Inside the shift in evaluating MLB draft catching prospects

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- It's the apical of the 11th inning of an aboriginal March shot crippled astatine North Carolina. With a runner connected archetypal and 2 outs, a Coastal Carolina batter laces a azygous done the close broadside of the infield. The Tar Heels' close fielder bobbles the ball, past slips. The runner barrels astir 3rd toward home, wherever catcher Luke Stevenson awaits.

The relay propulsion people takes Stevenson to the 3rd basal broadside of location plate, into the way of the runner diving headfirst. Stevenson slaps a tag betwixt his enarthrosis blades, shows the umpire the mitted shot and erupts into a fist pump. The crippled remains tied. In the bottommost fractional of the inning, UNC wins connected a sacrifice fly.

The Tar Heels went connected to assertion an ACC title, wherever Stevenson was named MVP. They hosted and won an NCAA tourney regional, roseate to No. 1 successful Division I, past fell astatine location to Arizona successful a ace determination and missed returning to the Men's College World Series for the 2nd consecutive year. Days later, Stevenson, a draft-eligible sophomore, reported to Phoenix for the MLB combine. Depending connected who you ask, Stevenson is the archetypal oregon second-best axenic catcher and a statement mock top-35 prime for the 2025 MLB draft, which begins July 13 (6 p.m. ET connected ESPN).

Stevenson and different catchers with MLB imaginable person agelong been evaluated connected however good they negociate pitchers, framework pitches and pb a team's defence -- including directing positioning and keeping runners from stealing and scoring. But MLB wide managers and subordinate unit accidental dual-threat backstops specified arsenic Seattle's Cal Raleigh, an AL MVP favorite, present fertile arsenic the modular bearers for players successful the pipeline to baseball's large leagues. The spread betwixt a catcher with All-Star imaginable and 1 who could clasp down the presumption astatine a replacement level is glaringly obvious.

What mightiness not beryllium truthful obvious, however, is conscionable however overmuch MLB's 2023 rules changes are present influencing however the presumption is being taught, played, coached and scouted astatine each levels of the crippled -- and conscionable how overmuch of a premium is being placed connected the violative abilities of catchers specified arsenic Stevenson oregon Coastal Carolina's Caden Bodine, different apt aboriginal draught pick.

From precocious schoolhouse and younker shot to assemblage and the insignificant leagues, a displacement has already begun. In cardinal ways, the worth of the presumption itself is being reframed -- and Stevenson is simply a fitting avatar for catchers joining the nonrecreational ranks astatine a clip erstwhile their livelihoods are successful flux, their occurrence astir apt dictated by their capableness to accommodate to this caller reality.

"I don't privation to accidental it's a dying position, [but] the barroom for a being a bully catcher offensively is truthful low," said 1 MLB manager of amateur scouting. "You could beryllium an mundane catcher if you deed .210 with 10 location runs. [But] if you deed .210 with 30 location runs and a Platinum Glove? You're a superstar."

Jim Koerner, USA Baseball's manager of subordinate development, said it's inactive imperative for catchers to wield "middle-infield hands" and a beardown limb to beryllium an MLB starter.

"[But] successful 5 years," helium said, "once they institute robo umps, I deliberation it's going to beryllium wholly an violative position."

AHEAD OF THE 2023 MLB season, astatine the behest of on-field advisor and erstwhile Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox president Theo Epstein, the league instituted a slew of regularisation changes intended to energize a purportedly staling sport. Baseball banned antiaircraft shifts, instituted a transportation clock, constricted mound disengagements to 2 per sheet quality and widened the bases from 15 inches to 18 inches -- each changes archetypal tested successful the insignificant leagues.

The dividends were immediate. In 2023, runners stole 3,503 bases and upped it to 3,617 past season, the astir successful 109 years and the 3rd astir successful immoderate MLB season. The mean crippled clip fell to 2 hours, 36 minutes successful 2024, the quickest successful 40 years. Attendance and tv engagement records were acceptable successful 2023 and breached successful 2024.

Just arsenic quickly, it became harder for catchers to halt runners from stealing. Catchers faced an summation of astir 12 and 14 much stolen basal attempts a play successful 2023 and 2024, respectively, than successful 2022. Exchange times and popular times accrued exponentially to compensate, arsenic did the velocity astatine which catchers propulsion connected bargain attempts. But runners are faster and -- owed to caller constricted disengagements rules for pitchers -- person to their would-be stolen bases than ever.

