NBA fact or fiction: Was Draymond right about the end of free agency?

The ink wasn't adjacent adust connected the 2023 NBA offseason and the caller corporate bargaining statement was already nether fire.

"You either marque $50 cardinal oregon $2 [million]," former subordinate Austin Rivers said then. "It's a joke, bro. I can't archer you however galore midlevel guys are signing for the vet minimum astir the NBA."

More scrutiny followed passim the 2024 offseason erstwhile the league introduced the wage cap's restrictive 2nd apron, which curtailed high-spending teams adding to their roster extracurricular of their ain players. A twelvemonth later, Golden State Warriors guardant Draymond Green stoked the flames further erstwhile helium said that the caller CBA ruined the thrill of the yearly escaped bureau frenzy.

"I'm sitting successful my mancave having a speech with my wife. Baffled astatine the information that NBA escaped bureau is over," Green posted connected Threads successful July. "Quite frankly it ne'er truly started. The level of anticipation starring up to July 1st was arsenic breathtaking arsenic the fireworks connected the 4th. ...

"One tin lone constituent to the 'New CBA' and the 2nd apron (hard cap) for perfectly putting an extremity to Free Agency arsenic we erstwhile knew it."

Is Green right? Are different offseason trends present to stay? To reply those claims -- including whether the mediate people of players is getting squeezed retired and the authorities of restricted escaped bureau -- we played a crippled of information oregon fiction.

The 2nd apron has ruined escaped agency.

Verdict: Fiction (for now)

Draymond did person a point. Remember the 2010 offseason, erstwhile LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Amar'e Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer kept everyone waiting connected their escaped bureau decisions? Then years later, erstwhile Kevin Durant (2016) and Kawhi Leonard (2019) did the same?

Two additions to the existent CBA haven't wholly killed that level of anticipation -- though it has go noticeably watered-down.

Starting the time aft the Finals, teams are allowed to negociate with their ain escaped agents connected a caller contract. That means this year's harvest of escaped agents specified arsenic Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Fred VanVleet, Sam Merrill and Bobby Portis re-signed and were disconnected the committee earlier we reached June 30. Last year, Pascal Siakam and Malik Monk were among the apical targets to re-sign early.

Also, blasted the revised rookie and seasoned extensions rules. The quality to widen for much wealth and years person players prioritizing guarantees present implicit the risks of entering escaped agency.

A subordinate successful the past twelvemonth of their first-round declaration is present eligible to widen for 5 seasons alternatively of four, adjacent if the first-year wage is little than 25% of the wage cap. Jabari Smith signed specified an hold successful June, and Jalen Johnson, Trey Murphy III, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Suggs did truthful successful 2024. In the archetypal twelvemonth nether the existent CBA, a grounds 14 players signed rookie extensions.

This summertime could person seen Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lauri Markkanen, Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler, Rudy Gobert, Brandon Ingram, Derrick White, Ivica Zubac and Alex Caruso each go escaped agents. Instead, each signed semipermanent extensions.

"The mechanics of the corporate bargaining statement was precise clear: We are trying to springiness incumbent teams an vantage to draft, make and support players," NBA commissioner Adam Silver said during summertime league. "Doesn't mean there's nary escaped agency, but successful galore cases, you person situations wherever players are electing to enactment successful those markets. So, I don't needfully deliberation that's a atrocious thing."

In the past 3 years, 51 veterans person signed extensions (that fig volition summation to 53 if Luka Doncic and De'Aaron Fox motion extensions this month), including 26 during the 2024-25 season. For comparison, 74 players signed seasoned extensions from 2017 done 2023.

Teams are taking vantage of the agelong provision.

Verdict: Fact

A salient cause posed the question successful the aboriginal greeting earlier a circular of summertime league games were acceptable to statesman successful Las Vegas: "How galore teams are projected to person headdress abstraction successful the 2026 offseason?"

Under mean circumstances, the reply would person been eight; the Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards. But, arsenic the Milwaukee Bucks showed connected July 1, projecting teams with disposable headdress abstraction tin beryllium a futile exercise.

"Maximizing Giannis' prime, our opportunities to win, I consciousness similar that's our work always. So it was truly a present versus aboriginal decision," Bucks GM Jon Horst told the Athletic successful July, referring to waiving and past stretching the $113 cardinal owed to All-Star Damian Lillard implicit the adjacent 5 seasons.

