Navigating a More Uncertain World: Lessons from CIA’s Red Cell

Twenty-five years after 9/11, the United States is confronting yet another era of profound uncertainty and potential dangers. The pace and scale of change are creating unforeseen disruptions that impact our security, stability, and prosperity. Advancing technologies are being adopted and applied in unexpected ways, sparking debates about the unintended consequences for human existence. No longer can we sit back and wait to be surprised.

In the wake of 911, the CIA stood up the Red Cell to address a systemic failure of imagination and later reaffirmed this mission after the intelligence failures of the Iraq War. As memories have faded, the appetite for bold, contrarian thinking has waned, but we remain one unforeseen act of violence, one slow-burning and overlooked development, one scientific breakthrough away from the next shock. In this essay, those who served in the Red Cell look back on its history to derive lessons for better navigating this uncertain future. Now is not a time for cautious assessments but fearless exploration. Leaders in the public and private sectors must be ready to navigate a broader range of possible futures. The safety, security, and livelihoods of future generations depend on such forward thinking.

The Origin of the Red Cell

It was September 12, 2001, just 24 hours after the tragic attacks of 9/11. The American people were in shock and struggling to make sense of what had happened. The United States had experienced a strategic surprise as unfathomable as the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941.

At CIA headquarters in Virginia that morning, Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet gathered Deputy Director for Intelligence Jami Miscik and two distinguished analytic managers, Robert Ovelmen and Paul Frandano, to find a way to compel the bureaucracy to go beyond what it knew and what it assessed and to consider what could be. With a simple but bold mandate, “tell me what others don’t” and “make seniors feel uncomfortable,” he commissioned them to create a new analytic unit, called the Red Cell, to challenge conventional wisdom on terrorism. (Foreign Policy) Neither Ovelmen nor Frandano were experts on terrorism or the Middle East, but they were known for their strong analytic skills, exceptional command of history, understanding of policymaker needs, and somewhat quirky personalities. This cell was not limited to traditional Cold War-style “red teaming” that focused on roleplaying the adversary, but instead it was a more expansive effort to explore possibilities.

Tenet gave them great latitude to gather talent from across the intelligence enterprise. While the mission initially was limited to terrorism and the Middle East, the analysts they recruited had worked everything but those issues. Having experienced the unthinkable, these analysts were tasked to stretch their imaginations to consider the full range of plausible next events. The first products were short and pithy, with catchy titles and provocative ideas about the nature of attack and what the coming days and weeks could portend. The first Red Cell analysis was published two days later on 14 September. Tenet took it directly into the Oval Office, and President George W. Bush asked for more.

Within the first year, the Red Cell was tasked to go beyond its original focus on terrorism and branch into other issues. In the run up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Red Cell produced a flurry of products on what Iraqi President Saddam Husayn might do to prevent an attack and how he might react. The presentations and argumentation were deliberately eye-catching and evocative to make readers engage with the ideas and to remember them the next day. Ovelmen and Frandano knew the avalanche of information and meetings senior policymakers faced each day and wanted the ideas to stand out and be considered, even if they were later dismissed.

This strategy was not without controversy. Some ideas were not only bold but contradicted by existing facts. Others unwittingly were uncomfortably close to highly sensitive policies and plans. Some military commanders in the field worried that the Red Cell might give their superiors dangerous ideas. Expert analysts across the IC were often furious, especially if a Red Cell idea created a tasking for them. Sometimes CIA seniors had to remind readers that the Red Cell was not the authoritative assessment. Even with these challenges, the Red Cell continued to have senior-level support. One senior policymaker once said, “tell those analysts I disagree with this but also tell them to keep writing it.” In his 2006 confirmation testimony to become CIA director, General Michael Hayden said, "Red cell alternative analysis and red cell alternative evaluations are a rich source of thought-provoking estimates, and they should be a part, an integral part, of our analysis.” (Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, May 18, 2006)

BOX: Original mission statement: “In response to the events of 11September, the Director of Central Intelligence commissioned CIA ‘s Deputy Director for Intelligence to create a "red cell " that would think unconventionally about the full range of relevant analytic issues. The DCI Red Cell is thus charged with taking a pronounced "out-of-the-box " approach and will periodically produce memoranda and reports intended to provoke thought rather than to provide authoritative assessments.”

The Next Generation – Red Cell 2.0

As the Red Cell approached the end of the decade, the remaining original members planned to retire. They assumed they would be told to turn off the lights and lock the vault. They had a good run! They had many fans and probably an equal number of skeptics. Contrary to their expectations, then–CIA Deputy Director for Analysis Michael Morell tasked them to find a new set of leaders to carry on the work and train the next generation.

