St Patrick's in Washington 'not just a green jamboree'

When the US President Donald Trump last hosted the St Patrick's Day festivities in the White House, Northern Ireland got a special mention.

He deliberately drew a distinction between Ireland north and south much to the delight of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) at the time.

It wasn't just a green jamboree.

Now he's back in the Oval Office, much has changed and Northern Ireland will likely be far from the US president's radar.

Given his whirlwind return to the White House, he has much more pressing matters on his mind.

He may even fail to notice the absence of First Minister Michelle O'Neill, or be aware of her boycott over his stance on Gaza.

But her absence will be noted at other key events away from the White House in Washington DC this week.

Like the traditional Northern Ireland bureau breakfast on Thursday.

It is an executive-run event and the first and deputy first ministers hosted it together last year.

It is aimed at showcasing Northern Ireland to would-be American investors and celebrating it's historical and cultural bonds.

• Sinn Féin St Patrick's Day move over Trump policy a gamble

Another key networking event is the Ireland Funds Dinner where the first and deputy first ministers held centre stage last year, marking the return of devolution.

Again, the first minister will not be present.

But O'Neill joined Emma Little-Pengelly on an investment trip to North Carolina on Monday, along with a delegation from the Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce.

On Tuesday, O'Neill will fly home leaving Little-Pengelly to travel on to Washington DC.

She will be present at the White House reception on Wednesday and is likely to meet President Trump.

If so, she will probably focus on Northern Ireland's investment links with the US and maybe mention next years 250th anniversary of American independence.

Stormont is planning to celebrate the role played by Northern Irish immigrants in the birth of the United States of America.

Like John Dunlap who printed the first copies of the Declaration of Independence.

He was born in Strabane in 1747.

Details of events planned will be announced by Communities Minister Gordon Lyons in Washington DC this week.

But the key focus will be on the much-anticipated meeting between President Trump and the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin.

Martin has fifty billion reasons to be nervous about the Oval Office get together.

That is how much in Euros the Irish government profits from it's one-sided trading relationship with the US.

An imbalance which the Trump administration is determined to fix.

A fix which might see the big US firms in the Republic being incentivised back across the Atlantic.

President Trump is also threatening to impose a 25% tariff on EU imports to the US which is likely to trigger a trade war with Brussels.

That could leave Northern Ireland caught in the cross-fire as, under the Windsor Framework, it remains in the EU single market for goods.

It also enforces the EU custom code.

All of which means Northern Ireland may be forced to impose tariffs on US goods, even if the rest of the UK is not.

But President Trump's actions don't always match his threats.

The Taoiseach will also be the first EU leader to return to the Oval Office since the President's bust-up with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.

It is a potential minefield for Micheál Martin and he will have to chose his words carefully.

His moment of jeopardy will come when he faces questions from the press alongside President Trump.

Traditionally, this is nothing more than a photo opportunity, but President Trump likes to shoot the breeze with the press pack.

That could mean awkward questions around the Republic's trade imbalance with the US, or the Irish government's plan to block imports from occupied territories in the Middle East.

Even a skilled politician like Micheál Martin will be tested by such an unpredictable president.