Cameroon: What keeps Paul Biya in power?

"The best is yet to come."

That is the promise Paul Biya makes as he runs for an eighth term as Cameroon's head of state. The 92-year-old has had over 40 years to shape his country's destiny: he has been in power since 1982, and if he is re-elected on October 12, the world's oldest head of state could remain in office until shortly before his 100th birthday.

Many inhabitants of the central African country no longer believe in a better Cameroon under Biya. Young people in particular — more than 36% of the population is under the age of 18 — lack prospects: unemployment, education, and health care are among their concerns.

While most Cameroonians are young people, they often feel their political voices are not being heardImage: Henri Fotso/DW

The "Biya system"

One in four Cameroonians lives below the poverty line. Despite its wealth of oil, natural gas, aluminum, gold, precious woods, coffee, cocoa, and cotton, Cameroon is heavily dependent on China's economy, but also on development aid. Corruption and human rights violations are part of everyday life.

Many Cameroonians shrug their shoulders at Biya's renewed candidacy.

"It's no surprise," student Olivier Njoya tells DW.

"It's just a shame that there are people who don't think about the common good, but only about their own interests."

So how does a politician manage to keep his tight web of power intact for 43 years? Especially since Biya has often stayed abroad in clinics and for recreation in Paris and Switzerland.

Christian Klatt, office manager of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) in Cameroon, told DW it is "striking how good he is at holding on to power." Voices from within his own camp and from the opposition repeatedly claim that Biya knows how to play his competitors off against each other.

"In recent years, no one has been able to pose a threat to Biya," says Klatt, adding that no one has ever really succeeded in establishing themselves as Biya's successor, either from within his own ranks or in the largest opposition parties.

"Biya is very good at praising people away, transferring them to other posts," Klatt says. 

No danger of a coup in Cameroon

Particularly in West Africa, disgruntled generals have seized power in coups in the past.

Klatt considers such a scenario impossible in Cameroon: "The military, which is always a risk factor in many other countries, has a strong separation of powers within its own structures. No single group would therefore be strong enough to launch a coup," he tells DW.

Biya's party, the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (RDPC), has been in power since Cameroon's independence in 1960 and has been led by President Biya since 1982.

According to Klatt, it is not unlikely that Biya will win the election again in the fall: "His ruling party has many supporters and is best represented throughout the country."

In a short election process, the RDPC could outdo other opposition parties. In the Cameroonian electoral system, a candidate only needs a simple majority to win the election, which greatly benefits Biya.

Seat of the ruling party in Yaounde: President Paul Biya has been in power for 43 years and does not tolerate any opening up of political systemImage: Henri Fotso/DW

Lone warriors instead of a united opposition

One of those running to succeed Biya is 37-year-old Hiram Samuel Iyodi. He is one of the youngest candidates and was nominated by the MP3 (Patriotic Movement for the Peoples' Prosperity) party, which was founded in 2018.

"Young people in particular have the impression that the Cameroonian electoral system is tailored to the ruling party," Iyodi told DW.

"We are saying to young Cameroonians: if we all stick together, we can put an end to this regime that is no longer able to respond to the current concerns of the population," he adds.

The opposition parties' efforts over the years to create a counterweight to Biya's candidacy failed due to differing ideologies and their internal divisions: a political coalition, the Douala Group, collapsed shortly before the deadline for presidential nominations (July 22).

Puppet masters in the shadow of the president

However, some experts do not see Biya as a strong man, but rather as a puppet of a perfidious political system. According to Philippe Nanga, political analyst and human rights activist, real power no longer lies in the hands of the president, but in those of a small circle of actors, led by the president's secretary general, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh.

"The secretary-general now signs almost all documents that are supposed to come from the president. He is omnipresent on the ground, leads political missions, and resolves internal conflicts within the party. These are tasks that normally fall under the responsibility of the head of state," Nanga told DW.

Cameroon's population has been hoping for political change for decades in order to reform the countryImage: Blaise Eyong

Fear of giving up privileges

According to Nanga, despite his Biya's frail health, he remains the only one who can preserve the unity of the party.

"As soon as someone else officially comes to power, the party will break apart. There are already deep internal divisions," says Nanga. Some officials are opposed to the president's re-election but do not dare to express this openly for fear of reprisals.

Many individual journalists, politicians, and activists have been arbitrarily detained and physically assaulted in Cameroon. In its latest annual report, the non-governmental organization Freedom House refers to attacks on "independent media, opposition parties, and civil society organizations, which have faced bans and harassment." 

Political scientist Ernesto Yene says fear is what maintains the façade of stability in Biya's system.

"Anyone who dares to slam the door is quickly marginalized," Yene told DW.

"In reality, everyone is hiding behind Paul Biya's candidacy because it guarantees everyone the preservation of their privileges within the power apparatus. If another candidate were to emerge, the party would run the risk of imploding."

Contributors: Kossivi Tiassou, Etienne Gatanzi, Elisabeth Asen

Edited by Cai Nebe