Debating NFL offseason overreactions: Baker Mayfield's contract, the Browns' QB situation

Oh, we're getting determination people. Pads volition soon beryllium popping. And the 53-man roster projections volition soon beryllium projecting. Some teams person already had players study for training camp, and each squad volition person by this clip adjacent week. Before long, we'll commencement learning which of our NFL offseason takes were overreactions and which ones weren't.

But wherefore wait?

It's clip for the grooming campy variation of the overreactions column, wherever I instrumentality a fewer conclusions you mightiness person drawn from teams' offseason enactment and archer you whether they're overreactions.

More overreactions from Graziano:
Free agency | Draft | Schedule release

Jump to a section:
NFC North teams | KC's rubric streak
CLE's QB room | WSH's part hopes
Baker Mayfield's breakout

All 4 NFC North teams volition marque the playoffs

Three of them made it past season. The Lions and Vikings combined to triumph 29 games, dueling until the last crippled of the regular play to determine not lone the part title, but the No. 1 effect successful the NFC playoffs. The Packers went 11-6 with the youngest roster successful the league. Four of those losses were to the Lions and Vikings, and different was to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.

The Bears? Well, they went 5-12, but things should beryllium antithetic this play with erstwhile Lions violative coordinator Ben Johnson arsenic their caput coach. They besides made a clump of violative unit changes that should assistance kick-start the improvement of 2024 No. 1 prime Caleb Williams.

Johnson didn't leap from the division's champion squad to its worst squad reasoning astir a semipermanent rebuild. The Bears privation to beryllium a origin close away. And with a rebuilt violative line, a mates of caller accomplishment players connected discourtesy and Dennis Allen coaching the defense, you tin spot however they mightiness be. Since 2020 -- the archetypal play successful which the NFL's expanded playoff format made it imaginable -- nary part has sent each 4 of its teams to the playoffs successful the aforesaid season. But it's bound to hap astatine immoderate point, and this part looks loaded.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

Chicago's the cardinal to making this happen, but it inactive seems a small spot excessively soon with its existent roster. The Bears play 10 games against teams that made past season's playoffs, positive games against the Cowboys and Bengals, who should beryllium improved. Tough schedule, pugnacious division. And adjacent if the Bears bash interruption done this year, their occurrence is apt to travel astatine the disbursal of astatine slightest 1 of their part rivals.

As for the remainder of the NFC, the Eagles inactive look awesome. The Commanders look primed to physique connected past season's astonishment NFC Championship Game run. The 49ers should bounce backmost and situation the Rams successful the NFC West. Quarterback Dak Prescott's instrumentality could marque Dallas a origin successful the always-unpredictable East. Heck, possibly the NFC South could get much than 1 team. ... OK, sorry. That's taking it excessively far. But the constituent is, it's not arsenic if determination aren't playoff-caliber teams elsewhere successful the conference. It's going to beryllium pugnacious for the North to get 4 teams in.

The Chiefs' streak of 9 consecutive AFC West titles volition travel to an end

Here's different part successful which 3 teams made past year's playoffs. The squad that didn't hired Pete Carroll arsenic caput manager and traded for QB Geno Smith. Why can't this beryllium the part that gets each 4 teams in? Are the Broncos- and Chargers-shaped objects successful Kansas City's rearview reflector person than they appear?

Denver beefed up its already fantabulous defence with Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, and it brought successful choky extremity Evan Engram to springiness second-year QB Bo Nix different target. The Chargers added a mates of caller moving backs, a mates of caller wide receivers and signed 6-foot-7, 363-pound defender Mekhi Becton distant from the Super Bowl champs to further fortify their violative line.

The Raiders made large upgrades astatine manager and quarterback. They besides program to physique a moving crippled astir rookie moving backmost Ashton Jeanty, who was 1 of the champion players successful the draught astatine immoderate position. Everyone's gunning for backmost Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who looked wobbly astatine times past play and saw their flimsy walk extortion get embarrassingly exposed successful the Super Bowl.

play

1:25

Why Sam Acho isn't putting anyone implicit the Chiefs successful the AFC

Sam Acho explains wherefore the Chiefs are inactive up of the Bills and Ravens successful the AFC.

The verdict: OVERREACTION

As wobbly arsenic the Chiefs looked past season, they inactive won 15 games successful the regular play and 17 total. They finished 4 games up of the Chargers and 5 up of the Broncos successful spite of conceding the last crippled of the play successful Denver by sitting their starters.

That's a ton of crushed for those teams to marque up, adjacent if they some person improved their rosters. Especially due to the fact that the Chiefs astir apt got better, too!

They judge they've improved astatine near tackle by signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons successful the archetypal round. Wide receiver Rashee Rice was sentenced Thursday to 30 days successful jail, which tin beryllium served astatine immoderate constituent during a five-year probationary period, but is backmost from the wounded that ended his play early. Additionally, Hollywood Brown is backmost from the ACL wounded that forced him to commencement his play late. Add successful the improvements that 2024 first-round prime Xavier Worthy made passim past season, and Mahomes has crushed to consciousness a batch amended astir his wide receiver group.

A steadfast moving backmost Isiah Pacheco and a slimmed-down choky extremity Travis Kelce assistance circular retired a accomplishment radical determined to avenge that embarrassing Super Bowl loss. The Chiefs aren't giving this part up easily.

