Ranking the top 64 NHL draft prospects, including projected ceilings and floors

The games are done for the apical draught prospects; determination is nary hockey near to beryllium played. A fewer players successful the apical 10 played until the past imaginable moment, making a lasting content connected scouts and executives astatine the Memorial Cup. With the harvester taking spot this week successful Buffalo, New York, players volition acquisition carnal investigating and a rigorous interrogation process with funny teams. The harvester allows teams to inquire out-of-the-box questions, get a consciousness for the personalities of the players and, successful immoderate cases, recognize the value of injuries.

There is country for question connected the draught committee due to the fact that harvester investigating does interaction exemplary outputs. Furthermore, this database weighs scouting arsenic 40% of the evaluation. The last ranking, which volition beryllium published June 23, volition measurement scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and manufacture intel to varying degrees, which whitethorn spot immoderate players determination up oregon down.

There are 5 parts of this acceptable of rankings:

• The rank, which accounts for attributed worth based connected projection, the assurance of the projection and scouting.

• The NHL projection weighs the projection look astatine 70% and scouting astatine 30%, and represents the astir apt result for that player. The last variation of the rankings volition see the player's NHL ceiling.

• The NHL floor uses the aforesaid look and represents the worst outcome, supra 10% probability of occurring. If a subordinate has a 4% accidental of ne'er playing NHL games and an 11% accidental of becoming a fourth-line winger oregon No. 7 defenseman, past those projections volition beryllium utilized for NHL floor. For immoderate players successful the draft, the level is extracurricular of the NHL, possibly the AHL oregon KHL.

• Projection confidence is based solely connected the projection look and forms 2 parts: assurance and volatility. The confidence has 4 tiers: High, fair, mean and low. This represents that assurance the exemplary has that the subordinate volition scope the NHL projection for 200 oregon much NHL games. The level of assurance impacts the worth of the subordinate and, therefore, their rank. High assurance is supra 80%, just is 60% to 79%, mean is 35% to 59% and debased is beneath 35%. The volatility has 4 categories: Low, slight, mean and high. Volatility relates to the scope of outcomes a subordinate has successful their career. A subordinate with a debased volatility means determination is simply a smaller scope of outcomes for the NHL career, whether that is simply a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, oregon third-line halfway to bottom-six forward. A subordinate with precocious volatility has a wide scope of outcomes, with comparatively adjacent distributions implicit the NHL projection. It could beryllium related to a fig of factors: the league they play in, their scoring if they changed leagues, injuries oregon a important uptick/downturn successful play. Many of these players are considered "raw" successful their improvement curve.

• Strengths are each player's standout abilities.

"Boom oregon bust" is an all-encompassing operation with assurance and volatility. It means the subordinate either hits their NHL projection oregon is improbable to play 200 NHL games. The quality betwixt a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is simple: It means injuries played a relation successful the projection, and the illustration size makes it hard to confidently task the player's astir apt outcome; oregon that the league successful which the subordinate plays does not person a palmy past of producing NHL players.

One different information is the "Russian factor," wherever skilled Russians are much apt to instrumentality to Russia if they neglect to deed their NHL projection.

Here is however the apical 64 prospects enactment up according to my model:

1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, debased volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, unreserved activation

2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Elite No. 1 center
NHL floor: Second-line winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, modulation offense, two-way play

3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)

NHL projection: First-line center
NHL floor: Second-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling

4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line powerfulness forward
NHL floor: Middle-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size

5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Third-line checking center
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speedy hands, playmaking, businesslike puck play

6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Second-line center
NHL floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking

7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)

NHL projection: First-line scoring center
NHL floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection confidence: Low confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, speedy release, size

8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)

NHL projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Motor, modulation offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill

9. Jake O'Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense

10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Physicality, modulation defense, mobility, puck moving

11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six powerfulness forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Motor, partition play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness

12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair modulation defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Size, instrumentality positioning and use, hockey sense

13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL floor: Third-line checker
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor

14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling

15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair modulation defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, modulation play

16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size

17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair carnal defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength

18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking

19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, violative instincts, finishing ability

20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, speedy hands, competitiveness

21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Top-four modulation defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair antiaircraft defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Skating, modulation play, hockey sense

22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Top-six forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, violative play driving, elite release

23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play

24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity

25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 1 starting goaltender
NHL floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility

26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair carnal defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone antiaircraft play, size, mobility

27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair violative specialist
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Skating, instrumentality play, modulation play, slap shot

28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line powerfulness forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed

29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line antiaircraft center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play

30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, earthy playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles

31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line forward
NHL floor: NHL extent player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, violative instincts, puck skill

32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer

33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity

34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, debased volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor

35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line powerfulness forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill

36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, violative instincts

37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)

NHL projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience successful prevention selection

38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 modulation defender
NHL floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, spread control, creativity

39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line antiaircraft center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, punishment killing, competitiveness, finishing ability

40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL top-six center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, antiaircraft instincts

41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Top-six powerfulness forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line carnal winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill

42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, modulation offense

43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six powerfulness forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality

44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six powerfulness forward
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, dense shot

45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 modulation defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Mobility, modulation defense, physicality, size

46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, spread control, puck moving

47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Speed, modulation play, motor

48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)

NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity

49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality

50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)

NHL projection: Middle-six carnal forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line carnal forward
Projection confidence: Low confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility

51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)

NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense

52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: Fourth-line carnal center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, debased volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, antiaircraft play, motor

53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line carnal presence
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, partition play

54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair carnal defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor

55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, debased volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality

56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six antiaircraft center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, antiaircraft play

57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 carnal defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, beardown stick, punishment killing

58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill

59. Haoxi "Simon" Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)

NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Low confidence, precocious volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, modulation defense

60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)

NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Low confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking

61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)

NHL projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL floor: Fourth-line carnal winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, flimsy volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor

62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)

NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, dense shot, skating

63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)

NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, mean volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism

64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)

NHL projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: Boom oregon bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor