How Trump's high tariffs against Brazil could backfire

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The newly announced tariffs by the US government on Brazilian imports, as well as Washington's move to sanction Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes "for serious human rights abuse," has caused a strong reaction in Brazil.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has condemned American interference in the Brazilian legal system, calling it "unacceptable." The political motivation behind these measures undermines Brazil's sovereignty and threatens the relationship between the two countries, Lula said.

From August 6, the US will impose tariffs of 50% on Brazilian imports into America. Somewhat surprisingly, around 700 Brazilian products were exempted. But experts have said this still puts the average tariff on Brazilian goods at around 30%. The European Union and Japan are only paying 15% tariffs.

Brazil slapped with 50% tariffs — who's next?

The US government, under President Donald Trump, has justified its new global tariffs by blaming a bilateral trade imbalance. The Trump administration has also given the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro as an explanation for the punitive tariffs. Judge de Moraes is presiding over the trial of Bolsonaro, who is accused of masterminding a plot to stay in power despite his 2022 election defeat.

Tariffs on Brazil for 'ideological reasons'

The personal sanctions on de Moraes come under the US' Magnitsky Act, which allows the American government to sanction foreign government officials worldwide for human rights offenses. Among other things, de Moraes could see any assets he has in the US frozen. The US government had already prevented de Moraes and other Brazilian Supreme Court judges from entering the country.

"The Magnitsky Act was previously used against the US' enemies but it always used to have a basis in human rights," said Demetrio Magnoli, a sociologist and foreign affairs columnist in Brazil. "But by using it for the first time against a judge in a democracy, Trump is shattering the human rights foundations of this law."

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in front of a Brazilian flag.

As for the high tariffs, Magnoli told DW it's not unusual for Trump to use tariffs as a weapon in his trade war and deal-making. "But in the case of Brazil, he is using both tariffs and the Magnitsky Act for political and ideological reasons," the commentator noted. "A unique case worldwide and a direct attack on a democratic country and a US ally."

Judge de Moraes has been seen as a nuisance by American right wingers since he ordered social media platform, X (formerly Twitter) blocked for several weeks in late 2024. De Moraes demanded that user accounts that violated Brazilian law be removed, part of an attempt to crack down on anti-democratic, far-right voices.

Billionaire Elon Musk, the owner of X, tried to get around the court-ordered block and called for de Moraes to be impeached.

But de Moraes actually became a target for Trump earlier than that, because of Bolsonaro. In late 2022, the former president was accused of planning a coup against his successor, Lula, something that could carry a sentence of up to 40 years in prison. Bolsonaro and his co-defendants have disputed this charge, and Trump has described it as "a witch hunt."

Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro speaks to the press.

De Moraes has also investigated Bolsonaro for, among other things, manufacturing disinformation and has convicted Bolsonaro's supporters for storming the government district in Brasilia in January 2023. As a result, the judge has been celebrated as a defender of democracy in Brazil, particularly by those on the left.

But perhaps because of the parallels to Trump's own past — his supporters also stormed government buildings in January 2021, and Trump previously insisted the 2020 election was "stolen" from him — de Moraes' actions have been like a red rag to Brazil's bullish right wingers, and now also to Trump supporters.

Brazil caught in China-US geopolitical conflict

However, Guilherme Casaroes, a professor at the Sao Paulo School of Business Administration at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, sees a bright side. The fact that, contrary to his initial announcement two weeks ago, Trump is allowing numerous tariff exemptions means that Brazil did well in negotiations with the US, he said.

"But it also clearly shows that Trump's motivation is not so much commercial and more political," said Casaroes. "Especially because Brazil actually has a trade deficit with the US."

The expert believes there are three key factors influencing Trump's attack on Brazil. Firstly, the country's closer ties with China, which makes Brazil a battleground in the geopolitical conflict between the US and China.

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes

Secondly, this fight is ideological: Trump wants to be seen supporting his allies around the world. That includes Bolsonaro. And thirdly, the economic interests of US tech giants: "They don't want social media regulation," said Casaroes.

'Unacceptable imperialist aggression'

In Brazil, Trump's onslaught has triggered Brazilian nationalism, especially on social media.

That's fair, said sociologist and political commentator Celso Rocha de Barros. He described what he calls the "American intervention against the Brazilian Supreme Court" as "unacceptable imperialist aggression" and insisted that in the future, Brazil must "negotiate economic agreements without giving an inch on democratic and political issues."

Rocha de Barros believes de Moraes is actually looking stronger after this episode. Even Supreme Court justices who felt more favorably about Bolsonaro don't want to be giving anybody the impression that they support foreign intervention in their own court, he said.

But Demetrio Magnoli believes the US' attacks on de Moraes could actually find favor with parts of the Brazilian population. Many locals are unhappy with their Supreme Court, he pointed out.

This is partially because what some think are the judges' too-high salaries, but it's also because of the high penalties meted out to what Magnoli called "the useful idiots of the Bolsonaro camp," those who participated in the January 2023 rioting. Some Brazilians also believe de Moraes became too powerful during the trial against Bolsonaro.

In other ways, Trump's attacks actually offers the Brazilian president an opportunity. Lula is polling badly, but if he manages to convince the Brazilian parliament to help an economy badly hit by Trump's tariffs, he might become more popular again. And that would be the opposite of what the US leader was hoping for, Magnoli said.

This story was originally written in German.

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