Mediators have tried over the weekend to convince both Israel and Hamas to sign up to a new cease-fire proposal for Gaza made public by US President Joe Biden on Friday.
Biden presented the plan as originally an Israeli one, although Israel's government has voiced criticism of some of the details since then. Still, senior US officials said they were confident of Israeli agreement if Hamas were to sign up.
"This was an Israeli proposal. We have every expectation that if Hamas agrees to the proposal — as was transmitted to them, an Israeli proposal — then Israel would say yes," White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Sunday in an interview with ABC News.
Talks seeking a cease-fire have been ongoing for months — mediated primarily by Egypt, Qatar and the US — but none of these efforts have borne fruit since a one-week pause in fighting in November, when Israeli hostages were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
What are the details of the three-step framework?
The proposal outlines three distinct phases, and is reminiscent of but not identical to past suggestions.
Stage 1 would be a six-week period in which Israeli troops withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza. That period would also foresee the "release of a number of hostages" taken by Hamas in the October 7 terror attacks, in exchange for the release of some Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Stage 2 foresees the release of all remaining hostages and a complete Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
Stage 3 then foresees the start of a major reconstruction effort in Gaza.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani also said that it includes provisions seeking to facilitate increased aid access to Gaza.
A temporary truce would accompany these efforts for as long as bilateral talks did not break down. And, as Biden put it, "as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, the temporary cease-fire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, 'the cessation of hostilities permanently.'"
"It's time for this war to end, for the day after to begin," Biden said when floating the deal.
The US president's position on the war has developed from more or less unconditional support for Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas's October 7 attacks to a much more critical position as the conflict drags on and as the death toll in Gaza, now at more than 36,000, continues to climb.
Qatari, Egyptian and US mediators urged both sides to "finalize" the proposal in a joint statement over the weekend.
Smotrich, Ben Gvir threaten to quit Israeli government
A foreign policy aide to Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper that despite there being "a lot of details to be worked out," the Israeli government nevertheless accepted the framework. Ophir Falk said the proposal was "a deal we agreed to — it's not a good deal but we dearly want the hostages released, all of them."
The proposal could destabilize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, with two of the most far-right members of his Cabinet threatening to walk out of government if it is approved.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Belazel Smotrich both voiced their opposition, with Ben-Gvir saying his party would "dissolve the government" if it went through.
Smotrich meanwhile said, "We demand the continuation of the war until Hamas is destroyed and all hostages are returned."
However, Israel's opposition leader Yair Lapid and a centrist member of the temporary War Cabinet, Benny Gantz, have voiced support for the deal and said they would help Netanyahu push it through the Knesset if his current allies refuse.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that amid ongoing military operations, "the defense establishment is simultaneously assessing a government alternative to Hamas" for Gaza.
"We will not accept the rule of Hamas in Gaza at any stage in any process aimed at ending the war," Gallant said.
This goal, frequently emphasized by Israeli leaders, has been criticized as practically impossible by observers. It is also not clear how this would be reconciled with efforts to secure the release of hostages being held by Hamas and its allies.
Hamas non-committal in first response
Hamas' first responses to the proposal have been vague, noting "positive" elements but also implying it does not go far enough.
"Biden's speech included positive ideas, but we want this to materialize within the framework of a comprehensive agreement that meets our demands," senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera on Saturday.
The proposal does not appear to solve the most intractable gulfs in position between the two sides.
Israel has reiterated that there will not be a permanent cease-fire while Hamas continues to pose a threat to its security and retain military capabilities.
And Hamas has said it will only consider releasing hostages in exchange for a permanent halt to military activity in Gaza. Although it hasn't named its own survival as an entity as a precondition, a scenario in which it approves its own dissolution seems unlikely.
The last cease-fire proposal made public did not materialize, with each side blaming the other for its failure.
Hamas is designated a terrorist organization by the US, Israel and Germany among others.
Will the new ceasefire plan end the war in Gaza?
msh/ab (AFP, AP, dpa, Reuters)