However, with greater distance from the tragedy of 9/11, the interest in and tolerance for the most extreme ideas had waned among some audiences. Both policymakers and the intelligence leadership wanted Red Cell products to have more grounding in tradecraft and data while still considering alternative trajectories and expanding thinking on the various possibilities. The new Red Cell leadership recognized the challenge to preserve and maintain the “Redness” while grounding the assessments with rigorous research and data. To meet these competing demands, they launched Red Cell 2.0, refreshing the brand and expanding the style, argumentation, and presentation.

The Red Cell still had top-level support to delve into the thorniest issues. In September 2012, CIA Director David Petraeus reiterated and expanded the mission, telling the Red Cell to “take on our most difficult intelligence challenges” and “shock us.” During this time, both senior military officers and policymakers found value in Red Cell analysis. Lt. General H.R. McMaster recalled that “As National Security Advisor and as a military commander in combat, I found Red Cell papers useful, in part, because they challenged assumptions and were untainted by and often ran counter to policy preferences.”

Other leaders wanted to participate in the brainstormings because Red Cell analysts challenged them. Supreme Allied Commander NATO, Admiral James Stavridis described engaging with the Red Cell team as “an intellectual adventure that forced my senior staff to interrogate our assumptions, consider more extreme futures for the Alliance, and to understand the choices and risks involved in each scenario.” Red Cell engagements often kicked off with a provocative prompt to disarm the participants and to pave the way for a more open and productive conversation. In one such engagement, a Red Cell analyst launched with “sir, if you were indicted for war crimes.” Although taken aback by such an outlandish suggestion, the prompt changed the tenor of the conversation, and this senior leader became a regular consumer of Red Cell analysis.

To add rigor and maintain credibility, the cell directly addressed perceived analytic tradecraft weaknesses, built partnerships with similar units across the US government, systematically interrogated assumptions and biases, and experimented with new ways of conveying analysis. To show their homework, Red Cell analysts sharpened the logic and argumentation of its products and published more point/counterpoint assessments to illuminate both sides of a contentious issue. During this time, CIA leadership reaffirmed the importance of the cell’s mission but encouraged the team to consider scenarios that were smaller deviations from the expected future—rather than being so far out of the box. In response, the Red Cell turned to more multiple scenarios analysis to explore the spectrum of futures from slight variations to more extreme futures. (NPR, May 23, 2012) Some applauded this effort while others complained the Red Cell would lose its edge.

Being a small, experienced, and non-hierarchical unit enabled rapid prototyping. The team experimented with innovative analytic exercises and developed new approaches for delivering complex analytic stories in creative, memorable ways. For example, the team kicked off each year with a highly engaging, day-long exercise called “Ideapalooza” to push beyond the expected future and explore the intersection of trends and dynamics. (Foreign Policy) The Red Cell was the first unit to publish a fully interactive, choose-your-own-adventure, analytic product, enabling analysts and policymakers to test the impact of different variables. The Red Cell experimented with delivering analysis as a graphic novel. To present difficult messages, the Red Cell drew on historical analogies, turns of phrase, and even pop culture. From song references like “Back in the USSR” to puns about the cold when writing about the Arctic to provocative titles like “Anticipating Saddam’s Last Gasp Gambits,” “Saddam’s Eleventh Hour Options,” and “What If the US Is Seen as an Exporter of Terrorism,” the Red Cell pushed the limits to make scenarios vivid and spark the imagination.

While maintaining its creative environment, the Red Cell often tackled some of the most serious and challenging national security questions. The NSC called upon the Red Cell to produce highly speculative, strategic perspectives on global issues that did not lend themselves to more traditional, heavily sourced intelligence products, such as the future of geopolitics, the durability of alliances, and the international order. These products were less challenge analysis and more thought provoking, big picture assessments. The collocation of senior analysts from different disciplines and with experiences working different regions and issues was an advantage in tackling broad, strategic global issues.

Moving from a Cell to a Product Line

In the most significant evolution since the creation of the Red Cell, in 2023 the Red Cell ceased to be a standalone unit and became a product line under the direction of a Red Cell chief. No longer was there a dedicated staff or separate offices. Instead, Red Cells would now be written by the expert analysts, managed and edited by a senior-level analyst in negotiation with regional and issue managers. There are obvious pros and cons to this new approach.

• On the plus side, products could draw on the expertise of those who know the topic best and can see more nuanced variations. Moreover, when published, the assessments would have high-level support, increasing the possibility of policymakers reading them.

