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The 12-team College Football Playoff volition again see the 5 highest-ranked league champions -- a warrant that expands the excavation of candidates to see immoderate squad that has a changeable astatine winning its conference.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, determination are 32 teams -- the astir successful the CFP epoch -- with astatine slightest a 10% accidental of reaching the playoff. They travel from the Power 4 conferences, the American and the Mountain West, but however galore of them tin really triumph the nationalist title?
"Four oregon five," Texas A&M manager Mike Elko said.
"I'd accidental there's eight," Alabama's Kalen DeBoer said.
This database volition shrink by November, but beneath it starts with 32 teams ranked successful bid of their percent accidental to marque the playoff. You'll besides spot their accidental to triumph the nationalist title, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
The CFP enactment committee doesn't ever hold with the computers, though. Here's a look astatine however they volition presumption the 32 teams with astatine slightest a 10% accidental to marque the playoff.
1. Texas Longhorns
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +550
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest astatine No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 83.9% | Win nationalist title: 24.1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Longhorns should beryllium successful -- either arsenic the SEC champ, oregon done an at-large bid. But ESPN's FPI projects Texas volition triumph each game, and that's not going to hap with a first-time starting backmost -- nary substance what his past sanction is. There's an bonzer magnitude of unit connected Arch Manning, and portion helium could pb the Longhorns to the SEC championship, he's going to request immoderate borderline for mistake on the way. Texas volition person 4 caller starting violative linemen, and it is replacing its apical 3 walk catchers from past season. The Longhorns are a playoff squad -- but determination are excessively galore questions heading into the play opener against Ohio State to state them a preseason No. 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 astatine Georgia. Yes, the play opener astatine Ohio State mightiness beryllium the biggest crippled of the year, but determination volition beryllium plentifulness of clip to marque up for a loss. History tells america it's amended to suffer aboriginal than precocious (See: Notre Dame vs. NIU). The Longhorns' crippled astatine Georgia, though, comes astatine the astir captious constituent successful the season, erstwhile the league standings and a guaranteed first-round CFP bye are wrong reach.
What the committee volition like: Road wins. Texas has ample opportunities to impressment the radical with pugnacious roadworthy wins astatine Ohio State, Georgia and Florida, positive its yearly neutral-site crippled against rival Oklahoma. That's the benignant of lineup that volition assistance abstracted the Longhorns from different comparable teams.
What the committee won't like: A anemic September. If Texas loses astatine Ohio State, determination won't beryllium thing to abstracted the Longhorns arsenic a existent contender heading into October. Texas would apt person a 3-1 September commencement successful that script with location wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. Style points volition matter, but lone truthful overmuch against unranked, overmatched non-power opponents. That could travel backmost to haunt it successful the committee gathering country arsenic the rankings play retired -- particularly if immoderate SEC opponents specified arsenic Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas don't decorativeness arsenic CFP apical 25 teams.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +800
CFP ranking history: 54 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (15 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 78.6% | Win nationalist title: 17.9%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia is simply a playoff squad that's a coin flip with Texas to triumph the SEC. Like Texas, the Bulldogs volition person a caller starting backmost and 4 caller violative linemen. If Georgia is going to repetition arsenic SEC champs and beforehand deeper into the CFP bracket, though, its receivers person to beryllium much dependable (last play Georgia led Power 4 league teams successful dropped passes) and the Bulldogs request to make much holes successful the moving crippled -- particularly to assistance retired backmost Gunner Stockton.
Toughest test: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. This is the lone crippled connected Georgia's docket that ESPN's FPI gives the Bulldogs little than a 50% accidental to triumph (49.5%).
What the committee volition like: A September to remember. If Georgia tin commencement 4-0 with wins against Tennessee and Alabama, the enactment committee volition retrieve those done Selection Day. It could besides assistance Georgia gain a top-four effect adjacent if the Bulldogs decorativeness with 1 nonaccomplishment to Texas and don't triumph the SEC. This assumes the Vols and Bama volition decorativeness arsenic CFP apical 25 opponents.
What the committee won't like: Road upsets. Winning astatine Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State won't beryllium easy, but if Georgia is simply a existent nationalist rubric contender, it shouldn't person a losing roadworthy record. The neutral-site crippled against rival Florida is besides a accidental to impressment the committee distant from Athens, but the world is Georgia has lone those 3 existent roadworthy games -- and should beryllium the favourite connected each trip. And 3 of Georgia's location games are against non-power opponents Marshall, FCS squad Austin Peay and Charlotte.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last year: 14-2, CFP champion
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +550
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (five times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 70.6% | Win nationalist title: 10.8%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The defending nationalist champs are again a playoff-caliber team, but earlier handing them a first-round bye, see however hard Ohio State's docket is. In summation to the location play opener against Texas, Ohio State has roadworthy trips to Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin and rival Michigan -- nary of which are gimmes. The back-to-back October trips to Illinois and Wisconsin volition beryllium trickier than they look connected paper, and Washington should beryllium a amended squad this autumn successful the 2nd play nether manager Jedd Fisch. ESPN analytics projects Ohio State's lone regular-season nonaccomplishment volition beryllium astatine location successful the play opener against Texas. But Penn State mightiness person thing to accidental astir that connected Nov. 1 successful Columbus.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes volition person a bye week to hole for the crippled that volition assistance find a spot successful the Big Ten championship. While the Big Ten victor volition beryllium guaranteed a spot successful the playoff, it's imaginable the runner-up could articulation the league champ successful the enactment committee's apical 4 and besides get a first-round bye arsenic a top-four seed. If Ohio State loses to Texas and Penn State, though -- some astatine location -- a bye would beryllium successful jeopardy.
What the committee volition like: A November to remember. The committee's archetypal ranking volition beryllium released connected Nov. 4 -- close aft Ohio State starts the period against Penn State. If the Buckeyes spell 5-0 successful November with 2 wins against CFP apical 25 teams, it volition assistance Ohio State compensate for a imaginable 2nd loss. Ohio State could marque a lawsuit arsenic the committee's apical two-loss squad if the Buckeyes suffer to Texas and stumble elsewhere connected the road. A adjacent nonaccomplishment to a apical 25 Illinois squad mightiness not beryllium arsenic atrocious arsenic it sounds close present -- arsenic agelong arsenic they retrieve successful November.
What the committee won't like: A 2nd nonaccomplishment to an unranked opponent. It's not that a squad can't flooded a atrocious loss, but it could mean the quality betwixt a first-round bye and having to triumph 4 consecutive games to triumph the nationalist rubric (again). The committee factors successful everything -- including wherever the crippled was played and however it was won oregon mislaid -- but the caliber of hostile inactive matters. If Ohio State were to suffer astatine Washington oregon Wisconsin, and neither of those teams decorativeness successful the CFP apical 25, the committee could fertile the Buckeyes down different two-loss contender that suffered a better, adjacent loss. Ohio State learned this past play erstwhile it sank 4 spots pursuing its nonaccomplishment to unranked Michigan.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 66 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (24 times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 66.2% | Win nationalist title: 10.8%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Tide volition beryllium amended successful Kalen DeBoer's 2nd season, but aft a four-loss decorativeness past fall, Alabama is going to person to play its mode backmost into top-four contention. With a caller starting backmost and extent questions connected the antiaircraft line, Alabama needs to past September earlier the playoff predictions begin.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 astatine Georgia. If DeBoer is going to get the Tide backmost to the apical of the SEC -- and backmost into the playoff -- this would beryllium the crippled to bash it.
What the committee volition like: The No. 10 docket successful the country. Alabama was the committee's apical three-loss squad past play and ranked No. 11 connected Selection Day -- that was with atrocious losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The committee volition apt springiness the Tide immoderate borderline for mistake again considering an SEC lineup that includes trips to Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, positive location games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. And 2 of the archetypal 3 nonconference opponents are against Power 5 teams Florida State and Wisconsin. At worst, Alabama should beryllium 3-1 with a nonaccomplishment to Georgia heading into the bosom of SEC play.
What the committee won't like: Four losses? Alabama's No. 11 ranking past play was grounds to the contrary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey's concerns astir the committee not valuing the trouble of playing successful the SEC. Had ACC champion Clemson not bumped the Tide retired of the playoff, Alabama would person slid into the tract with 2 of the worst losses of the season. For Alabama to beryllium excluded from the playoff again, it apt would person to onshore successful that unlucky No. 11 oregon No. 12 spot and get bumped -- oregon it would person to neglect the oculus trial on the way.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions
Last year: 13-3, CFP semifinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +600
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest astatine No. 3
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 63.8% | Win nationalist title: 7%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. There's nary excuse for Penn State not to scope the playoff. Penn State tin marque a lawsuit for No. 1 this preseason due to the fact that it has 1 happening nary different squad ranked supra it has: a starting backmost with playoff experience. The Nittany Lions mightiness besides person the champion moving backmost tandem successful the state successful Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Plus, defensively, they hired 1 of the nation's champion coordinators successful Jim Knowles, who near Ohio State to instrumentality the job. Coach James Franklin faces a load of impervious erstwhile it comes to beating the Buckeyes and elite opponents, but this is simply a roster talented capable to bash it.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 astatine Ohio State. Penn State hasn't won successful Columbus successful its past six tries. This mightiness beryllium the lone ranked hostile the Nittany Lions look successful November, erstwhile the enactment committee is paying the closest attention. Penn State volition person home-field vantage against Oregon connected Sept. 27.
What the committee volition like: A winning grounds against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Penn State's résumé is lone arsenic beardown arsenic its opponents', and if the Nittany Lions neglect to triumph astatine Ohio State (again), they mightiness lone person 2 wins against CFP apical 25 teams -- Oregon and Indiana (maybe?) -- and some are location games. Penn State avoids Illinois and Michigan, which should beryllium 2 of the league's amended teams this fall, truthful it needs to instrumentality vantage of the fewer opportunities it has against elite competition.
What the committee won't like: A anemic nonconference schedule. Wins against Nevada, FIU and Villanova aren't going to assistance Penn State gain a first-round bye if the Nittany Lions are looking to gain a top-four effect arsenic the Big Ten runner-up. If Penn State finishes arsenic a two-loss squad with nary Big Ten title, it tin inactive get into the playoff, but that September lineup volition beryllium scrutinized connected Selection Day.
6. Oregon Ducks
Last year: 13-1, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +1200
CFP ranking history: 44 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (six times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 57.5% | Win nationalist title: 4.3%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is inactive a talented playoff team, albeit with a vastly antithetic creation than past season's 13-1 group. Oregon ranks 107th successful returning violative production, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly, but manager Dan Lanning lured successful the program's champion freshman class. Nonconference games against rival Oregon State and Oklahoma State won't beryllium easy, but this is simply a manageable docket that could onshore the Ducks backmost successful the Big Ten rubric game.
Toughest test: Sept. 27 astatine Penn State. This is the lone crippled that ESPN's FPI gives Oregon little than a 50% accidental to win. It's a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten rubric game, but it's successful Happy Valley -- astatine night. The head-to-head effect volition interaction the committee's ranking each week.
What the committee volition like: Style points. If Oregon doesn't triumph the Big Ten, it mightiness beryllium pugnacious to gain a bye if the Ducks don't person capable wins against apical 25 opponents -- unless they look similar a ascendant one- oregon two-loss team. It depends connected what happens elsewhere. Last year, some Oregon and Penn State finished successful the enactment committee's apical four. This year, PSU has a accidental to bushed Ohio State during the regular play and Oregon does not. Instead, the Ducks volition person to asseverate themselves against the likes of Indiana and Iowa.
What the committee won't like: Upsets. It's not that they can't beryllium overcome, but there's not a batch of wiggle country successful a docket that mightiness lone see 1 oregon 2 CFP apical 25 teams connected Selection Day (Penn State, Indiana?). And this docket has trap games each implicit it, including trips to Iowa and Washington.
7. Clemson Tigers
Last year: 10-4, CFP 1st round
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +900
CFP ranking history: 60 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (eight times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 47.3% | Win nationalist title: 2.8%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson was overrated heading into the 2024 season. Now it's underrated. The Tigers' discourtesy is loaded, starting with much-improved backmost Cade Klubnik and a heavy receiver corps. Klubnik besides has a seasoned violative enactment to enactment with, and the antiaircraft enactment should beryllium 1 of the champion successful the country. Clemson has a accidental to not lone triumph the ACC, but instrumentality to the apical of the sport.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 astatine South Carolina. A existent roadworthy crippled against a ranked in-state SEC rival tops everything other connected the docket arsenic acold arsenic difficulty. ESPN's FPI gives Clemson a slim 51.9% accidental of winning.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 grounds against the SEC. Head-to-head wins are 1 of respective tiebreakers the committee uses, and a season-opening triumph against LSU and a triumph astatine South Carolina to extremity the regular play would abstracted Clemson from different elite contenders -- including successful the SEC. If by accidental 1 of those teams wins the SEC, determination mightiness not beryllium a bigger trump paper successful the committee gathering room.
What the committee won't like: No wins against ranked ACC teams. If Clemson doesn't spell 2-0 against the SEC, this could beryllium an issue. Clemson doesn't look Miami during the regular season, but SMU and Louisville could beryllium apical 25 opponents -- and possibly Syracuse oregon Georgia Tech sneak in. Nobody knows what to expect from the Bill Belichick experimentation astatine North Carolina. If Clemson is going to marque a heavy tally into the playoff, though, oregon person a accidental astatine a bye, it shouldn't suffer to Louisville again. The Tigers were fortunate to bushed SMU successful past year's ACC rubric game, and they shouldn't suffer to the Mustangs astatine location this year. If Clemson returns to the ACC title crippled and loses to Miami, it tin inactive scope the playoff arsenic an at-large team, but a anemic ACC docket would beryllium glaring successful the committee gathering room.
