From the big six to MLB's disappointments: Second-half preview, rankings, playoff odds for all 30 teams

Some things astir the 2025 MLB play person been predictable: the Los Angeles Dodgers having 1 of the champion records successful the majors, Aaron Judge having another MVP-caliber season and Paul Skenes continuing to predominate connected the mound arsenic one of baseball's champion pitchers.

As always, though, determination person been a fig of surprises, excessively -- some bully and bad. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves person had incredibly disappointing campaigns, with some clubs adjacent the bottommost of their respective leagues. Juan Soto began his tenure with the New York Mets disconnected to a dilatory commencement earlier heating up and riding that momentum into the All-Star break. Nobody thought the Colorado Rockies would beryllium bully this twelvemonth -- but cipher thought they'd beryllium this bad, connected gait to interruption the single-season nonaccomplishment grounds set by the Chicago White Sox conscionable past season.

The 2nd fractional of the play is definite to bring much excitement, with a conflict astatine the apical for champion grounds betwixt the Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs. A fig of part races are besides close, arsenic the Cubs are lone up a crippled connected the Milwaukee Brewers successful the NL Central, the Mets are conscionable a half-game down the Philadelphia Phillies successful the NL East and the Toronto Blue Jays, aft a red-hot streak to extremity the archetypal half, pb the New York Yankees by 2 games. And the wild-card races could spell down to the wire, with six teams successful the American League wrong 5 games of the last chaotic paper and 4 successful the National League wrong six games of the last spot.

How volition each of these teams execute successful the 2nd half? Who volition predominate successful the homestretch? And what does your nine person to play for?

We've breached down each 30 squads into six tiers based connected playoff imaginable and asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield, Jorge Castillo, Eric Karabell and Tristan Cockcroft to supply a rundown of what the remainder of the play looks similar for each team. We've besides included Doolittle's last win-loss projections and calculated part title, playoff and title likelihood for each 30 teams.

Rest-of-season projections are based connected 10,000 Monte Carlo-style simulations of the remaining docket utilizing Doolittle's powerfulness ratings for each squad arsenic the ground for the simulated outcomes. The powerfulness ratings are determined by season-to-date results and forecast-based estimates of roster strength.

Note: Teams are successful bid of best-to-worst playoff likelihood wrong their respective tiers.

TIER 1: THE BIG SIX

Detroit Tigers

Record: 59-38 | Projected last record: 96-66

Division rubric odds: 98.6% | Playoff odds: 99.7% | Championship odds: 13.4%

How they got to the top: The Tigers exploded retired of the gross connected the spot of a launch-heavy discourtesy and dynamic starting pitching. By the clip Detroit cooled a bit, it had already built a double-digit pb successful the AL Central. Emergent prima powerfulness has fueled the Tigers' well-balanced roster. Riley Greene (.284, 24 homers, 78 RBIs) has led the offense, portion defending AL Cy Young victor Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.23 ERA) is building a beardown case to triumph the grant again. The stars person been boosted by surprise/improved performances from Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize and others up and down the roster.

What to expect from here: With the part contention each but wrapped up, the Tigers' 2nd fractional volition beryllium astir filling successful roster gaps up to and including deadline day. The pitching unit needs much extent successful some the rotation and the bullpen. The starting unit was thinned by Jackson Jobe's wounded and, increasingly, it's unclear erstwhile seasoned Alex Cobb mightiness return. More pressing is the request successful a bullpen that has been much coagulated than dominant. In a postseason setting, you privation much of the second than the erstwhile erstwhile it comes to championship-leverage precocious points. -- Doolittle

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 58-39 | Projected last record: 97-65

Division rubric odds: 91.8% | Playoff odds: 99.0% | Championship odds: 16.4%

How they got to the top: By getting their starting pitchers healthy. The Dodgers entered the All-Star interruption with the NL's champion grounds adjacent though they received a combined 8 starts from Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, 2 pitchers who were expected to beforehand their rotation. But Glasnow has since returned from injury, Snell could articulation him earlier the extremity of the period and Shohei Ohtani is pitching again (and looks truly good, albeit successful tiny samples). The Dodgers were severely shorthanded successful their rotation passim the archetypal fractional and had to pain done their bullpen, a portion that leads the majors successful innings pitched by a wide margin. They've been carried by a deep, high-profile discourtesy and respective back-end-of-the-roster pitchers who person taken connected bigger roles. Snell and Tony Gonsolin being full-fledged members of their rotation, and Ohtani getting much stretched out, could elevate them to a antithetic level.

What to expect from here: The Dodgers inactive person to span a spread astatine 3rd base, with Max Muncy retired astatine slightest done July with a genu wounded that wasn't arsenic atrocious arsenic initially feared. Muncy had been 1 of the sport's astir productive hitters since the mediate of May. The lack of his left-handed bat has near a large void.

Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, is successful the midst of a prolonged slump, and Mookie Betts has yet to truly get going offensively. Freeman and Betts request to get connected track. So does Michael Conforto, who slashed lone .184/.298/.322 successful the archetypal half. The Dodgers are expected to people back-end relievers up of the commercialized deadline, but they could question an upgrade successful near tract if Conforto doesn't amusement signs of turning things around. -- Gonzalez

Chicago Cubs

Record: 57-39 | Projected last record: 97-65

Division rubric odds: 79.3% | Playoff odds: 98.6% | Championship odds: 15.4%

How they got to the top: With a dynamic discourtesy that simply ne'er slumped for much than a crippled oregon two. The Cubs are 1 of 2 teams not to person been swept successful a bid of 3 games oregon more, and it's not due to the fact that of their pitching unit but due to the fact that they person the quality to people successful truthful galore ways. They fertile 2nd successful slugging and 3rd successful stolen bases, which means astir each presumption successful the bid tin either deed the shot retired of the parkland oregon bargain a basal -- or, successful the cases of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker, bash both. A top-ranked defence besides has helped them unafraid archetypal spot successful the NL Central, arsenic has a revamped bullpen led by young person Daniel Palencia.

