How the Houthis blockade of the Red Sea could affect the global economy

11 hours ago 2

NPR's A Martínez asks former U.S. deputy national security adviser Jon Finer what the blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels means for the global economy.

Transcript

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

Let's discuss the situation in the Middle East with Jon Finer. He was deputy national security adviser in the Biden administration. Jon, you were in the government the last time the Houthis attacked shipping in the Red Sea. How challenging was it to stop them?

JON FINER: This is an extremely difficult problem, in large part because the Houthis, in this balance of which side feels more pain when two sides decide to start to fight each other, seems very willing to accept being bombed to try to achieve their objectives. So we attacked the Houthis when they went after commercial shipping lanes, when they attacked Israel in the aftermath of October 7. And to be honest, while we felt those attacks were well deserved, given their attacks on the global economy, they were never particularly effective in deterring the Houthis from going after shipping lanes. And that is a problem, given that the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed. The only other major avenue for getting energy products out of the Middle East is through the Bab el-Mandeb, which is what the Houthis are now saying they're going to attack if Saudi Arabia tries to export its products.

MARTÍNEZ: Considering the Houthis have a long-running dispute with Saudi Arabia, does that make their latest attacks in the Red Sea a separate matter, a different matter from the U.S. war with Iran?

FINER: Well, it's hard to consider it totally unrelated. The Houthis are very much an Iranian proxy. Iran provided them resources and technology to build up their military capabilities. But it's also clear that compared to other Iranian proxies, like Hamas and like Hezbollah, they have less ability to control the Houthis. And so the Houthis do make their own decisions based on local factors - in this case, rising tensions with Saudi Arabia. So I would consider it related but not totally under the control of any side.

MARTÍNEZ: So less ability to control Iran with the Houthis, but how much control does it have? Does it have any?

FINER: The way I would describe it is they have influence. They provided the Houthis with resources. They maintain a close relationship, but they cannot turn them on and off like a light switch.

MARTÍNEZ: Now, I'm wondering, when it comes to military action anywhere in the world, how much does an administration factor in the cost of things, at least in your experience?

FINER: Well, in a normal time, when you're making a decision about going to war or escalating a conflict, as the administration currently seems to be contemplating, you would bring experts around the table to discuss all manner of implications of that decision, regional experts who would talk about the impact on regional stability in the Middle East, energy market experts to talk to you about how energy markets might be affected in the United States and in countries around the world. That does not seem to be the way this administration makes decisions.

There is a dearth of expertise involved in the process, and it does make you wonder when the president goes out and says, well, you know, nobody ever raised the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed or that energy markets would be impacted in this way, whether that's because those experts are not involved in the conversation. And one thing that does make me nervous, this administration does seem buffeted between criticism when they do a deal that the deal's terms aren't very good, and then energy market impacts when they escalate, because the energy markets are concerned about more war as we head into a Friday afternoon later today, when the markets'll be closed for a couple of days. That has been, in the past, a time when this administration has escalated militarily.

MARTÍNEZ: Let's turn now to the nuclear deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. What do you make of Trump's social media post, making the deal conditional on Saudi's normalizing relations with Israel?

FINER: Well, this is a classic way in which this administration goes about negotiating. They announce an agreement with Saudi Arabia that says nothing about the Abraham Accords or normalization of Saudi Arabia's relations with Israel, also says basically nothing about any safeguards that will be put on any transfer of U.S. technology on enrichment or other things to Saudi Arabia. That gets criticized by people who analyze the details more than the president seems to. When the president sees that criticism, he then just comes out and announces different terms from what has been announced previously by the administration and tries to kind of overcorrect the public record. It's quite clear that what the president has said was not necessarily a facet of the actual agreement that's been made. And so where this leaves us is this may never be implemented, or they may have to go back to the negotiating table.

MARTÍNEZ: Jon, The New York Times, citing unnamed Iraqi and Iranian officials, reports that Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraq's prime minister. So, Jon, do you think negotiators can make progress toward a ceasefire through back channels, even while Trump threatens to publicly escalate this war?

FINER: Look, I think, at some point, that is the way that this conflict is ultimately going to end. There are going to have to be go-betweens. The Pakistanis have played this role. The Qataris have played this role. Certainly the Iraqis maintain close relations with both Iran and the United States, who are interested parties who want this war to end and who ultimately will go back and forth and try to get the two sides to de-escalate. It does not surprise me at all that Iraq, which runs the risk of really being negatively affected if the war expands, wants this over and is trying to bring that about.

MARTÍNEZ: That is Jon Finer, former U.S. deputy national security adviser. He also co-hosts the podcast "The Long Game." Jon, thanks.

Thank you.

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