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In our pre-summit piece on the Xi/Trump meeting [When a Charismatic and a Machiavellian Meet 12 May] we wrote: "When a gifted political charismatic such as President Trump is paired in negotiation with an equally gifted Machiavellian such as President Xi, history-making deals may happen. So too can epoch-defining disasters." At the end of the summit, the two Presidents parted ways in an atmosphere of comity – and with the possibility of hammering out between them this year (with three more summit opportunities) a modus vivendi on Artificial Intelligence with incalculable value to all of humanity.
Beijing's and Washington's announcement of their commitment to establish the first ever "intergovernmental dialogue" on AI received scant attention in the noisy and highly divergent post-summit parlor game commentary about who gained what, who gained most, who gained nothing, and who lost what. This is probably because of deep skepticism that mutual trust can be achieved in the midst of the current breakneck international competition to win the AI race.
Those of a certain age can remember the despondent faces of Reagan and Gorbachev, great friends and partners in peace, when they failed at their October 1986 summit in Reykjavík to reach an agreement that had the potential to eliminate all nuclear weapons. Soon after the summit — in 1990, four years later — Gorbachev was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for the leading role he played in the radical changes in East-West relations" but ever after spoke about his sense of personal failure in not making a deal with Reagan.
At the time, these two leaders of the world's recognized superpowers – the two most politically powerful men on earth in 1986 -- were working in a world where "mutually assured destruction" had become the de-facto solution to avoiding global nuclear war. What Xi and Trump are proposing now is getting ahead of an equally potentially cataclysmic global problem. They are proposing, as the Chinese announcement said, "working together to promote the development and governance of AI, so that AI can better serve the progress of human civilization and the common wellbeing of the international community." In other words, they are committing to using their individual power in their separate global spheres of influence to avoid a cyberspace era of "mutually assured destruction" – let's call this CyberMAD – this time based on weaponizing AI, versus nuclear power that we can call NuclearMAD.
The AI agreements they may strike – a new "rules based" order that only they will be able to enforce in their own regions – might only be possible when the negotiations occur between "frenemies," two counterpart leaders at the apex of world power who negotiate in good faith despite differences in temperaments, competing political systems, widely divergent cultures and histories.
Paradoxically, what stands out against the backdrop of Xi and Trump's numerous and salient differences are their very similar understandings of the logic and dynamics of political power and their shared political ethics regarding only negotiating with true equals in power. The combination of such extreme differences alongside similar political philosophies may pave the way to forging an AI accord.
Should they succeed, history will judge these men as belonging among the ranks of great world leaders, and history will forgive them much.
Let's review some events from the summit that signal why such a deal is possible.
No Big Fat Hug, but a Counter-Cultural Handshake
With his usual seemingly slightly over-caffeinated gusto the extroverted American President declared prior to their meeting that the Chinese President will greet him with "a big, fat, hug." Trump may have been channeling the classic comedy dynamic between a "funny man" up against a deadpan "straight man." In response to this possible wisecracking from President Trump, the austere introverted Chinese President maintained his usual imperturbable silence, though we can imagine him chuckling — or eye rolling — as this sally from his fellow member of the "superpower leaders' club" – that most exclusive club with a current membership of two.
In the end, Trump was greeted in Beijing not with a big hug from Xi, but with Xi accepting Trump's characteristic long two-handed grip handshake and penetrating stare into the other leader's eyes — something highly culturally uncomfortable for a Chinese leader. For Chinese such a full in-the-face stare is usually interpreted as a deliberate act of aggression or dominance.
We cannot overlook how much these two Presidents are working to accommodate each other, despite their real differences.
Though Their Drawbridges May be Down, Their Battlements Remain Armed
Xi and Trump share a philosophy of power whereby lasting international deals can only be made if domestic – meaning personal -- power remains balanced between the two dealmakers. Enforceable deals are only secure if individual domestic power is advertised and equally respected by both parties.
Xi's team made this reminder clear regarding his domestic power when China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson tweeted in the middle of the summit that, "the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations…If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy." The resulting outcry by the American media at this piece of "disrespect" was predictable.
Trump's team made their own statement of defiance regarding domestic power by dramatically chucking any non-organic technology (burner phones and computers) and Chinese representation gifts into a large wastebin at the foot of Air Force One as they departed. This was an unsubtle for-the-cameras reminder to their Chinese counterparts that: "we won't help you spy on us at home." Predictable Chinese commentary ensued over what was labelled an unnecessarily provocative, rude, and "disrespectful" gesture.
Each leader's current stance with regard to their domestic power appears to be enough said and point made (without direct confrontation) and no long-term harm was done. Each leader can make – and take -- political displays of domestic toughness from the other because both understand that each must test their frenemy's strength and resolve. Xi and Trump tolerate and respect each other's political skills on this level, like lions roaring at each other in the wild to mark their territories.
Domestic Postures and Personalities Aside – An AI Deal for the Ages
Xi is a Machiavellian who understands the dangers of yielding to AI control over the material infrastructures of civilization. Trump is a charismatic and intuitively understands the dangers of outsourcing to AI mastery over the intangible psychological ties that shape the social contract between a populace and governance. Humanity missed the mark in WWII with nuclear weapons — each nation hellbent on making such weapons their own and ignoring the global implications of proliferation. This fierce self-interested competitiveness between the world's nations led us to a world where accepting the well-named MAD – mutually assured destruction – made sense as the only way to keep the peace, and therefore all of humanity alive. Today, as we watch the dynamics between the two leaders of the world's superpowers we can hope for a different outcome. Xi and Trump understand the politics that led to NuclearMAD in the past, and how the current politics of AI can lead to the new calamity of CyberMAD. This time however they appear to be taking steps to guide humanity away from making a new set of science-based self-destructive global mistakes.
These leaders — powerful, intimidating, each in his own way brilliant — are best positioned — temperamentally and politically — to hammer out, put on record, and police a deal to curb the dangers of AI and secure humanity's future.
Who knows what marvels future generations will achieve with the aid of AI, if its dangers are curbed through the joint leadership of the Presidents of China and the United States.
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