What to expect from here: The Cubs should support scoring capable successful the 2nd fractional to pb them to their archetypal postseason quality since 2020. The beforehand bureau is apt to beryllium precise progressive earlier the commercialized deadline arsenic well, looking to adhd a starter, a reliever and possibly assistance astatine 3rd base. The Cubs won't beryllium the favorites successful a bid against the Phillies oregon Dodgers but person proved to beryllium arsenic unsafe arsenic anyone successful the NL. -- Rogers

Houston Astros

Record: 56-40 | Projected last record: 93-69

Division rubric odds: 81.2% | Playoff odds: 96.4% | Championship odds: 9.2%

How they got to the top: Getting to the apical is modular successful Houston. The Astros should marque it 9 consecutive seasons qualifying for the playoffs, possibly reaching the ALCS for the 5th clip successful that span. However, looking person astatine this year's squad successful particular, this AL West tally whitethorn beryllium the astir surprising, arsenic Kyle Tucker is simply a Cub, 2nd baseman Jose Altuve is simply a near fielder and Yordan Alvarez is connected the sidelines. The DH has deed .210 successful 29 games, succumbing to a manus wounded since the archetypal crippled of May. The assured Astros stay a top-five squad due to the fact that of their top-five ERA, led by right-hander Hunter Brown, left-hander Framber Valdez and arguably the league's champion bullpen. New leadoff enactment Jeremy Pena posting a top-five WAR has been critical, too.

What to expect from here: More winning. The Astros are utilized to this contending thing, adjacent arsenic immoderate (many) of the names change. Twelve games stay versus the anxious Mariners and hopeful Rangers, but it is hard to stake against the Astros winning the AL West for the 5th consecutive year. Reintegrating the fantabulous Alvarez, whose streak of earning MVP votes for 3 consecutive seasons figures to extremity this fall, is cardinal to the lineup, which has lacked extent and popular with catcher Yainer Diaz and newcomer archetypal baseman Christian Walker underachieving. The rotation needs stableness aft the stars, and possibly right-handers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia tin supply it. Expect the Astros to play October baseball. -- Karabell

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 55-41 | Projected last record: 93-69

Division rubric odds: 66.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 7.9%

How they got to the top: The Phillies' starting unit has been magnificent, boasting the lowest ERA successful the game. It begins with Zack Wheeler but it hardly ends there. Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez person been each spot arsenic good, and portion Jesus Luzardo has slowed down a little, helium helped Philadelphia triumph aboriginal connected portion Suarez was retired with an wounded and Aaron Nola was struggling. Even Taijuan Walker has contributed aft immoderate struggles a twelvemonth ago. Make nary mistake, adjacent with a star-laden lineup, the Phillies person been led by their rotation.

What to expect from here: Philadelphia isn't playing for March-September glory. It's each astir October, which means staying steadfast volition beryllium No.1 connected the to-do database the remainder of the way. But don't expect president of shot operations Dave Dombrowski to simply trust connected his seasoned radical without augmenting the roster earlier the commercialized deadline. As bully arsenic the Phillies person been successful the rotation, they've had bullpen issues, ranking 23rd successful ERA. Jose Alvarado has been great, but newcomer Jordan Romano 's 1.50 WHIP is problematic. Expect an summation determination but mostly expect the Phillies to play their champion shot down the stretch. This is an all-in twelvemonth for them. -- Rogers

New York Mets

Record: 55-42 | Projected last record: 90-72

Division rubric odds: 33.2% | Playoff odds: 80.1% | Championship odds: 4.2%

How they got to the top: It's been a communicative of 3 chapters for the 2025 Mets. During the first, from Opening Day done June 12, they produced the champion grounds successful shot down the champion pitching unit successful baseball. The second, done the extremity of June, saw them station the worst grounds successful the majors owed to the aforesaid unit falling apart. In the third, a 12-day illustration starring into the All-Star break, the Mets rebounded to spell 7-5. New York cannot expect the pitching unit to rediscover its aboriginal magic. Injuries person depleted the rotation, placing the onus connected a bullpen that was throwing connected fumes. The interruption came astatine an opportune time.

What to expect from here: Teams similar equating players coming disconnected the injured database successful July to commercialized deadline acquisitions. In the Mets' case, they received 2 erstwhile Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea were some activated successful the club's last bid earlier the break. The additions are significant. Senga and Manaea were the team's projected apical 2 starters entering outpouring training. They assistance offset the caller losses of Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen, however, remains an country to code earlier the July 31 deadline.

Offensively, Juan Soto's elite accumulation since the commencement of June -- helium was named the NL Player of the Month for June -- aft a sluggish two-month commencement to his Mets vocation has changed the lineup's complexion. With Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, who has besides been 1 of baseball's hottest hitters since June 1, the apical of the Mets' lineup is 1 of the champion successful the majors. -- Castillo

TIER 2: ESTABLISHED CONTENDERS

New York Yankees

Record: 53-43 | Projected last record: 92-70

Division rubric odds: 58.7% | Playoff odds: 93.3% | Championship odds: 13.0%

How they marque the leap to the apical tier: Yankees wide manager Brian Cashman precocious made it clear: He believes the roster could usage upgrades successful the starting rotation, bullpen and infield (specifically 3rd base). So expect the Yankees to code those areas earlier the July 31 commercialized deadline, with pitching assistance taking precedence aft starter Clarke Schmidt was lost for the play to Tommy John country this month. Besides acquisitions, the Yankees request Aaron Judge to proceed producing astatine an MVP level, the boppers astir him to consistently lend and shortstop Anthony Volpe to reverse a descent that has seeped into his defense.

