Germany's Friedrich Merz is ready for foreign policy challenges

"The whole world is watching Germany these days. We have a task — in the European Union, and in the world — that goes far beyond the borders of our own country and the well-being of our own people."

Those were the words of conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU)  leader Friedrich Merz in the German Bundestag as he sought to justify taking on massive new debts — a motion that was then approved.

Merz believes the additional funds will be essential for dealing with the security and foreign policy challenges the government will face.

Here is an overview of the most significant challenges:

Transatlantic relations

For ten years, Friedrich Merz was Chairman of the Atlantik-Brücke — a non-partisan organization for the cultivation of American-German relations.

However, his belief in a close German-American partnership has been badly shaken ever since Donald Trump entered his second term of office. "I am shocked by Donald Trump," Merz said after Trump blamed Ukraine for the war. He said he was appalled by Trump's and  Vice President JD Vance's public humiliation of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at the White House.

Germany was already in bad standing with Trump while Angela Merkel was Chancellor — not least because of her open refugee policy, which Trump abhors. Although Merz has repeatedly distanced himself politically from Merkel, it is likely that a personal meeting between him and Trump would be difficult.

Ukraine

The likely next German chancellor is already pushing for an additional support package for Ukraine — worth at least €3 billion euros ($3.26 bn). As Germany's parliament has already agreed to relax the country's "debt brake," that should not be a problem to allocate. However, if US aid was lacking and Europe needed to offset the loss, Germany might face considerably larger sums.

Another issue: delivering long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Merz supports the idea, while the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) always rejected it under the leadership of incumbent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It will be interesting to see how the SPD will respond to the controversial issue in its likely future role as junior coalition partner.

Defense cooperation

Merz does not know whether Trump's America will feel bound by NATO's obligation to provide assistance. That is why, on the eve of Germany's federal election, Merz said it was his "absolute priority" for Europeans to "truly achieve independence from the US" — as quickly as possible.

Indeed, he is aiming for close cooperation on defense policy between European countries. He wants to talk with nuclear powers France and the UK about nuclear protection for Germany and Europe.

European Union

Merz has accused the current government under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz of neglecting European cooperation. In particular, he feels that Germany's relationships with its closest partners — France and Poland — have suffered.

Merz wants to change that, but it won't be easy. French President Emmanuel Macron is struggling domestically. After many years under the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice party PiS government, Poland once again has a pro-European leadership with former EU Council President Donald Tusk leading the country. However, Germany currently does not have a close relationship with Paris or Warsaw.

And in other EU countries EU sceptics and right-wing populists are on the rise.

Trade policy

Trump's threats of import tariffs on European goods are seen as imminent. Europe cannot predict what will happen. What is certain is that transatlantic trade is becoming more difficult. And Germany, as an exporting nation, is being hit particularly hard, especially since the German economy has been in recession for the past two years.

The EU is responsible for transatlantic trade: Germany cannot act alone. However, it should press Brussels to ensure that the trade dispute does not escalate into a trade war — one in which everyone would lose.

China

As a way response to the trade conflict with the US, some politicians in Berlin and Brussels are pushing for strengthening business ties with China again. However, the days when German exporters were doing well in China seem to be a thing of the past. German cars, once export hits in China, are now gathering dust there.

China is producing cheap electric cars and selling them successfully in the EU. In response: the EU is trying to protect its market against Chinese electric cars. As an export-oriented country, Germany is keen to make sure that market restrictions on trade with China do not get out of hand.

Friedrich Merz has positioned himself as a China critic in the past, finding fault with Chancellors Olaf Scholz and previously Angela Merkel for not taking a strong stance towards Beijing.

Middle East conflict

With respect to the war in the Middle East, the German government is in a particularly difficult position: Israel's security is a special concern for every German government. However, German politicians have repeatedly criticized Israel's crackdown on Hamas in the Gaza Strip as disproportionate.

The German government is also caught in a dilemma due to the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on suspicion of war crimes in the Gaza Strip. Germany supports the ICC and would be urged to arrest Netanyahu should he visit Germany.

Friedrich Merz has affirmed, however, that would not happen while he is German Chancellor.

This article was originally written in German.

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