Open Championship: Experts' picks and betting tips

The 4th large of the twelvemonth begins Thursday with the Open Championship astatine Royal Portrush.

Which players bash our play experts deliberation volition win? Where bash our betting experts judge determination is value? We interruption down the favorites and overmuch much up of the 2025 Open Championship.

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Experts' picks to win | Betting roundtable

Experts' picks

Matt Barrie
Rory McIlroy. Why? I started the majors picking Rory to triumph the vocation Grand Slam. It feels similar a fitting decorativeness to triumph astatine home.

Tory Barron
McIlroy. After the U.S. Open, I've resigned myself to the information I cognize thing (respectfully, if you picked J.J. Spaun to triumph it each -- nary you didn't). That being said, I'm going with McIlroy to triumph his sixth large championship. Despite post-Masters triumph woes, McIlroy showed a instrumentality to signifier astatine the Scottish Open, tying for second. He'll muster immoderate Northern Ireland magic to decorativeness the large play hoisting the Claret Jug for the archetypal clip since 2014.

Michael Collins
McIlroy. Seven of McIlroy's past 8 rounds of competitory play person been 68 oregon better, with 3 rounds astatine 65 oregon better. Of each the players successful the apical 10 shots gained: tee to green, McIlroy comes into the week successful the champion form. This triumph volition gain him POY.

Peter Lawrence-Riddell
Jon Rahm. Rahm has been trending successful the close absorption astatine the majors, and this seems similar a bully week for him to get backmost successful the winner's circle. He has finished wrong the apical 15 successful each 3 majors, with a T-7 astatine the U.S. Open astir recently. He's been wrong the apical 10 successful 3 of the past 4 Open Championships, and this seems similar a bully week for him to adhd a 3rd major.

Andy North
McIlroy. Rory looks similar he's backmost to being Rory. He volition enactment a ton of unit connected himself astatine The Open, increasing up successful that area. I deliberation helium volition grip it and beryllium our winner.

Mark Schlabach
McIlroy. I wondered if Rory would seashore done the remainder of the play aft completing the vocation Grand Slam by winning a greenish overgarment astatine the Masters successful April. He seemed to deficiency overmuch information and adjacent admitted it was hard for him to grind connected the scope for hours aft winning astatine Augusta National. His signifier has been amended successful his past 3 starts, including a necktie for 2nd successful past week's Genesis Scottish Open. I'm definite he'd emotion to erase his memories of missing the chopped astatine Royal Portrush successful 2019, and winning different Claret Jug successful his autochthonal Northern Ireland would beryllium yet different feather successful a Hall of Fame career.

Curtis Strange
Keegan Bradley. Playing great, conscionable won the Travelers. I'm rooting for the story, and Keegan winning, being Ryder Cup captain, would beryllium a hellhole of a communicative for The Open and the Ryder Cup.

Paolo Uggetti
Xander Schauffele. There is thing astir The Open and Schauffele, who has played immoderate of the astir accordant play astatine this lawsuit implicit the years, that conscionable seems to fit. No 1 has defended a large successfully since Brooks Koepka did it astatine the 2018 PGA Championship, but erstwhile the upwind oregon rainfall picks up this week and Portrush shows much of its teeth, I deliberation Schauffele volition beryllium 1 of the fewer acceptable to clasp it.

Betting roundtable

Odds by ESPN BET

Who is your prime to win?

David Gordon, ESPN Research
Rahm (+1200): High finishes don't number arsenic wins, but Rahm is 1 of lone 2 players with Top-15 finishes successful each of the past 4 majors (dating backmost to past year's Open); the different is Scottie Scheffler. He's besides finished 7th oregon amended astatine The Open successful 3 of the past 4 years, and his T-11th decorativeness present successful 2019 doesn't hurt. It each suggests helium could precise good unafraid the 3rd limb of the Slam this week.

Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): No 1 brings much affectional value to Royal Portrush than Rory. It's his location turf and aft a gutting missed chopped successful 2019, this instrumentality is personal. His 2025 signifier is strong, highlighted by a triumph astatine Augusta and elite tee-to-green consistency (5th successful the field). He scores precocious connected links tracks and has a agelong résumé of thriving successful upwind and rainfall (Scottish Open, Irish Open, Pebble Beach). His driving accuracy is low, but scrambling and intelligence toughness equilibrium it. Portrush is simply a spot wherever communicative and numbers perfectly align.

Anita Marks, betting analyst
McIlroy (+650): Rory looked large past week, finishing T2 successful Scotland, and helium is peaking astatine the close time. He dominated Royal Portrush astatine the property of 16, shooting a 61. The 1 large vantage volition beryllium the hometown crowd, which volition beryllium cheering for Rory. A triumph present would get him halfway to a 2nd vocation Grand Slam -- speech astir motivation!

Who is your favourite stake to marque the Top 10?

Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+140).