• However, it is difficult to question your own, well-researched and -reasoned analytic line, especially one that has held up to time and events. During crises, expert analysts rarely have the time to pull away from daily coverage of events to consider alternatives and question assumptions. Human nature is to expect the future to be like the present, and it often requires an outsider who is not burdened by expertise to ask the fundamental questions. For example, in 2011, regional analysts in the early days of the Arab Spring were covering the crisis 24/7 with situation reports and daily assessments. The Red Cell was able to explore provocative questions, such as “is this an end-of-history moment”, and could develop multiple scenarios for how the crisis might end.

Shades of Red

Looking back on this work, Red Cell products have always had many shades of red, ranging from far outside the box—almost crimson analysis—to products that were just a subtle but important deviation from the mainline–pink. Sometimes the situation called for a complete 180-degree contrarian take on how the world could go in the opposite direction, but in other situations the Red Cell looked to stress-test underlying assumptions or pursue multiple scenarios. From the beginning, the Red Cell focused on a few analytic techniques or prompts to help tease out subtleties and other perspectives.

• A popular and effective approach was What-If analysis. This approach recognized the most likely future trajectory but then asked, what if something changed? These pieces explored both why something different might happen and what the consequences might be.
• Devil’s Advocacy—a true contrarian alternative—was sometimes but not often the line of argumentation. More frequently, the piece offered a range of ways a situation could evolve or various perspectives a foreign actor might hold.
• Another favorite but more difficult approach which was used from the beginning was the first-person narrative in which the Red Cell tried to channel the strategies, calculations, and even fears of key leaders like Saddam Husayn and Usama Bin Laden. (CIA Reading Room)
• An important and analytically rigorous technique was the assumptions check in which the Red Cell would identify and interrogative important underlying assumptions about an issue.
• Multiple scenarios papers delivered variations of the future from very “red” storylines to trajectories that are largely continuations of the status quo. Some scenarios were mutually exclusive while others offered sequential developments.
• Team A/B or Point/Counterpoint papers explored opposing explanations or arguments about the future. Sometimes, these were delivered in a debate style.

Assessing the Value of the Red Cell

There are many misconceptions about the role of such a contrarian unit. Many tried to assess the value of Red Cell products based on accuracy, assuming that predicting the future better than the mainline analytic experts was the goal. However, the Red Cell was never designed to be right or to provide authoritative assessments. Judging the value of the Red Cell based on how often its alternative analysis was right misses the point. In fact, the Red Cell should be wrong most of the time, given the exceptional expertise and analysis conducted by the Intelligence Community every day. When the Red Cell was right, the mainline analysis by definition had missed something.

At its core, the mission of the Red Cell was to help US decision-makers prepare for a greater range of possible futures to make our nation safer, stronger, and more resilient in the face of growing uncertainty and to give them decision advantage. The Red Cell achieved this by widening the aperture on any situation and exploring plausible—not necessarily probable—futures. The real value was in making people think, making them curious, provoking debate, and helping them understand the underlying foundations of their assessments. Done right, the Red Cell identified analytic weaknesses and helped make mainline analysis stronger. Helping analytic colleagues strengthen their assessments was more important than delivering a finished product to a senior policymaker.

Here are few ways to consider the value and usefulness:

• Did decision-makers read it? Yes, some more than others. Many read the analysis even—and especially—if they disagreed with it as a check on their own thinking.

• Did analysts and warfighters read Red Cells? Absolutely. Red Cell products were among the most read analytic products in the Intelligence Community over multiple years.

• Did Red Cells spark debate? Almost always. It created discussions, which was the point.

• Did senior decision-makers ask for Red Cell papers? Quite often.

• Did Red Cell products influence policy discussions and even choices? Again, yes. In one instance, the NSC reworked a regional strategy in light of a Red Cell memo that foresaw the involvement of a major international player. (Forbes)

• Did the Red Cell shift and improve the culture of mainline analytic units? Yes. Over time many offices incorporated Red Cell techniques, and some created their own contrarian in-house units. Red Cell alumni often went back to “regular” units, in effect, becoming evangelists for out-of-the-box thinking and analysis.

• Have others incorporated these techniques and approaches? Yes, in foreign governments, international institutions, and private companies, entities like the Red Cell—some even called the Red Cell—now exist around the world. (Stimson Center) (Red Cell Partners)Georgetown University has created a Master’s Degree that includes Red Cell projects. (Georgetown University) In 2023, the Stimson Center—a Washington-based think tank—created its own unit called the Red Cell which takes “a devil’s advocate approach to US foreign policy” and “puts forward innovative solutions and unorthodox thinking about America’s role in the world.” (Stimson Center)

Secrets of Success

The success of the Red Cell stemmed from the combination of circumstances, design, and leadership. The shock and fear generated by the attacks on 9/11, followed by flawed intelligence assessments of Iraq’s WMD programs, created the environment for more speculative, creative, and provocative analytic assessments. To meet this demand, CIA leadership made several important choices to create a unique unit with the authority to explore, question, challenge, and go beyond the data. Moreover, they let the ideas be heard, even when they were on the edge and even when they disagreed with them. However, over time, as memories of 9/11 faded, the conditions that facilitated and protected bold analysis evaporated or were dismantled one after another.