At slightest 3 of the Browns' existent quarterbacks volition commencement games for them this season

Without Deshaun Watson, who's making different $46 cardinal this play but is apt to miss most, if not all, of it portion recovering from an Achilles injury, the Browns' existent QB extent illustration includes Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. There's a batch of speculation that 1 of those guys could get traded betwixt present and the commencement of the season. But adjacent if that happens, it'll inactive beryllium a crowded country with much questions than answers.

Odds are that 1 of the veterans -- Flacco oregon Pickett -- volition unfastened the play arsenic the starter. But fixed the Browns' past astatine the presumption and that astir teams usage much than 1 starting backmost per season, it's just to presume the Week 1 starter won't needfully beryllium the aforesaid successful Week 17.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The trade the Browns made with the Jaguars to let Jacksonville to determination up to draught Travis Hunter near Cleveland with an other first-round prime successful the 2026 draft. At that point, determination volition beryllium conscionable 1 twelvemonth near connected Watson's declaration and the squad surely volition person moved connected from the thought of him arsenic its semipermanent aboriginal (if it hasn't already).

With 2 first-rounders successful a draught that's expected to beryllium amended astatine QB than this year's, the Browns volition request to spell into adjacent offseason with immoderate certainty astir who they already person connected the roster. Even if Flacco oregon Pickett opens the play arsenic the starter, Cleveland needs to find retired what it has successful third-round prime Gabriel oregon fifth-round prime Sanders. It seems similar an implicit slam-dunk that astatine slightest 3 quarterbacks volition commencement games for the Browns this season.

It's the Commanders' crook to triumph the NFC East

Not overmuch was expected of the Commanders past season, but they were 1 of the large surprises. Led by caller caput manager Dan Quinn and rookie backmost Jayden Daniels, the Commanders won their last 5 games of the regular play (including 1 against the Eagles) to marque the playoffs arsenic a chaotic card. Then they upset the Buccaneers and Lions to beforehand to the NFC Championship Game.

Washington's 12-5 grounds enactment the squad lone 2 games down Philadelphia, and they traded for veterans specified arsenic near tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. successful an effort to instrumentality the adjacent measurement and maximize Daniels' rookie-contract window. The Eagles inactive look phenomenal and deservedly volition unfastened arsenic the part favorites, but nary squad has repeated arsenic NFC East champion since 2004. The Commanders person their sights acceptable connected bigger things successful 2025.

play

2:16

Can the Commanders surpass the Eagles successful the NFC East?

Mike Tannenbaum and Peter Rosenberg item wherefore they person the Commanders winning the NFC East.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It's astir apt really the Giants' turn, due to the fact that each different NFC East squad has won the part astatine slightest 3 times since New York past did it successful 2011. But since a Giants part rubric would beryllium an adjacent bigger astonishment than what Washington did past season, let's support it focused connected the Commanders for now.

Quinn took the Falcons to the Super Bowl successful his 2nd play arsenic Atlanta's caput coach, truthful he's not 1 to temper expectations. The acquisition Daniels got and the poise helium has already shown successful 4th quarters of immense games should lone assistance him moving forward.

Championship-seasoned veterans specified arsenic Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz, who were brought successful to assistance jump-start a caller culture, are backmost for different run. Veteran cornerback Marshon Lattimore should beryllium amended than helium was successful his post-trade-deadline stint past season. And portion there's nary crushed to uncertainty the Eagles, it's incredibly pugnacious to repetition arsenic champion successful this division.

Dallas should beryllium amended with backmost Dak Prescott backmost healthy, but Washington looks to person much than the Cowboys do. It's precise imaginable that the Commanders instrumentality different leap and decorativeness connected apical successful the East.

Baker Mayfield volition pb the Buccaneers to different part rubric -- and onshore a monolithic caller contract

The Buccaneers person won the NFC South 4 years successful a enactment -- doubly with Tom Brady and doubly with Mayfield. The twelvemonth earlier that streak started, they won the Super Bowl from a wild-card spot.

Tampa Bay has softly been 1 of the astir consistently bully teams successful spite of tons of changes, and Mayfield's vocation resurgence has been a large crushed for that. The Bucs got him for adjacent to thing earlier the 2023 season, past rewarded him with a three-year, $100 million declaration anterior to the 2024 season.

After this year, Mayfield volition person 1 twelvemonth and $27 cardinal near connected his deal. He's lone 30 years old, and if helium leads the Bucs to a 5th consecutive part rubric with yet different caller violative coordinator, you person to judge he'll beryllium successful enactment for an adjacent bigger hold this clip around.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Falcons look similar the apical challenger, but they couldn't unseat the Bucs past play adjacent aft beating Tampa Bay successful some head-to-head matchups. Wide receiver Chris Godwin should beryllium backmost for the Bucs from his season-ending ankle injury, and they made 1 of the sneaky-good offseason pickups successful borderline rusher Haason Reddick.

It's just to beryllium acrophobic astir the imaginable nonaccomplishment of near tackle Tristan Wirfs for the archetypal period of the play due to the fact that of a knee injury, oregon astir the violative coordinator leaving for a caput coaching occupation for the 2nd offseason successful a row. But it would beryllium unfair to judge the Bucs don't person the quality to lick their ain problems. Mayfield recovered a location successful Tampa Bay and has been consistently productive since helium got there. The Bucs merit to beryllium the part favorites. And if they triumph it again, Mayfield volition person a beardown lawsuit for a large raise.