Should we have been surprised? A look back at the season's first-half predictions

Each week successful MLB is its ain communicative -- afloat of surprises, some affirmative and antagonistic -- and phantasy managers indispensable determine what to judge and what not to judge moving forward. Perhaps we tin help. If immoderate of these thoughts travel existent ... don't beryllium surprised!

We person made rather a fewer astonishing predictions successful this play abstraction during the archetypal fractional of the 2025 season, and immoderate of them (but surely not all!) person turned retired to look rather silly. Then again, the constituent is to spell beyond emblematic reasoning erstwhile making bold statements. As the league gets acceptable to commencement the 2nd fractional of the season, let's archetypal instrumentality a look backmost astatine immoderate of the much notable, big-name conjectures from April and May to spot however things are turning out.

Don't beryllium amazed ... if things don't get importantly amended for Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers (from April 3)

Well, they did get better. Devers famously began the play 0-for-19 successful 5 March games, striking retired 15 times. Combined with enarthrosis issues from 2024 that compromised his outpouring grooming schedule, determination was crushed for interest successful fantasy. Then Devers deed .356 successful May with 7 location runs and 33 RBIs. What came adjacent was stunning. Whomever 1 blames and for immoderate reason, Devers is present connected the San Francisco Giants, and helium is hitting conscionable .202 for them with 2 location runs successful 25 games. For the season, each looks normal. He's connected gait for much than 30 location runs and 100 RBIs, with what is already a vocation precocious successful walks, and emblematic durability. It's been a weird season, though yet not 1 to tally distant from successful fantasy.

Don't beryllium surprised... if Washington Nationals OF James Wood becomes a top-10 phantasy outfielder, conscionable similar the $765-million antheral (Juan Soto) helium was erstwhile included successful a commercialized for (from April 10)

This 1 was each astir roto/categories leagues, since Soto continues to beryllium a locomotion instrumentality and thus, helium is acold much invaluable successful points formats. The accusation here, 2 weeks into the season, was that the emerging Wood mightiness beryllium a better roto option than the exalted Soto. So far, that has happened. Wood is the No. 10 hitter connected the Player Rater. Soto, acknowledgment chiefly to a depressed .262 batting average, is "only" No. 15. Let's hold that Wood is an awesome gathering artifact (although a precocious strikeout complaint scares america a bit), but determination is thing to interest astir with Soto. We admit Soto having already stolen 11 bases, conscionable 1 disconnected his vocation high. He should scope a career-best runs scored total, too.

Don't beryllium amazed ... if Texas Rangers 2B Marcus Semien leads the most-dropped list soon (from April 10)

This 1 did not hap "soon" -- oregon astatine each -- and that's a bully thing. Semien, agelong a phantasy favourite for middle-infield accumulation and durability, entered June hitting a bittersweet .193 with 4 location runs and batting eighth oregon ninth successful Bruce Bochy's (still) underwhelming lineup. Some phantasy managers moved on. Then Semien deed .324 successful June with 16 RBI and 18 runs scored. He is the No. 15 2nd baseman connected the Player Rater, No. 4 implicit the past 30 days. Dropping Semien was a atrocious call, though it seems wide helium is not the subordinate helium erstwhile was.

One period later, connected May 8, we made the aforesaid "most-dropped list" proclamation for Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman. That was a amended call. He remains rostered successful 88.4% of modular leagues, chiefly due to the fact that helium has that IL asterisk.

Don't beryllium amazed ... if Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll delivers 35 location runs (from April 17)

Carroll enters the season's 2nd fractional with 21 location runs, lone 4 disconnected his vocation best, and slugging a resounding .608 disconnected right-handed pitching. While we similar the power, Carroll's wide hitting trajectory is worrisome, arsenic helium is striking retired acold much successful 2025 than implicit helium did the past 2 seasons, chasing pitches extracurricular the onslaught zone. Plus, his 11 stolen bases implicit 80 games is simply a disappointing figure, since helium stole 54 bases arsenic a rookie.

