'Makerfield is suddenly at the epicentre of British politics'

Once again all eyes are on Greater Manchester - less than four months after the Gorton and Denton by-election, here we go again.

This time in the parliamentary seat of Makerfield in Wigan.

The constituency is suddenly at the epicentre of British politics - and the result could decide the next prime minister.

The first thing to learn about Makerfield is it isn't actually a place. It's a constituency made up of eight wards, and parts of two more, none of which are called Makerfield. It is home to about 76,000 voters in the suburbs of Wigan and nearby former mining towns and villages.

Although the constituency is in Greater Manchester, many people there still consider themselves Lancastrians, including Margaret Atherton, who has lived in Ashton-in-Makerfield for almost 70 years.

She told me without hesitation: "It's still Lancashire to me, I know my postcode is Manchester, but I will always live in Lancashire."

Makerfield - and under its previous name of Ince - has been Labour for more than a 120 years. It is considered one of the party's safest red wall seats but recently things have shifted.

In the 2024 general election, Josh Simons retained the seat for Labour with a majority of just over 5,000. Reform UK came second.

However, at the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party swept the board, winning all seats up for grabs in Makerfield.

Ninety-six percent of people in the constituency are white British born and 65% voted to leave the EU.

"This is exactly the sort of place that Reform can expect to do well," said Prof of Politics Jon Tonge, from the University of Liverpool.

This is "Brexit" land as well as "Labour" land, he added.

But can the results of the local elections be replicated at a parliamentary by-election?

Voters often use by-elections to "kick" the incumbent government. Tonge believes this time though it will be "tougher" for Reform UK.

"Labour's vote in those council wards didn't collapse as much as Reform's went up, Reform hoovered up a lot of votes from independents.

"So we are not talking about a collapse of the Labour vote, but we are talking about a significant decline in it," he explained.

The Conservatives have had a reasonable level of support historically in the constituency; they came fairly close in the 2019 general election with a 34% share of the vote.

Not even Boris Johnson's popularity at the time nor a large support for Brexit could shift Labour from control.

As for the other main parties, Tonge reckons it is "very difficult" to see where the Liberal Democrats or Green Party will feature. They did secure more than 3,000 votes between them in 2024, and Labour will be "hoping their votes go over to them," says Tonge.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, who stepped down to allow Andy Burnham an opportunity to contest the seat and become an MP.

If elected, he is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for Labour's leadership.

So this is an election like no other. A sitting Labour MP standing down to help someone else get elected.

It is a huge risk and is now in the hands of the people of Makerfield.

The responsibility of the electorate is "absolutely huge", said Tonge. "The voters of Makerfield are, in all probability, shaping who our next prime minister will be," he added.

Do they feel the "monumental" responsibility?

Taking a break outside her coffee shop called Hel's Kitchen, Helen Lawson said the by-election was "good".

She is fed up with anti-social behaviour in her town and wants to see politicians do "what they say they're going to do".

While one shopper who did not want his name used said: "It's a betrayal of the people who voted for the other MP in the first place".

Once again, all eyes are on Greater Manchester. The people of Makerfield have an important choice to make and could hold the key to the future of Andy Burnham, the Labour Party and to Number 10 Downing street.