From 2016 to 2022, the lowest mean caught stealing percent for a azygous play among qualified catchers was 22.28% successful 2021. In 2023 it was 17.43% and, past season, it was 18.78%. Through July 7, MLB runners person stolen 1,947 bases, connected gait to eclipse 2024's total. The Minnesota Twins stole an MLB-low 65 bases successful 2024; 14 teams already person much successful 2025.

Jerry Weinstein, a Chicago Cubs catching consultant, said pitchers get the shot to the sheet successful the 1.3-second range, and catchers' popular times are betwixt 1.8 and 2.0 seconds.

"There's thing we tin bash to amended that, that's a staple," Weinstein said. "The mean runner runs 3.35, one-tenth of a 2nd for the tag ... it's a mathematics problem. If the baserunner is perfect, and the catcher and pitcher are cleanable based connected those parameters, the guy's going to beryllium harmless astir of the time. Which is precisely what we're seeing."

But 1 MLB manager of subordinate improvement said adjacent with the emergence successful stolen bases' effect connected strategy, the champion batteries inactive power however efficiently they get outs.

"From an analytic standpoint, swinging the number successful your favour is much invaluable than defending the stolen base," the subordinate improvement manager said. "Ninety feet matters successful definite situations, [but] immoderate teams don't adjacent care. They'd alternatively person a feline execute his stuff: High limb kick, present the stuff, spell for the punch out."

Behind the plate, helium said, there's a antithetic catching archetype than determination was 25 years ago. They're present bigger, taller and tin get nether the shot with a one-knee-down stance down the plate. But, dissimilar the days erstwhile an violative juggernaut catcher was a rarity -- Mike Piazza and Carlton Fisk, oregon dual-threats similar Johnny Bench, Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra -- present an adept violative catcher tin abstracted himself from a logjam.

"If you can't hit," helium said, "you're going to person a hard clip sticking around."

From some 1991-1998 and 1999-2007, determination were 8 MLB catchers (at slightest 50% of games astatine catcher) with 3 oregon much .800 OPS, 10-home run, 50-RBI seasons. From 2008-2015, that fig fell to five. From 2016 done 2024, determination were three.

"The violative merchandise is incredibly low, the carnal demands precise high, and what we worth successful catching has changed truthful overmuch and is connected the precipice of changing again," said a manager of amateur scouting. "We enactment truthful overmuch worth connected catchers being capable to framework pitches and get other strikes ... and the infinitesimal that goes away, that drastically changes however we measure amateur and nonrecreational catchers."

When organizations find offensive-minded catchers who are susceptible down the plate, they thin to clasp onto them.

"It's getting harder and harder to find those guys that are truly offensive, they're fewer and acold between," a manager of amateur scouting said. "You sanction one, past I'll sanction one. I warrant it's going to beryllium a abbreviated list."

Another manager of amateur scouting said portion of what makes immoderate catchers successful this year's draught truthful invaluable is that they tin drawback and perchance beryllium a standout violative performer.

"You don't privation [a catcher you draught successful the archetypal round] to person a presumption alteration a twelvemonth and a fractional down the road," the scout said. "You're going to determination him to archetypal basal oregon near field, and present the violative barroom is truthful overmuch higher there."

Which is wherefore immoderate MLB scouts are precocious connected Stevenson and deliberation helium tin grip the adjustments the presumption present requires. He was dependable down location sheet for North Carolina, a large blocker but below-average receiver. But it's what the 6-foot-1, 210-pound, left-handed hitting All-America catcher did with his bat that has drawn the attraction of MLB scouts: Among Division I catchers who person caught 90 games since 2024, Stevenson ranked 2nd successful location runs (33), 3rd successful runs (104) and sixth successful OPS (.960). He drew 29 much walks (107) than immoderate different catcher portion having the second-best pursuit complaint (17.2%) and second-most pitches per sheet quality (4.09).

Although immoderate MLB scouts and subordinate improvement unit person raised questions astir Stevenson's mitt and whether helium could thrive down the sheet astatine the sport's apical level, others accidental his powerfulness and discerning oculus travel astatine specified a premium that antiaircraft concerns are secondary and correctable. One manager of amateur scouting said Stevenson's level is backup catcher astatine the MLB level.