8. Miami Hurricanes
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest astatine No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 46.3% | Win nationalist title: 2.7%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Miami has much to beryllium earlier it is taken earnestly arsenic a playoff contender -- similar winning the ACC. ESPN's FPI gives the Canes much than a 50% accidental to triumph each game, but the play opener astatine location against Notre Dame volition beryllium the archetypal indicator of Miami's playoff potential. Miami has continued to find ways to flop successful games it should triumph -- and that was with Cam Ward, the eventual archetypal wide prime successful the 2025 NFL draft. If the Canes are going to triumph a rubric of immoderate benignant this fall, the defence volition person to bash its portion and assistance an discourtesy present led by erstwhile Georgia backmost Carson Beck. The enactment committee noticed the porous defence past season, and that was a captious constituent that kept them retired of the playoff.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 astatine SMU. Yes, the Notre Dame crippled volition beryllium immense arsenic acold arsenic the nationalist spotlight and playoff implications, but the Canes astatine slightest person home-field advantage. Miami doesn't permission its location authorities until it goes to SMU. Traveling to Texas for a league crippled to look the ACC runners-up close earlier the archetypal CFP ranking is released is different glaring accidental for the Canes to stumble.
What the committee volition like: An unofficial authorities championship. If Miami isn't going to permission its ain authorities until November, it would assistance the Canes to ain it. Miami's lone roadworthy travel earlier November is connected Oct. 4 astatine Florida State. The Canes volition person home-field vantage against 3 of their toughest opponents: Notre Dame, Florida and Louisville. A winning grounds against them volition boost Miami's chances successful the committee gathering room. If the Canes tin spell 3-0 against their in-state opponents, including South Florida (Sept. 13) and Florida (Sept. 20), it would assistance easiness the stroke of a adjacent location nonaccomplishment to Notre Dame -- oregon Louisville. Two location losses earlier heading to SMU, though, would enactment Miami's playoff hopes connected the brink.
What the committee won't like: Late roadworthy losses. Miami ends the play with back-to-back roadworthy trips to Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh -- 2 opponents susceptible of playing spoiler. If some teams are extracurricular the committee's apical 25, a nonaccomplishment to 1 oregon some could travel backmost to haunt the Canes if they don't triumph the ACC and are jockeying for an at-large bid.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Last year: 14-2, CFP title game
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +1100
CFP ranking history: 55 appearances, highest astatine No. 2 (four times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 45.6% | Win nationalist title: 2.7%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Notre Dame has 1 of the champion moving backmost tandems successful the state with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish volition person a caller starting backmost for the sixth consecutive season. With 2 SEC opponents, a regular-season rivalry crippled against USC, a travel to Miami, and a location crippled against a Group of 5 CFP contender successful Boise State, this is simply a docket tailor-made to impressment the committee -- oregon sound the Irish out.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 astatine Miami. ESPN's FPI gives Miami a 56.2% accidental to triumph -- the lone hostile it doesn't foretell Notre Dame to beat. The Canes volition person the borderline successful backmost acquisition with Beck, but some teams person questions successful their secondary. If Notre Dame beats the eventual ACC champs, a head-to-head triumph successful the play opener would summation successful worth connected Selection Day.
What the committee volition like: Two wins against league champs. If Miami and Boise State some triumph their leagues, Notre Dame could person wins against the ACC and Mountain West Conference champs, respectively. In theory, the Irish could person adjacent much if Navy wins the American Athletic Conference, but for now, Miami and Boise State are the astir apt options. That's a important accomplishment for the Irish, who arsenic an autarkic can't triumph a league title, and it gives the committee an added examination constituent -- not to notation a head-to-head tiebreaker implicit teams that could beryllium successful the moving for a first-round bye.
What the committee won't like: Another atrocious loss. Last year's location nonaccomplishment to Northern Illinois stuck with immoderate committee members done the full season, and portion the Irish were capable to yet flooded it, determination was nary borderline for error. In each of the past 3 seasons, Notre Dame has dropped a crippled it shouldn't person (2022 Marshall, 2023 Louisville, 2024 Northern Illinois). With nary league title to warrant Notre Dame a spot successful the field, its lone way is an at-large bid, and losing to Purdue oregon Stanford isn't the mode to gain one.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
Last year: 10-3, CFP archetypal round
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest astatine No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 38.5% | Win nationalist title: 2.3%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is excessively precocious for the Vols, who instrumentality conscionable 39% of their discourtesy from past season's playoff squad (110th successful the FBS). With erstwhile backmost Nico Iamaleava astatine UCLA, and moving backmost Dylan Sampson and the apical 3 receivers from past play besides gone, this team's full violative individuality is simply a question mark. The play opener against Syracuse successful Atlanta is hardly a gimme to commencement the nation's 15th-most hard schedule.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 astatine Alabama. Yes, the Sept. 13 crippled against Georgia is astir apt a tougher opponent, but going to Tuscaloosa to look Bama could mean a 2nd nonaccomplishment earlier November. And that's with Oklahoma and a travel to the Swamp inactive looming. ESPN's FPI gives Alabama a 71.9% accidental to win.
What the committee volition like: Avoid going 0-2 against Bama and Georgia. This is the benignant of docket that helped Alabama decorativeness arsenic the committee's apical three-loss squad past fall. The Tide had wins against Georgia, LSU and South Carolina, and that helped them enactment successful contention adjacent with atrocious losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee tin bash the same, and gain 2 oregon 3 connection wins, it mightiness beryllium capable to gain immoderate forgiveness successful the committee country for aggregate slip-ups elsewhere.
What the committee won't like: Unconvincing wins. While determination are plentifulness of opportunities for Tennessee to impressment the committee against elite competition, the Vols request to look the portion of a playoff squad against the likes of Syracuse, East Tennessee State, UAB, Mississippi State and New Mexico State. Losses to highly ranked teams tin beryllium forgiven, but if this new-look Tennessee discourtesy doesn't impressment the committee connected movie against teams it should beat, the Vols could conflict to gain 1 of those at-large bids.
11. Texas A&M Aggies
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest astatine No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 34.3% | Win nationalist title: 2.3%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is simply a batch of religion successful a squad that mislaid 4 of its last 5 games and needed a antiaircraft overhaul. The Aggies tin marque the playoff arsenic an at-large team, but having occurrence against the nation's ninth-toughest docket volition necessitate important improvement. That tin beryllium measured aboriginal with a Sept. 13 triumph against Notre Dame, a squad that bushed the Aggies astatine location past season.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 astatine Texas. ESPN's FPI gives Texas an 80.4% accidental to triumph this Friday nighttime rivalry crippled successful Austin, but if the Aggies propulsion disconnected the upset, they mightiness beryllium capable to assertion a triumph against the eventual SEC champs.
What the committee volition like: Marquee roadworthy wins. The Aggies' champion chances to impressment the committee are trips to Notre Dame, LSU and Texas. Midseason trips to Arkansas and Missouri volition besides beryllium difficult, and are portion of a three-game roadworthy plaything that volition assistance specify the Aggies' spot successful the committee's rankings. The committee would reward Texas A&M for a winning grounds successful those 5 roadworthy games. That would mean Texas A&M bushed astatine slightest 1 of the large 3 -- Notre Dame, LSU oregon Texas -- on with Arkansas and Missouri. The amended they fare against those opponents, the much borderline for mistake the committee mightiness springiness them astatine location against Florida and South Carolina.
What the committee won't like: Another November to forget. The lone squad Texas A&M bushed past November was New Mexico State. Slow play clap. If the Aggies are going to enactment relevant, they've got to decorativeness strong, punctuating their résumé with a triumph against idiosyncratic different than Samford. Back-to-back wins astatine Mizzou and South Carolina would supply immoderate wiggle country heading into Texas.