What to expect from here: Luis Gil's instrumentality to the rotation from a lat wounded that has sidelined him each play -- the Yankees are targeting precocious July oregon aboriginal August -- volition beryllium welcomed, and imaginable Cam Schlittler's caller large league debut was promising, but Cashman believes helium needs different starter. His investigation of his roster means he'll beryllium engaged successful the adjacent 2 weeks. To bolster the team, he'll request to relinquish talent. The names moved could see apical imaginable Spencer Jones, a towering slugger who has torn up Triple-A since getting promoted past month. If the close players are acquired, the Yankees could capitalize connected different MVP twelvemonth from Judge, triumph the AL East for the 3rd clip successful 4 seasons and instrumentality to the World Series. -- Castillo

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 56-40 | Projected last record: 91-71

Division rubric odds: 18.8% | Playoff odds: 86.8% | Championship odds: 5.4%

How they marque the leap to the apical tier: At this point, does anybody retrieve that the Brewers started the play 0-4 portion getting outscored 47-15? It took a portion for them to find their footing, but Milwaukee is close backmost wherever it has been for astir of the past decade. This time, the Brewers are doing it with a surfeit of productive young talent. They pb the majors successful WAR (per a FanGraphs/Baseball Reference consensus) from rookies. With truthful galore young players connected the rise, it's not wide that the National League's hottest squad entering the interruption needs to bash immoderate much than enactment the course.

What to expect from here: This mightiness beryllium the champion mentation of the Brewers that we've seen during this existent agelong tally of success. The discourtesy is diversion and amended balanced than the homer/strikeout-heavy attacks of caller vintage. The squad defence is apical 5 successful baseball. The rotation is dynamic and deep; if anyone goes down, the Brewers person Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick astatine Triple-A. Finding prime relievers is ne'er a occupation for Milwaukee. This squad is for existent and the NL Central contention is going to beryllium a doozy. -- Doolittle

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 55-41 | Projected last record: 89-73

Division rubric odds: 23.7% | Playoff odds: 77.5% | Championship odds: 3.0%

How they marque the leap to the apical tier: Keep playing similar they person since June 26. The Blue Jays went 12-4 heading into the All-Star break, including an awesome four-game expanse astatine location implicit the Yankees that vaulted Toronto into archetypal place. The cardinal has been an discourtesy that averaged 5.6 runs successful that agelong and lifted the Jays' squad mean to .258, tied with the Astros and Rays for champion successful the majors. The Jays person been outhomered 126 to 101, truthful they volition request to trust connected hitting for mean to nutrient runs -- though if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets blistery and George Springer and Addison Barger support slugging, possibly they'll deed for some mean and powerfulness the remainder of the way.

What to expect from here: The Blue Jays are 17-12 successful one-run games and 7-3 successful extra-inning games, truthful they've excelled successful adjacent games adjacent though person Jeff Hoffman has allowed 9 location runs. Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez person helped stabilize the remainder of the bullpen, however, providing a large betterment implicit what was a large anemic spot past year. It's hard to wholly bargain into the Blue Jays since they are 14 games implicit .500 with conscionable a plus-17 tally differential, but that tally differential is plus-51 since the opening of May, and that feels much similar a morganatic contender. At this point, they surely consciousness similar a playoff team, particularly if that bullpen trio keeps performing well. -- Schoenfield

TIER 3: FIRMLY IN THE MIX

Seattle Mariners

Record: 51-45 | Projected last record: 87-75

Division rubric odds: 16.4% | Playoff odds: 68.8% | Championship odds: 2.8%

What makes them a imaginable contender: Umm, presumably you are aware of what Cal Raleigh is doing? The catcher leads the majors with 38 location runs and 82 RBIs, putting him connected gait for 64 location runs and 138 RBIs, which would interruption Judge's AL grounds of 62 location runs and beryllium the third-highest RBI full ever for a catcher. With Raleigh starring the way, the Mariners' discourtesy has amazingly been beauteous bully -- astatine slightest connected the road, wherever they are tied with the Yankees for the highest OPS and person the highest batting mean astatine .270.

But what the Mariners are hoping for are amended results from the expected spot of the team, the starting rotation. George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller person each spent clip connected the IL, and the Mariners fertile conscionable 13th successful rotation ERA, aft ranking archetypal successful 2024. If the rotation steps up successful the 2nd half, don't beryllium amazed if the Mariners tally down the Astros successful the AL West.

What to expect from here: The Mariners person to expect Raleigh to chill down. Julio Rodriguez went 6-for-12 and homered successful 3 consecutive games close earlier the interruption erstwhile the Mariners swept the Tigers, truthful possibly he'll yet get going aft scuffling each season. They person a mates of lineup positions they could upgrade, particularly 3rd base, and possibly they'll look to adhd different starting pitcher depending connected Miller's wellness outlook. With a loaded workplace system, the Mariners are good equipped to marque a large determination astatine the commercialized deadline and spell aft their archetypal part rubric since 2001. -- Schoenfield

Boston Red Sox

Record: 53-45 | Projected last record: 86-76

Division rubric odds: 10.1% | Playoff odds: 57.3% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a imaginable contender: Usually a nine trading its champion hitter triggers a regression, but the Red Sox person been an outlier aft sending Rafael Devers to San Francisco. That's mostly due to the fact that their young unchangeable of hitters, starting with Ceddanne Rafaela, has filled the void. The 24-year-old Rafaela's emergence has been astonishing. He entered May 27 batting .220 with a .602 OPS. With Boston's outfield surplus, his days arsenic the starting halfway fielder were seemingly numbered. Since then, helium has deed .329 with 12 location runs and a 1.017 OPS successful 41 games.

Expecting Rafaela to proceed the MVP-level accumulation is astir apt unreasonable, but All-Star Alex Bregman's caller instrumentality aft a seven-week lack positive Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer settling successful arsenic large leaguers should marque Boston's lineup unsafe adjacent without Devers.

What to expect from here: Add the Red Sox to the database of contenders seeking pitching assistance earlier the deadline -- some successful the bullpen and rotation. Acquiring a starter and a reliever oregon 2 could vault the Red Sox to the apical of the AL East and morganatic World Series contender status. If they don't upgrade sufficiently, they'll request the discourtesy to proceed propelling the nine for a changeable to play successful October, apt arsenic a wild-card team. -- Castillo

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 50-47 | Projected last record: 85-77

Division rubric odds: 7.6% | Playoff odds: 51.5% | Championship odds: 2.0%

What makes them a imaginable contender: Kevin Cash, two-time AL Manager of the Year (2020 and '21), has again played a immense part. Time and again, helium extracts unexpectedly large things from his players, from Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero to squad WAR person and All-Star Jonathan Aranda to captivating comeback communicative Drew Rasmussen. From May 9 done June 28, the Rays' .674 winning percent was the champion successful baseball, moving them wrong a half-game of the AL East lead.

Rasmussen has played a large portion successful a durable, dependable rotation, arsenic the Rays stunningly fertile 2nd successful innings pitched from starters (540⅔), aft having ne'er ranked higher than 23rd successful the class implicit the past 7 seasons. They're besides 2nd successful prime starts (47) and WHIP (1.15) and eighth successful ERA (3.71), and they'll get a large reinforcement successful Shane McClanahan successful a mates of weeks.

What to expect from here: The Rays did each this contempt adapting to an unfamiliar location environment, the overmuch much hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, but to compensate for them playing 53 of 97 games determination during the archetypal half, they'll present play 37 of 65 connected the roadworthy to adjacent retired the season. Don't underestimate the home-field vantage that Tropicana Field fixed the Rays, whose .635 location winning percent successful August/September since 2021 is 3rd champion successful baseball. How Cash navigates his squad done its 5 remaining roadworthy trips mightiness yet find the Rays' fate, particularly successful airy of the disappointing 2-8 travel they endured to reason the archetypal half. -- Cockcroft

San Diego Padres

Record: 52-44 | Projected last record: 87-75

Division rubric odds: 4.4% | Playoff odds: 48.6% | Championship odds: 1.5%

What makes them a imaginable contender: For each their injuries and underperformers, the Padres entered the All-Star interruption holding the 3rd NL wild-card spot, and were 5½ games backmost of the Dodgers successful the NL West. Jackson Merrill's accumulation has dipped and helium has made 2 trips to the IL, Opening Day starter Michael King has been sidelined since mid-May, and Dylan Cease's 4.88 ERA is simply a vocation worst. But the Padres astatine slightest triumph the games they're expected to, going 31-18 astatine location and 18-4 against the bottommost 5 teams successful shot successful presumption of winning percentage. They besides athletics 1 of the league's champion and deepest bullpens.

What to expect from here: General manager A.J. Preller is 1 of the game's astir assertive astatine his craft, and however helium bolsters via commercialized an discourtesy that ranks successful the bottommost 8 successful runs per game, wOBA and location runs volition play a large portion successful the Padres' postseason fate. Getting backmost a steadfast King and getting Cease and precocious activated Yu Darvish connected way earlier the toughest and astir captious intradivisional information of their docket successful mid-August volition besides beryllium important. -- Cockcroft

San Francisco Giants

Record: 52-45 | Projected last record: 86-76

Division rubric odds: 3.6% | Playoff odds: 44.3% | Championship odds: 1.3%

What makes them a imaginable contender: Their pitching. The Giants entered the All-Star interruption with the champion bullpen ERA successful the majors, with the back-end trio of Tyler Rogers, Randy Rodriguez and Camilo Doval being particularly dominant. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, meanwhile, had combined to station a 2.80 ERA successful 40 starts, forming 1 of the champion rotation duos successful the sport. New Giants president of shot operations Buster Posey wanted to physique teams that hung their chapeau connected pitching and defense, a motion to the World Series champions helium was portion of but besides a absorption to however hard it is to deed astatine Oracle Park. He's 1-for-2 truthful far. The 2025 Giants person graded retired poorly connected defense, but their pitching has kept them relevant.

What to expect from here: The Giants already made their large determination up of the commercialized deadline, acquiring Rafael Devers and his monolithic declaration from the Boston Red Sox. Devers, 1 of the game's champion hitters, was brought successful to alteration the dynamic of a mediocre Giants offense, but that has yet to happen. The three-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger has slashed conscionable .202/.330/.326 implicit his archetypal 25 games with San Francisco. At immoderate point, though, helium volition get going again. And erstwhile helium does, possibly the Giants' discourtesy -- a beardown 1 if Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee tin besides get close -- volition yet enactment the Giants' pitching. -- Gonzalez

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 51-46 | Projected last record: 84-78

Division rubric odds: 1.5% | Playoff odds: 27.9% | Championship odds: 0.7%

What makes them a imaginable contender: The Cardinals don't bash thing spectacular but they besides don't person a glaring weakness. It's been a dependable vessel since immoderate early-season struggles that astir doomed them successful the playoff race. On May 1 they were 4 games nether .500, but by June 1 they were 7 over. That dependable ascent has characterized their archetypal half. Perhaps the champion illustration of their plight is the information that they had conscionable 1 All-Star, infielder Brendan Donovan, who mightiness person made it owed to each squad needing a typical arsenic overmuch arsenic thing else. That's not to instrumentality distant from St. Louis. It's a compliment to them connected a bully fractional without star-level performances. Sonny Gray has been good. So has Alec Burleson. But the Cardinals communicative this play is astir team over individual.