This mentation of Carroll, hitting .245 but connected gait for much than 35 location runs, remains rather valuable, but not astir arsenic overmuch arsenic the 2023 mentation who was a top-10 phantasy hitter. This mentation ranks No. 37 among hitters successful some roto and points formats -- which is decidedly not bully worth for a top-10 pick. The location tally prediction looks good, but the wide worth has slipped.

Don't beryllium amazed ... if Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes fails to triumph 10 games this play (from May 22)

This one, rather unfortunately, is rather realistic, arsenic Skenes deed the interruption with a 4-8 grounds successful 20 starts. He is not connected gait for double-digit victories. Everything else, of course, looks awesome, arsenic Skenes made his 2nd consecutive NL All-Star crippled commencement this week. No starting pitcher has a amended ERA. Skenes mightiness onslaught retired 200 hitters. Blame Pittsburgh's offense. Comparatively, wins substance much successful roto leagues, and Skenes is "only" the No. 9 starting pitcher (excluding Shohei Ohtani) connected the Player Rater. He is 4th among starting pitchers successful points scored. It feels ridiculous that 103 pitchers person much wins -- done nary responsibility of Skenes -- but it's inactive true, and wins bash substance successful astir phantasy leagues.

Don't beryllium amazed ... if Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani breaks the modern people for runs scored successful a play (from May 29)

Ohtani enters the 2nd fractional starring the athletics with 91 runs scored, having done truthful implicit 95 games. Ohtani has missed 2 Dodgers games this play -- a notable accomplishment contempt pitching successful 5 games, covering 9 innings. There is cipher other similar Ohtani. While it remains imaginable that Ohtani volition people much runs than games played, it isn't likely. Still, the lone subordinate to people 150 runs successful immoderate play since 1950 is Houston Astros 1B Jeff Bagwell successful 2000. Ohtani tin bash this.

As I wrote successful May, I uncertainty Ohtani helps galore phantasy teams with his pitching, arsenic the Dodgers are a near-playoff fastener and volition cautiously agelong this ace retired for meaningful October action, worrying small astir August. However, astatine the plate, adjacent with the expected crisp diminution successful stolen bases, Ohtani remains a phantasy monster.

Other blistery takes from aboriginal successful the season

• Chicago Cubs OF Kyle Tucker seems improbable to decorativeness arsenic the No. 1 phantasy enactment (from April 24), chiefly due to the fact that New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge and Ohtani volition not licence it. Still, Tucker is having a top-10 season, and careless of which squad helium plays for successful 2026, helium should beryllium a top-10 phantasy pick.

• Astros RHP Hunter Brown besides seems improbable to decorativeness arsenic the No. 1 pitcher successful phantasy (from May 1), though helium is No. 4 among starters connected the Player Rater. As with Judge/Ohtani, possibly Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler simply wouldn't licence it.

• Meanwhile, Athletics rookie 1B Nick Kurtz did successful information debut during April (from April 3), and helium is connected his mode to 30 location runs.

• Colorado Rockies C/OF Hunter Goodman seems good connected his mode to being among the apical 10 catchers successful phantasy (from April 10), arsenic helium is simply a beardown No. 3 astatine the position.

• Diamondbacks 3B Eugenio Suarez keeps blasting location runs, solidifying his spot among the apical 50 phantasy hitters (from May 1).

• It's rather the understatement to enactment things look affirmative for Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh to decorativeness among the apical 25 hitters this play (from May 8). He ranks No. 5 connected the Player Rater!

• Much similar Semien, once-sputtering Astros 2B/OF Jose Altuve turned his play around, truthful the prediction that helium is nary longer a top-100 subordinate (from May 15) was not a omniscient one. Altuve is backmost to being the No. 1 2nd baseman successful fantasy, though dynasty/keeper investors should usage this accidental to question a trade.

• Unfortunately, enticing Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver volition not triumph the NL Rookie of the Year grant (from May 22). He underwent Tommy John country two weeks later.

• Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic is 2-4 with a 4.24 ERA since we forecast that helium would decorativeness a top-10 hurler (from May 29). Time to cleanable this crystal shot a spot earlier we get backmost into the prediction crippled for the remainder of the season!