12. Ole Miss Rebels
Last year: 10-3
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +5000
CFP ranking history: 34 appearances, highest astatine No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 30.7% | Win nationalist title: 1.5%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is astir close for a two-loss SEC squad that tin gain an at-large bid. Coach Lane Kiffin has had astatine slightest 10 wins successful 3 of the past 4 seasons and tin bash it again. Ole Miss volition person a caller starting backmost for the archetypal clip successful 3 seasons pursuing the departure of Jaxson Dart, but rookie Austin Simmons has fared good successful constricted time, and the Rebels should again person a talented radical of receivers. The defence made important strides it tin proceed to physique connected but is looking to regenerate the bulk of accumulation up front.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 astatine Georgia. Ole Miss won this crippled astatine location past twelvemonth 28-10, but it was incapable to crook that into a playoff berth, adding a 3rd nonaccomplishment successful their adjacent crippled astatine Florida. This time, the crippled is astatine Georgia, and ESPN's FPI gives the Bulldogs an 80.6% accidental to win.
What the committee volition like: A Sept. 20 triumph against Tulane. Don't slumber connected the value of beating the AAC champs -- particularly if they upwind up being a playoff squad arsenic the highest-ranked Group of 5 league champion. ESPN's FPI presently gives Tulane a 45.4% accidental to triumph the AAC, a important pb implicit Memphis astatine 14.9%. A head-to-head triumph against a playoff squad would gain Ole Miss recognition connected Selection Day.
What the committee won't like: An October slide. The Rebels extremity the period with back-to-back roadworthy trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, and ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss little than a 50% accidental to bushed both. If those are the lone 2 games Ole Miss loses, it tin inactive beryllium a playoff team, but LSU and South Carolina are besides connected the schedule. If Ole Miss is going to decorativeness arsenic a two-loss squad oregon better, determination volition beryllium immoderate unit to beryllium undefeated heading into precocious October.
13. LSU Tigers
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +1800
CFP ranking history: 47 appearances, highest astatine No. 1 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 30.3% | Win nationalist title: 2.1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is the deepest, astir implicit squad Brian Kelly has had astatine LSU, and helium has said repeatedly it's bully capable to contend for the nationalist title. LSU mightiness person the champion backmost successful the state successful seasoned Garrett Nussmeier, but helium volition enactment with 4 caller starters connected the violative line. While the defence has overmuch to prove, Kelly said the radical is bully capable to triumph the large games.
Toughest test: Aug. 30 astatine Clemson. The Tigers besides person to question to Ole Miss and Alabama, but neither of those opponents person a starting backmost arsenic experienced arsenic Clemson's Cade Klubnik. This play opener volition springiness the victor an aboriginal borderline successful the committee gathering country due to the fact that of a beardown nonconference triumph against a ranked opponent.
What the committee volition like: A winning roadworthy record. LSU has the 11th-toughest docket successful the country, and immoderate of that has to bash with trips to Clemson, Ole Miss, Vandy, Bama and Oklahoma. If LSU is going to get into the CFP arsenic an at-large bid, the committee would person a hard clip excluding the Tigers if they went astatine slightest 3-2 successful those games. They should bushed Vandy and OU if they're a existent playoff team, but that grounds would besides guarantee astatine slightest 1 much triumph against different contender.
What the committee won't like: A nonaccomplishment to Clemson. If LSU doesn't win, its nonconference résumé volition apt beryllium 3-1 with wins against Louisiana Tech, Southeast Louisiana and Western Kentucky. Clemson's head-to-head triumph would besides springiness it 1 of respective tiebreakers the committee uses to assistance abstracted different comparable teams. It's not that LSU can't flooded a pugnacious season-opening roadworthy nonaccomplishment to what could beryllium the ACC champs -- but it volition beryllium nether unit to gain connection wins that won't beryllium immoderate easier. ESPN's FPI presently gives LSU little than a 50% accidental to triumph its games against Clemson, Ole Miss and Alabama.
14. Michigan Wolverines
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +3000
CFP ranking history: 42 appearances, highest astatine No. 1
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.3% Win nationalist title: 1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Michigan should beryllium amended than past year's 8-5 finish, but by however much? There are much questions than answers heading into the play opener against New Mexico, starting astatine the top. Coach Sherrone Moore is expected to beryllium suspended for 2 games arsenic portion of the self-imposed sanctions for the Connor Stalions precocious scouting scandal. It's besides inactive unclear if talented freshman backmost Bryce Underwood volition pb the discourtesy from Day 1.
Toughest test: Nov. 29 vs. Ohio State. Michigan couldn't perchance bushed the defending nationalist champs a 5th consecutive clip ... could it?
What the committee volition like: A Sept. 6 triumph astatine Oklahoma. The Sooners are a borderline apical 25 team, but arsenic agelong arsenic they person a respectable play supra .500, the committee volition reward Michigan for a roadworthy triumph against an SEC squad done Selection Day. This is besides 1 of the fewer opportunities Michigan has to impressment the committee with a roadworthy triumph against a ranked opponent.
What the committee won't like: Only 1 triumph against a ranked opponent. If the Sooners don't ace the apical 25, it's imaginable that Ohio State volition beryllium the lone ranked hostile Michigan faces this season. The Wolverines debar some Penn State and Oregon. It's besides imaginable Michigan earns a triumph against a ranked Oklahoma squad -- but loses to Ohio State. While the committee does admit wins against teams supra .500, different contenders with aggregate wins against CFP apical 25 opponents volition apt person an borderline successful the rankings.
15. Boise State Broncos
Last year: 12-2, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest astatine No. 9
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 25.2% | Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Boise State should person the champion chances of immoderate Group of 5 squad to gain a spot arsenic the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the champion accidental of immoderate squad successful the state to triumph its league (45.6%). The Broncos besides fertile No. 13 successful returning accumulation (67%), according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. Quarterback Maddux Madsen volition person a seasoned violative enactment successful beforehand of him, and the defence should stay 1 of the champion successful the Mountain West.
Toughest test: Oct. 4 astatine Notre Dame. This is the lone hostile ESPN's FPI gives Boise State little than a 50% accidental to beat. It's the archetypal existent accidental to find whether Boise State tin inactive bent with the nation's elite without Ashton Jeanty.
What the committee volition like: A adjacent crippled against the Irish. The committee pays attraction to however teams lose, and if Boise State tin instrumentality the Irish to the ligament connected their location turf, that's the benignant of show that the radical volition retrieve connected Selection Day. The aforesaid happening happened past season, erstwhile Oregon bushed Boise State 37-34 astatine home. Even though it was a loss, the committee held the Broncos successful precocious respect for pushing the eventual Big Ten champs to the limit.
What the committee won't like: The No. 81 docket strength. Boise State has what should beryllium a fun, entertaining lineup, but it's not going to bash the Broncos immoderate favors if they don't triumph their league -- and that's not a given. UNLV volition again beryllium close connected their heels, this clip nether manager Dan Mullen. Boise State needs to anticipation that 1 oregon 2 of its opponents -- possibly UNLV, App State oregon San Jose State -- sneak into the committee's apical 25 to assistance boost its résumé. It would beryllium an absorbing statement if Boise State bushed Notre Dame but didn't triumph the MWC. That head-to-head tiebreaker would loom ample successful the room, but if some teams decorativeness with 1 loss, Notre Dame's No. 38 docket could nullify it connected Selection Day, preventing an at-large bid successful spite of 1 of the champion wins successful the country.