The Bucks would besides bargain retired the $8.1 cardinal owed to defender Vasilije Micic. Like Lillard, his $2 cardinal wage was besides stretched but implicit 2 less seasons. Those moves helped Milwaukee unfastened the indispensable country to motion Myles Turner to a four-year, $108 cardinal contract.

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Myles Turner signed with Bucks to enactment successful a competitory situation

Myles Turner talks astir wherefore helium near the Pacers to articulation the Bucks successful his introductory quality conference.

The Bucks were not the lone squad to make headdress abstraction this way. The Memphis Grizzlies stretched the $11.1 cardinal post-buyout wage of Cole Anthony implicit the adjacent 3 seasons. Instead of signing a escaped cause with the country created, they elected to renegotiate and widen the declaration of guardant Jaren Jackson Jr.

The proviso to make fiscal flexibility by waiving and past stretching wage owed to a subordinate is not a caller regularisation successful the CBA. Since 2013 and up to this past offseason, 54 players and a combined $320 cardinal successful wage person been waived and stretched. Prior to Lillard, Nicolas Batum successful Charlotte had the largest per-year headdress deed of $8.9 cardinal of a subordinate stretched.

But successful the past period alone, $223 cardinal successful wage has been stretched, $100 cardinal little than the full magnitude from 2013 to 2024. Teams are consenting to sorb eight-figure headdress charges successful the foreseeable aboriginal for the involvement of creating headdress abstraction present -- oregon successful the lawsuit of the Phoenix Suns, flight fiscal purgatory.

Two weeks aft Lillard was waived, the Suns bought retired Bradley Beal and volition apt agelong the $97 cardinal owed to him implicit the adjacent 5 seasons. (Teams person up until Aug. 29 to usage the provision, arsenic agelong arsenic the stretched magnitude of each players does not transcend 15% of the wage cap.)

In this scenario, Phoenix volition person a $19.4 cardinal headdress deed successful the adjacent 5 seasons but much importantly autumn beneath the archetypal and 2nd apron. It volition present person entree to aggregate contracts sent retired successful a commercialized and the quality to usage much than 100% of the traded subordinate exception. Phoenix's 2033 first-round prime is nary longer successful information of becoming frozen, and the agelong proviso volition prevention the Suns much than $200 cardinal successful wage and luxury taxation penalties this season.

The mediate people of escaped agents has been squeezed retired of the market.

Verdict: Fiction

"The information does not enactment this notion," Silver said during summertime league. "If you look astatine benignant of minimum, lower-paid players, high-paid players and there's immoderate mediate radical that you telephone the mediate class, if anything, it's somewhat up from wherever we were successful the past fewer years of the aged corporate bargaining agreement."

Silver was referring to the 84% of players that signed non-veteran minimum and first-round rookie contracts, for which the first-year wage was betwixt $4 and $20 million. That's an 8% summation from past offseason.

Of the 31 players listed, 19 switched teams successful escaped agency. That 32% summation from past summertime is simply a effect of teams signing players to the non-tax midlevel objection (an summation from 5 to 10), expanded commercialized rules and acquiring escaped agents with a anterior commercialized exception. For example, Atlanta acquired Nickeil Alexander-Walker successful a sign-and-trade woody utilizing a anterior commercialized exception, and past utilized portion of their $14.1 cardinal non-tax midlevel objection to motion Luke Kennard.

"There's a misconception that players aren't being compensated the aforesaid ways they person successful the past. That's not true," erstwhile Players Association President CJ McCollum told Front Office Sports past week. "Guys are making much wealth than they ever have. The mediate people is making much wealth than they ever person before."

Since the 2017-18 season, the wage headdress has grown from $99 to $154.7 million, portion full subordinate salaries person accrued from $3.3 cardinal to $5.4 billion.

Restricted escaped agents Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga, Quentin Grimes and Cam Thomas are astatine a disadvantage.

Verdict: Fact and fiction

Yes, Chicago, Golden State, Philadelphia and Brooklyn presently person leverage successful declaration negotiations.

But the world is that nary squad extracurricular of Brooklyn (Thomas' existent team) has much than $14.1 cardinal successful wealth to motion immoderate of those 4 players to an connection sheet. Even if the marketplace was flushed with headdress space, determination person been lone 2 restricted escaped agents (Deandre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle) to motion connection sheets since 2022.

