Expert picks, best bets for UFC 318 and PFL Cape Town

The clip has travel for Dustin Poirier to laic down his gloves, but not earlier 1 much scrap successful his location authorities of Louisiana with his longtime rival, BMF titleholder Max Holloway. The 2 fighters archetypal met astatine featherweight successful Holloway's UFC debut successful 2012. Poirier's invited acquisition was a triangle armbar that made Holloway pat retired 3:23 into the archetypal round.

By the clip Poirier and Holloway met again successful 2019, they had grown into 2 of the astir fashionable fighters connected the roster. Holloway, then-featherweight champion, moved up to look Poirier for the interim lightweight belt. The Lafayette, Louisiana, autochthonal got the amended of the Hawaiian champion again, this clip via unanimous decision.

The last combat successful their history-making trilogy connected Saturday astatine UFC 318 successful New Orleans (10 p.m. ET connected ESPN+ PPV; prelims astatine 6 p.m. connected ESPN2 and ESPN+) volition person different loop astatine stake, the BMF rubric Holloway won via an iconic last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje astatine UFC 300 past year.

Across the satellite successful Cape Town, South Africa, the PFL Champions Series volition besides beryllium successful enactment connected Saturday (2 p.m. ET connected ESPN+). Undefeated middleweight champion Johnny Eblen, ranked No. 7 successful ESPN's divisional rankings, volition conscionable Costello van Steenis successful the main event. Women's flyweight champion Dakota Ditcheva, No. 10 successful ESPN pound-for-pound rankings, volition besides beryllium backmost successful enactment for the archetypal clip this twelvemonth against erstwhile Bellator combatant Sumiko Inaba.

ESPN MMA analysts and commentators supply their Poirier vs. Holloway predictions, and ESPN betting adept Ian Parker adds penetration connected the worth bets disposable connected some combat cards.

Lightweight main event

We tin speech astir X's and O's each we want, but for immoderate reason, Dustin Poirier has yet to conflict with Max Holloway. There's conscionable a happening successful sports sometimes wherever 1 feline has another's number, and I deliberation that's the lawsuit here. Dustin is conscionable a much impactful striker. Max is great, but I don't deliberation helium has capable powerfulness to consistently basal with these lightweights. -- Anthony Smith

It's a location crippled for Dustin, and I deliberation helium has the quality to counterpunch Max. That's what gave Holloway problems successful his past combat with Poirier, and I'm not definite Holloway has picked up connected that and made the indispensable adjustments. It's going to beryllium a adjacent fight, though. Competitive fight. I conscionable deliberation Dustin wins much rounds. -- Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds close arsenic of Thursday. For the astir up-to-date odds, sojourn ESPN BET.

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Why Dana White is amped up for Holloway vs. Poirier 3

UFC President Dana White tells Pat McAfee wherefore he's excited astir UFC 318, particularly the main lawsuit betwixt Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.

Parker: Over 4.5 rounds. Just similar the archetypal 2 fights betwixt Poirier and Holloway, I expect this 1 to beryllium exciting. With 2 fighters of this caliber who person immoderate of the champion durability successful the sport, it would beryllium shocking if this combat wasn't competitory from doorbell to bell. The biggest question could beryllium however Holloway responds to the archetypal knockout nonaccomplishment of his career, the past clip retired against Ilia Topuria. Poirier doesn't transportation the aforesaid power. He is much the benignant to deterioration you down and decorativeness you precocious successful the fight, truthful the implicit 4.5 rounds feels similar the play here. If you privation amended odds, instrumentality the combat to spell the distance.

Parker's champion bets connected the remainder of the UFC card

Middleweight: Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Kopylov to triumph (-240). Costa had a batch of occurrence earlier successful his vocation knocking retired opponents and imposing his volition with his athleticism, but it's been a portion since helium has had a ascendant triumph implicit anyone of significance. Enter Kopylov. He is the betting favorite, and I americium shocked the fig isn't higher. Kopylov is the amended striker and has worked hard of precocious to amended his takedown defense. Unless Costa turns into Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez and becomes an unthinkable wrestler with unlimited cardio, look for Kopylov to enactment connected a striking session and get the triumph here. If you don't similar the -240 odds, instrumentality Kopylov to triumph by decision.

Featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull

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Cormier, Rogan bewildered astatine arguable stoppage successful featured prelim

Daniel Cormier and Joe Rogan can't judge Dan Ige's stoppage triumph successful the featured prelim of UFC 314.

Ige to triumph (-220). Coming disconnected a knockout win, Ige volition beryllium looking to adhd Pitbull to his résumé and proceed to ascent the ranks of the featherweight division. Ige has an endless state tank, fight-ending powerfulness and a precocious combat IQ, which should wage disconnected good for him against a seasoned MMA veteran. Pitbull didn't look similar himself successful his UFC debut, a determination nonaccomplishment to Yair Rodriguez successful April, but helium was 1 of Bellator MMA's champion fighters for a agelong time. Expect a competitory combat here. Both guys thin to commencement slowly, but Ige's measurement and gait volition summation arsenic the combat goes connected and get him the win. Ige opened arsenic a -175 favourite and has climbed to -220. If those likelihood proceed to rise, instrumentality Ige to triumph and the implicit 1.5 rounds.

Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen

Allen to triumph (-210). Allen and Vettori person had run-ins extracurricular the cage successful the past, and present they volition get to settee their differences successful the Octagon. Allen is simply a -210 favorite, and I hold with the oddsmakers. As bully arsenic Vettori, a nine-year UFC veteran, erstwhile was, helium has go a low-volume striker with nary takedown attempts. But helium inactive holds onto his durability. Allen has each the skills to beryllium a champion but tends to autumn abbreviated close earlier a rubric is successful sight. He is getting Vettori astatine the close clip successful his career, and I expect Allen to beryllium the amended combatant everyplace and anyplace the combat goes. When Allen is aggressive, helium is astatine his best. Expect him to amusement retired successful his location authorities of Louisiana.

Parker's champion bets for PFL Cape Town

Middleweight: Johnny Eblen vs. Costello van Steenis

Eblen to win; implicit 2.5. rounds. In the main event, Eblen volition look to support his middleweight title against lethal striker van Steenis. Look for Eblen, a dense favorite, to get this combat to the crushed aboriginal and support a menacing gait to tyre retired van Steenis and lessen his striking powerfulness arsenic the combat goes on. Either enactment Eblen arsenic the anchor to your parlay oregon instrumentality him to triumph and the implicit 2.5 rounds. He should triumph rounds and instrumentality this combat into heavy waters.

Women's flyweight: Dakota Ditcheva vs. Sumiko Inaba

Ditcheva to triumph by TKO/KO. Inaba volition beryllium looking to derail the hype bid of Ditcheva, but I conscionable don't spot that happening. Ditcheva has world-class striking and fight-ending powerfulness that continues to get amended each clip she hits the PFL SmartCage. The lone mode to stake this combat is to instrumentality Ditcheva by TKO/KO. For the champion likelihood possible, instrumentality her to decorativeness it successful Round 1.

Heavyweight: Corey Anderson vs. Denis Goltsov

Anderson to win. In a combat that tin dictate who competes for the PFL heavyweight rubric aboriginal successful the year, erstwhile Bellator airy heavyweight champion Anderson takes connected past season's PFL heavyweight champion Golstov. The result of this combat is going to beryllium connected whether Anderson tin outwrestle his hostile aboriginal and past Round 1. On the feet, I would thin toward Golstov, but the wrestling and cardio departments beryllium to Anderson. I americium going to instrumentality a flier connected the underdog, Anderson, due to the fact that Golstov has a questionable state vessel and was excessively easy taken down by Oleg Popov successful his past fight.