Has Hezbollah re-established deterrence with Israel?

The intensity of cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israel has lessened after a spectacular exchange of attacks on August 25.

But after an eventful week in Israel, where news of six executed Israeli captives led to massive protests against Netanyahu’s government, there is a question among analysts over whether the prime minister could intensify on other fronts as a distraction.

“We’re going to exact a heavy price from Hamas; I’m not going to tell you what the price is going to be and what we’re going to do; there’s going to be an element of surprise here,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a media conference on Monday.

But other than demanding a permanent Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor bordering Egypt’s Sinai, thereby ensuring that Gaza ceasefire negotiations remain paralysed, Netanyahu has given little indication of what direction he will take.

What also remains to be seen is whether Hezbollah has drawn a line in the sand and demonstrated enough deterrent power to discourage Israel from looking towards it as a likely distraction.

The buildup

Hezbollah began intensifying attacks on Israel on October 8, a day after Israel launched what it said was a retaliatory war on Gaza following a Hamas-led attack on Israel during which 1,139 people were killed and some 240 taken captive.

Tensions built up, reaching a boiling point.

On July 31, Israel struck a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Five people were killed – two children, two women, and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.

Israel said Shukr was responsible for an attack on Majdal Shams in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights that killed 12 children. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack.

Shukr was the most high profile, but not the first, senior Hezbollah commander Israel assassinated in Lebanon.

On January 8, Israel killed Wissam al-Tawil, a commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in Majdal Selem, just six days after it killed Saleh al-Arouri, a senior official in Hamas’s Qassam Brigades, in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

After Shukr’s assassination, cross-border attacks intensified as Hezbollah promised to avenge their fallen comrade.

In the early morning of August 25, Israel launched what it said was a preemptive attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, using 100 jets to hit thousands of Hezbollah launch sites.

At least 15 Lebanese towns were hit in the widest Israeli attack on Hezbollah since October 8.

Hezbollah launched its own attack the same morning, with Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah saying 340 rockets were fired into Israel, targeting 11 military and intelligence locations and hitting the Glilot military base, less than a mile (1.6km) from Tel Aviv.

A young woman stands near a home damaged by a direct hit from Hezbollah, which launched hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel in what it said was a response to the assassination of a senior commander in Beirut last month, in northern Israel, on August 25, 2024 [Ammar Awad/Reuters]

Hezbollah released a statement that this “first phase” of retaliation was successfully completed.

Netanyahu rejected Nasrallah’s claim, saying Glilot was not hit.

Renewed deterrence?

Hezbollah has repeatedly said its fight with Israel is connected to Gaza and that it will stop once a ceasefire is achieved.

Some, however, have treated it as a separate conflict, with some Western diplomats reportedly working for months to avoid a wider war in Lebanon.

The latest attack aimed to re-establish a level of deterrence to sway Israel from attacking top Hezbollah leaders, particularly in cities like Beirut, analysts said.

“Hezbollah has indeed re-established a significant level of deterrence following its massive retaliation campaign to avenge Fuad Shukr’s assassination,” Imad Salamey, a political analyst at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.

“This refutes Israel’s claims of having substantially reduced Hezbollah’s capabilities and clearly shows that Hezbollah maintains firm command and control despite Israel’s 10-month-long, very expensive military campaign aimed at weakening the party,” Salamey added.

Regardless of the results of Sunday’s exchange, analysts told Al Jazeera, a certain steadiness has returned to a conflict that had threatened to spiral out of control and draw in players from the region and beyond.

Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah told each other that neither wants further escalation. Analysts also seem to believe the tension has eased, at least temporarily.

“For Lebanon, the party’s [Hezbollah] attack has returned things to what they were before the assassination of Fuad Shukr,” Qassem Kassir, a political analyst believed to be close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

“I view [this latest exchange] mostly as a US-orchestrated attempt at turning [the page] and preventing escalation,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph’s University in Beirut, said.

“Israel will probably continue to strike certain targets in Lebanon but I doubt that in the near future they will go after a major figure like Fuad Shukr.”

Period of calm

The prospect of an expanded war in Lebanon seemed to have been tabled right after August 25, but given the internal turbulence in Israel, it remains to be seen if the conflict will flare up again.

An undated handout photo released by the Hezbollah press office on July 31, 2024, shows top commander Fuad Shukr at an undisclosed location [File: Hezbollah Military Media Office/AFP]

Israel has killed more than 560 people in Lebanon since October 8, more than 130 of them civilians. On the Israeli side, about 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have died due to attacks coming from Lebanon.

Tens of thousands are displaced on either side of the border, while the Israelis have reportedly tried to establish a buffer zone in south Lebanon by attempting to make the land uninhabitable and impossible to cultivate.

While many have expressed fatigue over the continuing conflict, its end is still not quite in sight.

“Any miscalculation [from Israel] could trigger an extremely expensive and protracted military retaliation campaign, which is proving very costly for Israel on multiple levels, both militarily and politically,” Salamey said.

“The demonstrated resilience and readiness of Hezbollah mean that Israel must weigh the risks more cautiously before engaging in further escalations.”

Many in Lebanon, Israel and beyond who fear a wider war might be breathing a temporary sigh of relief, but the storm has yet to completely pass.

“Escalation is still possible,” Kassir said. “We are in a period of calm, but it is not guaranteed.”