Big 12 preview: Colorado's reload, Arizona State's repeat bid and the return of Utah and K-State

We've heard a batch astir competitory equilibrium lately. Nick Saban has been talking astir it. Ted Cruz has been talking astir it. People similar maine ne'er truly stop talking astir it.

We each astir surely person antithetic ideas successful caput erstwhile we usage that term, but let maine to contiguous to you a thought experiment: What if each league were similar the Big 12? What if fractional the games successful the Big Ten went down to the ligament successful a fixed week? What if Vanderbilt oregon Mississippi State could randomly triumph the SEC retired of nowhere? What if fractional the ACC were inactive successful the premix for a league rubric crippled spot successful mid-November? That's a satellite successful which I wouldn't caput living.

In 2024, lone 2 of the 4 powerfulness conferences saw astatine slightest 43% of their league games decided by 1 score: the Big 12 and the ACC. Only 2 had astatine slightest fractional their members decorativeness wrong 2 games of the apical of the standings: the Big 12 and the SEC. And of course, lone 1 had an out-of-nowhere champion.

Preseason league canvass ranking for eventual 2024 champions
SEC: Georgia (first)
Big Ten: Oregon (second)
ACC: Clemson (second)
Big 12: Arizona State (16th)

The apical 5 teams successful past season's preseason Big 12 media canvass (Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona) ended up going a combined 26-35 wide and 13-32 successful league play. Only Kansas State ended up vessel eligible. Meanwhile, the bottommost 5 teams successful the canvass (Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Baylor) went a combined 39-25 (26-19).

Arizona State was picked 16th retired of 16 teams with bully reason: The Sun Devils had gone conscionable 3-9 the twelvemonth before, 1 crippled retired of the Pac-12 cellar. An aboriginal tally of choky wins implicit mediocre-to-decent teams assured them of a amazingly coagulated season, and a precocious surge brought them not lone a league rubric crippled berth but besides a blowout triumph implicit Iowa State successful said rubric game. They damn adjacent bushed Texas successful the College Football Playoff, too. It was an unthinkable rags-to-riches tale, 1 that it seems the Big 12 is infinitely much apt to consistently present moving forward.

In effect to past year's incredibly inaccurate poll, the Big 12 elected to driblet the preseason canvass altogether, which is frankly silly. But fearfulness not: Last year's Big 12 SP+ projections were astir arsenic inaccurate! So, we tin inactive marque amusive of the numbers successful a fewer much months, right? It's clip to speech astir the astir unpredictable, wonderfully nonsense-heavy powerfulness league successful assemblage football.

Let's preview the Big 12!

Every week done the summer, Bill Connelly volition preview different FBS conference, yet including each 136 FBS teams. The previews see 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC, Indie/Pac-12 and ACC previews.

2024 recap

Indeed, the last 2024 standings were astir a implicit flip from what was expected. And arsenic ever successful this conference, adjacent games told the tale.

Arizona State and Iowa State went a combined 11-3 successful one-score finishes past play and truthful reached the Big 12 title game. Utah and Kansas went a combined 2-10 successful specified games and amazingly missed retired connected vessel bids altogether. Texas Tech inactive managed to disappoint a spot contempt close-game magic -- the Red Raiders were 6-1 successful one-score games but lone 2-4 successful each others -- and though BYU did the champion occupation of mixing wide prime (17th successful SP+) and coagulated close-game show (4-2 successful one-scores), late-season losses by 4 points (to Kansas, of each teams) and 5 points (to ASU) kept it retired of the rubric game. And aft each the chaos, ASU deed 5th cogwheel precocious successful the play and genuinely played similar a top-10 squad implicit its last 3 games.

Continuity table

The continuity array looks astatine each team's returning accumulation levels (offense, defence and overall), the fig of 2024 FBS starts from some returning and incoming players and the approximate fig of redshirt freshmen connected the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes marque it precise hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an progressively hard creation successful roster management, but immoderate teams propulsion it disconnected amended than others.

Obviously the barroom for what constitutes beardown continuity has shifted beauteous massively successful caller years, but with 8 of the apical 22 teams successful the returning accumulation rankings and the champion returning accumulation mean successful the country, the Big 12 has much continuity than immoderate different conference. Seven teams instrumentality astatine slightest 145 of past year's starts, and 5 brought successful much than 125 FBS starts from elsewhere.

Arizona State returns astir of the reasons for past year's precocious surge (Cam Skattebo aside), and Texas Tech some returns a batch and welcomes 1 of the nation's astir intriguing transportation classes. But Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona and Utah each boast precocious acquisition levels, and adjacent astatine the bottommost of the league, teams similar Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Colorado are bringing successful large transportation hauls that could marque them either rather a spot amended oregon worse. (Well, it astir apt won't marque Oklahoma State demonstrably worse -- the Cowboys were rather atrocious by the extremity of 2024.)

2025 projections

With Kansas State finishing past play 2nd successful the league successful SP+ and enjoying top-15 returning accumulation levels, the Wildcats commencement retired atop the pack. The adjacent six teams are each wrong 1.2 points of each other, and the eighth-ranked squad (Baylor) is lone somewhat much than a touchdown down K-State. Last year, 43% of league games were decided by 1 score. I request 60% oregon higher this year.

(Note: These projections are from my May SP+ update, which didn't instrumentality into relationship recent developments regarding BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff. His aboriginal with the squad remains uncertain astatine the moment, but without him BYU's ranking would autumn to astir 32nd, and the Cougars' mean triumph full would beryllium chopped by 0.3 to 0.5 games. That's not arsenic overmuch of a driblet arsenic I expected, honestly, but support it successful mind.)

Eight teams person astatine slightest a 6% accidental astatine the Big 12 title, and nary 1 has amended than a 1-in-6 chance. And everyone has astatine slightest a 1-in-50 chance. Yes. Bring it on.

Five champion games of 2025

Here are the 5 league games that diagnostic (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for some teams and (b) a projected scoring borderline nether 10 points.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State successful Dublin (Aug. 23). This mightiness beryllium my favourite Week 0 crippled yet. Not lone bash we get a Farmageddon matchup successful conscionable astir the champion dairy onshore successful the world, but we besides get 1 of the biggest games of the Big 12 play earlier Week 1 adjacent rolls around.

TCU astatine Kansas State (Oct. 11). TCU and Baylor some surged successful the precocious stages of 2024, though dissimilar Arizona State, they each did it erstwhile it was excessively precocious to marque a people successful the league rubric race. The Horned Frogs person rather a spot of crushed for optimism, but by the clip this Week 7 matchup is done, they'll person played astatine some Arizona State and K-State. A league rubric tally mightiness necessitate a triumph astatine 1 oregon the other.

Texas Tech astatine Arizona State (Oct. 18). The defending champ against the offseason's buzziest team. The Red Raiders took down ASU successful Lubbock, Texas, past play 30-22, but it was good earlier the Sun Devils recovered 5th gear. Which squad volition beryllium successful due midseason signifier for this one?

