China consumer price growth weakens in June while producer inflation rises on export orders

China's consumer prices grew slower than expected in June, while wholesale inflation accelerated, as elevated energy costs continued to sap domestic demand.

Consumer prices rose 1% in June from a year ago, missing economists' estimates of 1.1% growth in a Reuters poll, and slowing from 1.2% in May, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

The producer price index jumped 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with economists' forecast and outpacing May's 3.9%.

Factory-gate prices had returned to growth in March with input costs rising on the back of the Middle East conflict, helping end one of China's longest deflationary streaks in decades. Besides higher commodity costs owed to war-led supply disruptions, wholesale prices were also lifted by a growing demand for artificial intelligence computing power, pushing up prices for tech equipment and semiconductors.

June's official PMI, however, showed input cost inflation easing to a six-month low of 54.2 from 60.5 in May, while the output price sub-index fell to 48.2 from 51.9 — the first contraction this year, signaling a pullback in upstream and lower-stream industrial prices that had soared higher during the war.

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday forecast China's economy to outperform the world this year, raising their growth forecast for China to 4.6%, up from its previous projection of 4.4%, while trimming global growth forecast to a sluggish 3%. China has set a modest growth target of 4.5%-5% this year.

They attributed that optimistic view to China's robust high-tech manufacturing and export performance, as well as frontloaded public infrastructure investments.

Many investors in China increasingly view the two-speed growth — marked by robust exports versus weak consumption and housing market — as a defining long-term feature of the Chinese economy, said Neo Wang, China strategist at Evercore ISI.

Consumer sentiment remains subdued as households continue to grapple with the negative wealth effect stemming from the prolonged housing downturn, Wang added.

The export and manufacturing-led economic resilience is expected to reinforce Beijing's reluctance to roll out stimulus to revive tepid consumer demand. "Policymakers are likely to refrain from major new stimulus unless the slowdown persists beyond the conflict," said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo.

Wildau points to a top policy meeting by the 24-member Politburo of the Communist Party in late July as "the next opportunity to escalate policy stimulus."