Open Championship: Ranking the 25 players with the best chance to win

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  • Paolo UggettiJul 14, 2025, 09:15 AM ET

PORTRUSH, Northern Ireland -- The last large title of the twelvemonth has arrived, and if the 2019 Open Championship is immoderate indication, Royal Portrush is erstwhile again acceptable to supply the cleanable canvas for an epic 4 rounds of play to find the champion golfer of the year.

This year's majors person already fixed america compelling results arsenic satellite No. 2 Rory McIlroy completed the vocation expansive slam astatine the Masters, and the apical subordinate successful the world, Scottie Scheffler, added to his large full by winning the PGA Championship. Then, journeyman J.J. Spaun shocked the play satellite past period erstwhile helium outlasted each subordinate successful the tract and conquered Oakmont for his large triumph successful the U.S Open.

All 3 are successful the Open this week arsenic good arsenic the remainder of the apical players successful the satellite who volition look to play their mode into the communicative of this large season.

Here's a look astatine the 25 players astir apt to beryllium raising the Claret Jug travel Sunday.

1. Scottie Scheffler

There is ne'er overmuch to accidental astir Scheffler earlier immoderate of these majors immoderate much than conscionable to ever framework immoderate prediction with the caveat that helium mightiness simply overpower the remainder of the tract successful a mode lone helium can. But what's much intriguing is seeing the three-time large champion marque his mode overseas and effort to construe what makes him excel stateside to a vastly antithetic benignant of golf.

At the Scottish Open this week, Scheffler finished tied for eighth and his grounds astatine Open Championships truthful acold has been, comparatively speaking, the astir mixed of immoderate of the different majors. In 4 starts, Scheffler's champion decorativeness is simply a necktie for seventh astatine past year's Open (he finished tied for eighth successful his Open debut successful 2021) and helium has 2 finishes conscionable extracurricular the apical 20 successful between. If you needed a reminder of however bully helium is, since 2021 (the archetypal twelvemonth helium played each 4 majors) this is the lone large successful which Scheffler has much than 1 decorativeness extracurricular of the apical 20 successful 19 starts.

So, yes -- spoiler alert -- it's harmless to accidental the champion subordinate successful the satellite is astir apt going to contend this week.

2. Jon Rahm

Perhaps nary 1 has been dilatory but surely trending successful the close absorption implicit the people of this twelvemonth much than Rahm. Sure, determination are the sheer fig of top-10 LIV finishes helium has accrued, but much notably is the mode helium has performed astatine the year's biggest events. Since past year's Open Championship astatine Royal Troon wherever helium softly finished successful a necktie for seventh, Rahm has recovered his game.

At the Masters, helium finished 14th and followed up that show with heading into the backmost 9 astatine Quail Hollow with a existent accidental to triumph the PGA Championship. The Spaniard couldn't drawback Scheffler, but the mode helium battled determination and astatine Oakmont to decorativeness tied for seventh felt quintessential Rahm. Nobody gets the competitory juices flowing much than him, and fixed the spot helium already occupies successful European play history, it feels arsenic if helium should person a Claret Jug connected his résumé. The mode Rahm has been playing recently, Portrush should acceptable up good to springiness him a accidental to bash conscionable that.

3. Rory McIlroy

Well, present we are again. The Open has returned to McIlroy's location state and helium should -- accent connected should -- beryllium successful the premix to triumph his sixth large championship. In 2019, that was besides the consciousness and McIlroy proceeded to deed his archetypal tee changeable of the tourney retired of bounds and missed the cut. It was an anticlimactic decision to a highly anticipated week.

A batch has changed since -- McIlroy has won a greenish overgarment and is present a vocation expansive slam winner. He has besides underperformed since that historical triumph successful April. Moreover, helium has spoken astatine magnitude astir struggling to find information portion besides acknowledging that determination is thing astir this circumstantial tourney being successful Northern Ireland that should spark thing successful him. Perhaps that spark came a week early, too. At the Scottish Open this past week, McIlroy played immoderate of his champion play since the Masters, posting rounds of 68-65-66-68 to decorativeness tied for second.