Texas Tech astatine Kansas State (Nov. 1). It appears the docket makers decreed K-State and Tech to beryllium the astir impactful teams successful this year's rubric contention -- if they don't triumph it themselves, they'll determine who does.

Kansas State astatine Utah (Nov. 22). Another K-State game! Goodness. Utah went from rubric favourite to 2-7 successful league play past season, but a redesigned discourtesy and amended wounded luck (and the resulting amended close-games fortune) could nutrient a 180-degree turnaround. If so, this 1 could determine a spot successful the rubric game.

Conference rubric (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Kansas State Wildcats

Head coach: Chris Klieman (seventh year, 48-28 overall)

2025 projection: 18th successful SP+, 9.0 mean wins (6.3 successful the Big 12)

In his archetypal play arsenic Kansas State's starting quarterback, Avery Johnson threw for astatine slightest 250 yards 4 times and, not including sacks, rushed for astatine slightest 80 yards 4 times. His champion performances were awesome capable that, successful the Wildcats' 9 wins, they averaged 37.6 points per game. He gave america rather a fewer glimpses of the imaginable helium was expected to person erstwhile helium came to Manhattan arsenic the No. 3 dual-threat QB successful the people of 2023 (and 1 of K-State's astir celebrated signings successful rather a while).

He besides had immoderate implicit duds. He threw 2 picks successful 3 of the Wildcats' 4 losses. He went 12-for-28 against Iowa State. For arsenic bully arsenic the bully performances were, K-State averaged conscionable 15.8 points successful its 4 losses, 3 of which came successful November arsenic the Wildcats tumbled retired of the Big 12 rubric race.

At this point, we've grown accustomed capable to transfers and speedy fixes that it's go casual to hide something: Johnson's 2024 is however things are supposed to go. You're not expected to get successful the starting lineup afloat formed. With erstwhile K-State starter Will Howard leaving to aviator eventual nationalist champion Ohio State, Klieman's Wildcats rode with a QB who had monolithic upside and lessons to learn, and present helium has learned a batch of those lessons. It's hard to accidental Johnson is perfectly going to go a dynamite passer -- helium finished past play with 10 picks and a 58% completion complaint -- but he's a quality third-down conversion with his feet, and he'll person immoderate different breathtaking playmakers astir him this fall. Running backmost Dylan Edwards averaged 7.4 yards per transportation past play (he rushed for 196 yards successful a vessel triumph implicit Rutgers), slot receiver Jayce Brown averaged 17.5 yards per catch, and among incoming transfers, moving backmost Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana) rushed for 1,228 yards, receiver Caleb Medford (New Mexico) averaged 18.7 yards per catch, and receiver Jerand Bradley (Boston College/Texas Tech) has averaged 14.0 yards per drawback implicit 4 seasons.

With 3 starters gone up front, Klieman added 4 transportation linemen to brace with all-conference halfway Sam Hecht, and we'll spot if determination are immoderate glitches there. But if the blocking holds up -- it usually does astatine K-State -- and caller violative coordinator Matt Wells tin coax a spot much consistency retired of Johnson, this could beryllium a top-10 offense.

The defence has been strangely accordant nether coordinator Joe Klanderman, ranking betwixt 25th and 34th successful antiaircraft SP+ for 4 consecutive seasons. The Wildcats were peculiarly assertive past year, and they instrumentality 4 of the six players with astatine slightest six tackles for nonaccomplishment -- ends Chiddi Obiazor and Tobi Osunsanmi and linebackers Desmond Purnell and Austin Romaine. Sacks person Brendan Mott is gone, however, and if the walk unreserved regresses, that could adhd further strain for a secondary that got burned rather a spot successful 2024 and mislaid 4 of past year's apical five. Senior information VJ Payne (five tally stops, six passes defended) is simply a keeper, and I'm intrigued by West Georgia transportation Qua Moss (nine TFLs, 4 passes defended), but it's imaginable the defence becomes adjacent much all-or-nothing than past year's.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Head coach: Kenny Dillingham (third year, 14-11 overall)

2025 projection: 22nd successful SP+, 8.4 mean wins (5.7 successful the Big 12)

It was wide from the commencement of 2024 that Arizona State was amended than expected. The Sun Devils were projected 79th successful SP+ but overachieved against projections successful 5 of their archetypal 7 games and had risen to 52nd heading into November. There was nary crushed to deliberation of them arsenic playoff contenders -- they were 5-2 chiefly due to the fact that of choky wins implicit some decent (Kansas, Utah, Texas State) and atrocious (Mississippi State) teams -- but this was already an undeniably palmy run for a programme that had gone 6-18 implicit the erstwhile 2 seasons.

Arizona State evidently had grander plans. Over their last 7 games, the Sun Devils overachieved against projections by 18.2 points per game, winning their past 5 regular-season games, thumping Iowa State successful the league title and coming wrong 1 play of beating Texas successful the CFP. Their unthinkable surge showed america precisely the benignant of amusive storylines that tin look successful the epoch of an expanded playoff, wherever teams tin person a batch to play for adjacent aft a mates of losses.

Running backmost Cam Skattebo became 1 of the faces of the 2024 season, finishing with 2,316 combined rushing and receiving yards. We'll find retired precisely however important helium was this autumn due to the fact that he's conscionable astir the lone prima gone.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt was astir arsenic bully arsenic Skattebo down the stretch. From November onward, helium ranked 3rd nationally successful Total QBR contempt large wounded issues successful his receiving corps; helium seldom puts the shot successful a unsafe spot, and he's a fantastic scrambler. He gets starring receiver Jordyn Tyson back, on with choky extremity Chamon Metayer, but Tyson needed much assistance than helium got past season, and the No. 2 starring returning wideout, Malik McClain, caught conscionable 2 passes. Among McClain, seasoned transportation Jalen Moss (Fresno State) and possibly young blue-chip transfers Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama), caller weapons request to look retired wide.

Skattebo was a spectacular information broad with his businesslike moving and pass-catching abilities, but immoderate operation of 2024 backup Kyson Brown, Army transportation Kanye Udoh and erstwhile blue-chipper Raleek Brown (injured for astir of 2024) should beryllium decent, astatine least. If thing else, Brown appears to person arsenic unsafe receiving ability, and the blocking up beforehand should beryllium outstanding. Four O-line starters return, and Dillingham added elder tackle Jimeto Obigbo (Texas State).

Even with little evident prima power, the defence was conscionable arsenic liable for ASU's late-season surge arsenic the offense, and of the 17 defenders with astatine slightest 200 snaps past season, a whopping 14 return. Tackle C.J. Fite made 12 tally stops (a immense full for a 310-pounder), extremity Elijah O'Neal made 12.5 TFLs, and corners Keith Abney II and Javan Robinson combined for six interceptions and 17 breakups past season. The walk unreserved was simply decent and volition request to improve, but extent and acquisition volition beryllium large strengths.

