Clay's Playbook: A game plan for your draft day

A caller fantasy football play is upon america and -- if you tuned retired aft February's Super Bowl -- you person a batch of catching up to do.

The 2025 NFL offseason had a flurry of enactment that volition bring monolithic changes to this season's phantasy landscape. There's a caller question of rookie moving backs (led by imaginable first-round phantasy prime Ashton Jeanty), Davante Adams teamed up with Matthew Stafford successful Los Angeles, Derek Carr abruptly retired and respective notable quarterbacks recovered caller homes, including Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

This archetypal installment of The Playbook takes a thorough, position-by-position look astatine that scenery and offers proposal and accusation that tin assistance you marque dependable decisions connected draught day. The absorption volition beryllium connected average-sized, redraft leagues, but I didn't hide the much nuanced leagues, including dynasty, keeper, superflex and champion ball, which soon volition beryllium covered successful Part 2 of The Playbook.

The Playbook is simply a strategy portion for beginners and precocious players that shows you however I use each that I've learned during my galore years arsenic a phantasy subordinate and an offseason of research. I primitively published a mentation of this bid successful 2021, but it is simply a surviving portion that I update substantially each year.

State of the Positions

Quarterback: The Big 4

Last season, Lamar Jackson (25.3), Josh Allen (22.3), Jalen Hurts (21.0) and Jayden Daniels (20.9) finished among the apical 6 quarterbacks successful phantasy points per game. Those 4 are the clear-cut apical 4 phantasy QBs successful 2025, and my extremity connected draught time is to get immoderate 1 of the four. The crushed these 4 marque the chopped and Joe Burrow (21.9) and Baker Mayfield (21.5) bash not is simple: rushing ability. Burrow and Mayfield combined for 579 yards and 5 TDs connected the crushed past season; the "Big 4" averaged 741.8 yards and 9 TDs (none of the 4 had less than 531 yards oregon six TDs).

The backmost presumption has evolved to wherever large passing numbers aren't capable -- these guys request to beryllium thing abbreviated of elite successful that class to support up with the existent dual-threat quarterbacks. Burrow and Mayfield tally a bit, but some needed 40-plus passing TDs to bent with the Big 4 past season. Is that repeatable? Considering lone 7 QBs successful league past person reached 40 passing TDs much than erstwhile (none has done it much than 3 times), it seems unlikely.

Burrow and Mayfield inactive person precise bully outlooks, truthful though I don't presumption them arsenic elite, they're inactive solid, midrange QB1 options. And they're not alone. Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy are besides successful that conversation, on with further fringe QB1s specified arsenic Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and dual-threat Justin Fields ... oh, and breakout candidates specified arsenic Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Cameron Ward and Michael Penix Jr.

Those players aren't rather the aforesaid difference-makers arsenic the Big 4, which is why, dissimilar successful immoderate years, I'm consenting to walk up connected a backmost successful 2025. "Spending up" successful this lawsuit volition mostly outgo a third- oregon fourth-round pick, which isn't arsenic costly arsenic years agone erstwhile superstar QBs similar Allen would beryllium a first-round prime successful each phantasy leagues. The manufacture has wised up successful that department, and casual drafters person caught connected arsenic well, which is wherefore Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts are palatable astatine their existent draught cost.

Takeaway: There is simply a notable drop-off aft the Big 4, truthful if you miss retired connected 1 of them, don't beryllium acrophobic to hold rather a portion earlier addressing your backmost slot.

Running back: Spend up oregon spell young?

Wide receiver has go the precedence presumption successful phantasy football, but hitting connected interaction moving backs remains highly important. As mentioned earlier, the heavy 2025 rookie RB people is apt to marque a sizable interaction this season, and we besides mightiness spot the extremity for respective aging backs.

The mean property of a top-15 phantasy moving backmost (by scoring) the past 5 years is 25.1, arsenic precocious arsenic 25.9 successful 2022 and arsenic debased arsenic 24.1 successful 2020. Only 7 of the 75 RBs (9.3%) were 29 oregon older to statesman the season; nine, if we see 28-year-olds. Although much than fractional of the exceptions came successful 2024 (Derrick Henry fourth, Alvin Kamara ninth, James Conner 11th, Aaron Jones Sr. 15th), it's imaginable (maybe likely) we spot a instrumentality to world successful 2025.