4. Bryson DeChambeau

In the aforesaid mode that determination has been a fascination with however DeChambeau strategizes and attacks Augusta National connected a year-to-year basis, I'm ever fascinated by however his crippled translates -- oregon doesn't -- to links golf. In 7 appearances, DeChambeau has lone 1 top-10 decorativeness (Royal Liverpool successful 2022) and has missed the chopped 3 times, including past twelvemonth astatine Royal Troon.

Anything is connected the array this week for the two-time U.S. Open winner. You could archer maine DeChambeau volition someway find his attack crippled and thrust his abbreviated crippled to a commanding triumph astatine Portrush and I'd judge it. You could besides archer maine helium struggles to support it successful the fairway nether pugnacious conditions and misses the cut. This benignant of crippled doesn't precisely acceptable DeChambeau, but watching him effort to ace the codification is worthy the terms of admission.

5. Xander Schauffele

The defending champion is lone here, astatine No. 5, due to the fact that helium has had a comparatively quiescent twelvemonth since winning 2 majors past year. After dealing with a rib wounded astatine the opening of the year, Schauffele took immoderate clip disconnected and past took clip to get backmost into form. He has lone 1 top-10 decorativeness this play and his attack crippled (top 10 successful strokes gained connected tour) has buoyed what has been an uncharacteristically atrocious twelvemonth for his driver, abbreviated crippled and putting.

One of Schauffele's champion qualities, his wide steadiness, is what allowed him to travel from down past twelvemonth astatine Troon. This week astir apt volition necessitate plentifulness of that again astatine Portrush.

6. Shane Lowry

Perhaps this is excessively precocious for Lowry, but successful 2019, helium rode the affectional question of playing successful a portion helium knows each excessively good to a commanding six-shot victory. The vigor that Lowry volition transportation with him arsenic fans cheer him connected astatine a spot wherever helium has already won should beryllium worthy immoderate benignant of worth to his chances this week.

Like McIlroy, he'll beryllium 1 of the affectional favorites and though his crippled hasn't precisely been successful large signifier astatine the majors this twelvemonth (two missed cuts and a tied for 42nd astatine the Masters) helium does person 4 top-10 finishes connected Tour and it wouldn't astonishment anyone if helium again played good astatine Portrush.

7. Viktor Hovland

Having a existent consciousness for conscionable precisely however Hovland volition play astatine a large title these days is simply a implicit guessing game. Though helium mightiness beryllium waxing successful the quality league astir however atrocious his plaything feels and however he's chasing the cleanable feel, helium mightiness extremity up contending the mode helium did astatine Oakmont past period wherever helium finished 3rd and had a existent changeable to triumph it connected the backmost nine.

Earlier this year, Hovland missed 3 consecutive cuts. Shortly after, helium won the Valspar Championship. Last year, Hovland finished 3rd astatine the PGA Championship and besides missed the chopped astatine the 3 different majors, including the Open. Like DeChambeau, Hovland has the crippled to triumph this week, but the abstraction betwixt his ceiling and his level is arsenic wide arsenic anyone adjacent the apical of this list.

8. Collin Morikawa

There aren't excessively galore radical successful the satellite who are hitting the shot arsenic good arsenic Morikawa has this season. His ballstriking is arsenic elite arsenic ever and yet, contempt having 4 top-10s this season, helium can't look to get implicit the enactment and triumph his archetypal tourney since the 2023 Zozo Championship.