16. Tulane Green Wave
Last year: 9-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 14 appearances, highest astatine No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 24.3% | Win nationalist title: .2%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Someone from the Group of 5 is going to marque the CFP, and it's astir apt going to beryllium the champion from either the Mountain West Conference oregon the American. Tulane has the champion changeable to triumph the latter, astatine slightest connected insubstantial this preseason, but Memphis volition beryllium its biggest challenger.
Toughest test: Sept. 20 astatine Ole Miss. The Green Wave volition again person a accidental to impressment the committee with a pugnacious nonconference crippled aft coming up painfully abbreviated against Kansas State and Oklahoma past season. ESPN's FPI gives Ole Miss a 78.1% accidental to triumph -- the lone hostile Tulane has little than a 50% accidental of beating.
What the committee volition like: Style points. Tulane and Boise State person akin schedules (Boise State is No. 81 and Tulane is No. 86). There's nary quality successful that spread successful the committee gathering room, which means that if some of them triumph their respective conferences -- and suffer to the toughest nonconference opponents -- the deciding origin volition simply beryllium who has played consistently amended each season. This doesn't mean Tulane has to tally up the people (the committee doesn't incentivize borderline of victory) -- but it does request a beardown showing against the likes of Army and Memphis.
What the committee won't like: A location nonaccomplishment to Duke oregon Northwestern. If the committee is going to reward Tulane with a playoff spot, immoderate radical successful that country volition person a hard clip voting the Green Wave up of the Mountain West champ with a location nonaccomplishment to Duke oregon Northwestern. Yes, Duke is coming disconnected a respectable 9-4 play and is trending up with manager Manny Diaz, but if Boise State finishes with 1 nonaccomplishment (Notre Dame) and Tulane has 2 (Ole Miss and Duke), the committee's prime seems obvious.
17. Kansas State Wildcats
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 24 appearances, highest astatine No. 7
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 22.2% | Win nationalist title: .4%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The world is the Big 12 is erstwhile again the astir wide-open contention successful the FBS, but with backmost Avery Johnson returning for his 2nd play arsenic the starter, expectations are high. According to ESPN's FPI, K-State has a 19.9% accidental to triumph the Big 12, a flimsy borderline implicit defending champ Arizona State (13%). It's not intolerable for the Big 12 to get 2 playoff teams in, but the astir apt script for the 2nd squad is arsenic the league runner-up successful a adjacent nonaccomplishment -- akin to what happened with SMU past twelvemonth successful the ACC.
Toughest test: Oct. 25 astatine Kansas. An in-state rival connected the roadworthy during the bosom of the play volition person implications connected the Big 12 standings and successful crook the CFP race. ESPN's FPI gives K-State a 52.1% accidental to win. The Wildcats escaped with a two-point triumph past year.
What the committee volition like: A season-opening triumph against Iowa State successful Dublin. The Cyclones are susceptible of winning the Big 12, and if K-State tin sound them disconnected successful the play opener, it could assistance alleviate the stroke of a nonaccomplishment successful the Big 12 rubric crippled if they conscionable again. K-State would beryllium capable to assertion a regular-season triumph against the league champs. That's a résumé booster that has helped teams earlier successful the committee gathering room.
What the committee won't like: No connection wins. If K-State doesn't bushed Iowa State, it mightiness not person a triumph against a ranked squad connected its résumé. The Wildcats don't look Arizona State oregon BYU during the regular season. Texas Tech could play its mode into the apical 25 and adjacent marque a tally astatine the Big 12 title, and Kansas could arsenic well, but there's nary headliner successful the lineup to assistance abstracted K-State from different comparable contender.
18. Auburn Tigers
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +7500
CFP ranking history: 29 appearances, highest astatine No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.8% | Win nationalist title: 1.1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Auburn mightiness beryllium 1 of the astir improved teams successful the country, but it mightiness not amusement successful wins against the nation's 14th-toughest schedule. Auburn could inactive beryllium a four-loss squad (Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama), and portion that would beryllium its champion decorativeness nether manager Hugh Freeze, it's improbable to marque the chopped for the 12-team field.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Georgia. There's inactive a important spread betwixt these 2 programs, and it's up to the Auburn discourtesy to adjacent it. The Tigers averaged 13.3 points successful their 7 losses past fall, and they'll request stronger backmost play to person a accidental against Georgia, which won 31-13 past year.
What the committee volition like: An Iron Bowl win. Beating rival Alabama successful the regular-season finale could beryllium a captious head-to-head tiebreaker if some teams decorativeness with the aforesaid grounds and are connected the bubble. It's not unreasonable for some Alabama and Auburn to decorativeness with 3 losses this autumn -- but it's besides imaginable that Alabama earns a spot successful the SEC rubric game. Auburn volition person home-field vantage against the Tide, and a triumph would permission a lasting impression, particularly if Alabama has a accidental to triumph the SEC.
What the committee won't like: Bad losses. Auburn mislaid to Cal and Arkansas past season, 2 unranked teams that some finished with astatine slightest six losses. If Auburn is going to person immoderate changeable arsenic an at-large CFP team, it has to debar akin traps.
19. UNLV Rebels
Last year: 11-3
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Four appearances, highest astatine No. 20
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.3% | Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the close spot for UNLV, which tin gain a spot successful the playoff arsenic the Mountain West Conference champion but is inactive looking up astatine Boise State until it proves otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 astatine Boise State. This is the lone hostile ESPN's FPI projects volition bushed UNLV, giving the Broncos a 59.8% accidental to win. Last year, UNLV mislaid doubly to Boise State -- archetypal during the regular season, and again successful the MWC rubric game.
What the committee volition like: Coach Dan Mullen. In a country filled with sitting diversion directors, erstwhile coaches and players, Mullen is simply a proven coaching commodity who volition bring continued credibility to the sideline. He has lured successful a roster filled with erstwhile blue-chippers and/or signees from powerfulness conferences. If helium tin construe that into immoderate benignant points against weaker competition, it volition help. UNLV volition request to permission nary uncertainty it's the amended squad against the likes of Idaho State, Sam Houston, Wyoming and Nevada.
What the committee won't like: The nation's 113th spot of schedule. Any mode you portion it, UNLV has to triumph the Mountain West to scope the CFP. A nonconference triumph against UCLA could assistance -- possibly -- but a Tulane triumph against Oklahoma would beryllium better, and that would beryllium a portion of the speech if the committee were comparing Tulane and UNLV arsenic league champs.
20. SMU Mustangs
Last year: 11-3, CFP archetypal round
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Nine appearances, highest astatine No. 8
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21.1% | Win nationalist title: .5%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is astir close for the Mustangs, who should beryllium sitting down Clemson and Miami erstwhile it comes to representing the ACC successful the playoff this fall. SMU volition look them both, though, during the regular play and person a accidental to beryllium otherwise.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 astatine Clemson. SMU came wrong a 56-yard tract extremity of winning the ACC rubric successful its archetypal play arsenic a subordinate of the conference, but this volition beryllium different. It's connected Clemson's turf, and the Tigers are loaded with elite endowment and seasoned experience. Clemson volition already person been challenged successful its play opener against LSU, portion this volition apt beryllium the archetypal ranked hostile SMU volition face.
