CFP format debate: Would SEC change cost bids? Does the 11+5 make the most sense?

Leave it to assemblage shot to instrumentality the silliest, astir circuitous imaginable way to the easiest, astir logical answer.

Though nothing's authoritative and things could instrumentality further silly turns, a work of caller beverage leaves gives the content that those successful complaint of however the College Football Playoff volition look successful 2026 and beyond are homing successful connected a straightforward, 16-team tournament with 5 guaranteed spots for league champions and 11 at-large bids. After months of debates astir antithetic bracket structures and conferences getting aggregate automatic bids, the speech seems to person returned to a cleanable and casual bracket.

We're going to unreal this means radical are listening to me. When I wrote astir this debate successful March, I recommended skipping enlargement to 14 teams and moving to 16, and I mocked the thought of aggregate autobids. Granted, I besides recommended putting six league champions successful the tract and putting quarterfinal games successful location stadiums, not conscionable first-round games. I won't clasp my enactment connected those ideas (especially the former), but that's inactive a beauteous bully batting average.

After a week of posturing from powerfulness league leaders, let's support the speech going. Here are immoderate thoughts astir what we've learned this week and the debates inactive to come

Moving to 9 league games mightiness outgo the SEC 1 to 2 playoff teams per year

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey talked a batch this week. He went on "The Paul Finebaum Show." He talked astir a scheduling concern with the Big Ten. He increased the fines for tract rushing. He talked astir which playoff games should oregon volition beryllium on location campuses. He talked astir how agelong this formatting process takes. He scoffed astatine being told to service the bully of the game. And helium spent a agelong clip telling everyone how hard the SEC's schedules are:

On Thursday afternoon, the SEC provided members of the media with a six-page packet that included color-coded charts utilizing aggregate metrics to exemplify the league's ascendant docket strength. Sankey said the task for determining the CFP's spot of docket constituent is striking a equilibrium "between quality and machine," referring to the aged BCS machine formula. ... [The packet] included ESPN's Strength of Record, Bill Connelly's SP+, Kenneth Massey's metric, ESPN's Football Power Index and ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric.

Sankey seemed to person 2 superior goals for bringing up spot of schedule. For starters, it seemed similar helium wanted to punctual everyone that Alabama and its 9-3 grounds didn't get into past year's 12-team CFP contempt strength-of-schedule numbers rather a spot stronger than those of higher ranked teams specified arsenic SMU (which had gone 11-2), Boise State (12-1) and Indiana (11-1). He said that determination near him with captious questions astir the committee and its process.

"I bash deliberation there's a request for change," Sankey said of the ranking protocol Thursday astatine the decision of his league's outpouring meetings. "... How bash you marque those decisions? It's hard, and we spot the committee to bash that, and I respect the radical successful there, truthful this isn't a disapproval of the people. This is wanting to recognize the decisions. We person to person amended clarity connected the criteria that pass those decisions."

Now, each the strength-of-schedule advantages successful the satellite didn't halt Alabama from losing to 6-6 Vanderbilt and 6-6 Oklahoma. In the second game, Alabama couldn't person looked little playoff-worthy, losing 24-3 to the Sooners. Maybe the Tide would person gotten successful with a look approach, but they showed nary denotation that they could marque a playoff tally astatine the extremity of the season. Plus, we cognize that the playoff committee took Alabama's spot of docket into relationship due to the fact that it ranked the Tide up of 11-2 Arizona State, 10-2 Miami and 10-2 BYU, among others, contempt however they looked astatine the extremity of the regular season. If Bama had mislaid to lone one of Vandy oregon Oklahoma, the Tide would person astir surely been successful the tract of 12. And they'd person decidedly been successful a tract of 16 regardless, on with 2 different three-loss SEC teams (Ole Miss and South Carolina).

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Greg Sankey discusses the hottest topics from the SEC outpouring meetings

Commissioner Sankey joins The Paul Finebaum Show to item the conversations astir imaginable CFP changes and league schedules going forward.

Also, Sankey didn't notation that the committee placed a one-loss Alabama squad up of an unbeaten Florida State squad successful the CFP rankings conscionable 1 twelvemonth earlier. If we privation to speech astir a formula, let's speech astir a formula. But the SEC has been treated with utmost kindness by the committee connected average.

(For the record, I'm each for a formula-based rankings system. I enactment retired a BCS-like look ranking successful the location agelong of each season, and there's worth successful the approach. People convinced themselves that they hated the BCS formula, but I volition everlastingly importune that the main crushed they hated the look wasn't the look -- it was that the BCS selected lone 2 teams to play for the title. With a batch much teams to take now, a look attack would enactment rather well.)

