How China suppors Russia's war

China has become the main supplier of microelectronics and machine tools for Russian weapons. NATO countries are worried that they may be used on targets well beyond Ukraine.

In late 2023, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) analyzed that, in the worst-case scenario, NATO would have only five more years to ensure that it has the potential to deter a possible Russian attack on a NATO country. 

"Putin needs the war to continue because he has conjured up so many specters that may be unable to accept peace," the study's author, Christian Mölling, head of the DGAP's Center for Security and Defense told DW.

Russia and NATO

Forcifying defense capabilities of NATO countries is, therefore, directly linked to increasing the military support 50 or so nations are currently providing to Ukraine under the leadership of the US.

In a study published in April, the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concluded that in the war against Ukraine, "The ongoing large-scale military reforms indicate Russia may be preparing for a confrontation with NATO within the next two decades, including a large-scale conventional war." 

The Washington-based Institute, which according to US media reports is close to the US arms industry, has analyzed the foreign supply of goods to the Russian arms industry and the circumvention of Western sanctions since the start of Russia's major invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Their second report in April was entitled: "Back in Stock? The State of Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of the War."

Russian electronics imports bypass Western sanctions

For this study, the researchers analyzed publicly available data on the trade of goods to Russia — especially in relation to microelectronics for missiles and glide bombs for the war in Ukraine. The CSIS also looked at trade in CNC machines, which are computer-controlled instruments used for metal processing.

These are needed for the construction of artillery shells and other ammunition. "Russia's defense industry has found ways to get what it needs to ramp up arms production," reads the CSIS analysis. "The Kremlin has continued to rely on foreign components imported via a complicated network of intermediaries. This has proved critical to sustaining the Russian military in Ukraine."

According to the report, China has been Russia's most important supplier since summer 2023: "Nearly all of the top exporters of microelectronics are based in China and Hong Kong with one entity based in Turkey."

A surge in Chinese imports

There was a sudden influx in shipments of high-priority items from China to Russia in March 2023, when President Xi Jinping visited Russia. "Russian imports of CNC machines — which are used to provide precise parts for various weapons systems from ammunition to aircraft — from Chinese companies also experienced a sharp increase in the months following the Xi-Putin March 2023 meeting," writes the CSIS.

In several charts, the Institute shows that companies from China and Hong Kong supplied Russia with electronics between 200,000 and 300,000 times a month between March and July 2023.

A particularly salient point is the comparison of drone deliveries: "Russia received at least $14,5 million [€13.2 mio] in direct drone shipments from Chinese trading companies, while Ukraine received only around 200.000 dollars worth of Chinese-made drones and components, most came from European intermediaries," it says in the CSIS report.

Some of the companies from China and Hong Kong that are supplying Russia are also said to be doing business with Ukraine.

This puts the EU and the US in a tricky position, as they are imposing sanctions on companies that supply Russia's arms industry. Trade restrictions against these companies in Asia could also end up affecting Ukraine as well.

Ultimately, the US researchers conclude that "Russia's industrial sector has become fully dependent on China for machine tools, and components critical to arms manufacturing."

This is consistent with investigations in Ukraine. Russian missiles, glide bombs, and drones have been intercepted by the Ukrainian air defense system and dismantled into their individual parts.

Since last year, the Ukrainian army has primarily identified Chinese-made electronics in Russian weapons, said Ukrainian sanctions expert Vladyslav Vlasiuk from the Ukrainian presidential administration in an interview with DW. In the first year of the war, Ukraine was able to recover numerous Western high-tech products from Russian weapons — many of them from Europe and especially from Germany.

Russian weapons contain less high-tech

Unlike before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is producing more and more ammunition and weapons without Western high-tech components. This has primarily included glide bombs and Shahed drones originating in Iran. Since the beginning of 2024, Russia's air force has been using these to increasingly overcome the air defenses of Ukraine, which itself is short on Western missiles.

At the moment, it is a battle between cheaply manufactured artillery shells and glide bombs with Chinese electronics against highly sophisticated Western anti-aircraft missiles, of which Ukraine has far too few.

"If tomorrow all of the imports of microelectronics to Russia stop, they will not be able to produce the weapons," believes Vlasiuk.

Russia has already successfully adapted its high-tech arms industry to use simpler components that are mainly being sourced from China.

"In terms of key components and electronics the Kremlin needs for its war machine," writes the Washington think tank CSIS in its analysis, "it has moved away from tailored high-end military components toward dual-use or even purely civilian technologies." In other words, goods that are still not covered by Western arms sanctions.

This article was originally written in German.

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.