Greene to join exclusive club? Luzardo turns it around? Don't be surprised

Each week successful MLB is its ain communicative -- afloat of surprises, some affirmative and antagonistic -- and phantasy managers indispensable determine what to judge and what not to judge moving forward. Perhaps we tin help. If immoderate of these thoughts travel existent ... don't beryllium surprised!

Detroit Tigers OF Riley Greene emerged arsenic a coagulated phantasy enactment successful 2024, hitting 24 location runs and drafting 64 walks implicit a career-high 137 games and 583 PA. He was a repetition All-Star this season, earning much announcement arsenic the Tigers proceed to bask their champion run successful much than a decade. However, Greene whitethorn not extremity up much invaluable successful ESPN modular points leagues this play implicit last, adjacent arsenic helium remains connected gait for 40 location runs, due to the fact that of his astronomical 32.3% strikeout rate.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Greene becomes conscionable the eighth subordinate of the 40-HR/200-K club

Greene is selling retired for power, which is good if it doesn't interaction the large picture. In his case, with a plummeting locomotion complaint (dropping from 11% successful 2024 to 6.5% this year), that large representation whitethorn good beryllium getting hurt. Suddenly, the Tigers person mislaid 9 of 10 games to gaffe from the apical spot successful the league. The squad is sputtering. It isn't each Greene's fault, but helium is hitting lone .182 successful July with 3 walks and 31 strikeouts successful 66 AB. Fantasy managers are dilatory dropping him, arsenic his phantasy worth falls abbreviated of matching the hype.

Greene isn't unsocial successful adjusting his sheet strategy this season. Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll is nearing a vocation precocious successful location runs, portion striking retired and chasing atrocious pitches acold more, and walking less. Carroll's worth is down from 2023. Greene's worth is astir the aforesaid -- astatine slightest truthful acold -- but his illustration bears watching, particularly for phantasy managers reasoning of trading for him arsenic if helium is simply a top points league option. Despite his 25 location runs (tied for eighth successful MLB), Greene is not among the top 20 outfielders oregon apical 75 hitters successful this scoring format. Blame the whiffs. Nobody has more.

There is immoderate past here, arsenic Greene paces for 40 location runs and a league-leading 212 strikeouts. Only 7 players person reached 40/200 successful the aforesaid season, with Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber getting determination twice. New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge deed 52 location runs and whiffed 208 times successful 2017. Judge, of course, was truthful invaluable successful phantasy that year, arsenic helium deed .284 and won AL Rookie of the Year honors. He was astir the league's MVP, too. Judge is an anomaly, though. The composite batting mean for the 8 MLB seasons successful which a hitter reached 40 location runs and 200 strikeouts is lone .232.

The interest present is what happens erstwhile Greene's lofty BABIP continues to normalize. Today, it sits astatine .356, 12th highest among qualified hitters, but it is falling. Greene is hitting .276 overall, but his expected batting mean is .252, and July has been rough. Greene's wide hard-hit complaint and exit velocity numbers are fine, but not great. Hey, we each emotion location runs, and Greene is hitting them for an breathtaking team, but determination are reasons to beryllium cautious with expectations successful fantasy, too.

Don't beryllium surprised... if dropping Phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo is simply a mistake

Speaking of BABIP, what a weird play for Luzardo. The strangeness continued connected Wednesday, arsenic the erstwhile Marlin breezed done 4 innings astatine location against the Boston Red Sox, past sputtered successful the 5th inning. He walked 4 batters successful the inning, including 2 with the bases loaded, earlier ceding a expansive slam to lefty-killer Romy Gonzalez. Luzardo should person been lifted earlier the location tally -- 4 walks, and helium is inactive successful there? -- but still, the wide enactment of six earned runs and 5 walks (but 7 strikeouts and lone 2 hits) is abnormal. Luzardo's ERA is present astatine a season-high 4.58.

