Kalshi adds 3 million new users as prediction market capitalizes on the World Cup

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has sent prediction market trading volumes across platforms soaring. And for Kalshi, it has delivered millions of new users. 

Kalshi has brought in 3 million new users over the course of the tournament, the company shared with CNBC. 

More than $1.2 billion has been traded on Kalshi's contracts that ask traders to predict the winner of the World Cup, a record for a singular market. That market will officially close on Sunday, after Spain and Argentina compete in the final for the title. 

"I don't think there's any game like football," said Vijay Viswanathan, an associate dean of integrated marketing communications at Northwestern University, referring to soccer. "It's played in about every country in the world … so in just terms of the total addressable market, there's really nothing that comes close to the FIFA World Cup."

Across the World Cup, Kalshi has made several moves to boost its brand. Those include a partnership with the official prediction market sponsor of the World Cup, ADI Predictstreet, to feature co-branding advertisements in stadiums. It also partnered with OpenAI last week to feature the company's contract's odds when users search about games in the tournament on ChatGPT. 

But it also has featured a slew of advertisements with key faces in the soccer world: Croatian soccer star Luka Modric, longtime Real Madrid coach José Mourinho, and even a partnership with the Argentina national team. That deal got the company a feature in a post by superstar Lionel Messi on Instagram. 

"Our volumes are where the news is at," said Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, who takes on a lead role in guiding the company's marketing strategy. "It's a lot of the approach for the World Cup. … The most important thing is enable creativity based on what's happening."

Speed is key, too. One advertisement featuring former professional soccer stars playing a scrimmage with each other released on Friday was conceived, executed and released in 24 hours, Mansour said. 

But Kalshi also launched ads with non-soccer celebrities around the tournament, too. An advertisement with actor Timothee Chalamet was released in June — around when he was garnering attention for his appearances at New York Knicks games during the NBA Finals — while a spot with Colombian singer J Balvin came out this month. 

"This is also a way for them to say, 'oh, but we're also relevant to all these other people who might not be that interested in sports, too,'" said Elizabeth Johnson, executive director of the Wharton Neuroscience Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania. Johnson also teaches a visual marketing class at the university. "They're seizing this moment to remind people about the ubiquitousness of what these prediction markets are."

Leaning heavily into the sports event comes with risks, too. Sports event contracts are under scrutiny in a dispute between the federal government and the states. States argue those contracts are equivalent to sports betting, something state governments control. 

Kalshi agrees with the federal government that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — which regulates swaps and derivatives — has the sole power to regulate prediction markets. 

Mansour dismissed those concerns, though, arguing its sports contracts are only under pressure from gambling companies worried about losing their dominant, incumbent positions. 

Brian Sung, a partner in the derivatives and digital assets practice groups at Haynes Boone, doesn't think the advertising strategies impact how courts may rule in the future, but said it does impact the view of prediction markets. 

"It does kind of weaken their perception, in public or politics," he said. "They are trying to push against this idea that they're really only about sports. I mean, that is where the bulk of their activity is."

Kalshi now moves onto turning those 3 million new users into recurring traders, which could be a challenge: volume on days when World Cup matches haven't been played has been significantly lower than when the games are on. 

Mansour added this cycle has happened before: a major event that drives volume higher, with a temporary decline after only for it to keep marching higher off of other events.

"You have to believe there's not going to be any news after Sunday," he said. "Maybe, … but the more probable thing is that there's going to be like a bunch of things going on in the world, and Kalshi's going to be there to service it."

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.