Humbled in Syria, Putin Seeks Vindication in Ukraine

The downfall of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has humiliated his main backer, Russia, exposing the limits of the Kremlin’s military power and global influence.

Yet to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the loss of his closest Middle Eastern ally may only be a temporary setback in his quest for a much greater geopolitical prize: triumph in Ukraine.

Military and political analysts said winning the war in Ukraine has become an all-encompassing goal for Mr. Putin. That outcome, they said, would justify to the Russian leader the conflict’s tremendous human and economic losses, safeguard Russia’s statehood and global stature and compensate for strategic failures elsewhere, such as in Syria.

“Putin’s bet on the war in Ukraine is so high that a victory there would bring Russia a payout of historic proportions: It’s all or nothing,” wrote Aleksandr Baunov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a research group. “If he thinks the fate of the world is being decided in the Donbas, then the future of Syria will be decided there as well.”

In the short term, as Moscow maneuvers to keep its military bases in Syria, Mr. Putin could intensify his costly offensive in Ukraine to recover some prestige. Pro-war Russian commentators have called on Mr. Putin to do just that, while also demanding tougher peace conditions in Ukraine to avoid the kind of inconclusive cease-fire that ultimately led to Mr. al-Assad’s downfall.

Both scenarios would complicate the incoming Trump administration’s promise to swiftly end the fighting in Ukraine.