Mexico poised to elect first female president

On Sunday, Mexicans will be voting for a new president in an election that marks a major milestone. For the first time in the country's history, the race has come down to two female candidates: Claudia Sheinbaum (above), of the ruling Morena party, and Xochitl Galvez, of the opposition alliance.

Xochitl Galvez is currently polling second though her campaign rallies, like the above, draw many fansImage: Carlo Echegoyen/AFP/Getty Images

Claudia Sheinbaum: The favorite

The clear favorite in the election is Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the left-wing populist Morena party. The granddaughter of Jewish immigrants from Lithuania, Sheinbaum is an experienced politician, having served as mayor of Mexico City. Support for her party has grown significantly over the past years, and Morena currently holds around two-thirds of the Mexico's 32 mayorships.

Sheinbaum also has the backing of the current Mexican president and Morena party leader, Andres Lopez Obrador, who remains widely popular. He is not eligible to run, however, as the constitution limits a president to one six-year term.

Presidential favorite Claudia Sheinbaum has been described as a rather lackluster campaignerImage: Hector Vivas/Getty Images

Xochitl Galvez: The challenger

Xochitl Galvez, a successful businesswoman of indigenous origin and senator from the state of Hidalgo, is running for the opposition alliance Strength and Heart for Mexico (Fuerza y Corazon por Mexico), made up of the conservative PAN, center-right PRI and left-wing PRD parties. In constrast to Sheinbaum, Galvez is considered charismatic and approachable — a woman of the people, who until recently still rode her bike around Mexico City.

Polls show Sheinbaum leading with around 55% of the vote to Galvez's 30%.

Xochitl Galvez is the candidate of the big-tent opposition coalitionImage: Fernando Llano/AP Photo/picture alliance

Popular social programs 

Sheinbaum is running on a platform of continuity, specifically of the reforms begun by Lopez Obrador, whose ongoing popularity — his current approval rating tops 60% — is likely due in part to the state social programs he initiated. However, some political observers question how sustainable these programs may be.

"Social programs and a minimum wage increase of 110% in real terms delivered tangible improvements to the poor during his time in office," explains Gerold Schmidt, director of the Mexico office of the German left-wing Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. "These people probably felt seen and valued for the first time. The importance of this subjective factor should not be underestimated."

Hans Blomeier, director of the Mexico office of the German, right-wing Konrad Adenauer Foundation, reaches a different conclusion: "The social benefits of Lopez Obrador's government are due not to structural changes but to debt-financed cash transfers made to the poor classes." He argues that no party wants to admit that this form of redistribution is not financially sustainable.

Current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is extremely popularImage: Mexican Presidency/Handout/AFP

Violence and drug war

Mexico's rampant violence is an important campaign topic. For years, the country has been suffering from a high crime rate and a bloody drug war. Gangs and cartels fight for control of the drug trade, which leads to extreme levels of violence and insecurity in many regions.

According to official statistics, 1,890 individuals were killed last year in confrontations between the powerful cartels. Since 2006, the year a controversial military operation against drug cartels was launched, more than 450,000 individuals have been killed, with another 100,000 missing.

The current campaign season has also seen candidates attacked during campaign appearances. Various sources put the number of murdered candidates at between 25 and 37, with some killed in broad daylight. Another 80 non-fatal attacks have taken place in the week leading up to the election.

"Even if the Lopez Obrador government can't be held responsible for the situation — the complicated roots of the current situation go back decades and are found elsewhere — trivializing and tolerating the problem of organized crime and cartels has made the problem even worse," Blomeier says.

Mayoral candidate Alfredo Cabrera, was murdered during a campaign rally (above), one of numerous individuals to have died while running for officeImage: Francisco Robles/AFP/Getty Images

Migration and US relationship

Migration is another pressing campaign topic. Mexico is both a country of origin and a transit land for many individuals hoping to make it to the US. This raises a number of diverse challenges: Humanitarian crises on the border, tensions with the US, and domestic pressure due to the intake and accommodation of migrants. Last year more than 2.4 million individuals crossed the southern US border, with most of them coming from Central America and Venezuela.

Migration management will be one of the most important challenges for the next president, says Schmidt: "Mexico serves as a de facto reception camp for migrants for the US, and it plays the role of a police officer on its border with Guatemala in the south." He does not see an end to the wave of migration, and he believes the situation will grow more tense if a potential second Trump administration tightens the border even further.

How much room to maneuver?

Sheinbaum has been rather unspectacular and uncharismatic throughout the campaign. Should she be elected as expected, will she be able to step out of the shadow of her political mentor, Lopez Obrador?

Schmidt believes she can, since Mexican presidents have a lot of power while in office. But he also points out that the future distribution of power in the House of Representatives and Senate will be decisive. An (unlikely) two-thirds majority would enable her to enact constitutional reforms without needing to rely on the conservative opposition, he explains. "Otherwise Sheinbaum is going to need to negotiate on a lot of issues," Schmidt says.

Mexicans will be electing more than just the president on June 2, which marks the largest election in Mexican history, with some 100 million eligible voters: Ballots will also be cast for Congress, nine state governments and more than 20,000 public offices.

Blomeier also believes the future congressional makeup will be decisive for the political direction of the world's largest Spanish-speaking country. "With respect to democracy, one hopes that along with a clear mandate for the new government, voters will also ensure there is meaningful democratic opposition in Congress, so the democratic and legal steps backward taken by the current administration will not be topped by the next administration through a constitutional majority."

This article has been translated from German.