The 7 biggest surprises and disappointments of the WNBA season

The 2025 WNBA play continues to bring crippled twists. From enlargement teams beating expectations to caller dynasties struggling to interruption .500 to this year's rookies excelling to past year's marquee rookie rivalries missing successful action, this play has defied casual narratives and storylines -- that's portion of what has made this specified an intriguing campaign.

What we thought we knew ... well, it turns retired we didn't.

With that successful mind, let's unpack the 4 biggest surprises -- arsenic good arsenic the 3 biggest disappointments -- of the season, spinning guardant to what the aboriginal mightiness clasp successful each case.

Biggest surprises

Success of the enlargement Valkyries

It wasn't wide however precocious the ceiling would beryllium for the caller Golden State Valkyries. The WNBA had not added an enlargement squad to its ranks since 2008, erstwhile the Atlanta Dream went conscionable 4-30 successful their debut season. And the six erstwhile enlargement clubs went a combined 47-149 (.240), worthy 10.6 wins successful a modern 44-game WNBA season.

Of course, the league's endowment excavation has deepened successful caller years, and the Valkyries had built their roster astir immoderate absorbing players. Still, ESPN BET acceptable their preseason triumph full astatine lone 8.5, the lowest successful the league.

It's just to accidental Golden State has blown past those expectations, winning 9 of its archetypal 16 games earlier a caller slowdown. Guard Tiffany Hayes has been arsenic reliable arsenic expected, but it's truly been the breakouts of Kayla Thornton, Veronica Burton, Temi Fagbenle and Monique Billings, among others, who drove the Valkyries past their projections -- and proceed to springiness them a changeable astatine the playoffs. According to a forecast based connected Elo ratings, Golden State is tracking to decorativeness the play with 20.8 wins, much than treble its preseason triumph total.

What's next: Unfortunately, Thornton was injured successful mid-July and underwent season-ending genu surgery, a immense stroke to Golden State's astonishing campaign. The Valkyries needed her scoring and particularly her defense, wherever they've been 1 of the league's amended teams. Now determination is adjacent much unit connected Burton -- who is having a beardown all-around play with a plus-3.1 estimated RAPTOR standing -- and the remainder to support the playoff propulsion going.

Rookie guards are lasting out

The long-standing regularisation of predicting WNBA rookies is to springiness forwards, and particularly centers, the payment of the uncertainty but interest astir guards' quality to seamlessly modulation into the pro ranks. We person agelong seen bigs specified arsenic Candace Parker, Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles, A'ja Wilson, Lauren Jackson and, much recently, Aliyah Boston deed the crushed moving successful the W, but perimeter prospects specified arsenic Kelsey Plum, Sabrina Ionescu and adjacent Caitlin Clark typically instrumentality much clip to deed their strides successful the precocious metrics. When I studied this inclination past year, I recovered that -- among top-five draught picks -- rookie centers averaged a plus-1.5 RAPTOR and rookie forwards a plus-0.6, portion rookie guards were below-average astatine minus-0.5.

So the learning curve for this people was expected to beryllium likewise steep, but it has begun to find its mode successful the league with comparative ease. Paige Bueckers is connected gait to lucifer Clark and Odyssey Sims (2014) for the astir Consensus Wins -- a metric that blends the worth estimates of RAPTOR, Win Shares and subordinate ratio standing -- per 44 squad games by a rookie defender since Candice Wiggins successful 2008. Sonia Citron is conscionable a fraction of a triumph down that pace, too. Along with Monique Akoa Makani, each of this year's 3 astir invaluable rookies truthful acold are guards.

What's next: If Bueckers follows successful the footsteps of Clark to triumph Rookie of the Year, it volition beryllium the archetypal clip guards won the grant successful consecutive seasons since Diana Taurasi, Temeka Johnson, Seimone Augustus and Armintie Price won it 4 consecutive years betwixt 2004 and 2007. This procreation of young guards is challenging accepted contented astir aboriginal expectations for the position.

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What you missed successful Paige Bueckers' 20-point nighttime vs. the Liberty

Take a look astatine a speedy recap of Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings taking down the Liberty astatine home.

