Monday Briefing: Conservatives Near Victory in Germany

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A man in a blue suit holds a microphone at a political event.
Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union.Credit...Ina Fassbender/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The conservative Christian Democrats appeared to be on the cusp of victory in Germany’s parliamentary elections yesterday, exit polls show. The country’s next chancellor will almost certainly be Friedrich Merz, a businessman who has promised to crack down on migrants, and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth.

Early exit polls indicated that the hard-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, was in second place with 19.5 percent of the vote, a result that was lower than predicted. With a voter participation of 83.5 percent, the election appears to have had the highest turnout since reunification 35 years ago.

President Trump was a late-arriving issue in the campaign. Merz vowed to bring stronger leadership in Europe at a moment when Trump had sowed anxiety on the continent by scrambling traditional alliances and embracing Russia. At a round-table debate yesterday, Merz slammed what he called “interference from Washington” in the election by Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance.

What’s next: If the exit polls are correct, Merz is unlikely to have the easy option of forming a coalition with the second-place finisher. Like other party leaders, he has promised never to partner with the AfD, parts of which are classified as extremist by German intelligence.

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