One enforcement of a squad with a top-10 draught prime said Stevenson is successful the premix that precocious due to the fact that his antiaircraft method is easy adjustable, but an oculus and bat similar that astatine a presumption specified arsenic catcher is excessively uncommon to walk up.

"You could beryllium an outstanding antiaircraft catcher, but if you can't deed a lick, it's hard to marque a roster arsenic an mundane player," helium said.

"Hardest presumption to evaluate," different manager of amateur scouting said, "amateur catcher."

He compared the predraft valuation to assemblage quarterbacks trying to play successful the NFL: "Can you transition? With borderline rushers, you person little than 3 seconds to get escaped of the shot -- aforesaid for a catcher, you privation him to beryllium amended than 2 and to beryllium capable to propulsion it connected the bag. Guys that are 1.78, 1.83, 1.85? They tin get distant with a higher throw, but the 2.0 guys person to beryllium perfect. It takes a peculiar quality being to bash it and bash it for galore years."

Steve Rodriguez, Stanford University's catching coach, was Trevor Bauer and Gerritt Cole's catcher astatine UCLA earlier spending six seasons successful the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks organizations. He lauded Stevenson's prowess with a bat and said helium is underrated down the plate.

"[With] his quality and size to beryllium airy connected his feet and his knees ... I ticker him and helium tin scrape the ungraded with that genu down truthful easily: That means his equilibrium and flexibility is astatine a precocious level," Rodriguez said. "When you're capable to bash that with the accomplishment acceptable helium has with his hands, you person a beauteous phenomenal player."

Stevenson said UNC catching manager Jesse Wierzbicki, a erstwhile UNC starting catcher who played successful the Houston Astros insignificant league system, hammered receiving and blocking drills each play -- footwork, transfers to 2nd base, stealing strikes. He besides had inspiration astatine home.

"You've got 8 guys staring astatine you, being a person connected that field, directing traffic," Stevenson said. "I was astir apt 8 years aged -- my ma caught, truthful I was ever wearing the cogwheel -- erstwhile I fell successful emotion with it. It's what I wanted to do."

ON A FRIGID Tuesday greeting successful March, much than 50 precocious schoolhouse boys successful afloat azygous took the tract astatine the USA Baseball Complex successful Cary, North Carolina, with Jim Koerner successful the stands. Koerner develops on-field programming and program for USA Baseball's 13- to 17-year-old teams and is 1 of amateur American baseball's astir important barometers. His son, Sam, 18, catches for Pro5 Academy's Premier team, an elite developmental academy.

Scattered astir the diamond were players committed to Old Dominion and NC State, Virginia Tech and UNC, Ohio State and Tulane. Haven Fielder, the San Diego State-bound lad of Prince Fielder, is Pro5's designated hitter. Sam committed to Division I Radford University successful Virginia. Almost each of them instrumentality distant classes and rarely, if ever, be precocious schoolhouse in-person.

The elder Koerner said it's a infinitesimal of utmost change, some for the beloved athletics that has agelong been his livelihood and the presumption his lad fell successful emotion with. From a young age, Sam showed a earthy thin toward catching, but Jim said helium urged Sam toward the presumption helium thought would supply the champion accidental of a prosperous shot life.

Now he's not truthful sure.

Twenty years ago, Jim Koerner said, catchers were arsenic inactive arsenic possible; now, framing and throwing are much important than blocking, and passed balls are skyrocketing.

His son, similar Stevenson, is simply a left-hitting catcher. Sam is conscionable shy of 6 feet and defensively talented with a plus-arm. He besides hits good for contact. He situationally adapts his catching stance: 1 genu down if the bases are empty, accepted with runners on. Sam said, adjacent with the presumption nether siege, it's easier to propulsion retired of that. Anything to extremity the scales.

"[Sam] has aspirations, similar a batch of young kids," Jim Koerner said. "It's hard to archer young kids, 'Hey, man, you're a truly bully receiver ... but successful 5 years, that mightiness not matter. Just absorption connected your limb and hitting.'"

Sammy Serrano, Sam's catching manager and a second-round draught prime successful the 1998 MLB draft, said helium isn't disquieted astir Sam oregon however he'll accommodate to regularisation changes. Serrano said Sam has an highly precocious shot IQ and helium "just happens to beryllium the catcher."

During a crippled this spring, Sam Koerner took a relay from close field, swiped his mitt crossed the sheet and waited: Runner out. Seconds later, helium was successful the dugout asking Serrano, what helium could bash to amended his timing and technique. It was a bully play, but Sam isn't funny successful lone good.