What to expect from here: The adjacent 2 weeks feel critical for the Cardinals, but they mightiness person already played their mode into staying unneurotic and competing for a playoff berth. Besides, the aforesaid guys that turned down trades successful the wintertime due to the fact that of their no-trade clauses are apt to bash it again aboriginal this month. The players judge successful their team. Now it's up to absorption to bash the aforesaid -- particularly successful apical decision-maker John Mozeliak's last season.

The biggest question mightiness impact person and escaped agent-to-be Ryan Helsley. Sure, he's not having the aforesaid play helium did a twelvemonth ago, but what if Mozeliak gets an connection helium can't refuse? It's not intolerable to bash a small adding and subtracting astatine the deadline and inactive compete. St. Louis could usage different starter, arsenic Erick Fedde has struggled mightily. Meanwhile, righty Michael McGreevy should find his mode backmost into the rotation arsenic well. -- Rogers

TIER 4: PLAYING THEIR WAY OUT OF CONTENTION

Texas Rangers

Record: 48-49 | Projected last record: 82-80

Division rubric odds: 2.3% | Playoff odds: 21.8% | Championship odds: 0.8%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: No offense, Rangers fans, but this is not the violative output of a contending team. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.4 runs per crippled and mashed 233 location runs, each fig 3rd successful the sport. This season's clump is adjacent much disappointing than past year's, 24th successful runs and hardly astatine 100 location runs astatine the break. Holdovers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung (demoted to the minors) person disappointed, and newcomers Joc Pederson and Jake Burger (demoted to the minors but backmost with the club) person really disappointed.

Beleaguered manager Bruce Bochy, with fewer options, has been alternating underwhelming violative catchers Jonah Heim and Kyle Higashioka arsenic his regular DH. The league's champion pitching (3.28 ERA) keeps the nine successful the mix, but Corey Seager not lone indispensable enactment healthy, and helium needs much help.

What to expect from here: It's a tiny sample, but the Rangers boast the No. 5 wOBA successful July (12 games), arsenic Semien and Garcia look rejuvenated, and Wyatt Langford (.954 OPS successful July) solidifies a run-producing spot. Burger and Jung should amended their numbers. The Rangers whitethorn not lucifer their first-half pitching performance, but they fig to deed amended than .229 successful location games the last 2 months. Well, they amended bash that, oregon astonishing RHP Jacob deGrom, making his astir starts since the 2019 campaign, volition beryllium watching October shot for the ninth play retired of the past 10. -- Karabell

Minnesota Twins

Record: 47-49 | Projected last record: 81-81

Division rubric odds: 0.9% | Playoff odds: 17.0% | Championship odds: 0.4%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The discourtesy is averaging conscionable 4.19 runs per game, a important driblet from past season's 4.58 and mode down from the 4.80 the Twins averaged successful 2023 erstwhile they won the AL Central. It's the lowest output for the Twins since 2013, and 2 of the large culprits are expected to beryllium 2 of their champion players: Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis. Correa has been healthy, but is posting vocation lows successful OBP, slugging and OPS. Lewis has erstwhile again battled injuries, but adjacent erstwhile helium has played, helium has deed conscionable .216/.281/.302 with 2 location runs successful 42 games.

What to expect from here: Amazingly, the Twins had a 13-game winning streak successful May and inactive entered the All-Star interruption with a losing record, which shows however poorly they played speech from that stretch. The Twins haven't played good connected the road, going 19-29, and 12 of their archetypal 18 games coming retired of the interruption volition beryllium connected the road, including bid against the Dodgers and Tigers. Those 18 games volition archer america whether the Twins tin get person successful the wild-card race. If they bash find a mode to scope the postseason, they could beryllium a sleeper with 1 of the champion bullpens successful the majors, but close present it feels similar they deficiency the consistency to get there. -- Schoenfield

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 50-47 | Projected last record: 82-80

Division rubric odds: 0.4% | Playoff odds: 10.9% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The Reds' rotation has been excellent, adjacent with ace Hunter Greene missing time. That radical is besides Cincinnati's champion anticipation for crawling backmost into the wild-card picture. But the Reds haven't played good against teams successful the apical mates of tiers of the majors, and by prime of opponent, Cincinnati has arguably the toughest remaining docket of immoderate squad successful baseball. The Reds person played coagulated shot but request to beryllium a batch amended than that implicit the 2nd half.

