Thaksin's 'royal insult': A warning to Thai ex-PM?

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is being taken to court over an alleged insult to the kingdom's royal family during a 2015 interview.

He is expected to be indicted under Thailand's controversial lese majeste law, one of the strictest in the world, which carries lengthy prison sentences  — up to 15 years per offense — for those who criticize the monarchy.

Thaksin is also expected to be indicted for violating a computer crime law that outlaws the entry of false data into a computer system that is likely to cause damage to Thailand's security or public safety.

Thaksin's new charges stem from a remark he made in an 2015 interview with a media outlet in Seoul, South KoreaImage: Wason Wanichakorn/AP Photo/picture alliance

Thaksin's run-ins with the law

Thaksin is no stranger to legal troubles. He fled Thailand in 2008 after he was facing a prison term for several charges including corruption and tax evasion following a military coup in 2006.

He returned to Thailand in August 2023 and was convicted of abuse of power and conflicts of interest in August 2023 and sentenced to eight years in prison.

He was released in February after just six months' incarceration due to health reasons and a royal pardon from King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

What did Thaksin say?

Thaksin's latest charges stem from a remark he made in an interview with a media outlet in Seoul, South Korea in 2015. He accused the kingdom's privy council of being involved in protests that preceded the 2014 military coup.

Thaksin was set to appear in court on Wednesday over the charges, but the hearing was postponed as the political heavyweight is currently infected with COVID.

"Looking from a political lens, I was a bit surprised," Tita Sanglee, an independent Thailand analyst, told DW.

"These issues should've been sorted out as part of the political 'deal' between Thaksin and the Old Guard. By getting out of prison basically scot-free, Thaksin has already demonstrated his dominance over the judicial process."

Thaksin's repatriation 'politically significant'

Thaksin's return was seen as a dealbreaker to raise support for the populist Pheu Thai Party, the very party he founded.

Last year's general election was the first time in more than 20 years that a Thaksin-linked party failed to win most seats, beaten into second place by the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP).

But pro-establishment forces in the Senate blocked MFP's leader Pita Limjaroenrat from becoming prime minister, paving the way for Pheu Thai to take power and shut the newcomers out of government.

Pheu Thai leads the current government, with Thaksin's business ally Srettha Thavisin as the prime minister and his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the party chief.

Should Thaksin keep a lower profile?

Questions have been raised over Thaksin political ambitions since his release. He has maintained a high profile and is believed to be wielding influence in the government. He still enjoys a strong support base and has traveled the country making public appearances.

But Tita, the Thailand analyst, said that the indictment could be a warning to Thaksin.

"I think what this says, from a political standpoint, is that the conservatives are giving Thaksin a big warning," Tita told DW. "Thaksin has been inappropriately and publicly too active. He doesn't have much of a choice but to lay low now."

Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University agreed with Tita.

"Now his adversaries see this as 'Thaksin's back', he's fully back in Thai politics, and maybe he crossed the line," he told Reuters news agency. "If he doesn't shut up and doesn't stop maneuvering and politicking, if they continue to see him as an enlarging, intensifying threat, then the charges will make their way through the court system."

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics and security, told DW that Thaksin may be "violating the terms of his return and acting as a shadow prime minister and being too engaged in both policy-making and party personnel issues."

"Pheu Thai cannot fight this. It has to be investigated, and there is a 100% conviction rate. So, once again, this will go to the Palace to decide whether he should be pardoned for the sake of political reconciliation."

Thaksin is set to become one of the highest-profile cases among more than 270 prosecutions in recent years under the controversial law.

A spokesperson for the prosecutor, Bejraguna Prayuth, said there is enough evidence for the attorney general to indict Thaksin.

But Thaksin's lawyer, Winyat Chatmontree, said a comprehensive defense had been prepared and Thaksin would seek bail, despite complaints from rights groups about dozens of political prisoners have been refused bail.

Winyat questioned the authenticity of the video of the interview in which the alleged insult was made.

"Thaksin Shinawatra is ready to prove his innocence in the justice system," Winyat told a press conference.

Thaksin's rescheduled court appearance has been penciled in for June 18.

Edited by: Keith Walker

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