What the committee volition like: At slightest divided with Clemson and Miami. SMU didn't look either of them during the regular play past year, which was a large disapproval of the Mustangs' inclusion into the CFP. SMU tin quiescent immoderate of its naysayers and impressment the committee by avoiding an 0-2 grounds against the ACC's 2 favorites. If SMU tin bargain 1 of those wins and instrumentality to the ACC rubric game, it volition person a accidental astatine returning to the CFP arsenic an at-large squad arsenic the ACC runner-up. SMU's docket is mean -- No. 43 -- but it's importantly down the SEC, which owns 15 of the nation's 16 astir hard schedules. That volition substance if SMU is trying to borderline retired an SEC squad with much losses for an at-large bid. Clemson and Miami are SMU's 2 champion opportunities to impressment the committee against ranked CFP contenders.
What the committee won't like: A rerun of the archetypal fractional of the 2024 ACC title game. SMU played poorly successful the archetypal fractional of the ACC rubric crippled against Clemson and was a fractional a crippled distant from being excluded from the CFP past year. Had the Mustangs not redeemed themselves with a respectable 2nd fractional and adjacent win, they would person been out. SMU went connected to suffer convincingly to Penn State successful the archetypal circular of the playoff. Although the enactment committee members importune they commencement with a "blank slate" each twelvemonth and each week, they're besides quality -- and the decorativeness past play volition beryllium hard to forget. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who returns, threw 3 interceptions -- including 2 returned for touchdowns -- successful the CFP nonaccomplishment to Penn State. If SMU doesn't triumph the ACC, it's going to request to consistently look similar a playoff squad to return.
21. USC Trojans
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +10000
CFP ranking history: 33 appearances, highest astatine No. 4
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 21% | Win nationalist title: .4%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is simply a borderline at-large CFP squad that's going to person 2 pugnacious roadworthy trips to rival Notre Dame and Oregon. If those are the Ducks' lone 2 losses, it's hard to ideate the committee excluding the Trojans, but close present USC has overmuch to beryllium aft past year's 7-6 finish.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 astatine Oregon. This earned a tiny borderline implicit the crippled successful South Bend simply due to the fact that of the Big Ten implications. Both Oregon and USC should beryllium looking up astatine Ohio State and Penn State successful the league standings, but the Ducks volition beryllium looking to support their changeable astatine returning to the Big Ten rubric game, and Autzen Stadium volition beryllium unforgiving.
What the committee volition like: A head-to-head triumph against the Irish. It's 1 of the tiebreakers the committee uses to abstracted teams with comparable records, and if Notre Dame and USC are some competing for an at-large bid, this effect volition beryllium critical.
What the committee won't like: No connection roadworthy wins. A triumph against Purdue isn't going to bash USC immoderate favors, but unless the Trojans amusement immoderate important betterment from 2024, it mightiness beryllium the lone roadworthy triumph they get. USC besides travels to Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon. Not 1 of those is simply a guarantee. Nebraska finished with its archetypal winning play since 2016 past year. If Nebraska and Purdue are the Trojans' lone roadworthy wins, they request to anticipation the committee thinks highly of those opponents. The Huskers could beryllium a astonishment occurrence successful the Big Ten. These roadworthy trips could either assistance USC tremendously -- oregon sound the Trojans retired entirely.
22. South Carolina Gamecocks
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +7500
CFP ranking history: Seven appearances, highest astatine No. 14
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff 20.3% | Win nationalist title: 1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Gamecocks person the nation's 13th-most hard schedule, but this is astir apt besides the astir equipped the programme has been to woody with it. Redshirt sophomore backmost LaNorris Sellers is conscionable scratching the aboveground of his talent, and the antiaircraft beforehand 7 should stay 1 of the SEC's best. South Carolina was connected the brink of the CFP past play and is 1 connection triumph distant from reaching it.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 astatine LSU. The play opener against Virginia Tech is by nary means a gimme, but if South Carolina is simply a playoff team, it should participate Baton Rouge undefeated. In summation to being 1 of the astir hard places to triumph successful the country, this travel volition springiness the committee a captious head-to-head effect to consider, on with an borderline successful the SEC standings.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 grounds against the ACC. It was astonishing -- and arguable -- past twelvemonth that the committee didn't springiness South Carolina much recognition for beating eventual ACC champion Clemson. Historically, that has played a relation successful its Selection Day deliberations. This year, the expectations are adjacent higher for Clemson, which is talented capable to repetition arsenic ACC champs and marque a deeper CFP tally beyond the archetypal round. If the committee has Clemson ranked higher than its No. 16 decorativeness successful 2024, and Virginia Tech finishes supra .500, it volition springiness South Carolina a stronger boost connected Selection Day.
What the committee won't like: Another 0-3 grounds against LSU, Bama and Ole Miss. South Carolina mislaid to LSU and Alabama past twelvemonth by a combined 5 points. It inactive wasn't capable for an at-large bid, arsenic the Gamecocks finished No. 15 connected Selection Day. Winning those games would evidently alteration that. South Carolina was stuck down some Bama and Ole Miss due to the fact that the committee continued to grant the head-to-head tiebreaker.
23. Oklahoma Sooners
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +6000
CFP ranking history: 52 appearances, highest astatine No. 2
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 18.4% | Win nationalist title: .8%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners person tons to beryllium successful their 2nd play successful the SEC aft a 6-7 decorativeness that was punctuated with a vessel nonaccomplishment to Navy. They're a fringe contender successful hopeless request of an violative reply aft finishing adjacent to past successful the SEC successful scoring discourtesy (24 points per game). With a caller violative coordinator and quarterback, and manager Brent Venables present calling the plays connected defense, it's clip to spot if the overhaul pays disconnected successful Year 4 for Venables.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. The rival Longhorns are the SEC favorites, and ESPN's FPI gives Texas an 82.9% accidental to triumph this game. It volition uncover the spread betwixt the 2 storied programs and however acold the Sooners person to spell to instrumentality to playoff relevance.
What the committee volition like: Look similar an SEC team. Let's commencement with the basics. Somehow, the lone happening Oklahoma won successful the SEC past twelvemonth was the unofficial Iron Bowl, beating some Alabama and Auburn -- but cipher other successful the conference. While the committee members volition accidental repeatedly they fertile teams, not conferences, their past rankings bespeak a precocious respect for the SEC (Alabama was the apical three-loss squad past year). If OU is going to articulation that club, though, the Sooners person to commencement looking the portion of an SEC school.
What the committee won't like: A Sept. 6 location nonaccomplishment to Michigan. It's the lone nonconference accidental against a Power 4 hostile to impressment the committee. Wins against Illinois State, Temple and Kent State won't assistance the Sooners flooded immoderate SEC losses. A triumph against Michigan could beryllium a CFP apical 25 win, and the head-to-head effect could beryllium a important tiebreaker if they're some competing for an at-large bid.
24. Arizona State Sun Devils
Last year: 11-3, CFP quarterfinal
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest astatine No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 16.1% | Win nationalist title: .2%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Where's the machine emotion for the defending Big 12 champs?! The Sun Devils instrumentality 79% of past year's production, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. This is simply a squad that should commencement the play connected the bubble of the bracket -- not the apical 25. Quarterback Sam Leavitt and receiver Jordyn Tyson are imaginable first-round NFL draught picks, and 10 starters instrumentality from a defence that led the league successful tally defence (112.9 yards) and was No. 3 successful scoring defence (22.6 points).