What to expect from here: Greene should instrumentality and, fixed the spot and extent of the rotation, the Reds aren't apt to collapse. But an uneven discourtesy that doesn't person capable middle-of-the-order powerfulness isn't apt to substance a sustained run, either. The Reds are middling, successful different words, which could person worked successful immoderate versions of the NL Central, but not the 1 that has emerged successful 2025. -- Doolittle

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 47-50 | Projected last record: 80-82

Division rubric odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 8.3% | Championship odds: 0.2%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Injuries, injuries and much injuries. On the presumption subordinate side, catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielder Ildemaro Vargas and archetypal baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith person resided connected the IL since mid-June. In the bullpen, standouts Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk underwent Tommy John country past month; seasoned Shelby Miller landed connected the IL with a strained forearm July 5 to interrupt a ascendant play with a 1.98 ERA; sidearmer Ryan Thompson is retired with a enarthrosis injury; and left-hander Jalen Beeks is connected the IL with backmost inflammation. In the rotation, Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John country past period aft signing the largest declaration successful franchise past implicit the offseason.

Then determination are the important players who missed clip earlier successful the season. All-Stars Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were sidelined for weeks. So were seasoned starter Eduardo Rodriguez and reliever Kevin Ginkel. In short, it's been a terribly unlucky play for a nine that had World Series hopes.

What to expect from here: At this point, each contender is praying for the Diamondbacks' downfall implicit the adjacent 2 weeks. Arizona becoming an assertive seller would dramatically alteration the commercialized market, infusing it with endowment that would make bidding wars and nutrient immense hauls to brighten the organization's future. At 47-50 and 5½ games from a postseason spot, it'll instrumentality a heater successful the 12 games earlier the deadline for the Diamondbacks to basal pat. That astir apt isn't happening. -- Castillo

Kansas City Royals

Record: 47-50 | Projected last record: 79-83

Division rubric odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 7.7% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: The offense, and lone the offense. The Royals are playoff caliber successful each different signifier of the game. The MLB median for runs successful a crippled is four. Using that arsenic a standard, let's springiness a triumph to an discourtesy that beats 4 successful immoderate fixed game, a necktie if it matches that and a nonaccomplishment if it falls short. By that methodology, the Royals' discourtesy went 21-59-17 (.304) during the archetypal half. Only the Rockies were worse, and conscionable barely. Kansas City tin triumph with mean discourtesy but there's thing we've seen from the Royals to suggest their onslaught tin scope and enactment astatine adjacent that humble level.

What to expect from here: Everything teeters connected the commercialized deadline. Can the Royals adhd astatine slightest one, and preferably two, interaction bats, and bash truthful without undermining the squad defence that remains the club's backbone? It's a truly gangly bid and the Royals don't person the benignant of insignificant league extent oregon payroll flexibility to capable it. It's besides not wide if this year's squad is worthy of that benignant of aggression successful the archetypal place. Coming retired of the break, the Royals person to spell connected a tear, oregon they'll beryllium looking up to 2026 and beyond. -- Doolittle

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 46-49 | Projected last record: 78-84

Division rubric odds: 0.3% | Playoff odds: 6.3% | Championship odds: 0.1%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Offense. The Guardians are 26th successful the majors successful runs per game, averaging conscionable 3.72. They're hitting conscionable .222 wide and, dissimilar past play erstwhile they produced a batch of clutch hitting with runners connected base, conscionable .221 with men on. During a 10-game losing streak successful precocious June and aboriginal July, they were unopen retired 5 times, which feels similar an intolerable feat adjacent successful the dormant shot epoch (and we're not successful the dormant shot era). It's not a astonishment to larn that the Guardians person the lowest hardest-hit percent (balls deed astatine 95 mph oregon harder) successful the majors.

What to expect from here: The Guardians did bounce backmost from that 10-game losing streak with six wins successful their last 7 games earlier the break. They get the Athletics, Orioles, Royals, Rockies and Twins coming retired of the interruption -- 5 consecutive bid against teams presently with losing records -- truthful if they predominate that stretch, they'll beryllium close backmost successful the heavy of the wild-card race.

Still, it's hard to envision this light-hitting squad reaching the postseason, particularly since the bullpen hasn't been arsenic ascendant arsenic past play and the rotation is simply a mediocre 17th successful ERA. Indeed, unless the Guardians travel retired of the interruption scorching hot, you person to wonderment if the beforehand bureau volition marque a reliever oregon 2 disposable astatine the commercialized deadline. -- Schoenfield

Los Angeles Angels

Record: 47-49 | Projected last record: 76-86

Division rubric odds: 0.2% | Playoff odds: 2.4% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Biggest hurdle keeping them from contending: Simply put, talent. The Angels went into the All-Star interruption lone 2 games beneath .500 contempt a minus-62 tally differential, outperforming their Pythagorean grounds by 5 games. Depth of the 40-man roster is traditionally their biggest weakness, but it hasn't truly been tested. None of their starting pitchers person suffered injuries. Their wide roster has been comparatively healthy. In galore ways, they person had arsenic bully a luck arsenic 1 tin reasonably anticipation for done the season's archetypal three-plus months.

They've besides shown immoderate promise. Their pitching has taken a large measurement forward, with Jose Soriano and Reid Detmers successful peculiar showing flashes of success. And their lineup has shown immoderate existent potential, adjacent though Mike Trout -- with favorable underlying numbers -- has yet to truly get going.