Luzardo's BABIP against is .365, which is truthful unusually precocious (second spot is Logan Webb astatine .335) that we would foretell acold amended numbers moving forward. Luzardo besides ranks 12th successful strikeout percentage. Things don't adhd up here. Sure, Luzardo permitted 12 earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers connected the past time of May and 8 much runs successful his adjacent outing against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies suspected helium was tipping pitches -- and that whitethorn inactive beryllium the case, arsenic helium struggles with men connected basal (.834 OPS) and with runners successful scoring presumption (.916).

Remove the 2 atrocious outings, though, and Luzardo's play ERA is lone 3.15. Prior to Wednesday night, that ERA was 2.78. We cannot disregard those Luzardo positives, including his strikeout rate. He needs to hole immoderate is incorrect erstwhile men are connected base, and a spot much luck would beryllium nice. The lone starting pitcher to decorativeness with a BABIP higher than .340 since 2021 is RHP Kevin Gausman (.363) successful 2022. Gausman inactive finished that play with fantabulous numbers. We shall spot if Luzardo tin crook things around.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Mickey Moniak leads the Colorado Rockies successful phantasy points this season

Moniak, the journeyman outfielder champion known for being the comparative bust of a archetypal wide prime by the Phillies successful the 2016 draft, seems to similar playing shot successful Denver. He's not alone, of course, but Moniak, released by the Los Angeles Angels connected March 25 and signed by the Rockies 2 days later, is phantasy applicable -- finally! Moniak enters Thursday hitting .275 with a career-high 15 location runs, posting an .895 OPS against right-handed pitching. (That OPS is 1.013 successful the precocious altitude of Coors Field.) So acold successful July, helium is hitting .423/.464/.769. He slugged .760 successful June. Don't number connected Moniak versus lefties oregon connected the road, but this profile, successful this location ballpark, is rather valuable.

The Rockies are not a bully shot team, and finishing with the astir phantasy points connected the nine mightiness not look similar overmuch of an accomplishment, but Moniak (rostered successful a specified 5.9% of ESPN modular leagues) enters Thursday averaging 2.9 phantasy points per crippled implicit the past 30 days. C/OF Hunter Goodman, their lone All-Star and lone hitter rostered successful much than 20% of leagues (how is that possible?), remains phantasy applicable and presently leads the squad successful phantasy points. However, catchers mostly tyre implicit the last months. Can Goodman clasp disconnected the charging Moniak? So overmuch to ticker successful Denver this summer!

Don't beryllium surprised... if 3 Brewers decorativeness among the apical 25 outfielders successful phantasy points

You should already cognize astir precocious Brewers sophomore OF Jackson Chourio and longtime seasoned and erstwhile NL MVP Christian Yelich. Chourio, 21, boasts a little OPS than successful his rookie season, arsenic helium chases much pitches and has seen his locomotion complaint plummet to a disturbing 4.2%. But acknowledgment to his quality to pummel lefties, helium remains connected gait for much than 25 location runs and 25 steals. He is simply a top-10 phantasy points outfielder, a phantasy gathering block.

Yelich, 33, has hardly played successful the outfield this play and should suffer that eligibility for 2026, but helium has played astir each crippled and, similar Chourio, whitethorn get to 25 homers and 25 steals. He's hitting a ton of crushed balls (not good) and is simply a nonfactor versus lefties (we person seen this before), but helium is among the apical 25 outfielders. We can't kick astir Yelich this season.

Can you sanction the 3rd outfielder? He is disposable successful 73.5% of leagues! It is the astonishing Sal Frelick. The 25-year-old should instrumentality from his hamstring wounded this weekend. Most phantasy managers astir apt person small consciousness of however invaluable helium has been this season. Frelick is presently the No. 30 outfielder successful ESPN points formats, contempt offering small power.

Milwaukee's main leadoff enactment versus right-handers is hitting .294, with 1 of the apical interaction rates and 1 of the lowest strikeout rates. Frelick, similar Chourio and Yelich, whitethorn besides bargain 25 bases. Avoiding strikeouts is simply a large woody successful points leagues. Frelick has astir arsenic galore phantasy points arsenic Riley Greene, and much than Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and many, galore more. Go get him!