Why are these property stats notable? Christian McCaffrey (29), Joe Mixon (29), Conner (30), Henry (31), Kamara (30) and Jones (30) are each being selected successful the aboriginal rounds, and each is entering his age-29 play oregon older. And that doesn't see Saquon Barkley, who is 28 years aged and coming disconnected a play successful which helium racked up 482 touches crossed 20 games, including the playoffs.

Can we inactive number connected these veterans who person proven elite/reliable implicit the past half-decade and stay positioned for large workloads, oregon should we expect a regression successful production, and thin into youth? Last season, targeting young backs was mostly successful, arsenic Bijan Robinson (now 23 years old), Kyren Williams (25), Jahmyr Gibbs (23), James Cook (25) and De'Von Achane (23) worked retired great. This year, we tin adhd Bucky Irving (23), Kenneth Walker III (24), Chase Brown (25) and Breece Hall (24) to the database of 25-and-younger backs who could leap into, (or backmost into) the play RB1 premix ... and that doesn't see a loaded rookie people led by Jeanty (21), Omarion Hampton (22), Quinshon Judkins (21), RJ Harvey (24), TreVeyon Henderson (22), Kaleb Johnson (22) and Cam Skattebo (23), each who could play sizable roles immediately.

Many of these young backs are viable draught targets if you subscribe to immoderate mentation of the "Zero RB" strategy, a drafting doctrine that involves not selecting a moving backmost early, alternatively loading up connected wide receivers (and possibly an elite choky extremity oregon quarterback) successful the archetypal respective rounds. Then, erstwhile apical backs inevitably get injured, your opponents' rosters get worse and you tin usage your stashed backs and waivers to capable your RB slots, giving you an borderline connected the field.

This is simply a recommended strategy if you're acceptable connected avoiding the older/overworked backs and alternatively focused connected eyeing young backs successful the mediate rounds. But if you walk nary oregon 1 of your archetypal 5 oregon truthful picks connected a moving back, you apt volition participate the play with an uneasy feeling astatine RB2. With the well-documented precocious wounded complaint astatine the position, it's much than apt you'll capable that spot with a middle-round prime successful the abbreviated word and a seat stash oregon waiver adhd aboriginal successful the year.

Takeaway: Take an elite backmost aboriginal if you can, but don't propulsion it if the worth isn't there. Feel escaped to onslaught the different positions aboriginal and propulsion darts connected values and rising-star RBs successful the mediate rounds.

Wide receiver: A fewer superstars and a cardinal WR3s

Wide receiver has evolved into a spot of a top-heavy position, with a abbreviated database that includes Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers and Amon-Ra St. Brown starring the way. Each receiver is assured a hefty people stock and is apt to outgo you a first-round prime successful 12-team leagues.

Things get trickier from there. Teams are utilizing three-plus wide receiver sets astatine a hefty complaint (73% of walk plays successful 2024) due to the fact that the presumption is truthful beardown crossed the league, and they're spreading the shot astir to appease the talent. There are different respectable options for your WR1 slot, including Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown and Drake London, but it gets a spot risky aft that due to the fact that there's not a monolithic drop-off astatine the presumption from that point.

Tyreek Hill seems similar a bully post-hype target, but volition helium rebound astatine property 31? How volition Davante Adams fare astatine 32 years aged successful Los Angeles? Rashee Rice is not lone facing league discipline but also, is determination capable country for him and Xavier Worthy to thrive successful Kansas City? How volition Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp jell with Sam Darnold successful Seattle? Will Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze marque a Year 2 leap? Will Mike Evans (32) and Chris Godwin (injury concern) person different large season? Can Garrett Wilson scope his ceiling with Justin Fields nether center? How volition DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers fare together? Can Jerry Jeudy flooded the Browns' QB questions?

