Hurricane Lowell holds Category 4 strength as Hawaii braces for a close call

Powerful Hurricane Lowell remained a Category 4 storm with winds of up to 150 mph on Saturday as Hawaii braced for potentially dangerous impacts from the system, which is expected to turn sharply northwards and pass close to the western islands early next week.The storm, currently more than 600 miles south of Hawaii, has fluctuated between Category 4 and Category 5 strength in recent days. Forecasters said some additional intensification was possible over the next day or so before Lowell begins to weaken, but it is expected to remain near Category 4 strength as it approaches the island chain.The greatest uncertainty is how close Lowell will come to Niihau and Kauai. The National Hurricane Center's current forecast puts the storm's centre about 150 miles west of Niihau and 190 miles west of Kauai on Tuesday morning.

However, forecasters said confidence in the exact track remains lower than normal.A shift of less than 100 miles eastwards could bring the major hurricane much closer to Hawaii, potentially producing more direct and severe impacts. Forecast models currently show outcomes ranging from a devastating landfall on Kauai or Oahu to a track more than 400 miles west of Niihau, which would bring relatively limited effects.

Even without a major shift in the track, dangerous conditions are expected. Rough seas, coastal flooding and strong rip currents could affect the islands from as early as this weekend, with the western islands facing the greatest risk.The National Weather Service warned that major coastal flooding is possible in Kauai, while significant coastal flooding could also affect Oahu. Lowell is expected to generate large waves and push additional water towards Hawaii's southern shores, while tides are also forecast to be near their highest levels of the month, increasing the potential for flooding.

Hawaii declares state of emergency

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency across the entire state on Thursday, allowing authorities to mobilise resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units.Six high-water vehicles are being deployed to Kauai, while Kauai County has begun clearing drainage systems and positioning equipment in areas vulnerable to flooding. At least two state parks on the island have also closed camping facilities ahead of the storm.State land and natural resources crews were due to notify campers on Friday that they must leave immediately, according to the county. Authorities have also urged residents to maintain 14 days' worth of supplies.“Our state is still recovering from Lala, and we are not waiting for another storm to get close before preparing,” Green said in a news release.Green warned that the state could face further tropical systems in the coming weeks, describing the current period as a serious storm season.“This is a serious storm season,” Green said at a news conference Friday, noting his state is likely to face additional threatening tropical systems in the coming weeks.“We’ve got multiple storms because of El Niño that are stacking up – we’re told that’s what the fall is going to be like,” the governor said.

Lowell's track remains uncertain

Lowell is forecast to turn sharply northwards this weekend after interacting with an area of low pressure high in the atmosphere north of Hawaii.

The interaction is expected to pull the hurricane north, but the timing and strength of that interaction will determine how close the storm comes to the islands.Forecasters expect their confidence in Lowell's path to improve once the hurricane completes the turn.The storm's trajectory has drawn comparisons with Hurricane Iniki, which struck Kauai in 1992 as a Category 4 hurricane and remains Hawaii's worst storm on record.“We know that the memory of Hurricane ʻIniki is close to the surface for many of our families right now, so let us stay vigilant and prepare with a steady hand,” Kauai County Mayor Derek S.K. Kawakami said in a statement.He urged residents to remain patient, take care on the roads and check on their neighbours.“We don’t need any unforeseen tragedies while everyone is preparing,” Kawakami said. “Also, use this time to prepare and talk story with your ʻohana tonight so everyone knows the plan.”On Oahu, officials have also urged residents to remain vigilant, although the current forecast suggests the island's capital and largest city faces less immediate risk.“We feel much better about where things stand for Oʻahu heading into this weekend, but we are going to stay vigilant until Lowell makes that turn and moves away from us,” Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said in a statement.

Third storm to threaten Hawaii in weeks

Lowell is the third tropical system to threaten Hawaii in roughly three weeks.

Hurricane Lala brought feet of rain to the Big Island in mid-August, triggering severe flooding and causing extensive damage in communities along the island's southern end.Tropical Storm Moke followed later in August. Although it brought rain to the Big Island, its weaker strength meant the impacts were considerably less severe.The succession of storms has raised concerns as El Niño strengthens activity across the Pacific hurricane season. For Hawaii, the immediate focus remains on Lowell and the uncertainty surrounding its eventual path.“We’re hopeful that it will miss us, but if it does what Iniki did in 1992 or even does anything close … we could see tragic consequences,” Green said.