finished 3rd down him successful the San Felipe Stakes. But if you're looking for a contender with immoderate benignant of price, support successful caput that Baffert and Smith person some won the Belmont Stakes 3 times (once unneurotic erstwhile Justify won the Triple Crown successful 2018).

Belmont notes and favourite plays

By Anita Marks

The 3rd limb of equine racing's Triple Crown has arrived. No equine volition beryllium capable to assertion each 3 wins this year, but determination are inactive immoderate large storylines heading into Saturday. Let's dive in.

For the 2nd twelvemonth successful a row, the Belmont volition beryllium tally astatine a region of 1 1/4 miles arsenic opposed to the accepted 1 1/2-mile trip. Saratoga volition erstwhile again beryllium the tract of the contention with Belmont Park inactive undergoing renovations. With precise small velocity successful this contention and lone 1 legit closer, the shorter region makes handicapping much difficult.
The 2 powerhouses conscionable again! Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby but did not contention successful the Preakness successful an effort to prioritize semipermanent wellness and hole for the Belmont Stakes. He has had 5 weeks disconnected to fastener and reload for the past leg. Journalism won the Preakness and volition present beryllium moving his 3rd contention successful 5 weeks. How overmuch state does helium person near successful his tank?
Could Baeza propulsion disconnected the upset? He finished 3rd successful the Kentucky Derby and was runner-up to Journalism successful the Santa Anita Derby. Baeza's dam, Puca, besides produced 2023 Kentucky Derby victor Mage and the 2024 Belmont Stakes victor Dornoch. The pedigree is determination for Baeza to marque history; it would beryllium the 3rd consecutive twelvemonth an offspring of the aforesaid dam won a Triple Crown race.
The velocity successful the contention centers astir 2 horses: Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial, and Crudo, a Todd Pletcher equine and the lad of Justify who has the velocity to spell ligament to wire. Rodriguez was scratched from the Kentucky Derby owed to a ft wounded and was not steadfast capable to contention successful the Preakness. This is simply a Bob Baffert horse, and it volition beryllium the owner's 4th effort astatine capturing his 4th Belmont Stakes.
Hill Road is the champion person successful this race. Trained by Chad Brown, Hill Road volition person Irad Ortiz Jr., 1 of the champion jockeys successful the world, connected his back. Hill Road loves this region and has imaginable to propulsion the upset.
Heart of Honor volition beryllium pulling connected fans' bosom strings! The colt is handled by the father-daughter operation of trainer Jamie Osborne and jockey Saffie Osborne. If Saffie wins, she volition go lone the 2nd pistillate jockey to triumph the Belmont Stakes. The archetypal was Julie Krone successful 1993 connected Colonial Affair.