The Dream's imagination season

The past clip the Dream had either a winning grounds oregon a affirmative constituent differential was 2018: 7 seasons, 5 caput coaches and respective roster overhauls agone for a franchise that went a cumulative 71-133 successful the intervening years. But aft moving connected from Tanisha Wright to prosecute Karl Smesko and shuffling astir players successful the offseason -- notably adding Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner -- Atlanta had the imaginable to amended this season. And has it ever.

It ranks 3rd successful nett (plus-5.3) and violative ratings (plus-106.1), trailing lone the powerhouse Lynx and Liberty successful some categories. Despite worries that Jones and Griner were mediocre fits successful Smesko's system, some person played important roles successful Atlanta's betterment -- and the holdovers person been adjacent better. Allisha Gray has had flashes of being an MVP candidate, Rhyne Howard continues to beryllium 1 of the W's champion two-way guards and Naz Hillmon and Jordin Canada person improved connected past year's RAPTOR scores.

What's next: Howard's genu injury, suffered conscionable earlier the All-Star break, threatens to dilatory Atlanta's turnaround play if she's retired overmuch longer. She inactive ranks 3rd connected the squad successful Consensus Wins down Gray and Jones. But the Dream are 4-3 since losing Howard, and they ought to beryllium bully capable to astatine slightest snag a top-four effect and person home-court vantage successful the archetypal circular of the playoffs.

Azura Stevens, Gabby Williams person leveled up

Every season, it seems astatine slightest 1 subordinate explodes for a career-best show aft years of mean to bully play. (My favourite illustration of this was Nneka Ogwumike's abrupt translation from Swiss Army weapon supporting prima to league MVP with historic precocious metrics successful 2016.) This year, we person 2 specified cases: Stevens of the Los Angeles Sparks and Williams of the Seattle Storm.

Both were top-six picks successful the 2018 draught but neither averaged treble figures successful scoring nor posted an estimated RAPTOR supra mean levels successful their anterior seasons. Stevens had 9.4 points per crippled with a minus-0.7 RAPTOR, portion Williams scored 7.3 PPG with a minus-0.4 RAPTOR. This year, however, some person dramatically improved connected their erstwhile numbers, with Stevens rising to 14.7 points per crippled with a plus-2.7 RAPTOR and Williams averaging 12.8 points and plus-5.1 marks, each vocation champion rates.

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Gabby Williams finishes done contact

Gabby Williams finishes done contact, 07/28/2025

According to Consensus Wins, some fertile among the apical 20 astir invaluable players successful the league this season, a immense level up for a brace of players who had seldom been top-40 performers successful immoderate of their earlier WNBA campaigns.

What's next: For Williams and the Storm, it's astir continuing to play an accrued supporting scoring relation adjacent to Skylar Diggins and Ogwumike portion helping to anchor Seattle's elite defence up of a precise apt playoff trip.

As for Stevens and the Sparks, they're successful a much precarious postseason position, warring with the Mystics and Valkyries for the last spot successful the bracket. With her contributions astatine some ends, Stevens is arsenic important a portion of that effort arsenic immoderate L.A. player.

Biggest disappointments

The Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rivalry has been a nonfactor

Coming disconnected a brace of dueling rookie seasons that helped alteration the WNBA, Clark and Reese were expected to person different melodramatic year. Clark successful peculiar seemed poised to hole her fewer remaining flaws and person an MVP-level play successful 2025, portion determination were plentifulness of reasons to judge Reese would go much businesslike portion continuing her coagulated rebounding performances. But that isn't however the play has unfolded.

While the opening week matchup betwixt the 2 was watched by 2.7 cardinal people, making it the WNBA's most viewed regular-season contention since 2000, the rivalry itself was nary contention -- Clark and Indiana rolled implicit Reese and Chicago successful some the effect and idiosyncratic stats. Since then, some person faced their stock of difficulties.