"He ever wanted to [be a catcher]," his begetter said. "Two oregon 3 years old, he'd squat down successful beforehand of the TV and I'd beryllium like, 'Hey Sam ... whatcha doin'?'

"He'd conscionable constituent astatine the catcher connected TV."

DAVID ROSS'S WARM laughter spilled done a cellphone talker erstwhile asked however good helium would fare arsenic a catcher successful today's MLB.

"I astir apt wouldn't person a job," helium said. "I deed .180 my past twelvemonth successful Boston and I laughed: I got a two-year deal. I had a mates of deals connected the table. That would've ne'er happened aboriginal successful my vocation erstwhile framing wasn't a thing."

Ross's vocation was extended by his proclivity successful the margins.

"When I was coming up, you had holds, clasp pick, pitchouts, descent steps, 4 oregon 5 antithetic signs from coaches that would assistance you negociate the moving game," helium said. "Well, that turned into cipher wanted to tally anymore due to the fact that the percentages didn't lucifer up. Now you spot each these teams gathering with legit basal stealers and athletes."

After retiring pursuing their 2016 World Series victory, Ross became a peculiar adjunct with the Cubs, past worked arsenic an ESPN expert earlier becoming the Cubs' manager from 2020 to 2023, the archetypal play nether the regularisation changes. He is torn connected immoderate elements of the changes and changes that inactive mightiness come, specified arsenic the Automated Ball-Strike strategy already implemented successful MiLB that MLB tested this outpouring training.

"As a player, it's a hard job, mistakes outgo games, so, I emotion the situation strategy due to the fact that you're going to support the quality of the game," Ross said. "I don't deliberation we'll get distant from -- you're inactive going to beryllium teaching kids astir receiving, blocking, throwing, calling the game, the small intricacies of baseball. I don't deliberation that's going to spell away. Even with each the analytics, you inactive request a consciousness of consciousness backmost there.

"But discourtesy has won out."

Two-time All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy was an offense-first catcher retired of assemblage who became an analytic darling of the mid-2010s for his quality to framework pitches.

A mid-2000s ESPN diagnostic connected Lucroy pointed to then-Cubs wide manager Epstein's savvy successful being an aboriginal adopter to the framing movement, which included the signing of Ross. Ironically, it's the aforesaid facet of the crippled Epstein mightiness undo if an ABS strategy is implemented.

"Framing volition beryllium truthful devalued due to the fact that of the advent of the ABS strategy and they'll beryllium prioritizing the violative broadside of the presumption adjacent more," Lucroy said. "I'm biased, but I've experienced it firsthand."

Lucroy predicted that the bedrocks of the presumption volition remain.

"The astir important portion of the presumption is the crippled absorption and leadership," helium said. "There's a batch of science that goes into it: How antithetic guys communicate, however they person information, instrumentality it in, use [it]. You can't instrumentality a overgarment brushwood and swipe it crossed and everyone does it the aforesaid way."

Lucroy got to cognize his pitchers, larn astir their families, however they respond to constructive criticism.

"How bash you spell retired and talk to them decently to reel them in? Get them to alteration worldly up, alteration their thought process?" Lucroy said. "Are they a hand-hold guy? Do you person to archer them everything's good, breathe, dilatory it down? The bulk of guys are similar that. On the flip side, a feline similar Max Scherzer you tin spell retired and outcry astatine him, insult him a bit, and helium responds positively."

Lucroy said Jason Kendall erstwhile told him that the champion catchers were besides the champion communicators, that their occupation is to marque the pitcher look arsenic bully arsenic possible.

'"Make them much important than you,'" Lucroy recalled. "You privation them to spot you and judge successful you, similar immoderate different relationship. 'Cause 99% of the time, guys don't consciousness the champion erstwhile they spell retired and play."

Lucroy said catchers volition accommodate to the regularisation changes, due to the fact that they ever do. Lucroy said helium thinks erstwhile an ABS strategy is instituted, catchers volition spell backmost into a much accepted stance, which means they'll artifact balls amended and propulsion retired much runners.

But having experienced an analytics gyration himself, helium worries astir coming into an MLB transitioning betwixt eras.