It's hard to cognize what to bash with a late-season surge. ASU was coagulated for astir two-thirds of the play and outstanding for 1 third, and portion that wasn't capable to gain the spot of SP+ -- and a 6-2 grounds successful one-score finishes volition beryllium pugnacious to duplicate -- capable of past year's cardinal contributors instrumentality to deliberation that this could beryllium a top-15-level squad again.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach: Joey McGuire (fourth year, 23-16 overall)

2025 projection: 26th successful SP+, 8.4 mean wins (5.6 successful the Big 12)

Three years into Joey McGuire's tenure astatine Texas Tech, things haven't truly changed. The Red Raiders went 7-6 and ranked 40th successful SP+ successful Matt Wells' last play successful charge, and they've averaged 7.7 wins and a No. 45 SP+ ranking since. A operation of bully bounces and bully close-game execution (with utmost fourth-down willingness) has helped McGuire's Red Raiders triumph a immense bulk of their one-score finishes, but Tech hasn't truly gotten amended yet.

If that's going to alteration astatine immoderate point, it volition astir apt beryllium this twelvemonth -- due to the fact that large checkbooks person brought a mega-class of transfers to town.

There are immoderate coagulated violative additions: USC moving backmost Quinten Joyner (7.6 yards per carry), Miami (Ohio) receiver Reggie Virgil (19.9 yards per catch), Louisiana choky extremity Terrance Carter Jr. (10.4 yards per target), Incarnate Word receiver Roy Alexander (1,108 yards and 13 TDs), Miami (Ohio) near tackle Will Jados (second-team All-MAC). They should brace good with returnees specified arsenic seasoned receivers Caleb Douglas and Coy Eakin (combined: 1,529 yards, 13 TDs), sophomore RBs J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey, and 2 returning enactment starters. Former Texas State violative coordinator Mack Leftwich takes implicit astatine OC, and though backmost Behren Morton hasn't been astonishing successful Lubbock -- successful parts of 3 seasons, helium has produced a Total QBR betwixt 51.6 and 56.0 each 3 years -- he'll person his champion supporting formed yet. That's particularly existent if erstwhile blue-chip receiver Micah Hudson figures things out. He caught conscionable 8 passes arsenic a freshman, announced his transportation to Texas A&M this offseason, past returned to Lubbock.

The defence mightiness beryllium the much absorbing unit, and that's a uncommon happening to accidental regarding Tech. New coordinator Shiel Wood improved Houston's defence from 102nd to 54th successful antiaircraft SP+ successful 2024, and he'll person immoderate unthinkable transfers to enactment with astatine each level of the defense. Defensive tackles A.J. Holmes Jr. (Houston), Lee Hunter (UCF) and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois) combined for 28.5 TFLs, 32 tally stops and 8 sacks past year, portion borderline rushers David Bailey (Stanford) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) combined for 16 TFLs, 12 tally stops and 9.5 sacks. Cornerbacks Dontae Balfour (Charlotte), Brice Pollock (Mississippi State) and Amier Boyd (UTEP) each defended (intercepted oregon broke up) astatine slightest 9 passes, and large information Cole Wisniewski (North Dakota State) defended 21 successful 2023. Incumbent linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts (combined: 24 tally stops) and nickel backmost A.J. McCarty besides are coagulated returnees.

Per SP+, Tech has had 1 top-50 defence successful the past 15 years. I would expect that to alteration successful 2025. But are we talking 49th or, say, 29th? Is Morton bully capable astatine QB? Will bully close-games luck proceed adjacent if Tech improves? McGuire didn't motion an tremendous transportation people by today's standards. Can a much targeted attack wage program-wide dividends the aforesaid mode monolithic overhauls astatine Arizona State and Colorado did? Whatever the answers, Tech is 1 of 2025's astir fascinating teams.

BYU Cougars

Head coach: Kalani Sitake (10th year, 72-43 overall)

2025 projection: 27th successful SP+, 8.4 mean wins (5.7 successful the Big 12)

It's evidently not optimal penning a preview for a squad that evidently has to open up its backmost race to 3 beauteous earthy QBs successful the mediate of the summer. Juniors McCae Hillstead and Treyson Bourguet and freshman Bear Bachmeier person combined for 2,376 vocation passing yards, each astatine different schools (Hillstead came from Utah State, Bourguet from Western Michigan). With Jake Retzlaff astir surely gone, 1 of these 3 volition start. That's not large from a wide prognostication standpoint.

That's fine, though, due to the fact that I'm ever incorrect astir BYU. Kalani Sitake's Cougars person been each implicit the representation successful caller years, zigging erstwhile I thought they'd zag. After losing Zach Wilson & Co. aft the superb 2020 season, past holding dependable astatine 10-3 successful 2021, I thought they were beauteous overmuch definite things, but they fell to 8-5 (decent) and 66th successful SP+ (less so). They returned a ton of accumulation successful 2023 and looked similar premier bounce-back candidates, but they slipped further to 76th and 5-7. With rather a spot of turnover -- and an chartless juco transportation astatine backmost -- determination wasn't overmuch crushed to presume a abrupt surge successful 2024. But past came a abrupt surge. Both the discourtesy and defence improved dramatically, and the Cougars roseate arsenic precocious arsenic seventh successful the AP canvass earlier settling for a mere top-15 finish.

So yeah, my BYU preview was going to beryllium a elephantine motion of the shoulders careless of the QB situation. But present are immoderate things I'm astatine slightest reasonably assured successful saying:

• Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker are dynamite. They combined for 21.5 TFLs, 20 tally stops and 8.5 sacks past season. Of the 16 defenders who saw 200-plus snaps, they're 2 of lone 8 returning -- the apical 4 antiaircraft linemen are gone, arsenic are 3 starters successful the secondary -- but they're awesome.

• I similar the incoming antiaircraft enactment transfers. Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah) and Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma State) are some listed astatine 300-plus pounds (Kirkland is really 340-plus), but they combined for 20 tally stops and 4 walk breakups. They're super-active large guys. Another 300-pounder, Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), has disruption potential, too.

• Despite losing 3 starters, the violative enactment is large and experienced, with 5 returnees who started astatine slightest 2 games, positive inferior transfers Andrew Gentry (Michigan) and Kyle Sfarcioc (Southern Utah). Combined with the instrumentality of 220-pound moving backmost LJ Martin, that should marque for a solid, carnal individuality if 1 is required.

• One volition astir apt beryllium required, considering a caller starting QB volition beryllium throwing to a receiving corps replacing 3 of past year's apical 4 options. Senior Chase Roberts is large and awesome, and some sophomore Jojo Phillips and inferior Parker Kingston were fantabulous successful tiny samples. But extent is tenuous astatine best.

• The docket is interesting: 3 opponents projected 88th oregon worse, past 3 betwixt 52nd and 60th, past 4 ranked 32nd oregon better. That volition let the Cougars a accidental to fig themselves out, astatine least.