Beyond the attempts to enactment the referees, however, Sankey besides discussed docket spot arsenic it pertained to the ongoing speech astir the magnitude of the SEC's league schedules. The SEC plays eight-game league schedules, portion the different superior powerfulness conference, the Big Ten, plays nine-game schedules. Despite this difference, the metrics cited by the SEC supra (including, yes, my SP+ rankings) are a beauteous stark reminder that, betwixt the SEC typically having acold less casual matchups than the Big Ten and a coagulated rotation of yearly out-of-conference rivalry games played by SEC teams against ACC programs -- Florida against Florida State, South Carolina against Clemson, etc. -- the mean SEC docket is already a decent magnitude tougher than the mean Big Ten schedule. Using my caller post-spring SP+ projections arsenic a guide, SEC teams task to person 13 of the 15 hardest schedules successful the state contempt eight-game league slates.

Since Sankey serves astatine the discretion of SEC presidents and, to a degree, diversion directors, it made consciousness that Sankey wanted to propulsion backmost connected the mounting unit to determination to 9 games.

"If we're not assured that the decision-making astir who gets successful and wherefore and what are the metrics astir it, it's going to beryllium truly hard for immoderate of my colleagues to get to the 9 games," Texas A&M athletics manager Trev Alberts said this week.

Why marque your schedules harder if it volition outgo your league playoff bids, right?

There are plentifulness of valid reasons for moving to 9 games careless of what it does to playoff status. For starters, it volition apt summation the worth of the SEC's media rights contract, giving the league adjacent much of a warfare chest. It would marque teams' location schedules adjacent much breathtaking and, potentially, expensive. And astir importantly, it would marque the 16-team league consciousness similar an existent conference: With a nine-game schedule, you tin play each squad doubly successful 4 years. With eight-game schedules, those rotations instrumentality a batch longer. (Yes, this is being written by a Mizzou feline who's bitter that LSU fans, with their tailgating prowess, person had a crushed to travel to Columbia lone erstwhile successful Mizzou's 13 SEC seasons.)

Because we're utilizing numbers to beryllium that SEC schedules are already difficult, let's usage numbers to inquire a antithetic question: How overmuch much hard would nine-game SEC schedules be?

To reply this question, I did what I do: I ran a simulation. I created 4 years' worthy of nine-game SEC schedules based astir the super-clean, super-easy thought of imperishable league rivalries: You delegate each squad 3 permanent, yearly opponents, and they play six different opponents home-and-away implicit 2 years, past the different six implicit the adjacent two. Voila, you've visited each stadium successful your league and hosted each league mate astatine slightest erstwhile each 4 years. I've been floored that different immense conferences specified arsenic the Big Ten and Big 12 haven't leaned further into the imperishable rivals conception -- the 16-team Big 12 isn't making Farmageddon (Kansas State-Iowa State) an yearly game, and the 18-team Big Ten didn't acceptable up yearly games betwixt each of its 4 caller Western teams. Regardless, I acceptable up imperishable rivals for each SEC team.

• Alabama: Auburn, LSU, Tennessee

• Arkansas: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

• Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State

• Florida: Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina

• Georgia: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

• Kentucky: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

• LSU: Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

• Mississippi State: Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss

• Missouri: Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina

• Oklahoma: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M

• Ole Miss: LSU, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

• South Carolina: Florida, Georgia, Missouri

• Tennessee: Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

• Texas: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

• Texas A&M: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

• Vanderbilt: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee

These pairings sphere each but 1 of the bid that person been played 90-plus times (Alabama-Mississippi State is the 1 I couldn't compression in, successful portion due to the fact that MSU has 4 specified series). They reconnect erstwhile Big 8, Big 12 and/or SWC rivalries specified arsenic Oklahoma-Missouri and Texas-Arkansas, but they don't spell excessively acold successful that respect -- astatine this point, Missouri has played South Carolina arsenic league mates arsenic galore times arsenic Texas A&M (13) and much than Texas (nine), and the teams from the 2 Columbias person played immoderate unusual and memorable battles already.

There's evidently a beauteous large quality successful prime between, say, Auburn's oregon LSU's yearly opponents versus that of Kentucky oregon Ole Miss. But remember: Six of a team's 9 league games travel from the remainder of the pool. Over a four-year rotation, Auburn's schedules are lone a smidgen harder than Ole Miss' connected average.

A afloat nine-game Auburn docket mightiness look similar this: Alabama, astatine Georgia, Mississippi State, astatine Oklahoma, South Carolina, astatine Ole Miss, Tennessee, astatine Vanderbilt, Texas A&M. Meanwhile, an Ole Miss docket mightiness look similar this (common opponents successful bold): astatine LSU, Vanderbilt, astatine Mississippi State, Arkansas, astatine Kentucky, Auburn, astatine Missouri, Georgia, astatine Oklahoma. One plays Alabama, the different plays LSU. One plays Kentucky, the different plays South Carolina. Over time, the docket strengths volition beryllium beauteous close.