What to expect from here: It's been 10 years since the Angels were adjacent applicable for the agelong tally of a season. That's the goal: to enactment successful it. And if they proceed to bash that implicit these adjacent fewer weeks, it volition beryllium truly hard to spot proprietor Arte Moreno, the aforesaid antheral who did not commercialized Shohei Ohtani successful the lead-up to his escaped agency, trigger thing resembling a teardrop down. The Angels person respective intriguing pending escaped agents, namely Tyler Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada. They mightiness add. They mightiness adhd and subtract simultaneously, swapping expiring contracts for controllable players who tin assistance successful the contiguous oregon close-to-immediate future. But they astir apt won't punt connected 2025 if they tin assistance it. -- Gonzalez

TIER 5: THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

Atlanta Braves

Record: 42-53 | Projected last record: 77-85

Division rubric odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 2.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%

How they got here: Injuries, a cardinal suspension and an 0-7 commencement person buried this team, which is successful information of missing the playoffs for the archetypal play since 2017, Brian Snitker's archetypal afloat twelvemonth arsenic manager. Everyone knew it would instrumentality clip for Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and Spencer Strider (elbow) to recover, and they debuted good into the season. But the Braves hardly counted connected losing their premier escaped cause signing successful Jurickson Profar to an 80-game suspension, and astir of the remainder of the rotation arsenic well, arsenic Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder), Chris Sale (ribs) and breakout Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) whitethorn not instrumentality this September. That mightiness beryllium connected the authorities of the team, and presently things are not looking good.

What to expect from here: GM Alex Anthopoulos is nary newcomer to the commercialized deadline scene, and if the nine cannot get person than its existent 9.5 games distant from an NL wild-card spot successful 2 weeks, helium whitethorn person nary prime but to commercialized veterans. Who goes? Perhaps Marcell Ozuna, his slugging percent down from .546 to .396, is first. Embattled person Raisel Iglesias, with his bloated 4.42 ERA, would look an evident choice. Rejuvenated Sean Murphy is simply a anticipation with rookie Drake Baldwin emerging. Even the sputtering Michael Harris II, past among 158 qualifiers with a .551 OPS, could usage a caller start. Regardless of who moves on, this is acold from what Braves fans expected successful March, but don't beryllium amazed if the franchise keeps capable endowment to contend again successful 2026. -- Karabell

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 43-52 | Projected last record: 73-89

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.5% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Orioles stumbled retired of the gate, with a 12-18 grounds astatine the extremity of April, including losses of 24-2 and 15-3. Then the play truly fell isolated with a 3-16 agelong successful May -- against a comparatively brushed portion of the schedule. Manager Brandon Hyde got the ax and fans rightly pounced connected GM Mike Elias and caller proprietor David Rubenstein for failing to code the rotation successful the offseason with idiosyncratic different than 41-year-old Charlie Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano.

Still, if the discourtesy had lived up to preseason expectations, the Orioles mightiness beryllium successful the playoff race. Instead, the discourtesy has declined from 1 of the champion successful the majors (4.85 runs per game) to beneath mean (4.14 runs per game). They've mislaid astir 50 points of OPS contempt moving successful the left-field obstruction astatine Camden Yards by varying distances of 9 to 20 feet. Yes, the rotation is the large culprit here, ranking adjacent to past successful ERA, but it's been a teamwide collapse.

What to expect from here: With up to 12 imaginable escaped agents, the Orioles are apt to beryllium the busiest squad astatine the commercialized deadline. Some of the cardinal players who could beryllium traded see Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Laureano, Zach Eflin and adjacent Morton, who has pitched amended aft a horrid commencement (2.76 ERA implicit his past 8 starts). O'Hearn volition person a batch of interest, but the different large sanction that teams whitethorn beryllium asking astir is person Felix Bautista. He's backmost from Tommy John country throwing gas, has a debased wage ($1 million) and is nether squad power done 2027. That means the Orioles are apt to support him, but fixed the database of contenders looking for late-game bullpen help, Bautista could bring backmost a large return. -- Schoenfield

Miami Marlins

Record: 44-51 | Projected last record: 72-90

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.2% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: Not overmuch successful South Florida has gone quite according to plan. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins' expected ace and premium midseason commercialized chip, ranks past among pitchers with minus-1.6 WAR. Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby haven't progressed arsenic smoothly arsenic hoped. The rotation has struggled to consistently find options for the No. 4 and 5 slots, and the Marlins' 5.02 first-half ERA was 3rd worst successful baseball. But, conscionable arsenic unexpected, the discourtesy has shown a spark implicit the past month. Since June 9, lone 8 teams scored much runs, led by All-Star Kyle Stowers (.316/.404/.663 rates and 9 location runs) and with coagulated accumulation from Otto Lopez and rookie Agustin Ramirez.

What to expect from here: With the youngest roster successful baseball, the Marlins volition proceed to diagnostic their young stars. In summation to the names above, Eury Perez is rapidly recapturing his pre-Tommy John country buzz arsenic 1 of the game's astir promising starters. Alcantara's commercialized worth has plummeted, but he'll inactive astir apt beryllium moved for prospects, perchance on with Anthony Bender, Edward Cabrera oregon Jesus Sanchez. -- Cockcroft

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 39-58 | Projected last record: 68-94

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: It's astir similar adding small to an discourtesy that had an 87 OPS+ (tied for 27th) successful 2024 was a atrocious idea. This year, they're astatine 79, successful a three-way necktie for past with the White Sox and Rockies. Consider that win-loss method utilizing the median tally full of 4 we cited successful the Kansas City introduction above, and reverse the standards to look astatine tally prevention. The Pirates' pitching and defence went 50-35-12 (.577) by that method, ranking 10th wide and sixth successful the NL. That's playoff-level tally prevention. The sputtering discourtesy renders that occurrence irrelevant.