Utah Utes

Head coach: Kyle Whittingham (21st year, 167-86 overall)

2025 projection: 31st successful SP+, 7.9 mean wins (5.3 successful the Big 12)

In May, I looked astatine three types of luck oregon fortune that could pb to a turnaround (good oregon bad) the pursuing play and came up with ways to people teams successful each category. For turnovers luck, Utah ranked 121st nationally. For close-game fortune, the Utes ranked 99th. For lineup stability, they ranked 128th. Add those rankings together, and they were rather comfortably the slightest fortunate squad successful the powerfulness conferences, 2nd worst among each FBS teams (ahead of lone Florida Atlantic).

Even with backmost Cam Rising injured erstwhile again, they began the play 4-0, rising to 13th successful SP+ with what ended up being their champion defence successful 5 years. But the hits kept coming: They ended up starting 4 antithetic QBs astatine slightest once, on with 11 antithetic receivers and choky ends and 8 antithetic linemen. The result: a illness to 96th successful violative SP+ and a seven-game losing streak that included choky scores of 27-19, 13-7, 17-14, 22-21 and 31-28. They were 40th successful SP+ but missed a bowl.

Long communicative short: Kyle Whittingham's Utes are large turnaround candidates successful 2025. But it volition necessitate a full violative facelift to enactment retired well. He hired originative violative coordinator Jason Beck -- who led New Mexico's champion discourtesy successful 8 years successful 2024 -- and brought successful 3 caller quarterbacks (including New Mexico's Devon Dampier), 4 moving backs and six wide receivers. He didn't request to motion much than 1 lineman due to the fact that past year's apical six are each back, including All-America tackle Spencer Fano. Dampier is simply a dynamite rusher (1,187 pre-sack rushing yards and 19 TDs), and with backs specified arsenic Wayshawn Parker (Washington State) and NaQuari Rogers (UNM) and the aforementioned line, Utah should instantly person 1 of the champion tally games successful the league. Passing? We'll see. Dampier is hit-or-miss, but Ryan Davis (UNM) and Larry Simmons (Southern Miss) could beryllium play-action heavy threats.

Morgan Scalley's defence dealt with its ain wounded issues, with 22 guys starting astatine slightest once. But the Utes inactive finished sixth successful occurrence complaint allowed (13th rushing, 10th passing), allowing immoderate beauteous costly large plays but playing mostly fantabulous ball. It was possibly Scalley's champion coordinator show to date.

Only 10 of those 22 part- oregon full-time starters return, including lone 3 of 9 linemen. Whittingham went mostly young with his incoming transfers, and I'm not definite of the antiaircraft extremity extent beyond prima Logan Fano. But linebackers Lander Barton (12 tally stops) and Levani Damuni (injured successful 2024) are excellent, and inferior corners Smith Snowden and Elijah Davis could beryllium acceptable for prima turns. Utah defenses are ever solid, but to wide the barroom that was acceptable past year, rather a fewer caller linemen volition request to interruption through. I bash fig there's immoderate antiaircraft regression coming, but violative betterment could offset that. If that flips immoderate adjacent games, Utah volition beryllium a contender.

Iowa State Cyclones

Head coach: Matt Campbell (10th year, 64-51 overall)

2025 projection: 32nd successful SP+, 7.8 mean wins (5.5 successful the Big 12)

Iowa State continues to scope caller heights nether Matt Campbell. He has been successful complaint for some of the school's AP top-15 finishes, including past year's 11-win run, and portion the Cyclones' 112-year league rubric drought continues, helium has brought them to the Big 12 rubric crippled twice.

Wild swings successful close-game fortunes person defined caller seasons: From mid-2021 done aboriginal 2023, the Cyclones mislaid an unthinkable 12 of 13 one-score games, but they person since won 7 of nine. That has masked immoderate different singular consistency: In the past 8 seasons, they've finished betwixt 23rd and 37th successful SP+ six times, with 1 twelvemonth supra (2020) and 1 twelvemonth beneath (2022). Their No. 32 projection for 2025 makes sense, then, though with 7 games projected wrong 1 score, they'll erstwhile again beryllium privy to the whims of the deity of adjacent games.

The defence has to regenerate its apical 3 linemen and 4 of its apical six antiaircraft backs, but coordinator Jon Heacock gets the payment of the doubt. He had to commencement 21 antithetic guys astatine slightest erstwhile successful 2024 but inactive produced a top-25 antiaircraft SP+ ranking, and acknowledgment successful portion to those injuries he'll person 1 of his astir seasoned linebacking corps. Kooper Ebel and Rylan Barnes combined for 11 TFLs and 21 tally stops successful 2024, and juniors Will McLaughlin and Caleb Bacon produced akin numbers successful 2023. Safety Jeremiah Cooper and country Jontez Williams are good, and incoming country transportation Tre Bell (Lindenwood) looks the part. The walk defence should beryllium beardown again, but the tally defence was acold worse than mean past season, and this year's enactment volition beryllium acold little experienced. That's not a large combination.

ISU's No. 44 violative SP+ ranking, though unamazing, was its champion successful 3 years. There was thing peculiarly originative present -- Taylor Mouser's discourtesy ran connected modular downs, threw connected passing downs and played astatine astir the astir mean tempo successful the country. But the Cyclones committed astir nary penalties and suffered fewer antagonistic plays oregon three-and-outs. Quarterback Rocco Becht captained a dependable ship, with assistance from 2 carnal moving backs (juniors Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III) and an tremendous enactment (average size of six returnees with starting experience: 6-foot-6, 322 pounds).

Last year's look should beryllium replicable, but it volition necessitate a mates of breakthroughs successful the receiving corps. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are some gone aft combining for 167 catches and 2,377 yards, and the starring returning wideout, Carson Brown, had 11 catches. Between big-play transportation Chase Sowell (East Carolina), elder Daniel Jackson (injured successful 2024) and untested youngsters, caller playmakers indispensable emerge.

With a docket featuring 5 teams projected betwixt 18th and 29th and lone 2 projected worse than 70th, fundamentally each crippled is winnable and astir 10 are losable. Close games and caller playmakers astatine receiver and D-line volition archer the tale.

TCU Horned Frogs

Head coach: Sonny Dykes (fourth year, 27-13 overall)

2025 projection: 29th successful SP+, 7.5 mean wins (5.3 successful the Big 12)

It shouldn't beryllium possible, but someway TCU, which made a tally to the nationalist rubric crippled successful 2022, enjoyed an fantabulous 2024 play that was astir wholly disconnected the radar.

Following 2022's blessed tally -- Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs were an fantabulous squad (ninth successful SP+) that was a small excessively palmy successful one-score games (6-1) -- came a cursed 2023, successful which the merchandise regressed (35th) and each the bully luck went distant (0-4 successful one-score games). I'm astir apt boring you with my changeless references to adjacent games, but that was an epic reversal.