Using existing nonconference games arsenic overmuch arsenic imaginable (with a fewer indispensable tweaks), here's what the 2026 docket mightiness look similar with 9 full league games and a 3+6 approach.

Because you've got immoderate teams present playing 5 league roadworthy games, it volition beryllium hard to debar handing teams immoderate beauteous unsmooth patches -- Alabama and Missouri playing 4 roadworthy games successful 5 weeks precocious successful the season, for example, oregon Kentucky starting with back-to-back league roadworthy games. But it's hard not to announcement however each week is beauteous loaded. Some hypothetical 2026 headliners:

• Week 1: Georgia astatine Ole Miss, Clemson astatine LSU, Miami astatine South Carolina, Texas A&M astatine Tennessee

• Week 2: Ohio State astatine Texas, Oklahoma astatine Michigan, Missouri astatine Kansas, Kentucky astatine LSU

• Week 3: Florida State astatine Alabama, Oklahoma astatine Texas A&M, South Carolina astatine Auburn, Florida astatine Kentucky

• Week 4: Tennessee astatine Georgia, Alabama astatine Florida, Arkansas vs. Texas A&M, LSU astatine South Carolina, Illinois astatine Missouri*

• Week 5: Georgia astatine Alabama, Auburn astatine Oklahoma, Florida astatine Texas, Texas A&M astatine South Carolina, Ole Miss astatine Missouri

• Week 6: Oklahoma vs. Texas, Tennessee astatine Auburn, Missouri astatine Georgia, South Carolina astatine Florida

• Week 7: Tennessee astatine Alabama, LSU astatine Texas, Auburn astatine Ole Miss, Oklahoma astatine Arkansas, Georgia astatine South Carolina

• Week 8: Arkansas astatine Ole Miss, Missouri astatine South Carolina, Oklahoma astatine Kentucky

• Week 9: Alabama astatine Texas, Georgia vs. Florida, Ole Miss astatine LSU, Missouri astatine Texas A&M

• Week 10: Alabama astatine LSU, Texas A&M astatine Auburn, Ole Miss astatine Oklahoma, Texas astatine Missouri

• Week 11: Auburn astatine Georgia, Texas astatine Arkansas, Florida astatine Texas A&M, Missouri astatine Tennessee

• Week 12: LSU astatine Florida, Georgia astatine Texas A&M, Missouri astatine Oklahoma, Alabama astatine South Carolina

• Week 13: The emblematic loaded rivalry week

(* Missouri is someway scheduled to play astatine Illinois and Kansas successful 2026, but due to the fact that the Tigers drew a slate with 5 league roadworthy games, I flipped the Illinois crippled retired of axenic convenience.)

Obviously, the real-life 2026 SEC slate volition besides diagnostic a batch of these big-time games, but speech from a comparatively paltry Week 8, each week has immoderate huge, TV-friendly marque matchups. That's an utterly loaded schedule.

It's besides a docket that will, arsenic diversion directors volition surely notice, manus rather a fewer losses to bully teams.

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Paul Finebaum supports CFP moving to consecutive seeding successful 2025

Paul Finebaum is connected committee with the College Football Playoff shifting to a consecutive seeding exemplary starting this season.

Though I shared hypothetical 2026 schedules above, I wanted to usage SP+ projections to look astatine a afloat four-year rotation and comparison what it would nutrient from a wins-and-losses standpoint to what the existent eight-game slate produces.

For the league's elite teams, moving to 9 games won't marque overmuch of a difference. For instance, with its existent schedule, SP+ projects Georgia to triumph 9.8 games connected average, with an 84.9% accidental of going astatine slightest 9-3 (the hypothetical cutoff enactment for SEC teams hoping to get into the field). But with an abridged, three-game nonconference docket -- for the astir part, I shrank nonconference schedules by getting escaped of teams' 2nd games against Group of 5 teams and leaving 1 crippled against a power-conference opponent, 1 against a G5 squad and 1 against an FCS squad -- Georgia averages 9.7 wins implicit 4 simulated seasons, with a 79.6% accidental of reaching 9-3 oregon amended connected average. There's a spot little borderline for error, but well-projected teams similar Georgia volition beryllium successful bully shape, regardless.

For the league's airy heavyweights, however, things get trickier. Florida has a 43.7% accidental of finishing 9-3 oregon amended successful 2025, but successful a nine-SEC-games universe, that drops to 19.6%. Four others spot their likelihood driblet by astatine slightest 10%, and existent agelong shots similar Vanderbilt (10.2% accidental of going 9-3 successful 2025) spot their likelihood astir wholly vanish (0.1%).

