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This week will be perhaps one of the most important in Donald Trump’s nascent second term as president. Wednesday will kick off his “Liberation Day” when his proposed tariffs will go into effect. Congress continues to negotiate his proposed “one big, beautiful bill” to cut taxes and ramp up defense and border spending while increasing oil production.
So far, there have been few ways for voters to register dissatisfaction on a large scale, save for a few one-off special elections to fill state legislative seats, where Democrats overperformed, a byproduct of how the Democratic Party has become one of highly-educated and high-propensity voters.
But Tuesday will be the first test for Democrats to see if they can turn dissatisfaction with Trump into votes or if Republicans can create a firewall – and if Trump indeed has a mandate.
First, there’s Trump’s adopted home state of Florida. Matt Gaetz, the right-wing firebrand congressman, resigned his seat as soon as Trump nominated him to become attorney general, which never came to pass. But the real challenge will be in Florida’s sixth district, which Rep. Michael Waltz vacated when he came Trump’s national security adviser.
Republican Jimmy Patronis is almost guaranteed to win in Florida’s 1st. But as Inside Washington explained last week, Florida’s sixth district is becoming a tougher slog than imagined. For context, Trump won it by 30 points.
But Gov. Ron DeSantis and Randy Fine, a state senator, have repeatedly feuded going back to the governor’s ill-fated run for president. DeSantis has spent much of the last few weeks sniping at Fine, particularly because before Waltz won the seat in 2018, DeSantis held it before resigning to run for governor.
But Fine has proven to be a particularly toxic candidate. He previously said Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, both of whom are Muslim, “might consider leaving before I get there,” before using the hashtag #BombsAway.
Not surprisingly, Elon Musk’s America PAC poured money into the race, spending more than $20,000 to support Patronis in the past week, according to reports from the Federal Election Commission. The PAC threw even more behind Fine, spending about $87,000 last week.
Democrats for their part have done a full-court press for Democrat Josh Weil. Ken Martin, the newly-minted chairman of the Democratic National Committee, went down south. Sen. Bernie Sanders also endorsed Weil.
Both Fine and Weil are Jewish, though Fine has depicted himself as a thoroughly pro-Israel Republican while in the past, Weil called for an end to U.S. military aid to Israel.
Despite his baggage, Fine still is the favorite to win. But if Democrats cut into the margins significantly, it will show how the party can craft a winning message even in blood-red Florida.
While the tussle in Florida is certainly entertaining, Musk and Democrats have made their main focus the election for a seat on Wisconsin’s supreme court the main prize on Tuesday evening.
While the races are ostensibly non-partisan, the balance on the court is currently 4-3 with the liberals in control ever since Janet Protasiewicz won her race in 2023. Liberal justice Ann Walsh Bradley is retiring, meaning there is a closely-watched race between circuit judge Susan Crawford, a liberal, and former Republican attorney general Brad Schimel.
Over the weekend, Elon Musk visited Wisconsin, where he gave two $1 million checks to Republican voters and decked himself out in the customary cheesehead. Specifically, Musk correctly pointed out that the court would determine the drawing of congressional districts in the swing state.
As of right now, Wisconsin only has two Democratic members of Congress and six Republicans. A new court could change that. Musk also has a vested interest because he has a legal fight in Wisconsin after Tesla was denied a request to open an auto dealership in the state.
Wisconsin’s Democratic Party, led by chairman Ben Wikler, is considered one of the best-run in the country. Despite Kamala Harris losing Wisconsin, it proved to be a bright spot last year in that she lost by a smaller margin than elsewhere, Democrats gained seats in the state legislature and Sen. Tammy Baldwin won re-election.
“It is a shame that Elon Musk has gotten involved,” Baldwin told The Independent. “He has litigation in Wisconsin, that could end up before the supreme court. No wonder he’s putting so much money into Schimel’s campaign.”
Democrats have been demoralized ever since Trump’s win. Many more Democrats were furious when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voted to pass a Republican-written continuing resolution. Now, they have a real chance to show their anger, not just against Trump, but Musk directly.
