CNBC Daily Open: Iran, Oman in talks on Hormuz; SpaceX is loyal to Nvidia on AI

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.

The Dow just notched its fifth straight record close, as Wall Street bets that the five-month war in the Middle East is finally winding down.

Just note the fine print: an agreement that hands Tehran more control of the strait isn't the same as the one Washington set out to get.

The AI trade, meanwhile, is discovering that allegiance may matter more than earnings — AMD posted robust results and still watched its shares slide, after Elon Musk said SpaceX would build its AI infrastructure exclusively on Nvidia chips.

Stock futures inched higher after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record high and its fifth positive day in a row, while the S&P 500 pulled back, snapping a four-day win streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped less than 1%.

Behind the blue-chip run: signs that Iran and Oman are nearing the final stages of drafting an agreement on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — one that would give Tehran more control over vessels passing through the vital oil route, according to Reuters.

President Donald Trump said a U.S. deal to reopen the strait "could happen" as soon as Wednesday or Thursday, extending a deadline Treasury Scott Bessent had floated just a day earlier, when he said an agreement could land Tuesday or Wednesday.

Both Brent and WTI crude futures slipped as the administration's optimism spread through markets.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she's "prepared to act" on a rate hike: "Inflation is too high, and I consider the risks to the inflation side of the dual mandate higher than the risks to the employment side at this point," she said in Anchorage, Alaska.

With five years of above-target inflation, she said, the risk grows that higher inflation becomes entrenched. Traders are now pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike in the central bank's September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Musk's pledge that SpaceX would only use Nvidia processors for its AI infrastructure sent the chipmaker's shares up more than 3%. "We're exclusive to Nvidia," he said.

AMD was on the other side of that trade. CEO Lisa Su brushed off the snub — "I have tremendous respect for Elon... we look forward to continuing to partner over the longer term" — but AMD's stock closed 7% lower despite strong second-quarter earnings and guidance for data center growth "well over 100%."

Meta is rolling out Muse Code, its first coding agent, as it tries to challenge Anthropic and OpenAI — differentiating by price rather than capabilities, per AI chief Alexandr Wang.

And at Google, a changing of the guard: chief scientist Jeff Dean is leaving after 27 years to start his own company, while DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis moves to a chairman role. Alphabet shares fell about 4% — the shake-up landing just as Google turned cash flow negative for the first time on record, with full-year capex forecast at up to $205 billion.

Progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary — one of the most closely watched races of the midterms, with the two trading blows over AI data centers and U.S. foreign policy. He faces Mike Rogers in November for a seat both parties consider must-win.

— Anniek Bao

Michael Burry bets against rally: 'We are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall'

Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame is sticking with his bearish wagers even as the S&P 500 surges to a record high, warning that the rally could still end in a sharp sell-off reminiscent of the 1987 stock-market crash.

"I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall, but the S&P 500 making new highs likely will bring new money into the market," Burry said in a Tuesday Substack post.

Burry has been among Wall Street's most outspoken skeptics of the artificial intelligence boom, arguing that demand for AI infrastructure is being fueled by financing arrangements that may prove unsustainable. He said the market's advance is creating a self-reinforcing cycle, with declining volatility encouraging systematic investors to increase exposure.

— Yun Li