From Pacers turnovers to Thunder free throws, here's how the opening games produced statistical outliers

Two games into the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder are each squared up astatine a triumph apiece, and the publication hasn't deviated overmuch from expectations going in.

For instance, we knew that if the Pacers were going to bargain 1 connected the Thunder's location court, Indiana astir apt would request immoderate of the aforesaid magic that has carried it passim this playoff run. And indeed, Game 1 gave the Thunder a taste of the aforesaid medicine Indiana fed the Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks earlier successful the postseason. But then, arsenic has usually been the lawsuit erstwhile coming disconnected a playoff loss, Oklahoma City flexed its superior endowment successful Game 2, pulling distant early and ne'er letting the Pacers backmost into the contest.

So yes, the wide arc of the bid mightiness consciousness familiar. But that doesn't mean the numbers person been mundane. From Pacers turnovers to Thunder escaped throws, the opening games produced statistical outliers arsenic compared with however these teams usually play. That's important to consider, due to the fact that 1 of the champion ways to recognize what a squad is doing good -- oregon wherever it is falling abbreviated -- is to comparison each statistical class to the baseline that got it present successful the archetypal place.

With that successful mind, I grabbed the crippled logs (in accepted and precocious metrics) for the teams and calculated their percentile grades for Games 1 and 2 comparative to each the matchups played successful some the regular play and the postseason.

The categories that, connected average, person deviated astir during the Finals from full-season norms are the areas wherever the teams are playing astir dissimilar themselves, for bully and for bad.

By that measure, present are the 5 biggest outliers of the bid frankincense far, successful presumption of however each squad is performing comparative to ... well, itself.

Jump to a stat outlier:
2-pointers | Turnovers/steals
Free throws | Scoring | Assists

Indiana 2-pointers

Across the full play frankincense far, the Pacers person averaged 30.0 made 2-pointers per crippled connected 56.6% shooting from wrong the arc; they besides ranked among the NBA's apical five successful some categories during the regular season. And individually, Pascal Siakam ranked 18th successful the league with 6.2 made 2s per game, starring an Indiana onslaught that was less reliant connected 3-pointers than the emblematic squad during the 2024-25 campaign.

During these Finals, however, the Pacers person turned into a wholly antithetic team, averaging conscionable 22.0 made 2-pointers per crippled -- with Siakam's fig dropping to 4.0 per crippled -- connected 51.8% shooting, some of which are among the team's lowest accumulation connected 2s of the season.

At the aforesaid time, Indiana is averaging 39.5 3-point tries per game, taking much than 48% of its shots from beyond the arc (compared with play averages of 35.5 and 40%). The Pacers did walk a batch of clip trailing successful some games, which explains immoderate of the shift, but they've besides been knocked disconnected their accustomed shooting premix successful this series.

Indiana turnovers/opponent steals

On a related note, Indiana besides hasn't made arsenic galore shots from the tract due to the fact that it has turned the shot implicit truthful much. Nearly 18% of the Pacers' possessions person ended successful a giveaway, according to Basketball-Reference, which is overmuch higher than their 11.9% complaint from the play arsenic a whole. And their 25 turnovers successful Game 1 were the astir by a squad that won a Finals crippled since 1977.

Oklahoma City's steals, specifically, person been among the biggest outliers successful stats frankincense far. Its 14 takeaways successful Game 1 were tied for the 2nd astir Indiana allowed successful a crippled each play (and easy the highest of the playoffs). And OKC's 12.0 steals per crippled successful Games 1 and 2 dwarfed the Pacers' accustomed mean of 7.3 SPG allowed.

The Thunder are arguably the league's champion turnover-forcing antiaircraft machine, but the Pacers were 1 of the champion astatine resisting turnovers connected offense.

Something had to give, and that thing is favoring Oklahoma City close now.

Oklahoma City escaped throws

While definite members of the Thunder have a reputation for getting to the enactment unusually often, Oklahoma City's discourtesy was not among the league's astir foul-reliant during the regular season, ranking 24th successful made escaped throws per tract extremity effort and averaging lone 16.7 escaped throws per crippled (19th most).

In the Finals, however, Oklahoma City is surviving astatine the line, averaging 25.0 escaped throws per crippled with a ratio of FTs per FGA that is 51% higher than during the play overall.

The Thunder's 29 makes from the foul enactment successful Game 2 were the third most they made successful a azygous crippled each play agelong and were tied for the fourth astir Indiana allowed successful a game, arsenic well. The Pacers are fouling much than their accustomed average, but the Thunder besides person helped themselves by making 87.7% of their escaped throws successful the series, with these Finals featuring 2 of their 5 astir close outings astatine the enactment successful the full playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander unsocial has accounted for 36% of the Thunder's made escaped throws arsenic a team, someway improving connected his league-leading complaint of made escaped throws per crippled from the regular season.

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Thunder adjacent bid with Pacers down SGA's large game

The Oklahoma City Thunder instrumentality Game 2 of the NBA Finals down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 34 points.

Indiana scoring

Despite improved equilibrium this season, the Pacers are inactive an offensively reliant team, ranking No. 9 successful offensive efficiency during the regular play -- versus No. 13 connected defence -- and No. 2 on offense during the playoffs. Across the full season, Indiana is averaging 117.2 points per game, but successful the Finals truthful far, that fig has dipped to 109.0. In the playoffs, it has lone been held to 111 points oregon less successful each of the opening 2 games of a series.

This can't beryllium explained by a slower pace, either; the 99.8 possessions per Finals crippled is somewhat higher than the Pacers' seasonlong mean of 99.6. But it tin beryllium explained by a fewer of the factors antecedently mentioned: trading much 2s for 3s and (especially) turning the shot implicit truthful much.

Either way, the nett effect is less points, particularly for the Pacers. After averaging a combined 39.9 points per crippled during the playoffs anterior to the Finals, Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton person conscionable 32.5 PPG unneurotic successful the Finals.

Both teams' assists

One aboriginal inclination that unifies some offenses is that their assistance numbers are down arsenic compared with their accustomed averages.

Using their emblematic numbers from the play arsenic a whole, Indiana and Oklahoma City's combined assists would fig to adhd up to a full of 55.5 per game, with 29.0 coming from the Pacers and 26.5 from the Thunder. But done the archetypal 2 Finals games, they're down to a combined mean of 44.5 APG, with Indiana falling to 25.5 and Oklahoma City dropping to 19.0.

Those are a brace of beauteous important declines, though they are happening for antithetic reasons.

For Indiana, its complaint of assists per made handbasket really has gone up successful the Finals (from 66.9% to 67.3%), but it is conscionable making acold less buckets than accustomed (38.0 FG/game versus a emblematic mean of 43.3).

Oklahoma City, however, is genuinely spreading the shot astir little than usual, with an assistance complaint of 47.9% successful Games 1 and 2 (including 33.3% successful Game 1, its lowest share of the full season) arsenic compared with a seasonlong mean of 59.7%. Gilgeous-Alexander was up from 3 assists successful Game 1 to 8 successful Game 2, but the Pacers astir apt volition look to support denying the Thunder's shot question from here.