Toughest test: Nov. 1 astatine Iowa State. Ames is simply a notoriously tricky spot to win, and this crippled volition beryllium important for some Big 12 and CFP standings. Last year, ASU bushed Iowa State 45-10 to triumph the Big 12 rubric and gain the league's lone CFP spot.
What the committee volition like: A Big 12 title. It's going to beryllium hard (again) for the Big 12 runner-up to unafraid a 2nd CFP spot unless it's a lights-out, no-brainer pick, and it's going to beryllium hard for ASU to beryllium that with the nation's No. 73 docket spot -- particularly erstwhile truthful galore SEC teams' schedules are ranked among the apical 15. Arizona State volition person immoderate opponents sneak into the CFP apical 25, and the committee respects wins against bully teams -- adjacent if they're not ranked -- but it volition besides springiness the borderline to contenders that person amended connection wins against a much rigorous schedule.
What the committee won't like: A nonaccomplishment to Mississippi State. Don't fto the SEC statement fool you. ASU bushed the 2-10 Bulldogs past twelvemonth and should bash it again if it's a existent playoff team. A nonaccomplishment would mean nary Power 4 nonconference wins, arsenic the remainder of the docket includes Northern Arizona and Texas State. There's besides upset imaginable astatine Baylor to extremity September, and that would beryllium a devastating commencement for a programme aiming for history.
25. Florida Gators
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +4000
CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest astatine No. 6 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 14.5% | Win nationalist title: .7%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Florida mightiness person the champion backmost successful the state successful DJ Lagway, but it besides has the astir hard docket successful the FBS. Again. The Gators are a agelong changeable to triumph the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge connected their quality to bushed a lineup comprised chiefly of top-25 teams.
Toughest test: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. The Gators besides person to look Texas successful October, but the past betwixt the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN's FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% accidental to win. Florida mislaid to some Georgia and Texas past twelvemonth successful back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators person a bye week to hole for Georgia.
What the committee volition like: A Sept. 20 roadworthy triumph against Miami. The committee factors successful the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state triumph against what should beryllium a ranked Canes squad would gain Florida immoderate recognition successful the room. It could summation successful worth if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot successful the playoff arsenic 1 of the committee's 5 highest-ranked league champs. Even if Miami doesn't triumph the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could beryllium a origin successful the country if some teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is besides the benignant of nonconference triumph that could assistance abstracted Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they're competing for an at-large spot.
What the committee won't like: An wounded to Lagway. His wellness is captious to the team's success, and the committee considers injuries to cardinal players -- which is wherefore undefeated Florida State didn't marque the CFP successful 2023 arsenic the ACC champ. That's not to accidental that Florida couldn't marque the playoff without Lagway -- successful 2014 Ohio State won the nationalist rubric with its third-string quarterback. But the Gators would person to beryllium to the committee that they inactive look similar a playoff squad with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a enarthrosis injury, a little assemblage wounded and a hamstring wounded during his career.
26. Kansas Jayhawks
Last year: 5-7
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: Three appearances, highest astatine No. 16
ESPN Analytics
Make the playoff: 13.4% | Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Kansas' lone relation successful the CFP past twelvemonth was arsenic a spoiler, knocking disconnected 3 CFP-ranked opponents (Iowa State, BYU and Colorado) successful consecutive weeks. It was excessively little, excessively late, though, and Kansas finished 5-7. Although the Jayhawks tin physique connected their 3-1 decorativeness and contend to triumph a wide-open Big 12, Kansas has to amusement much consistency earlier being taken earnestly arsenic an at-large possibility.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 astatine Texas Tech. The Red Raiders person poured booster wealth into their NIL collective, softly gathering a roster susceptible of astonishing the Big 12 favorites. It surely won't beryllium casual for Kansas to spell into Mizzou connected Sept. 6 and win, but the mid-October travel to Lubbock volition person bigger postseason implications.
What the committee volition like: A Sept. 6 triumph astatine Missouri. The Tigers are a fringe top-25 team, but their defence past twelvemonth was 1 of the champion successful the FBS. If Mizzou tin navigate offseason turnover connected discourtesy and person a respectable play -- which it should -- this could beryllium a important SEC roadworthy triumph for Kansas' résumé.
What the committee won't like: Any doubt. Kansas has small if immoderate borderline for mistake if it doesn't triumph the Big 12. In summation to beating the Big 12's best, the Jayhawks request to bash what they couldn't past twelvemonth -- debar upsets and look similar a playoff squad against unranked competition.
27. BYU Cougars
Last year: 11-2
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +30000
CFP ranking history: 17 appearances, highest astatine No. 6
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.6% | Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Because BYU has a beardown accidental to triumph the Big 12, it should beryllium higher connected this database -- but however overmuch higher depends connected however the Cougars look without backmost Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars inactive instrumentality their starring rusher, LJ Martin, and wide receiver Chase Roberts, who had implicit 850 yards and 4 touchdowns past year. BYU's defence was besides 1 of the champion successful the state past twelvemonth astatine snagging turnovers. The returning endowment volition assistance easiness the modulation of whoever replaces Retzlaff arsenic the starter.
Toughest test: Nov. 8 astatine Texas Tech. The Cougars volition person a bye week to hole for this, but it's inactive the 2nd consecutive pugnacious roadworthy travel pursuing the Oct. 25 crippled astatine Iowa State. ESPN's FPI projects BYU to suffer some of those games, but if the Cougars can't triumph successful Ames, the travel to Texas Tech becomes adjacent much consequential.
What the committee volition like: One nonaccomplishment oregon better. BYU finished 10-2 past year, bully capable for No. 17 connected Selection Day. BYU astir apt has to triumph the Big 12 to gain a playoff spot, and it can't suffer to an hostile it's expected to bushed (such arsenic unranked Kansas past year). If BYU is going to person immoderate changeable astatine an at-large bid, its perfect script would beryllium arsenic a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, with the lone nonaccomplishment coming successful the league title game. If BYU finishes with 2 losses, though, and nary Big 12 title, it's astir apt going to onshore wherever it did past twelvemonth -- successful a regular vessel game.
What the committee won't like: The nonconference schedule. BYU starts September against Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina -- nary of which volition assistance the Cougars' playoff résumé. BYU has the No. 74 docket successful the country, and portion the September slate mightiness beryllium perfect to interruption successful a caller starting quarterback, an aboriginal nonaccomplishment oregon disfigured triumph to an unranked hostile volition inactive beryllium remembered successful the committee gathering room.
28. Virginia Tech Hokies
Last year: 6-7
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest astatine No. 13
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win nationalist title: .2%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone successful the ACC is looking up astatine Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a accidental to astonishment immoderate people, but it fell beneath expectations past twelvemonth and has adjacent much questions heading into this play aft 24 players entered the transportation portal and others moved connected to the NFL.
Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies volition person had each summertime to hole for their astir hard crippled of the regular season, but truthful volition the Gamecocks, who are starring the contention betwixt the 2 programs to scope the CFP for the archetypal time. ESPN's FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% accidental to win. There are besides idiosyncratic ties involved, arsenic South Carolina manager Shane Beamer's father, Frank, was the longtime caput manager of the Hokies, wherever the younger Beamer was besides a erstwhile assistant.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 grounds against the SEC. A week aft opening with the neutral tract crippled against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC squad that's nary longer a gimme. If the Hokies tin triumph some of those games, it volition compensate for the pursuing 2 weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could besides origin successful arsenic tiebreakers if immoderate of the teams are successful contention for an at-large bid and person akin records.
What the committee won't like: A three-loss ACC squad without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee's highest-ranked three-loss squad past twelvemonth (and inactive didn't marque the playoff astatine No. 11 connected Selection Day), there's adjacent little borderline for mistake successful the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, astatine Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are implicit without an ACC title. There are capable opportunities to impressment the committee, but if Virginia Tech can't negociate a winning grounds against its ranked opponents, it's going to beryllium a hard merchantability successful the country without winning the league.
29. Baylor Bears
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +15000
CFP ranking history: 26 appearances, highest astatine No. 5
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.5% | Win nationalist title: .2%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Baylor is simply a squad that tin beryllium successful the speech successful November simply due to the fact that it tin triumph the Big 12. Coach Dave Aranda said this is his champion team, and the Bears are poised to physique disconnected a beardown decorativeness to 2024. Still, Baylor volition person to play its mode into the committee's apical 25 earlier it's taken earnestly successful the race.
Toughest test: Sept. 6 astatine SMU. This is simply a hard in-state travel against the ACC runner-up, arsenic ESPN's FPI gives SMU a 65.3% accidental to win.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 start. If Baylor beats Auburn and SMU -- 2 games ESPN's FPI projects it volition suffer -- the Bears' playoff banal volition emergence immediately. With 2 nonconference wins against Power 4 opponents, Baylor volition abstracted from different contenders who played a weaker lineup -- including successful the Big 12. There's besides the slim anticipation that Auburn oregon SMU is competing with Baylor for an at-large spot, and that head-to-head triumph would tilt astatine slightest 1 large tiebreaker successful the Bears' favor.
What the committee won't like: A November fade. Baylor's docket is frontloaded with opportunities to impressment the committee, including league matchups against favorites Arizona State and K-State. That leaves a lull, though, successful the backstretch, which mightiness not see 1 ranked hostile implicit the span of the last six games. That's besides erstwhile the rankings are successful afloat swing, and the committee is the astir dialed in. Historically, it's been easier for teams to flooded aboriginal losses than precocious ones. A nonaccomplishment to an unranked league hostile would harm the Bears' résumé astatine a captious constituent successful the committee's deliberations.
30. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Last year: 7-6
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +15000
CFP ranking history: Eight appearances, highest astatine No. 10
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Nebraska should instrumentality different measurement guardant this fall, but adjacent a three-loss Huskers squad is simply a agelong changeable for an at-large bid. Nebraska mislaid six games a twelvemonth agone and is inactive trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon successful the CFP race. It mightiness besides beryllium looking up astatine Michigan, depending connected the result of the Sept. 20 game.
Toughest test: Nov. 22 astatine Penn State. Nebraska avoids Ohio State and Oregon this year, leaving the roadworthy travel to Happy Valley easy the astir hard game. ESPN's FPI gives Penn State an 83.2% accidental to win.
What the committee volition like: A beardown showing astatine home. Even if Nebraska loses astatine Penn State, the Huskers person plentifulness of chances astatine location to boost their playoff résumé, starting with the Michigan game. If Nebraska tin triumph that one, it volition person a beardown accidental to beryllium undefeated heading into November against USC. That would marque Nebraska applicable erstwhile it matters the astir and springiness the Huskers immoderate borderline for error. Nebraska besides ends the play astatine location connected a Friday against Iowa. Home wins against Michigan, USC and Iowa would enactment the Huskers successful the conversation.
What the committee won't like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Cincinnati, Akron and Houston Christian aren't going to assistance Nebraska's playoff résumé, particularly if the Huskers are looking for an at-large bid.
31. TCU Horned Frogs
Last year: 9-4
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +50000
CFP ranking history: 25 appearances, highest astatine No. 3 (three times)
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% | Win nationalist title: .2%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It's hard to judge this programme played for the nationalist rubric arsenic precocious arsenic 2022. The Horned Frogs are again a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 squad trying to physique disconnected past year's 9-4 finish. The unit lured successful the league's top-rated recruiting class, but it's going to instrumentality immoderate clip to translate. Until TCU plays its mode into the CFP apical 25, this is the close spot for the Frogs.
Toughest test: Oct. 11 astatine Kansas State. ESPN's FPI gives the Wildcats a 63.3% accidental to win.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 grounds against the ACC. The play opener astatine UNC volition beryllium a fascinating Labor Day coaching matchup betwixt Bill Belichick and TCU's Sonny Dykes. It's intolerable to archer however UNC's play volition unfold -- a triumph successful Chapel Hill mightiness not magnitude to thing successful the committee gathering country travel Selection Day if the Tar Heels don't enactment unneurotic a respectable season. If they do, though, and TCU besides earns a location triumph against 2024 ACC runner-up SMU, it could assistance the committee find whether the ACC oregon Big 12 mightiness beryllium much deserving of a 2nd team.
What the committee won't like: Road woes. If TCU is going to marque a tally astatine the Big 12 title, it's going to person to bushed the league's champion connected the road. Trips to Arizona State, K-State and BYU volition assistance find the league leader, and TCU volition request a winning grounds against them to enactment successful the mix.
32. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Last year: 8-5
ESPN BET likelihood to triumph nationalist title: +10000
CFP ranking history: N/A
ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 10.3% Win nationalist title: .1%
Agree oregon disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The Red Raiders are a CFP sleeper team, but not arsenic acold from a changeable arsenic the computers indicate. The programme spent much than $10 cardinal to motion 17 caller players, including 7 connected the violative and antiaircraft lines. The defence has been nether operation aft allowing astatine slightest 35 points successful each of its 5 losses past year, but with betterment and the instrumentality of backmost Behren Morton, Texas Tech tin contend for the Big 12 rubric -- and successful crook a spot successful the CFP.
Toughest test: Oct. 18 astatine Arizona State. ESPN's FPI gives the Sun Devils a 61.2% accidental to win. The defending Big 12 champs instrumentality 79% of their full accumulation from past season, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.
What the committee volition like: A 2-0 grounds against Arizona State and Kansas State. They're some apt to beryllium CFP apical 25 teams, and beating them connected the roadworthy would presumption Texas Tech astatine oregon adjacent the apical of the Big 12 standings.
What the committee won't like: A September stumble. If Texas Tech is going to beryllium taken earnestly arsenic a CFP contender, it should spell undefeated successful September. The Sept. 20 travel to Utah volition beryllium the toughest crippled of the month, but the Red Raiders can't spend a Week 3 upset to Oregon State, either. The committee members won't beryllium wowed by location wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State oregon Oregon State -- but they won't hide losses to immoderate of them. While a roadworthy nonaccomplishment to Utah isn't horrible, it would enactment Texas Tech successful a spread earlier the Red Raiders question to ASU and K-State aboriginal successful the season.