The Frogs started 2024 conscionable 3-3 due to the fact that of a mostly turgid defense. That meant they had gone 8-11 successful their past 19 games. But they past won six of their past seven. The discourtesy recovered a bully cruising altitude, and Andy Avalos' defence went from allowing an mean of 37 points implicit its archetypal 5 FBS games to conscionable 19 implicit its past seven. And it was similar nary 1 noticed. Despite finishing 9-4 (and 25th successful SP+), they got conscionable 2 votes successful the last AP poll. And that dastardly Mark Schlabach doesn't person them successful his post-spring apical 25 either. Unlike truthful galore coaches retired there, Dykes gets to play the "No 1 respects us!" paper with existent information down it.

After a coagulated redshirt freshman play successful 2023, Josh Hoover raised his crippled with 3,949 yards, 27 touchdowns and a 67% completion complaint past year. He threw 8 of his 10 interceptions successful a glitchy five-game midseason span, but helium was mostly harmless down the stretch. He'll person an experienced enactment successful beforehand of him, combining 3 2024 starters with 3 experienced transfers (including San Diego State's Cade Bennett, who came to Fort Worth successful 2024 but missed the play with injury). The accomplishment corps needed replenishing, however, aft losing 4 of its apical 5 walk targets and its starring rusher. Big-play antheral Eric McAlister (19.5 yards per catch) returns, and seasoned receivers Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) and Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards astatine Idaho) could instantly thrive. But things could spell to a antithetic level if breathtaking youngsters specified arsenic sophomores Jordyn Bailey and Braylon James oregon redshirt freshman Dozie Ezukanma emerge.

The defence returns 11 players who saw astatine slightest 200 snaps, but a batch of high-level playmakers -- extremity NaNa Osafo-Mensah, linebacker Johnny Hodges, nickel Abe Camara, country LaMareon James -- are gone. Linebacker Namdi Obiazor and sacks person Devean Deal are excellent, and the secondary, led by information Bud Clark, is loaded with seniors. But it mightiness again instrumentality Avalos a small portion to make due disruption unless transfers specified arsenic tackle Ansel Din-Mbuh (Washington State), linebacker Michael Teason (Missouri State) and information Kylin Jackson (LSU) are contiguous hits.

Baylor Bears

Head coach: Dave Aranda (sixth year, 31-30 overall)

2025 projection: 35th successful SP+, 6.7 mean wins (4.9 successful the Big 12)

If TCU wasn't the astir overlooked occurrence communicative of 2024, Baylor was. After winning the Big 12 successful 2021, Dave Aranda's Bears went conscionable 9-16 implicit the adjacent 2 seasons and began 2024 conscionable 2-4. But similar the rival Horned Frogs, Baylor surged from there, winning six successful a row. The defence didn't play overmuch of a relation successful the streak, but Jake Spavital's discourtesy was magnificent. Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 TDs, portion backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 18 TDs. Baylor gained astatine slightest 20 yards connected 8.7% of its snaps (10th successful FBS) portion gaining zero oregon less connected conscionable 27.7% (19th). That operation volition people you tons of points.

There's nary crushed to deliberation the discourtesy volition regress. Even with Leavitt's late-2024 charge, Robertson was the champion backmost successful the league per Total QBR.

Robertson gets Washington and Pendergrass back, positive starring receivers Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins (combined: 1,321 yards, 15 TDs), and Aranda added 2 600-yard transportation receivers (San Diego State's Louis Brown IV and Texas State's Kole Wilson) and enigmatic seasoned Kobe Prentice (Alabama). The enactment returns 4 starters arsenic well, including all-conference defender Omar Aigbedion. The Bears scored 31 oregon much points 9 times past year, and it would beryllium a astonishment if they did truthful less times successful 2025.

Big 12 contention, then, is up to the defense. Baylor collapsed from 18th successful antiaircraft SP+ successful 2021 to 103rd successful 2023, and portion the Bears rebounded to 63rd past year, with a genuinely coagulated tally defense, the walk defence was terrible, and they mislaid 3 games portion scoring 28 oregon much points. Aranda kept third-year coordinator Matt Powledge but loaded up connected transfers. Travion Barnes (FIU) and Phoenix Jackson (Fresno State) were 2 of the champion blitzing linebackers successful the portal, borderline rusher Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) is exciting, and betwixt Tulane's Adonis Friloux (310 pounds) and Texas A&M's Samu Taumanupepe (380!), Aranda added immoderate spectacular size up front. But portion returning country Caden Jenkins is solid, Powledge has to anticipation that a fewer of the six incoming DBs thrive quickly. The astir apt of the bunch, based connected their stats and/or recruiting rankings: information Devin Turner (Northwestern), blue-chip country Calvin Simpson-Hunt (Oregon) and FCS country Caldra Williford (Tennessee Tech).

Having specified an experienced squad could beryllium important, arsenic the docket starts with a bang: In the archetypal 4 weeks, Baylor hosts Auburn and Arizona State and visits SMU. Kansas State and Utah besides sojourn Waco -- the home-road divided present is beauteous favorable -- and if the defence tin conscionable deed a top-40 level oregon so, the discourtesy mightiness instrumentality it from there.

A mates of breaks distant from a run

Kansas Jayhawks

Head coach: Lance Leipold (fifth year, 22-28 overall)

2025 projection: 50th successful SP+, 6.0 mean wins (4.0 successful the Big 12)

Here's a surefire mode to ruin your societal media mentions for a fewer days: Compare idiosyncratic to Bill Snyder. In past year's Big 12 preview, I noted that (a) successful the years earlier Lance Leipold arrived, Kansas' wide shot awfulness rivaled that of Kansas State's successful the pre-Snyder 1980s, and (b) successful his archetypal 3 years connected the job, Leipold had really engineered a amended product. I besides mentioned that nary 1 tin duplicate what Snyder did agelong term, but the harm was done. My mentions were a trash occurrence for days.

I indispensable person jinxed Leipold successful the process. His 2024 Jayhawks, playing their location games extracurricular of Lawrence portion Memorial Stadium was undergoing renovations, slipped from 25th to 50th successful SP+ and, with assistance from a tally of adjacent losses (1-5 successful one-score games), fell from 9-4 to 5-7.

Of course, successful Snyder's 4th play (1992), K-State slipped to 5-6 and 55th successful SP+. That brings the wide scoreboard to ...

Leipold's archetypal 4 years astatine Kansas: 22-28, 51.0% mean SP+ percentile rating

Snyder's archetypal 4 years astatine K-State: 18-26, 43.3% mean SP+ percentile rating

Leipold inactive has the edge. Bring it on, K-State fans.

(No, but seriously, delight don't bring it on.)

In Year 5, Snyder's programme ignited. K-State jumped to 26th successful SP+ successful 1993, past 15th successful 1994, past 2nd successful 1995. It volition lone get harder for Leipold to support up, and a 2025 rebound volition necessitate Leipold, a culture-and-development feline done and through, to beryllium his portal chops.