Prospects for Kuminga and Grimes are besides wounded due to the fact that of archetypal apron concerns if a sign-and-trade materialized. Because their outgoing wage counts arsenic lone 50%, the Warriors and 76ers are apt hard capped successful a sign-and-trade.

But restricted escaped bureau is not a caller wrinkle. For years, players who did not motion rookie extensions person navigated astir the stringent regularisation but lone if they were consenting to compromise connected their adjacent contract. Out of the 14 erstwhile first-round picks that received a qualifying connection since 2023 and past signed a contract, lone 3 (Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Cameron Johnson) had a starting wage much than $20 cardinal successful the archetypal season.

Kuminga would person been the fourth, but as ESPN's Shams Charania and Anthony Slater reported, Kuminga declined a two-year, $45 cardinal declaration with the Warriors that would person included a squad option.

The 2nd apron has dissuaded teams from including bonuses successful contracts.

Verdict: Fact

Remember successful March, erstwhile the injury-ravaged Dallas Mavericks could not motion a 15th subordinate due to the fact that they were $50,000 beneath the archetypal apron? That was due to the fact that $4 cardinal successful bonuses to Kyrie Irving, Caleb Martin and P.J. Washington counted against the wage cap.

Dallas' dilemma enactment teams connected announcement this offseason.

Out of the much than 150 players that signed a declaration this offseason, nary person bonuses negotiated into their contract. The database includes Irving and Minnesota Timberwolves guardant Julius Randle, who received bonuses successful their erstwhile contracts that are not included successful their existent deals. For comparison, 23 escaped agents signed contracts successful 2023 and 2024 with incentives included.

The diminution successful incentives has besides affected first-round extensions. In the 2022 and 2023 offseasons, 11 of the 26 players who signed extensions had a bonus successful their contract. Since then, lone the Warriors' Moses Moody has one.

Miami Heat defender Tyler Herro's hold signed earlier the 2023 CBA took effect is simply a beardown reminder of wherefore teams person taken a basal against negotiating bonuses. Herro has 5 -- including ones for being named MVP, All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year -- with Miami getting charged $2.5 cardinal against some the archetypal and 2nd apron.

The existent CBA penalizes teams that draught well.

Verdict: Fact, unless you program ahead

McCollum made an absorbing remark precocious erstwhile discussing the caller CBA's interaction connected the draft.

"You shouldn't beryllium punished for drafting well," McCollum said. "Oklahoma City is going done close present wherever you person to wage a batch of players who are truly good. And you draught them, you shouldn't beryllium punished for drafting well. You should beryllium capable to wage and support and clasp the players you've drafted. And erstwhile you person those windows to wherever you truly person a accidental to vie and triumph a championship, you shouldn't person specified terrible restrictions."

McCollum's remark leaves a batch to unpack.

First, the connection is close if we are basing it connected the fiscal disadvantage teams look erstwhile players connected max rookie extensions are named All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year oregon MVP successful their 4th season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons took connected an further $8 cardinal successful wage this play ($45 cardinal during the beingness of the contract) erstwhile Evan Mobley was selected Defensive Player of the Year and Cade Cunningham was named All-NBA.

The counterargument is to attack those extensions similar Oklahoma City has with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The Thunder person protected themselves successful lawsuit either subordinate earns regular play honors.

Unlike Paolo Banchero's hold with the Orlando Magic that includes a 30% escalator (his $239 cardinal hold increases to $287 million), if named All-NBA, MVP oregon Defensive Player of the Year, Holmgren does not person that successful his contract. Williams' wage adjacent play increases to the aforesaid magnitude arsenic Banchero, but lone if helium is named MVP, Defensive Player of the Year oregon All-NBA archetypal team. There are escalators for being named 2nd squad and 3rd squad but astatine a lesser percentage.

GM Sam Presti and the Thunder besides had the foresight of weighing aboriginal extensions successful however they lined up their finances and built draught assets. Over the past 2 seasons, OKC has signed Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams and Ajay Mitchell to contracts that decline, person squad options oregon are partially guaranteed.

And the champs won't beryllium ending that program immoderate clip soon. The Thunder person a surplus of 13 first-round picks and 16 second-rounders successful the adjacent 7 years, with up to 4 first-rounders successful the 2026 draught alone.