What to expect from here: Same old, aforesaid aged for the Pirates. They'll offload veterans astatine the deadline and play retired the string, leaving their fans wondering what exactly, if anything, volition ever alteration with this franchise. That assumes, of course, that rumblings astir dangling Paul Skenes successful a imaginable commercialized don't resurface. If they bash and, worse, specified a commercialized comes to pass, the Pirates mightiness not person immoderate fans left. That aside, Bucs fans astatine slightest get Skenes each fewer days and get to ticker Oneil Cruz tally fast, propulsion hard and deed the shot far, each portion hitting astir .210. -- Doolittle

Athletics

Record: 41-57 | Projected last record: 67-95

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: This dysfunctional franchise mislaid 93 games past season, its last thrust successful Oakland, truthful possibly the connection "here" has peculiar meaning successful this case, referring to the new, impermanent (for 3 years?) location successful West Sacramento. The Athletics -- don't telephone them Sacramento! -- are 2nd worst successful MLB successful tally differential astatine minus-134, truthful they merit their last-place designation, though things weren't truthful atrocious aboriginal on. The Athletics were 20-16 a week into May earlier unsmooth pitching spiraled them into losing 20 of 21 games. Not everything is bad. SS Jacob Wilson and 1B Nick Kurtz are among the starring contenders for AL Rookie of the Year honors, two-time All-Star OF Brent Rooker is connected his mode to a 3rd consecutive 30-home tally season, and RHP person Mason Miller is backmost connected way aft a unsmooth April. The aboriginal on the field looks comparatively promising.

What to expect from here: RHP Luis Severino, signed to a multiyear declaration successful December, truly does not bask pitching successful Sacramento (6.68 ERA) and surely has nary contented telling everyone astir it. His coagulated roadworthy numbers (3.04 ERA) should pull commercialized interest, possibly backmost to 1 of his erstwhile New York-based clubs. It would beryllium astonishing if the Athletics parted with Miller. The Athletics are eminently watchable erstwhile they hit, though they stay beneath mean successful scoring runs. The pitching is the occupation (5.20 ERA), and determination is small assistance connected the contiguous horizon, truthful expect myriad high-scoring contests this summer, whether successful Sacramento oregon elsewhere. -- Karabell

Washington Nationals

Record: 38-58 | Projected last record: 65-97

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: The Nationals' archetypal fractional was not wholly without positives, arsenic James Wood (4.4) and MacKenzie Gore (3.6) person been top-10 performers successful presumption of WAR connected their respective sides of the ball, but connected the full the Nats were plagued by mediocre process, pathetic 'pen show and puzzling quality conferences. A 7-20 agelong betwixt June 7 and July 6 culminated successful the firings of wide manager Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, 7 days up of the squad possessing the No. 1 prime successful the MLB draft. The team's unexpected enactment of Eli Willits was regarded arsenic typical of the organization's unclear direction.

What to expect from here: Continued absorption connected subordinate improvement nether Miguel Cairo, an interim manager for the 2nd clip successful 4 seasons. The squad tin and should determination impending escaped agents Kyle Finnegan, Michael Soroka and Amed Rosario, and it should purpose to instrumentality different look astatine 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell III, a .298/.404/.488 hitter since his mid-June demotion backmost to Triple-A Rochester. -- Cockcroft

Chicago White Sox

Record: 32-65 | Projected last record: 55-107

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

How they got here: If you similar rookies making their MLB debuts, past the 2025 White Sox are for you. It's brought vigor to what was a funeral-like ambiance conscionable a play agone erstwhile the squad mislaid a grounds 121 games. But with the vigor of debuting 11 players comes immoderate increasing pains. That's to beryllium expected and hasn't dampened the cognition wrong the clubhouse.

Team occurrence has been hard to find but idiosyncratic moments inactive exist, opening with Shane Smith, a Rule 5 prime this year, making the All-Star team. Then determination is flamethrower Grant Taylor, who some opened a crippled and closed 1 successful the aforesaid bid against the Blue Jays. And their latest debut, shortstop Colson Montgomery, was banished to the team's outpouring analyzable earlier this play lone to find his mode to the majors much recently. There are good storylines with the White Sox for the archetypal clip successful a fewer years -- conscionable not galore wins.

What to expect from here: Growth. And possibly a fewer much wins arsenic those rookies get much comfortable. The squad volition besides beryllium progressive aboriginal this period with newcomer Adrian Houser opening eyes astir the league. The biggest question surrounds outfielder Luis Robert Jr., who hasn't deed a lick this season. Will a squad instrumentality a accidental successful trading for him? Will GM Chris Getz clasp retired for a decent imaginable oregon conscionable get Robert disconnected the books -- and disconnected the squad -- arsenic the White Sox's makeover continues? -- Rogers

TIER 6: ROCK BOTTOM

Colorado Rockies

Record: 22-74 | Projected last record: 41-121

Division rubric odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%

Where it each went wrong: Everywhere. It goes each the mode backmost to the beginning, with the circumstances of playing shot astatine mile-high altitude, and encompasses the franchise's full history, which is marked by an insular attack that has sapped innovation for a squad that desperately needs it. But let's support the absorption connected this year. The Rockies went into the All-Star interruption with a large league-high 5.56 ERA, a 27th-ranked .668 OPS and minus-19 outs supra average, 3rd worst successful the sport. In different words, they person been dreadful connected the mound, successful the batter's container and connected defense. It truly is that simple.

What to expect from here: The question everyone seems to person astir the Rockies is whether they volition really marque drastic changes. The archetypal hints volition travel earlier the extremity of the month, erstwhile we find retired if they diverge from anterior strategy and commercialized distant cardinal seasoned players -- astir notably German Marquez and Ryan McMahon -- up of the commercialized deadline. Perhaps astatine immoderate constituent thereafter, we'll find retired if proprietor Dick Monfort yet opts for a caller absorption successful shot operations. Bill Schmidt is successful his 4th twelvemonth arsenic wide manager and, barring a miracle, volition oversee his 3rd consecutive 100-plus-loss season. He has been with the enactment since 1999. -- Gonzalez