Somehow, backmost Jalon Daniels inactive has eligibility near and volition get a accidental to adhd to his 6,751 vocation passing yards and 1,401 vocation rushing yards. He'll person his 3rd coordinator successful arsenic galore years, but it's a acquainted sanction successful longtime QBs manager Jim Zebrowski. That's not each the change, though. Only 2 different violative starters instrumentality (all-conference halfway Bryce Foster and defender Kobe Baynes), and Daniels volition beryllium surrounded by transfers -- moving backmost Leshon Williams (Iowa), 5 caller walk catchers including Ball State's Cam Pickett, 2 big-play FCS guys (Columbia's Bryson Canty and Albany's Levi Wentz), a erstwhile blue-chipper successful Alabama's Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and 5 caller linemen.

On defense, caller coordinator D.K. McDonald inherits a portion facing adjacent much change. Of the 15 defenders with 200-plus snaps, lone 5 return, and 4 are linemen. (End Dean Miller and tackles D.J. Withers and Tommy Dunn Jr. are excellent.) The backmost 7 volition beryllium led astir wholly by transfers; that includes a dynamite brace of linebackers successful Trey Lathan (West Virginia) and Joseph Sipp Jr. (Bowling Green), but the incoming DBs are little proven. Nickel Syeed Gibbs (Georgia Tech) looks disruptive, but the walk defence could proceed to beryllium a liability.

Arizona Wildcats

Head coach: Brent Brennan (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 60th successful SP+, 5.4 mean wins (3.4 successful the Big 12)

It's ever hard to spot a one-year surge. Arizona went conscionable 10-31 with an mean SP+ ranking of 98.8 from 2019 to 2022, and portion that made the Wildcats' 10-win 2023 play peculiarly exhilarating, it besides meant that past year's steep regression wasn't wholly surprising, adjacent if astir of america were much optimistic.

Quarterback Noah Fifita is back, having thrown for 5,827 yards and 43 TDs successful 2 years, and sophomore defender Alexander Doost returns aft producing the champion blown-block complaint connected the team. I unluckily conscionable listed each of the semi-proven violative returnees. Some transfers volition person to thrive, and manager Brent Brennan surely landed a fewer intriguing ones. Backs Ismail Mahdi (Texas State) and Quincy Craig (Portland State) are unsocial run-and-catch threats, slot receiver Luke Wysong (New Mexico) was heavy targeted past season, and 2 FCS transfers, Cam Barmore (Mercyhurst) and Javin Whatley (Chattanooga), combined to mean 15.0 yards per catch. Seven caller linemen are aboard arsenic well, and astir of them astatine slightest person fantabulous size. There's imaginable here, and caller coordinator Seth Doege engineered coagulated betterment successful his lone play astatine Marshall past year.

The codification for Arizona's defence was beauteous casual to ace past season: Do you person a decent offense? If so, you're going to people tons of points.

Arizona vs. offenses ranked worse than 60th successful SP+: 15.5 points per crippled allowed, 5.0 yards per play

Arizona vs. top-60 offenses: 39.9 points per crippled allowed, 7.0 yards per play

Now-former antiaircraft coordinator Duane Akina played a ton of guys -- 22 got astatine slightest 100 snaps -- but lone antiaircraft extremity Tre Smith, nickel Dalton Johnson and linebacker Taye Brown did thing peculiarly disruptive, and of those 22 guys, lone 9 return.

Smith, Johnson and Brown each instrumentality for caller coordinator Danny Gonzales, and arsenic with the offense, I similar rather a fewer incoming transfers -- ends Chancellor Owens (Northwestern State) and Malachi Bailey (Alcorn State) and linebackers Blake Gotcher (Northwestern State) and Riley Wilson (Montana) combined for 51.5 TFLs and 22.5 sacks, country Michael Dansby (San Jose State) is simply a proven entity, and some information Jshawn Frausto-Ramos (Stanford) and country Jay'Vion Cole (Texas) did rather a spot successful fewer snaps.

Brennan needed a palmy portal haul, and portion the FCS-to-FBS transfers are sometimes hard to project, I similar what helium added. The extremes of Arizona's past 2 seasons person been dizzying, but the Wildcats person averaged 7 wins and a No. 50 SP+ ranking the past 2 years; that's astir apt excessively precocious a barroom to wide this year, particularly with six top-50 opponents connected the schedule, but I don't deliberation it's impossible.

Colorado Buffaloes

Head coach: Deion Sanders (third year, 13-12 overall)

2025 projection: 52nd successful SP+, 5.5 mean wins (3.3 successful the Big 12)

If we disregard the unthinkable talents of Heisman victor Travis Hunter and the preposterously QB-centric discourtesy Pat Shurmur crafted to showcase Shedeur Sanders, and we lone look astatine the results, the archetypal 2 years of the Deion Sanders epoch were beauteous spectacular. Sanders inherited a programme that, successful 16 afloat seasons earlier his arrival, had finished with a winning grounds once. In his 2nd year, his Buffaloes went 9-4. They were lone 2-4 against SP+ top-50 teams, but 2024 was an undeniable success.

For amended oregon worse, this year's CU squad is going to beryllium astir wholly different. Only six starters return, and successful travel different 30-plus transfers.

The archetypal non-Sanders QB of the Sanders era: Kaidon Salter, who successful 2023 and '24 threw for 4,762 yards with 1,840 non-sack rushing yards and 66 full touchdowns astatine Liberty. He's astir 180 degrees antithetic from Shedeur Sanders -- if you don't person a decent designed-run package, you're not maximizing his imaginable -- but he's good. A marque caller receiving corps volition diagnostic perchance high-level transfers successful Joseph Williams (Tulsa), Hykeem Williams (Florida State) and Sincere Brown (Campbell), among others, and returnees Dre'lon Miller and Omarion Miller person coagulated potential. At moving back, Dallan Hayden didn't bash overmuch past year, but I'm funny astir Incarnate Word transportation DeKalon Taylor. Up front, well, it's the 3rd consecutive twelvemonth with an astir wholly caller O-line. We'll see.

The discourtesy shined astatine times past year, but the defense's improvement, from 113th to 45th successful SP+, was a immense operator of success. We'll spot if second-year coordinator Robert Livingston tin trade the aforesaid occurrence with a mostly caller unit. Ends Samuel Okunlola and Arden Walker (combined: 14.5 TFLs), tackle Amari McNeill and country DJ McKinney are coagulated returnees, but different large transportation haul volition archer the tale. There are immoderate promising additions -- linebackers Reginald Hughes (Jacksonville State) and Martavius French (UTSA) combined for 25 TFLs and 31 tally stops past season, corners Tyrecus Davis (Wyoming) and Teon Parks (Illinois State) combined for 24 passes defended, and information Tawfiq Byard (USF) is dynamite adjacent the enactment of scrimmage.

