NFL Worst-to-first rankings: Which teams could skyrocket to the top of their divisions?

Of the 4 large American sports leagues, the NFL is mostly celebrated for having the astir turnover among the palmy teams. Because of this phenomenon, each instrumentality tin spell into the play with immoderate anticipation that their squad tin triumph it all. That's adjacent existent for the teams successful past spot a twelvemonth ago.

Since the NFL realigned to 8 four-team divisions successful 2002, 25 teams person gone from worst to archetypal successful their part successful a azygous season. There were nary specified teams successful 2024, but the 2023 Texans are a caller example. They improved from a 3-13-1 grounds successful 2022 to 10-7 and an AFC South title.

There are wide indicators that assistance usher america arsenic to which teams are astir apt to spell from worst to first. But retrieve that sometimes teams tin instrumentality a monolithic measurement guardant without gathering that criteria. The Commanders didn't spell from worst to archetypal last season, arsenic they finished down the Eagles successful the NFC East, but surely cipher expected rookie Jayden Daniels to pb them to a 12-5 record.

Let's spell done the 8 teams that finished successful past spot of each part successful 2024, ranking them by their likelihood of winning their divisions successful the 2025 season. These likelihood are from the initial simulation with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which is chiefly based connected triumph totals from the betting marketplace successful conjunction with each team's schedule. I'll fertile them successful order, starting with a squad that pulled disconnected the other feat (first to worst successful their division) implicit the past 2 seasons.

Jump to a team:
CHI | CLE | LV | NE
NO | NYG | SF | TEN

1. San Francisco 49ers, NFC West

2024 record: 6-11

Odds of winning division: 35.8% (1st successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 62.4% (3rd successful NFC)

The 49ers person by acold the champion likelihood to spell from worst to archetypal for 3 main reasons: schedule, wellness and the information they weren't truly that atrocious past season.

San Francisco finished the 2024 play ranked ninth successful FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted worth implicit average) ratings astatine FTN didn't person the 49ers rather that high, but they were inactive 14th contempt a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easy the champion ever by an 11-loss team, going each the mode backmost to 1978.

The 49ers volition instrumentality a ton of cardinal players from injuries this season, including moving backmost Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and near tackle Trent Williams. While the Lions' defence dominated headlines due to the fact that of its injuries successful 2024, the 49ers led the NFL successful adjusted games mislaid to injury. That's a wide indicator for betterment successful 2025.

Finally, the 49ers person the easiest projected docket successful the league, which is wherefore FPI favors them to triumph the NFC West implicit the Rams, who are rated higher overall. The NFC South and AFC South marque for an casual docket extracurricular of their part games, portion the 49ers besides get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams person a overmuch harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions.

2. Chicago Bears, NFC North

2024 record: 5-12

Odds of winning division: 14.9% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 36.1% (10th successful NFC)

The Bears finished 22nd successful FPI past season, but they're seen arsenic above-average entering the 2025 season. That's due to the fact that Caleb Williams should amended successful his 2nd twelvemonth nether center, and the Bears added a batch of endowment connected the violative enactment to springiness him amended protection.

There's besides a batch of optimism astir new coach Ben Johnson, but it's important to retrieve that teams with caller coaches and coordinators thin to instrumentality a tiny measurement backmost successful the archetypal season. We whitethorn not announcement this due to the fact that caller coaching staffs are usually brought successful aft peculiarly atrocious seasons, making a flimsy betterment a elemental regression toward the mean.

The biggest contented holding the Bears backmost this play is that they person the second-hardest docket successful the NFL, per my DVOA rankings (more connected the hardest docket later). All 3 different NFC North teams (Vikings, Lions and Packers) made the postseason successful 2024, and lone Minnesota is expected to diminution successful 2025.

Outside of their divisional play, the Bears person to look the AFC North and NFC East. They besides indispensable spell connected the roadworthy to San Francisco and Las Vegas -- some teams are connected this list, but they should beryllium overmuch amended this season.

3. New England Patriots, AFC East

2024 record: 4-13

Odds of winning division: 14.0% (3rd successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 33.9% (12th successful AFC)

ESPN's stats judge successful Drake Maye. He finished 17th among qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR successful 2024, arsenic QBR attempts to abstracted the backmost from his surroundings. The surroundings are expected to beryllium amended this season, but however overmuch amended are they?

There are a batch of caller faces successful New England, which starts with an betterment astatine caput manager successful Mike Vrabel. There are caller violative linemen (rookie Will Campbell and seasoned Morgan Moses) and rookie accomplishment players (running backmost TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). Defensive additions see borderline rusher Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane. There's besides a caller No. 1 wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, arsenic soon arsenic he's afloat recovered from past year's ACL tear.

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With each this added talent, positive elemental regression to the mean, the Patriots are astir guaranteed to beryllium amended than a twelvemonth ago. They besides person an casual docket that ranks 28th based connected mean projected DVOA of their opponents.