"The crippled is ever shifting, ever evolving," Lucroy said. "If you spell backmost and look astatine 2016, retrieve however the Cubs had Willson Contreras backmost there? And they enactment successful David Ross. Why? Because David Ross is simply a seasoned who ended up being a aboriginal manager who knows what the heck he's doing and however to grip guys successful large situations."

Lucroy said helium doesn't deliberation that's an accident.

"Framing is important, to a definite extent," helium said, "but the champion framers successful the satellite aren't catching successful the World Series -- the amended violative guys are. Even the years erstwhile I was 1 of the apical framers successful the league, I deliberation I made the playoffs once."

SAM KOERNER'S PRO5 TEAM took connected a Canadian shot academy astatine a insignificant league stadium successful Holly Springs, North Carolina. The bases were wider -- Sam called them "pizza boxes" -- than those astatine the USA Baseball complex, truthful they stole much often here.

Sam was 1 of 3 catchers connected the roster that day, and the lone 1 committed to a college. He didn't play until the eighth inning, and erstwhile helium yet got to bat, helium cranked the archetypal transportation implicit the close tract wall. It astir deed a car connected the adjacent NC 55 roadway.

His dada rushed to propulsion the video -- it was Sam's 3rd in-game location tally ever -- but the camera was off.

In the property container afterward, Sam said he's taking a spread year. He'll enroll astatine Radford successful the autumn of 2026 and play with Pro5 until then, maximizing his maturation virtually and technically.

Sam doesn't person to contend with caller MLB-type rules yet, but if aspiration meets opportunity, helium soon will.

"It's already a situation trying to clasp runners connected [even] though the regularisation changes aren't affecting me," Sam said. "I don't cognize what other [catchers] could do. I'm conscionable tryin' to beryllium arsenic accelerated arsenic I tin to 2nd base, connected the bag."

In moving with thousands of players and coaches crossed the U.S., Jim Koerner said MLB's rules changes haven't been adopted astatine the younker levels, which means they haven't straight altered however younker shot is played -- yet. But for Sam and his peers, and adjacent younger players, making it to an NCAA shot squad and yet to MLB are the goals.

"The mode pro evaluators are going to look astatine the catching presumption is going to commencement to alteration now," Koerner said. "But connected the flip side, erstwhile you worth the feline connected the mound arsenic overmuch arsenic he's valued present astatine the nonrecreational level, they inactive request to spot the feline catching. There's inactive a confidence, a comfort, a enactment aspect."

It's the facet Sam prides himself connected astir and what Lucroy said was invaluable.

"Building bully relationships with my pitchers, ever having their back," Sam said. "It makes them execute amended knowing they person a feline down the sheet wherever they can, adjacent arsenic elemental arsenic 0-2, they tin spike a ceramic successful the ungraded and cognize I'm going to prime 'em up and artifact it and propulsion the feline retired astatine first."

At luncheon successful betwixt his crippled and a weightlifting session, Sam inhaled a Philly cheesesteak. He buzzed portion breaking down the catching techniques of Cincinnati's Jose Trevino and San Francisco's Patrick Bailey. He besides acknowledged that during a crippled earlier, his mediate digit got caught asking for a curveball and helium took a 90-mile-per-hour fastball successful the thorax plate.

Jim said it's conscionable however Sam is; determination is nary mentation of him absent of catching.

"When helium was 7 oregon 8, he'd get backmost determination and spot these large guys travel to deed and ... he'd beryllium excited but he'd look astatine maine like..." Jim said, his eyes going wide.

"I was frightened to death," Sam said.

"But helium yet warmed up to it," Jim said, smiling.

They fell into a cadence, starting and finishing each other's anecdotes. They've chosen a shot life, devoid of escaped time. Jim wishes helium were location much often, and Sam mightiness arsenic good unrecorded successful catching gear. Recently, they tried to game-plan connected a rare, shared time off. They couldn't determine what to do. Eventually, Jim pitched batting signifier to Sam.

"[At a] performance the different day, 1 of the guys was tellin' a communicative astir fishing, being retired determination with his girl and she's thinking, 'We're going fishing?' The feline says, 'It's not ... conscionable fishing,'" Jim said.

"When I inquire Sam, 'Hey, bash you wanna hit? You wanna spell lift?' For him, it mightiness beryllium conscionable baseball."

Suddenly, a sound came connected the property container doorway to vacate. Sam and Jim turned successful their chairs and shared a glance.

"Well, for me," Jim said, packing up, "it's not conscionable baseball."