Sanders is conscionable 4-3 arsenic a caput manager erstwhile Shedeur Sanders isn't his quarterback, and helium had the astir uniquely superb subordinate successful the state astatine his disposal the past 2 years. It's a caller era, and the Buffaloes drew the abbreviated straw successful Big 12 play -- they play six of the apical 7 projected teams successful SP+. But the wide endowment level is solid, and a Sanders squad volition ever beryllium interesting, 1 mode oregon another.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Head coach: Mike Gundy (21st year, 169-88 overall)

2025 projection: 58th successful SP+, 5.4 mean wins (3.6 successful the Big 12)

Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy person each coached astatine their existent schools for 20 years and achieved unprecedented, sustained success. They some disappointed horribly past season, but portion Whittingham's Utah was comparatively unlucky successful 2024, Gundy's OSU was conscionable bad. The discourtesy was dreadfully inefficient, lone occasionally redeeming itself with large plays and large reddish portion execution. The defense, meanwhile, was unredeemable. Gundy had struck golden successful the past, hiring Division II hotshot Mike Yurcich arsenic violative coordinator backmost successful 2013, but hiring different D-II feline successful 2023, antiaircraft coordinator Bryan Nardo, bombed.

What bash you bash erstwhile your comparatively inexperienced small-school DC fails? Look for the astir experienced big-school feline you tin find. Gundy recovered Todd Grantham.

Grantham has been successful complaint of large defenses (four SP+ top-15 units successful the 2010s astatine Georgia, Louisville and Florida), and he's had immoderate implicit duds. He's a "when successful doubt, blitz harder" guy, and Gundy tried to bring him immoderate portal walk rushers successful ends Kyran Duhon (UTEP), Taje McCoy (Colorado) and Malik Charles (West Georgia) and linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky). He besides got a mates of large tackles (Vanderbilt's De'Marion Thomas, UCLA's Sitiveni Havili Kaufusi), a tackling instrumentality successful linebacker Bryan McCoy (17 tally stops astatine Akron) and tons of caller transfers and jucos for the secondary. He fundamentally stripped the defence down to the studs, arsenic helium needed to. Now we'll spot if it works.

On offense, OSU is going backmost to basics. Doug Meacham, a dispersed old-hand and Gundy's receivers manager successful the 2000s, comes backmost to Stillwater, and his archetypal Cowboy discourtesy volition fundamentally person 11 caller starters, astir of whom volition travel from a haul of 19 transfers. Running backmost Freddie Brock (Georgia State) is simply a bully run/pass threat, Christian Fitzpatrick (Marshall) and Jaylen Lloyd (Nebraska) are deep-route experts, choky extremity Oscar Hammond (North Texas) is good, and 2 Division II receivers, Terrill Davis (Central Oklahoma) and Cam Abshire (Emory & Henry), each had fantastic numbers astatine that level. I'm not definite I spot immoderate enactment standouts, and OSU is wholly devoid of acquisition astatine quarterback, wherever it appears either sophomore Zane Flores oregon incoming redshirt freshman Hauss Hejny (TCU) volition start. But again, an overhaul was needed. Now we'll spot if it works.

Gundy has steered retired of skids before, and each clip radical commencement to telephone him washed up, helium puts unneurotic a 10-win season. But he's ne'er had to hole thing this broken.

Houston Cougars

Head coach: Willie Fritz (second year, 4-8 overall)

2025 projection: 59th successful SP+, 5.8 mean wins (3.6 successful the Big 12)

Willie Fritz's archetypal play astatine Houston was, successful a way, backward. The Cougars are utilized to bully discourtesy but collapsed to 118th successful violative SP+, portion the defense, having ranked 94th oregon worse for 5 of six seasons, surged to 54th. They held fractional their opponents to 20 oregon less points but scored 14 oregon less points fractional the time.

Historically, Fritz is simply a large second-year coach. In his 5 erstwhile caput coaching stops (Blinn Community College, Central Missouri, Sam Houston, Georgia Southern and Tulane), helium went from a combined 30-25-1 successful his archetypal twelvemonth to 44-17 successful his second. I would conjecture that his 2nd UH discourtesy volition so amended dramatically. Slade Nagle, his erstwhile Tulane OC, volition pb an onslaught that present features backmost Conner Weigman (Texas A&M), moving backmost Dean Connors (Rice), highly sought-after choky extremity Tanner Koziol (Ball State) and a clump of enactment transfers.

Weigman, a erstwhile top-30 recruit, was hit-and-miss astatine A&M, but Fritz praised his athleticism and adaptability this week astatine Big 12 media days, and Connors is simply a dynamite yards-after-contact feline who besides caught 62 passes successful 2024. Slot receiver Stephon Johnson, moving backmost Re'Shaun Sanford II and halfway Demetrius Hunter are astir apt the champion of the returnees.

The main question for 2025 is if violative betterment simply offsets antiaircraft regression. Coordinator Shiel Wood near for Texas Tech and was replaced by Austin Armstrong, and of 13 guys who saw 200-plus snaps (a beauteous choky rotation), lone 4 return. Granted, returnees tackle Carlos Allen Jr., borderline rusher Brandon Mack and information Kentrell Webb are solid, but this is going to beryllium a caller portion with 3 transportation linemen, 4 linebackers and nine DBs. As with astir Big 12 teams, I similar a batch of the incoming transfers, from tackle Myles Parker (Tennessee Tech), who made 7.5 TFLs astatine 335 pounds, to linebackers Carmycah Glass (Louisiana) and Jesus Machado (Tulane), nickel backmost Wrook Brown (Wyoming) and corners Marc Stampley II (Georgia Southern), Will James (Southern Miss) and Zelmar Vedder (Sacramento State). Still, having to retool an encouraging defence this overmuch isn't optimal.

Houston plays lone 4 projected top-50 opponents and, contempt mediocre wide rankings, is simply a projected favourite successful six games. The pathway to a second-year breakthrough exists, but lone if Fritz turns retired to beryllium a beardown transportation portal negotiator.

UCF Knights

Head coach: Scott Frost (third twelvemonth astatine UCF, 19-7 overall, archetypal twelvemonth of 2nd stint)

2025 projection: 61st successful SP+, 5.7 mean wins (3.4 successful the Big 12)

Under Gus Malzahn, UCF was thing astir worse than bad: The Knights were perpetually mediocre. They perpetually hinted astatine a level that they could ne'er clasp connected to and went conscionable 10-15 successful 2023 and '24. It made sense, then, that the schoolhouse would privation to reclaim aged glories. Scott Frost led the Knights to a 13-0 grounds and nationalist rubric assertion successful 2017 earlier returning to alma mater Nebraska and going conscionable 16-31. Now he's backmost successful his aged office successful Orlando.

Big tackle Paul Rubelt is the lone returning starter connected an discourtesy that welcomes 17 transfers, galore of them alternatively explosive: Quarterback Tayven Jackson (Indiana) averaged 15.2 yards per completion and 5.7 yards per non-sack carry, moving backmost Jaden Nixon (Western Michigan) averaged 6.4 yards per carry, choky extremity Dylan Wade (Maryland) had 5 catches of astatine slightest 25 yards, and smaller-school guys DJ Black (Limestone) and Chris Domercant (Chattanooga) combined for 1,579 yards astatine 20.5 per catch. Jackson is the presumptive starter, and the RB combo of Nixon and Myles Montgomery should implicit a bully backfield. But the receiving corps and violative enactment person rather a spot to beryllium successful Frost's mach-speed offense.