Clark has played lone 12 of Indiana's 27 games since. Given her past of durability, it's astonishing however overmuch clip Clark has missed this year. Her shooting numbers person besides cratered since past play contempt improvements successful different areas, specified arsenic successful her assist-to-turnover ratio and antiaircraft metrics. The communicative of Reese's season, meanwhile, has been the opposite: She is shooting amended but with worse ratio elsewhere and an uncharacteristically mediocre plus/minus, incapable to assistance the Sky emergence supra the second-worst nett standing successful the league.

Worse yet, Clark was unavailable for each consequent Fever-Sky games and some stars missed the July 27 matchup.

What's next: With Clark inactive sidelined and the Sky gaining nary traction successful the playoff chase, determination is lone 1 realistic remaining tilt betwixt the brace connected the calendar: Sept. 5 successful Indiana. But the information is that portion the league keeps moving guardant successful an epoch of caller popularity, the premier rivalry has had nary relation this season.

The Aces nary longer look similar a dynasty

After wrapping up the 2023 WNBA rubric -- their 2nd title successful arsenic galore years -- the Las Vegas Aces ended the playoffs with the highest Elo standing successful league history, unseating the legendary 2000 Houston Comets that featured Cynthia Cooper, Sheryl Swoopes and Tina Thompson.

A'ja Wilson and the Aces had reached the mountaintop and played astatine rather perchance the highest level the women's crippled had ever seen. But 2 years later, they person small resemblance to that greatness. After carrying a league-best plus-15.6 nett standing and a 1738 Elo erstwhile the confetti settled successful 2023, their nett standing is underwater (minus-0.6), and their Elo (1542) has lone precocious climbed backmost supra mean aft spending astir of the past period beneath 1500.

What changed? Well, it's not Wilson. She inactive ranks among the top-two players successful the league, adjacent if a fistful of missed games mislaid her crushed successful the MVP contention against Napheesa Collier. But the squad arsenic a full has taken immense steps backmost astatine some ends of the court. Vegas has gone from No. 1 connected discourtesy to No. 7 (10.9 points per 100 possessions worse comparative to the league) and from No. 1 to No. 9 connected defence (6.3 points per 100 worse versus the league), starring to a staggering 17.2-point driblet successful nett ratio per 100 possessions successful 2 seasons. Jewell Loyd and Chelsea Gray person taken steps back, Plum is with the Sparks and the roster's extent has eroded. Aside from Wilson, Jackie Young and Gray, nary different subordinate of the Aces has a affirmative RAPTOR this season.

What's next: While things were looking amazingly sketchy for a fewer moments, the Aces should beryllium successful decent signifier to instrumentality to the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season. But what tin they bash erstwhile they get there? Aside from the borderline of having a superstar of Wilson's caliber, thing successful the numbers suggests they're a squad to fearfulness connected the aforesaid level they were a mates years ago. While it is chartless what erstwhile All-Star Cheyenne Parker-Tyus tin adhd if she rejoins the nine earlier the playoffs, Las Vegas whitethorn not person the extent to predominate anymore.

CBA negotiations stay successful flux

While each eyes were expected to beryllium connected Clark and the remainder of the WNBA's young endowment during this play of accrued growth, overmuch of the attraction precocious has alternatively focused connected the ongoing negotiations for a caller corporate bargaining agreement. After a face-to-face acme betwixt WNBPA representatives and commissioner Cathy Engelbert successful Indianapolis past period was reportedly characterized arsenic "wasted" and a "missed opportunity," players astatine the All-Star Game wore T-shirts that work "Pay Us What You Owe Us" portion warming up. It was different motion of however overmuch enactment remains astatine the negotiating array earlier the CBA is acceptable to expire connected Oct. 31.

While a lockout wouldn't beryllium successful either party's interest, astatine infinitesimal erstwhile the WNBA is experiencing its top levels of concern and instrumentality interest, the thorny questions astir however overmuch the players tin involvement retired from that caller maturation (including skyrocketing league revenue, enlargement fees and franchise valuations) stay astatine the bosom of the tensions. Until the parties get person to a resolution, the off-court concern volition overshadow overmuch of the hoops being played.

What's next: Like everyone else, we'll beryllium watching to spot however the looming deadline shapes the discussions. It's just to accidental the adjacent 3 months volition beryllium arsenic pivotal arsenic immoderate successful the league's history.