Morikawa knows however to triumph this tourney -- helium did it successful 2021 astatine Royal St. George's -- and though his crippled has objectively improved since then, determination seems to beryllium thing missing successful his quality to enactment 4 prime rounds unneurotic astatine the sport's apical tournaments. This year, helium finished 14th astatine the Masters but has gone backward, finishing tied for 50th astatine the PGA Championship and tied for 23rd astatine the U.S. Open. Theoretically, astatine a people similar Portrush, Morikawa's robust play and accuracy disconnected the tee should enactment him successful contention. How his putting fares (currently 99th connected circuit this season) volition find however acold up the leaderboard helium tin go.

9. Ludvig Åberg

There was a point, close aft Aberg's triumph astatine this year's Genesis Invitational, that it felt arsenic if helium was the speech of the sport. Since then, Aberg has fallen into a spot of a rut, missing 4 cuts (including astatine some the PGA and the U.S. Open) and lone notched 1 top-10 decorativeness (seventh spot astatine the Masters). But Aberg is softly lurking. At the Scottish past week, helium seemed to find immoderate signifier and finished tied for eighth and it would not beryllium a daze if helium entered the speech astatine Portrush this week and hung astir until Sunday.

10. Tommy Fleetwood

Could this yet beryllium the week? Fleetwood has travel agonizingly adjacent to not lone a large triumph successful caller years but really, grabbing immoderate triumph that isn't connected the DP World Tour. Fleetwood's game, with its elite ballstriking, feels primed for an Open Championship and this one, successful particular, should suit his game. Though helium missed the chopped astatine Troon past year, successful his 2 erstwhile appearances astatine the Open, Fleetwood finished wrong the apical 10.

11. Tyrrell Hatton

Perhaps Hatton should beryllium a spot higher here. His show astatine Oakmont was thoroughly awesome -- a necktie for 4th was his champion decorativeness ever astatine a large and it feels arsenic if helium has been dilatory trending toward being much of a origin connected the play of large championships (he has 2 top-15 finishes successful the past 2 years astatine Augusta).

Still, it's hard to shingle the information that Hatton's attitude, the mode helium responds to atrocious shots oregon atrocious breaks volition beryllium tested this week astatine a links setup similar Portrush. Either way, it'll beryllium amusive to ticker him effort this week.

12. Robert MacIntyre

MacIntyre was thoroughly awesome astatine Oakmont, battling the conditions and hold connected Sunday and inactive carding a circular of 2 nether to clasp the clubhouse pb and astir get into a playoff with Spaun. MacIntyre is comfortable, to accidental the least, successful this portion of the satellite and connected links courses. Though helium missed the chopped astatine the Scottish this past week, helium has the crippled to contend astatine Portrush this week.

13. Russell Henley

Any clip ballstriking and accuracy -- and not driving region -- are prioritized successful a peculiar venue, Henley seems to emergence to the apical and with bully reason. He is simply a top-10 subordinate successful strokes gained and has 8 top-10s and 1 triumph this season. On the large front, Henley has struggled, missing the chopped astatine the Masters and the PGA. At Oakmont, a top-10 decorativeness felt much apt, and present he'll get astatine Portrush coming disconnected a fifth-place decorativeness astatine Troon past year.

14. Brooks Koepka

It's hard to gauge wherever precisely Koepka's crippled is astatine the moment. Though helium showed flashes of his aged aforesaid Oakmont and talked astatine magnitude astir however mislaid his plaything had been for a while, helium withdrew from the pursuing LIV lawsuit and finished tied for 32nd successful its astir caller tournament. If conditions astatine Portrush get gnarly this week, I could spot Koepka rising, but it mightiness besides beryllium that his crippled is simply not rather crisp capable close present to genuinely contend.

15. Joaquín Niemann

Here's the thing: Niemann should beryllium higher than 15th connected this list, but the world is that, though helium continues to excel connected LIV (four wins this season), his performances astatine the sport's biggest events proceed to underwhelm. Even this year, aft yet signaling his archetypal top-10 decorativeness astatine a large during the PGA, Niemann followed it up with a missed chopped astatine Oakmont.