As portion of his redemption tour, Frost brought different redemption campaigner with him: coordinator Alex Grinch. Once a agleam up-and-comer astatine Washington State, Grinch bombed astatine USC. He has proven helium tin thrive erstwhile helium has what helium needs connected the edge, though, and astatine UCF he'll person ends Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence (combined: 17 TFLs) and a perchance dynamite transportation successful sophomore Sincere Edwards (six TFLs astatine Pitt). Among linebackers Keli Lawson (Virginia Tech), Lewis Carter (Oklahoma) and Cole Kozlowski (Colgate), helium should find a bully tackling instrumentality successful the middle, and the cornerback haul of Jayden Bellamy (Syracuse), DJ Bell (Memphis), Jyaire Brown (LSU) and Isaiah Reed (Brown) should nutrient 2 keepers.

Overall, UCF should person plentifulness of explosive athletes, a bully tally crippled and a bully walk rush. Like beauteous overmuch everyone present astatine the bottom, the Knights could find conscionable the close alchemy to marque a abrupt push, but idiosyncratic successful this league has to suffer games, and UCF mislaid rather a fewer successful 2024.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Head coach: Scott Satterfield (third year, 8-16 overall)

2025 projection: 66th successful SP+, 5.3 mean wins (3.2 successful the Big 12)

Luke Fickell went an unthinkable 53-11 successful his past 5 seasons successful complaint but near for Wisconsin arsenic Cincy was making the determination to the Big 12; successor Scott Satterfield had matched that fig of losses by the extremity of his 2nd September.

The Bearcats did amended successful Year 2, though not arsenic overmuch arsenic they astir apt hoped. The discourtesy didn't marque astir capable large plays but was beauteous efficient, particularly done the air. With backmost Brendan Sorsby and choky extremity Joe Royer returning, that ratio imaginable remains. But with starring rusher Corey Kiner and past year's apical 4 wideouts gone, Sorsby volition beryllium distributing the shot to immoderate unfamiliar teammates. Satterfield seemed to admit Cincy's explosiveness issues by adding a trio of big-play receivers successful Caleb Goodie (Colorado State), Cyrus Allen (Texas A&M/Louisiana Tech) and Jeff Caldwell (Lindenwood). Throw successful an expanded relation for erstwhile Ohio State moving backmost Evan Pryor -- whose 71 touches astatine UC past twelvemonth included rushes of 65, 64, 55, 36 and 32 yards and receptions of 80 and 40 yards -- and you could person a monolithic uptick successful large plays. Maintaining past year's ratio mightiness beryllium up to a enactment that mislaid 3 starters but added 3 experienced transfers.

The defence returns immoderate difference-makers successful the beforehand six. That's doubly existent if tackle Dontay Corleone tin find 5th cogwheel again. A imaginable All-American, "The Godfather" was simply bully past play aft coming backmost from offseason humor clot issues, but he's healthy, and transportation ends Jaylon White-McClain (Old Dominion) and Mikah Coleman (EMU, injured successful 2024) could springiness the Bearcats other oomph up front. At extracurricular linebacker, Jake Golday and Jonathan Thompson are some fantabulous against the run.

The walk defence is the question mark. The walk unreserved is unproven, and 4 of past year's 5 starting DBs are gone, leaving returnees similar nickel Antwan Peek Jr. to brace with newcomers similar country Matthew McDoom (Coastal Carolina) and safeties Tayden Barnes (New Mexico State), Xavier Williams (Middle Tennessee) and Christian Harrison (Tennessee). Barnes was 1 of the astir disruptive freshman DBs successful the state past season.

Further betterment is apt successful Satterfield's 3rd season, but with a docket featuring six top-35 opponents, I'm not definite what interaction that volition person connected the triumph total.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Head coach: Rich Rodriguez (eighth twelvemonth astatine WVU, 60-26 overall, archetypal twelvemonth of 2nd stint)

2025 projection: 57th successful SP+, 5.2 mean wins (3.1 successful the Big 12)

Like Scott Frost, Rich Rodriguez has returned to the country of his top successes. He adjacent doubled down connected the nostalgia origin by hiring erstwhile Mountaineers stars similar Pat White and Noel Devine arsenic assistants.

Rodriguez has brought successful 52 transfers, including seasoned moving backmost Jaylan Knighton (SMU), 3 small-school thousand-yard rushers (Catawba's L.J. Turner, Ferris State's Kannon Katzer and Northern Iowa's Tye Edwards), 4 600-yard receivers (including Jacksonville State big-play antheral Cam Vaughn and Idaho State thousand-yarder Jeff Weimer), 11 violative linemen, dynamite UTSA borderline rusher Jimmori Robinson (10.5 sacks, 11 tally stops), 2 disruptive FCS linebackers (Southern Illinois' Ben Bogle and UIW's Devin Grant), 2 of the astir disruptive DBs successful the Group of 5 (Nevada country Michael Coats Jr. and Jax State nickel Fred Perry) and a fascinating D2 information successful Virginia Union's William Davis (11.5 TFLs!).

With inferior Jahiem White besides returning, WVU should easy person 1 of the astir breathtaking moving backmost units successful the country. His vocation has been hit-and-miss since helium near Morgantown the archetypal time, but helium re-established his run-game bona fides astatine Jacksonville State, winning 27 games successful 3 seasons. In Tyler Huff, helium had a cleanable QB for his benignant astatine JSU, and we'll spot if either Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M), returnee Nicco Marchiol oregon Max Brown (Charlotte) acceptable arsenic well. But Rodriguez decidedly brought successful arsenic galore intriguing weapons arsenic helium could find successful the portal.

He besides made a bully antiaircraft coordinator hire, luring erstwhile JSU DC Zac Alley implicit from Oklahoma. A erstwhile pupil and postgraduate adjunct astatine Clemson, Alley has lone been a full-time manager since 2019, but his way grounds is dynamite: He oversaw betterment astatine ULM (opposite violative coordinator Rich Rod) successful 2021, engineered a No. 57 antiaircraft SP+ ranking successful Jax State's FBS debut and helped OU to amended from 38th to 17th past season. There are truthful galore caller guys that everyone's going to request to deterioration sanction tags successful the gathering country for a fewer months, but helium does person immoderate playmakers here. And if the Mountaineers tin harvester antagonistic plays connected defence with large tally plays connected offense, their in-the-cellar projection volition beryllium acold excessively pessimistic.

Just looking for a way to 6-6

I usually reserve this class for teams with nary much than a 35% accidental of vessel eligibility. The Big 12 has nary specified teams. Everyone has a crushed to beryllium beauteous ambitious. I emotion this conference.