Overall, an mean of 6.2 SEC teams are projected to spell 9-3 oregon amended successful 2025. In a nine-game universe, that mean shrinks to 4.7. With a 16-team field, you could accidental that the league would spell from expecting astir six teams successful the tract to having 4 oregon 5 teams safely successful and campaigning for immoderate 8-4 teams. Meanwhile, the league would besides spell from an mean of 13.4 bowl-eligible teams to conscionable 11.4.

That's not an insignificant change. There would beryllium plentifulness of cases wherever an 8-4 squad with an off-the-charts spot of docket would besides beryllium successful bully shape, but the professed hazard is real. Of course, that's what the money's for. Media rights gross would astir apt emergence with expanded league schedules; plus, the SEC and Big Ten are already guaranteed a immense information of future CFP wealth anyway, truthful if they suffer a playoff squad present oregon there, it's lone going to wounded truthful much. Still, it's casual to spot wherefore SEC ADs and coaches, whose jobs (and, potentially, bonuses) mightiness beryllium dictated by CFP bids, mightiness balk astatine making pugnacious schedules tougher.

The SEC and Big Ten title games are being rendered moot

Among the main reasons the Big Ten, successful particular, was funny successful a enactment process that featured aggregate autobids (a rumored 4 each for the Big Ten and SEC) were that it would let the 2 conferences -- plus, perhaps, the ACC and Big 12, which were apt to person 2 guaranteed bids each successful specified a operation -- to redefine Championship Weekend.

The Big Ten and SEC title games provided little-to-no affirmative interaction for their winners past year: Oregon bushed Penn State successful the Big Ten title to gain a first-round playoff bye but drew a smoking blistery Ohio State successful the quarterfinals and lost, and Georgia bushed Texas successful the SEC title but mislaid backmost Carson Beck to wounded and handed Gunner Stockton his archetypal vocation commencement successful a quarterfinal nonaccomplishment to Notre Dame. (Plus, determination were astir nary antagonistic repercussions for losing these games. Penn State and Texas each dropped lone 1 spot successful the rankings, and erstwhile SMU mislaid to lower-ranked Clemson successful the ACC title game, the Mustangs fell lone from eighth to 10th and inactive got in.) With autobids, you could make aggregate play-in games and nutrient a caller spectacle portion avoiding handing other wounded hazard to conscionable your apical 2 teams.

There's logic successful that, adjacent if I didn't deliberation it outweighed the negatives of aggregate autobids -- that they would marque the full playoff look similar a Big Ten-SEC invitational, render ample portions of the regular play moot (nonconference games would person astir nary interaction connected playoff bids, and if a No. 6 effect with an 8-4 grounds tin bargain an 11-1 No. 3 seed's playoff bid, past what's the constituent of immoderate of this?) and definite looked similar they were chiefly designed to rake successful other tv dough.

Recent brainstorming sessions reportedly produced ideas specified arsenic giving SEC and Big Ten champions a double-bye successful a 16-team bracket, with a archetypal circular consisting of play-in games for the lowest-ranked of the 16 teams, but that ruins the constituent of a clean, casual 16-team playoff. But with a plain 16-teamer, the interaction of the SEC and Big Ten championships volition beryllium the quality betwixt getting a No. 1 and No. 4 seed. That doesn't antagonistic the wounded risk.

Conference championships are invaluable capable that I uncertainty conferences volition willingly get escaped of them. But they consciousness similar a hindrance to the existent process, and I wonderment however league leaders volition quadrate that circle. I person 1 idea, though, and it comes from the 2020 COVID season.

When the Big Ten initially announced it was returning to enactment that fall, it created an abbreviated eight-game slate for each team, followed by a title play that was intended to feature other cross-division games for each squad crossed the East and West divisions -- No. 2 East vs. No. 2 West, No. 3 vs. No. 3, etc. Granted, things got messy due to the fact that of affirmative COVID tests and resulting cancellations, but the Big Ten inactive featured 4 games connected title weekend.

Maybe there's thing to the thought of playing a afloat slate of title week games, adjacent if they aren't playoff play-in games? Maybe that becomes portion of the regular-season slate, successful which, aft everyone has played 8 league games, the standings find who you play for the ninth?

Using past year's eight-game SEC standings (and adjusting to debar rematches wherever possible), we could person sent Texas and Georgia to play for the SEC rubric successful Atlanta portion besides having 6-2 Tennessee (the No. 3 squad successful the standings) big 5-3 LSU, 5-3 Alabama big 5-3 Texas A&M, and truthful on. That would support everyone from playing an other game, and it would make a batch of de facto playoff play-in games adjacent if they weren't officially called that.

The brainstorming connected this tin proceed for a portion longer, but there's nary doubting that, though I deliberation a cleanable 16-teamer is the astir favorable decision for this agelong debate, determination are inactive downsides and wrinkles to robust out.