16. Justin Thomas

Thomas and the Open Championship don't look to get on precise well. In 8 appearances astatine this event, Thomas has missed 3 cuts and ne'er finished wrong the apical 10. But if you're looking for optimism, Thomas' champion decorativeness astatine an Open came astatine Portrush successful 2019. That week, Thomas played 4 rounds of even-par play oregon better. He'll beryllium hoping to bring that aforesaid benignant of show to the Dunluce people this week.

17. Matt Fitzpatrick

I truly don't cognize what to marque of Fitzpatrick, who hasn't had a triumph connected circuit since 2023 and hasn't truly contended astatine a large since his 2022 U.S. Open win, but helium has shown immoderate signifier going into this week with an eighth-place decorativeness astatine the Rocket Classsic and a fourth-place decorativeness this past week astatine the Scottish Open.

18. Jordan Spieth

Speaking of players who you ne'er cognize what you're going to get, here's Spieth. I person a hard clip believing helium really has a accidental to triumph this week, but adjacent arsenic erratic arsenic helium tin be, Spieth has 4 top-10 finishes this play and has missed lone 2 cuts. Last year, those 2 numbers were 3 and seven, respectively.

19. Justin Rose

Let it not beryllium forgotten that Rose had a existent changeable to triumph this tourney past twelvemonth astatine Troon and finished successful a necktie for second. Rose has had a roller-coaster twelvemonth truthful far, taking McIlroy to a playoff astatine Augusta but missing 3 of his past 4 cuts, including astatine the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Still, astatine 44, helium has proved helium tin inactive contend and an Open mightiness beryllium his champion changeable astatine getting a 2nd major.

20. Corey Conners

Much similar Henley, Conners' superpower is his elite ballstriking, which should construe good to a links people specified arsenic Portrush. It's ne'er rather felt arsenic if Conners has ever raised his crippled capable to genuinely vie astatine a large title (his champion decorativeness is simply a sixth-place decorativeness astatine the 2022 Masters), but arsenic it did successful 2022 with Brian Harman, the Open often has a inclination for giving america unexpected winners who simply support the shot successful beforehand of them each week. Conners could surely beryllium that.

21. J.J. Spaun

Much similar Wyndham Clark aft the 2023 U.S. Open win, Spaun's vocation present takes connected a antithetic tone. Whether helium is capable to travel up his triumph astatine Oakmont with different competitory commencement astatine a large title mightiness beryllium a pugnacious ask, particularly fixed this is Spaun's archetypal clip competing successful an Open.

22. Ben Griffin

How bash you not see Griffin? The 29-year-old has been 1 of the champion players connected circuit this season, winning doubly and racking up 8 top-10 finishes. Griffin hasn't had overmuch luck with the Open -- helium has missed the chopped successful 2 appearances -- but he's playing astatine a full antithetic level this year.

23. Keegan Bradley

Five top-10 finishes, a top-10 astatine a large and a PGA Tour triumph -- that's what Bradley's play looks similar truthful acold and the speech astir him being a playing skipper astatine the Ryder Cup is already astatine a fever pitch. He mightiness not request it, but a large decorativeness astatine Portrush, oregon adjacent an improbable win, would seal it.

24. Sepp Straka

In a determination that tin lone beryllium described arsenic the other of Koepka, Straka has made a surviving disconnected excelling astatine PGA Tour events but continues to conflict connected the sport's biggest stages. Like Griffin, helium besides has 2 wins this play portion adding 5 top-10s, but helium has missed the chopped astatine the Masters, the PGA and the U.S. Open.

25. Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama's champion decorativeness astatine an Open Championship came successful his Open debut successful 2013 erstwhile helium finished tied for sixth astatine Muirfield. Can Matsuyama win? Of course. But it would instrumentality a batch for a subordinate who hasn't had a top-10 decorativeness this twelvemonth extracurricular of his triumph astatine the Sentry.

First 4 out: Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, Sam Burns

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