SpaceX moon crash is a perfect metaphor for rocket maker’s share price, analysts say

Parts of a SpaceX rocket reportedly crashed into the Moon on Wednesday — a collision analysts say provide a "good metaphor" for the satellite maker's plunging share price.

Elon Musk's SpaceX slumped in morning trade after reporting its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded company this week. Although revenue soared 92%, investors were unnerved by a sixfold increase in the company's capex to $18.4 billion in the second quarter. The bulk was spent on AI, prompting a rapid retreat from the stock.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

The sell-off coincided with the expected impact of part of a two-stage SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket system.

The section was shed from the reusable lower stage following a January 2025 mission involving commercial U.S. and Japanese lunar landers and reportedly struck the Moon early on Wednesday. The four-metric-ton rocket part, which was travelling at more than 5,400 miles an hour, was believed to have unintentionally struck the Moon around 2:35 a.m. E.T., though the impact has yet to be confirmed.

"Part of a SpaceX rocket crashing into the Moon this morning is probably a good metaphor for the share price performance so far," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at investing and trading platform IG.

Its stock was down more than 7% in midday trading, wiping out most of Tuesday's pre-results bounce — and pushing it further below the company's $135 initial public offering price. The sell-off came despite a better-than-expected second-quarter report. Revenue jumped to $7.81 billion, outflanking the $6.93 billion consensus estimates, while losses were narrower than forecast.

"As visual metaphors go, the fact a SpaceX rocket crashed into the moon hours after it had delivered its debut quarterly earnings feels almost too on the nose," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

While the company's satellite internet division, Starlink, remains SpaceX's key revenue driver, the group's gigantic AI capex spend is unnerving investors, helping to drag the price lower in Wednesday's session.

"This is something the market has taken exception to at many of SpaceX's peers, and the scale of the outlays on artificial intelligence and how much over and above they were on analysts' expectations, were key factors behind the backlash," Mould said.

"A significant difference betwe+en SpaceX and some of the other free-spending participants in the AI arms race is that it does not yet generate meaningful levels of cash flow," he said.

In contrast, Musk's comments suggesting that Starlink could successfully expand into terrestrial networks to compete with the likes of T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon "sparked some nervousness" among those companies, Mould said.

Beauchamp said Starlink, which is currently the only profitable part of SpaceX, is "clearly doing well." But he added that "there needs to be a much more secure path to profitability" if the company's share price is to improve.

The next major test of investor confidence will come Thursday this week, Mould said, when the first investor lock-up expiry takes effect, and more than 900 million shares could potentially become available for sale.

"Many of these will be held by insiders whose entry point was significantly below the $135 IPO price, providing an incentive to sell even in light of the recent indifferent showing for the stock."