CNBC Daily Open: Don’t confuse slow hiring with layoffs

Hiring's shrinking
Private sector companies hired 99,000 workers in August, according to payroll company ADP. That's the lowest figure in more than three-and-a-half years, and sharply lower than the expected 140,000. Payroll reports by ADP often diverge from official Labor Department job numbers, but they differed by just 8,000 in July.

Markets continue falling
U.S. markets were mixed on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite was the only major index to eke out an increase, though it still shed some gains it had made earlier in the day. Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.1% as data showed household spending for July rose just 0.1%, compared with an expected 1.2% rise.

More chip export controls
The U.S. is implementing new export controls on critical technologies, such as quantum computing and semiconductors. Those restrictions cover worldwide exports, and China is not named in the documents, but they come as China makes inroads into advanced chipmaking.

Brain drain in New Zealand
New Zealand was once a sparkling jewel in the Pacific during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as its economy weakened and jobs dried up, "economic refugees" have begun leaving the country. "We are in austerity," said Shamubeel Eaqub, principal economist at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

[PRO] Opportunities and obstacles in EM  
With U.S. markets hypersensitive to economic releases lately, investors are starting to consider the opportunities in emerging markets, such as China, India – and even Greece. However, even as they present an alternative, they are not without their troubles.

Even though it can be a struggle to behave demurely and respectfully at our jobs, jobs give us money. And everyone likes money. So, everyone, more or less, likes jobs.

Thus, when people want jobs and there aren't enough for them, it's a really bad thing. If there are no jobs, people have no money. No money means there's less spending in the economy, which lowers companies' bottom lines, which means they'll reduce hiring, which means even fewer jobs to go around.

On Thursday, ADP reported private payrolls in the U.S. grew by just 99,000 in August – the first time it's dipped below six figures since January 2021, and 41,000 fewer than expected. That's not a great sign for the U.S. economy. Worse, it comes after July's dismal jobs report, which sparked the panic-driven sell-off last month.

While not as morbid as that Monday in August, markets mostly fell on the ADP report. The S&P 500 retreated 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.54%. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed to rise 0.25%, buoyed by Tesla popping 4.9%.

Losses were perhaps moderated because labor market data was mixed. There were only 227,000 jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 31, lower than both the Dow Jones consensus forecast and the previous week's number of claims.

That might seem contradictory with the negative news about the jobs market. But it, in fact, corroborates ADP data, which indicated only a few sectors shed jobs even though hiring slowed down.

So, we might want to refine our earlier statements. Having a job is nice. Looking for a job but being unable to find one is bad. Losing a job you once had is perhaps the worst of all.

The U.S. Labor Department will release its August jobs report later today, U.S. time. Be  mindful when digesting it: it'll indicate whether we're in the slowing hiring state, or the increased firing one.

– CNBC's Jeff Cox, Jesse Pound and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.