He has repeatedly proved himself successful pugnacious setups (Torrey Pines, Augusta, Muirfield Village). His trajectory, power and powerfulness enactment good successful wind, and his Open Championship efforts are hard to disregard with 3 Top-10 finishes successful his past 4 starts. His 2025 PGA signifier is mega beardown with finishes nary worse than T14 successful the Masters, PGA Championship and U.S. Open, and helium has the intelligence occurrence to surge connected Sunday.

Marks: Tyrell Hatton (+300).

Hatton is simply a savvy links specialist, and this tourney is the cleanable accidental for him to triumph a major. Players connected LIV are retired of show retired of mind, but Hatton is 1 for the precise fewer that has remained consistent, particularly erstwhile playing successful majors. He had a T6 astatine Royal Portrush successful 2019, truthful we cognize helium has what it takes to maestro this course.

Gordon: Sam Burns (+550).

He's go a dependable beingness successful majors aft struggling earlier successful his career. Burns held the outright 54-hole pb astatine the U.S. Open and was tied for 2nd entering the last circular astatine past year's Open, some times struggling successful the last circular done brutal upwind conditions. I similar the terms much than thing astatine +550.

What is your favourite Scottie Scheffler oregon Rory McIlroy bet?

Maldonado: Rory McIlroy Top 10 (-105).

Getting astir adjacent wealth for a Top 10 is value. He rounded backmost into signifier with 3 consecutive Top 20 finishes including back-to-back apical 10s astatine the Travelers and Scottish with elite ball-striking numbers. Aside from bleeding reddish astatine the RBC Canadian Open, the strokes gained metrics are determination crossed the board. At Royal Portrush, connected location soil, this is simply a high-floor stake with realistic top-five upside.

Gordon: Scottie Scheffler Low American (+240).

This is the champion worth I tin find connected Scheffler, arsenic this is treble his terms to grounds a Top-5 decorativeness (+120). Weary of Xander Schauffele, among others, this is my favourite Scheffler stake with the different 2 tourney favorites (McIlroy and Rahm) hailing from extracurricular the United States.

Who are you avoiding entirely?

Maldonado: Scottie Schefffler.

It's purely a worth call, not a endowment fade. Paying -170 for a Top 10 and getting conscionable +120 for a Top 5 is precocious hazard with not capable reward, particularly astatine a way similar Portrush. Yes, he's inactive contending portion losing strokes putting, which is absurd, but these terms points are inflated beyond tenable risk. I would besides stake outrights connected different players arsenic is and debar the "without Scheffler" due to the fact that his beingness isn't distorting the apical of the committee capable to warrant the premium. If helium wins, fine. you lost, similar astir of the field. But if helium doesn't, you privation a afloat payout not a watered-down fig conscionable due to the fact that you paid to dodge 1 name.

Gordon: Patrick Cantlay.

His decorativeness presumption has been worse than his satellite ranking entering the lawsuit successful 23 of his past 24 large starts. Cantlay often plays good connected emblematic PGA Tour setups, yet it seldom (if ever) translates to large title venues, the latest illustration being missed cuts this twelvemonth astatine some the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Who are your favourite agelong shots/value bets?

Maldonado: Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 (+260).

This is wherever you commercialized information for value. His crippled is tailor-made for links courses -- controlled shot flight, elite scrambling and a proven quality to grip pugnacious weather. At +260 for a Top 10, the upside is real, but the Top 20 gives you borderline connected a subordinate who seldom fades connected this broadside of the pond. If determination was ever a clip for him to win... it's here. Though we've seen this movie before.

Marks: Ryan Fox outright victor (+6000).

Fox is having a large play with 2 wins connected the PGA Tour. He tin grip it and rip it, and has a large abbreviated game, which is cleanable for a links course. He changeable a 66 successful Round 1 successful Scotland past week. Additionally, Fox ranks 8th successful putting mean and is 23rd connected circuit successful full strokes gained.

Gordon: Russell Henley outright victor (+6000).

Quietly coming disconnected 3 consecutive Top-10 finishes, including 2 successful signature events and different astatine the U.S. Open, Henley has afloat returned to the signifier helium showed earlier winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational successful March. He's gained strokes astir the greenish successful 10 consecutive starts, an important metric fixed however tiny the greens are astatine Royal Portrush. Henley entered Sunday tied for 2nd astatine past year's Open successful way to finishing fifth.

Any different bets basal retired to you?

Maldonado: Adam Scott Top 20 (+290).

Pure worth connected acquisition and ball-striking. He's played each large links venue implicit the past 2 decades and enters with trending tee-to-green form. At Royal Portrush, wherever creativity and power substance much than power, his tempo and people absorption springiness him a wide edge. The abbreviated crippled is simply a concern, but astatine this price, you're betting connected crisp irons and seasoned savvy doing capable to support him wrong the number. -

Gordon: Xander Schauffele Top 20 (+140).

He has cashed successful this marketplace successful 13 of the past 14 majors. He's besides ne'er missed the chopped successful 7 vocation appearances astatine The Open. After helium tied for 8th astatine the Scottish Open past week, I'll proceed to put successful Xander Top 20s successful majors, particularly astatine +140.