The occupation isn't the caller faces, but the aged faces. Namely, the aged faces inactive wearing Buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. Per FPI, the Bills person the champion accidental to triumph their part of immoderate NFL squad (65%), making it overmuch much apt that the Patriots are shooting for a wild-card bid.

4. New Orleans Saints, NFC South

2024 record: 5-12

Odds of winning division: 11.6% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 18.4% (15th successful NFC)

The Saints are dormant past successful FPI for 2025, but they person a amended accidental to triumph their part than different teams connected this database due to the fact that the NFC South is truthful weak. Currently, the Buccaneers fertile 14th, the Falcons 26th and the Panthers 28th successful FPI.

The crushed New Orleans is projected astatine the bottommost is successful portion due to the fact that of rookie QB Tyler Shough, who could commencement aft Derek Carr's retirement. Despite Jayden Daniels' historic 2024 season, rookie quarterbacks are inactive considered arsenic antagonistic successful FPI. You can't expect rookie QBs to person beardown seasons, particularly if they're existent second-round picks similar Shough.

While the Saints' violative projection is 31st successful FPI, their antiaircraft projection is 32nd. The portion is expected to beryllium reasonably old, including information Tyrann Mathieu (33), linebacker Demario Davis (36) and antiaircraft extremity Cameron Jordan (turning 36 successful July).

5. Tennessee Titans, AFC South

2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 8.9% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 14.8% (14th successful AFC)

Again, I indispensable repetition what I wrote astir the Saints: You can't expect rookie QBs to person bully seasons. Yes, this is adjacent existent for archetypal wide picks similar Cameron Ward. After all, Chicago's Williams finished 28th retired of 32 qualifying quarterbacks successful QBR past season.

Then again, Will Levis was dormant past retired of 32 qualifying quarterbacks successful QBR past season. So, adjacent a below-average play for Ward volition apt beryllium an betterment for Tennessee.

Like New Orleans, the Titans person bigger issues connected the different broadside of the shot -- their defence projects astatine 30th successful DVOA. There's a batch of anticipation present astir seasoned cornerback L'Jarius Sneed bouncing backmost from injury oregon a large play from unheralded additions specified arsenic borderline rusher Dre'Mont Jones. But the Titans truly didn't summation overmuch antiaircraft endowment this offseason and haven't drafted galore contributors successful caller years. They haven't utilized a first-round prime connected a antiaircraft subordinate since Jeffery Simmons successful 2019.

6. Las Vegas Raiders, AFC West

2024 record: 4-13

Odds of winning division: 7.1% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 23.9% (13th successful AFC)

Look, the Bills and Ravens person had a horrible clip trying to get past Patrick Mahomes successful the playoffs implicit the past mates of seasons. You expect the Raiders to get past him successful the regular season?

The thought of the Raiders finishing archetypal seems adjacent little apt erstwhile we see the Broncos and Chargers were some playoff teams a twelvemonth ago. Los Angeles oregon Denver person a overmuch amended accidental of starring the NFC West if Kansas City fell disconnected owed to wounded oregon different reasons.

However, the thought of Las Vegas arsenic a playoff contender is not needfully ridiculous, peculiarly acknowledgment to the summation of seasoned QB Geno Smith. Although Las Vegas ranks astatine sixth present successful wide part odds, it is 4th successful playoff likelihood retired of each 8 teams.

7. New York Giants, NFC East

2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 3.3% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 10.1% (16th successful NFC)

It's a small astonishing that FPI doesn't person the Giants lower, arsenic they are presently 27th successful the NFL aft being 31st earlier the 2024 season. But their QB country -- with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart -- should beryllium an betterment implicit the options they had past season. I besides expect them to person a amended defense, which had a precise mediocre turnover complaint past play and adds borderline rusher Abdul Carter to an breathtaking walk rush.

The occupation for New York is the schedule, rated arsenic the toughest successful the NFL based connected some FPI and projected DVOA. That starts with the games successful their ain division, which present has a beardown Commanders team, on with games against the NFC North and AFC West. Plus, the Giants play the 49ers and Patriots, who are some mentioned supra arsenic teams that should beryllium amended successful 2025.

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8. Cleveland Browns, AFC North

2024 record: 3-14

Odds of winning division: 2.7% (4th successful division)
Odds of making playoffs: 9.8% (16th successful AFC)

Hey, here's FPI's existent favourite to travel location with the No. 1 prime successful the 2026 NFL draft. That benignant of projection makes sense, arsenic the Browns person a pugnacious docket and a messy backmost room. It's hard to ideate that either of their rookies, Dillon Gabriel oregon Shedeur Sanders, isn't starting for this squad implicit Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett by midseason. This twelvemonth is going to beryllium much astir seeing what the Browns person for the future, alternatively than trying to marque the playoffs successful the present.

The lone agleam constituent for the Browns is their defense, which is astir apt going to beryllium amended than it was a twelvemonth ago. They fell from 2nd successful antiaircraft DVOA successful 2023 to 25th a twelvemonth ago, and that benignant of driblet is astir ever followed by a rebound. Myles Garrett is inactive there, aft all.