There are a batch of pugnacious questions successful that paragraph, and that's lone a partial database of players to see successful the early-to-middle rounds. The bully quality is that each of these receivers are expected to supply starting-caliber production, but they're each precise adjacent successful value, which means you tin show your draft's progression and instrumentality vantage of immoderate precise ample tiers of akin players. There's truthful overmuch uncertainty and extent that you'll beryllium spending late-round picks connected players who could easy beryllium successful the WR3 premix arsenic aboriginal arsenic Week 1. For example, veterans Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman Jr. and imaginable breakout players Matthew Golden, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman tin beryllium had aft Round 7 successful galore 12-team leagues.

With wide receiver truthful deep, however bash we benignant done the congestion and decently place which players to target?

Over the past 5 seasons, 43 of the apical 50 wide receivers (86%) successful phantasy points per crippled were selected successful the archetypal 3 rounds of the NFL draught (23 were first-rounders and lone 2 were undrafted). During that span, 121 of the 150 top-30 WR phantasy campaigns (80%) person travel from a subordinate selected during the archetypal 3 rounds. Only 1 (Jauan Jennings successful 2024) came from a subordinate selected successful Round 6 oregon 7.

Only 32 of the 324 wide receivers (10%) picked successful the NFL draught from 2015 to 2024 finished arsenic a top-35 phantasy WR arsenic a rookie (six finished successful the apical 12). Of those 32, lone 3 (Nacua, Hill, St. Brown) were picked aft the 3rd round. Exceptions happen, but past tells america to debar reaching connected players with debased deed rates and absorption connected a player's past production.

We should besides absorption connected second-year receivers who were bully arsenic rookies. Since 2000, 30 of 42 WRs (71%) who finished successful the apical 30 successful phantasy points arsenic a rookie repeated arsenic a top-30 WR successful Year 2. With injuries truthful salient successful the NFL, that is simply a shockingly precocious deed complaint and worthy our attention. Last season, Harrison, Thomas, Nabers and Ladd McConkey were top-30 finishers, with Worthy (33rd) conscionable missing the cut. History says astir of them volition repetition their occurrence successful 2025.

On the different hand, I did immoderate probe to find if it was worthwhile to people post-hype, second-year receivers who struggled arsenic rookies. It depends connected conscionable however overmuch they struggled. The magic fig seems to beryllium 90, arsenic in, if a wide receiver did not decorativeness successful the apical 90 astatine the presumption successful phantasy points arsenic a rookie, you tin each but propulsion successful the towel.

Fifty of the 133 WRs (38%) taken successful Rounds 1-3 of the NFL draught from 2014 to 2023 finished worse than 90th successful wide receiver phantasy points arsenic rookies. Only 5 of the 50 had a azygous top-30 season: Nelson Agholor, Jameson Williams, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams and DJ Chark Jr. None managed a top-10 campaign, and lone Mike Williams and Chark cracked the apical 20. Mike Williams is the biggest occurrence communicative from the radical frankincense far, and it took him until his 5th play to ace the apical 30. As agelong arsenic you're somewhat competent arsenic a rookie, you person a changeable astatine success. If you're each but a nonfactor, you're apt a mislaid cause.

We saw an illustration of this past season, arsenic this aforesaid file warned you to debar 2023 Round 1-3 WRs who struggled arsenic rookies. Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Tre Tucker and Marvin Mims Jr. were each extracurricular the apical 80 arsenic rookies and, though Tillman flashed for a minute, the champion decorativeness by the radical successful 2024 was Mims' 57th.

So, who does this survey suggest we debar successful 2025? Adonai Mitchell (112th), Luke McCaffrey (127th), Ja'Lynn Polk (129th), Jermaine Burton (154th), Malachi Corley (190th) and Roman Wilson (216th) comprise the database of 2024 receivers taken successful Rounds 1-3 who finished their rookie play extracurricular the apical 90 receivers successful phantasy points. History tells america that, though possibly 1 of these guys volition marque a leap, it's precise unlikely, truthful we shouldn't put overmuch successful them. Instead, we tin absorption connected high-potential rookies oregon post-hype, second-year players who astatine slightest showed immoderate flashes successful Year 1. Players who acceptable that measure see Thomas, Nabers, McConkey, Harrison, Worthy, Odunze, Coleman, Pearsall, Jalen McMillan and Xavier Legette.

Takeaway: Ideally, you're grabbing a prima receiver early, but the presumption is heavy with seasoned endowment and a beardown corps of talented young stars, truthful there's nary request to unit things. When it comes to early-career sleepers and breakouts, past shows that draught presumption matters. NFL scouts bash a beauteous bully occupation of identifying the high-ceiling guys, so, for the astir part, spot their work.

Tight end: A bully twelvemonth to walk up

Each year, it seems similar choky extremity volition yet beryllium a heavy presumption afloat of viable starters ... and each year, the presumption lets america down. This season, I urge attacking the presumption comparatively early, possibly adjacent spending an aboriginal prime connected Brock Bowers oregon Trey McBride.

The apical 2 scoring choky ends from 2024 were not lone bully astatine their position, but they were bully erstwhile stacked up against apical wide receivers (if we harvester the 2 positions, Bowers ranked ninth successful points and McBride 12th). That's much than capable justification to see the choky ends successful the 2nd oregon 3rd circular of your draft.

The lone happening stopping maine from pouncing connected either is George Kittle's availability a circular oregon 2 aboriginal (Kittle's 15.8 PPG past play was amended than Bowers' 15.5 and McBride's 15.6). And, if I miss connected immoderate of those three, Sam LaPorta successful the sixth-round scope is besides palatable, and possibly T.J. Hockenson a circular later.

After that? Major questions. David Njoku has QB concerns, Travis Kelce, 35, has much people competition, Mark Andrews saw a immense people dip past season, Evan Engram is with Denver, Jonnu Smith was traded to Pittsburgh, which already has Pat Freiermuth, Dallas Goedert (who besides has durability concerns) has been the taxable of commercialized rumors, and Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts haven't lived up to their first-round expectations.

I urge avoiding that mess. If not, there's not overmuch consciousness successful prioritizing the presumption aboriginal successful your draft, particularly due to the fact that I didn't notation other, likewise valued choky ends specified arsenic Tucker Kraft and rookies Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren.

Takeaway: This is the twelvemonth to prioritize landing an elite choky end. If you miss retired connected the apical tier oregon two, it's a batch of the same, truthful there's not overmuch consciousness successful drafting 1 until the middle-to-late rounds.

D/ST: Same arsenic usual

If you're not streamin', you're not strivin'. Or thing similar that. You cognize however you somewhat set expectations for your violative starters based connected the antiaircraft matchup? That logic should beryllium applied to your D/ST decisions. It's much astir the discourtesy than the defense. Stream defenses successful positive matchups and profit.

Kicker: Ditto

Daniel Carlson finished arsenic fantasy's apical kicker successful 2021 and 2022. Did that person you to scope for him a spot successful your 2023 draft? If so, you had with fantasy's No. 24 kicker. Before Carlson's streak, the past No. 1-scoring kicker to decorativeness successful the top 10 the pursuing play was Matt Bryant successful 2017. Brandon Aubrey (a top-2 scorer each of the past 2 seasons) can't beryllium trusted, nor tin reigning No. 1 phantasy kicker Chris Boswell, whose past 5 play finishes are first, 17th, 31st, 4th and 25th. Don't draught a kicker earlier the last round. In fact, don't prime 1 unless forced to (you tin ever adhd 1 conscionable anterior to Week 1 kickoff).

Draft strategy

You should person a beauteous bully consciousness for the 2025 phantasy shot subordinate pool, truthful let's bash a small housecleaning earlier we caput disconnected to the draught room.

Early rounds

Outside of "give maine a bully sleeper," the question I'm asked astir often is, "What should I bash with my archetypal pick?"

I already discussed immoderate sleeper strategies, truthful let's code the latter. In the past, moving backs dominated the archetypal round, with a fewer wide receivers and, astatine times, adjacent quarterbacks a portion of the conversation. However, the operation of the precocious wounded complaint astatine moving back, the extent astatine backmost and the accordant accumulation of a fewer elite receivers has closed the spread implicit the past decade. Wide receiver is mostly the preferred and safest presumption successful Round 1, with immoderate subscribing to a mentation of the aforementioned "Zero RB" strategy.

