3 months ago
13
Goldman Sachs
said Kamala Harris' win will be good for the economic growth of the US in the coming two years while Trump's sweep with hurt the economic output next year. Under a Republican sweep, or even with a divided government led by Donald Trump, economic output would take a hit next year, mostly from increased tariffs on imports and tighter immigration policies, Goldman said in a note.
There will be more job growth under a Democrat government than under the Republicans, the report said.
"We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026."
"If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026."
Under Harris, job growth would be 10,000 a month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government, and 30,000 higher than with a Republican sweep, Goldman estimates.
A Trump win would likely led to increased tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico and the European Union that would raise core inflation, Goldman says.
Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: Who's leading
A new CNN poll found that the Democratic presidential nominee currently leads her Republican rival in four battleground states, taking Wisconsin (50 per cent to 44 per cent) and Michigan (48 per cent to 43 per cent).
In Georgia and Nevada, the vice president is said to lead by just one point – 48 per cent to 47 per cent in each. The pair are tied at 47 per cent in Pennsylvania, while Trump leads in Arizona 49 per cent to 44 per cent, as per the survey.