Top Cover: With a mandate to make leaders uncomfortable, success required absolute assurance and top cover. That top cover came from both senior analytic managers and senior customers and was reiterated often in the early days.

The Process: The Red Cell also was given the freedom to write and publish without going through formal Intelligence Community coordination processes. The Red Cell was required to consult, but not to coordinate. It could—and often did—disagree with the mainline, coordinated point of view. It weighed the evidence differently. It took speculative leaps. In contrast, mainline analysis had to reflect the views and expertise of the entire organization; every analytic unit with a stake in the topic got to weigh in, and the originating office was obligated to take these views on board. Judgments had to be rigorously supported with multiple citations and sources. This process is what made the end result an CIA product, not an individual one. It ensured that all the evidence is considered and all defensible points of view are reflected. A great deal of time and effort went into coordination, and it was a point of pride for analysts to do it well and come up with an agreed analytic line.

Talent and Staffing: Being a member of and writing for the Red Cell required insatiable curiosity, a willingness to ask tough questions and go against the grain, and a propensity to see angles others didn’t. Red Cell analysts had to be fearless and willing to speak truth to power no matter the consequences. To find such talent, CIA leaders gave the Red Cell authority to recruit from across the organization and request officers from other agencies, including those senior analysts who had topped out and thus, had little fear of pushing analytic boundaries. The cell combined a few core, long-term members with frequent rotations, including from other agencies, to bring fresh ideas and new energy.

Location: Having a designated team outside of the organizational chart and physically separate from expert teams was a key component of the cell’s success. Experts can be too close to a topic or an analytic line to question it. The Red Cell could step back and see a broader landscape of possibilities.

Culture: The Red Cell was about ideas above all else and promoted a culture of exploration, play, and divergent thinking. Rank was left at the door–even for senior military officers. The work always started with conversation/brainstorming—not an unusual method—but in the cell brainstorming sessions preceded every analytic effort. The art of the conversation is teasing out ideas first. Collaboration was another critical component; Red Cell analysts often co-authored products or developed projects with other offices, agencies, governments, academia, and the private sector. No one has a monopoly on innovation or good ideas.

Conveying Analysis: Creativity in argumentation and presentation brought the unlikely future scenarios to life for skeptical consumers. The Red Cell experimented with new formats, visual aids, and graphics, and it worked closely with designers, cartographers and videographers.

Lessons for an Uncertain Future

Twenty-five years since the establishment of the Red Cell, the future environment appears even more uncertain, more prone to unprecedented disruptions, and potentially more dangerous. The combination of rapidly advancing technologies, hyper connectivity, changing international norms and institutions, discontented publics, and the return of great-power competition has created a world in flux. Change is happening at a breathtaking pace and scale with implications for our security, stability, and prosperity. Dynamics that were unimaginable even five years ago are now reality.

Experience continues to show the high probability of being surprised by low-probability events. Organizations of all types remain vulnerable to groupthink, confirmation bias, and assuming the future will be like the present. Such well-known organizational and human behaviors lie at the root of historical policy and intelligence failures. Red Cell-type organizations help guard against these tendencies and compel consideration of alternatives.

To anticipate, manage, and thrive in these divergent futures, now is the time for more Red Cell-like thinking in every sector—both public and private. Leaders and decision-makers must be ready to navigate a broader range of possible futures, including inevitable strategic surprises. Now is not a time for cautious assessments but fearless exploration. The safety, security, and livelihoods of future generations depend on such forward thinking.

Drawing on our years of analytic experience and thinking the unthinkable, this group of Red Cell alumni offers several suggestions to improve future readiness for our communities, our industries, and our country.

• Institutionalize a challenge function: Create a dedicated effort with a broad mandate and direct, unfettered access to the top leadership (CEOs, directors, commanders, etc.) Such a team should be charged with challenging assumptions, questioning longstanding practices, and exploring low probability-high impact scenarios.

• Explore a broader range of futures: Stress-test goals and policies across a range of plausible futures to improve resilience, increase flexibility, and take advantage of emerging opportunities.

• Think multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary: Dynamics and trends can no longer be analyzed in isolation. The world is too complex and connected.

• Go beyond the obvious: It is in the second- and third-order implications where surprises tend to occur, often from seemingly small development that cascade over time.

• Give permission to fail: Instill a ”start-up” mindset, where many investments are dead-ends but a few pay off in a big way.

• Be FEARLESS. The world is depending on you.