So, bash you travel the inclination and debar RBs aboriginal oregon summation an borderline by stacking a brace of RB1s with your archetypal 2 picks? It somewhat depends connected wherever you're drafting successful the archetypal round, but the champion mode to maximize your lineup volition necessitate flexibility and speedy thinking.

If you person the archetypal prime this year, the close reply is to prime Chase. Will helium repetition his humanities 2024 campaign? Probably not, but helium inactive would beryllium good worthy that terms tag. After Chase, I'm going with Robinson, but it's decidedly dealer's prime astatine this point. WRs Jefferson, Lamb, Nacua, Nabers and St. Brown are fantabulous targets, arsenic are RBs Barkley, Gibbs, McCaffrey and possibly Achane and Jeanty. This isn't ever the case, but there's nary incorrect reply to "RB oregon WR successful the archetypal round?" this year. Elite, high-volume backs are truthful hard to find, but wide receiver arguably dries up adjacent quicker this year, which makes the apical options much appealing.

As for choosing a draught slot (if you get the choice), purpose for the earliest pick, and that applies this year, too. I tin draught an elite subordinate with my archetypal prime and inactive onshore different brace of stars astatine the Round 2/3 turn. That database of players includes Kyren Williams, Cook, Bowers, McBride, London, Tee Higgins and McConkey. I'll instrumentality that each time, particularly due to the fact that the aboriginal stages of the 3rd circular aren't rather arsenic appealing.

Middle rounds

That covers the archetypal fewer rounds, but what astir the rest? During my draft, I'm keeping way of whom I've picked and which positions request filling, but I'm ne'er passing connected an evident value, adjacent if it's not a presumption of need. Rarely bash I implicit a draught successful which determination wasn't a subordinate who plummeted good beyond his ADP, and I anxiously awaited my accidental to pounce. (How brutal is it erstwhile that subordinate is chosen close earlier you're connected the clock?!?)

Passing connected worth is an evident look for catastrophe implicit the agelong term, but galore bash it. There are ever players -- deliberation highest Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, Eric Decker, Derrick Mason, Pierre Garcon, Golden Tate, Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman -- who consistently fell excessively acold successful drafts and often proved coagulated values. These players aren't caller oregon young oregon exciting, but I've ever feasted connected them. You don't request a location tally with each prime to triumph the title. You request to scope the playoffs archetypal and, from there, you request a competent lineup and immoderate luck. To execute both, having a mates of reliable starters (such arsenic Courtland Sutton and Jakobi Meyers) is key.

Here's thing other to deliberation about: We don't afloat admit arsenic an manufacture however antithetic our lineups look successful the playoffs than entering Week 1. I tin callback a championship-winning squad successful an FSGA manufacture league that included ZERO moving backs that I drafted. And that's wherefore focusing excessively overmuch connected filling retired a cleanable lineup connected draught time isn't arsenic important arsenic collecting the champion endowment possible. Where is the line? You'll cognize it erstwhile you spot it (aka erstwhile guys specified arsenic Sutton and Meyers are staring you successful the face).

Call maine a value-based drafter. Call maine conservative. I don't care. I'm blessed arsenic agelong arsenic you can't telephone maine idiosyncratic who is giving an borderline to my opponents.

The bottommost line: When it comes to your phantasy shot draft, cognize your league settings, person a bully acceptable of rankings/tiers, beryllium alert of ADP and don't walk connected evident values. In 2025, I'm not sweating moving backmost vs. wide receiver successful the archetypal mates of rounds. I'm choosing the champion disposable brace of players with those archetypal 2 picks (two RBs oregon 2 WRs is good if the committee calls for it) and past the doorway opens astatine each 4 positions, whether it's loading up astatine RB and WR, grabbing a "Big 4" backmost oregon pouncing connected an elite choky extremity specified arsenic Bowers, McBride oregon possibly Kittle. Once your starting lineup looks good, absorption connected values and imaginable league-winning players, utilizing the supra strategies to place the champion targets. When each is said and done (and assuming you proceed to negociate your squad passim the season), you'll beryllium well-positioned for a tally astatine your league championship.

Ready to hone your draught skills? Jump into our Mock Draft Lobby and a league-specific "practice draft" oregon a mock draught with different users, each for free.