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Countries are experiencing demographic ageing due to lower levels of fertility and mortality. Credit: ShutterstockPORTLAND, US, Mar 10 (IPS) - Country populations worldwide are experiencing the demographic ageing transformation. The relatively young populations experienced during most of the 20th century are increasingly being transformed into the older populations of the 21st century.
The historic demographic ageing transformation raises vital economic, political and social concerns for countries worldwide. Those concerns relate especially to the labor force, consumption, taxation, voting, retirement, pensions, healthcare, chronic illnesses, long-term care, social services, rising costs and program insolvencies.
Countries are experiencing demographic ageing due to lower levels of fertility and mortality. People are having fewer children than in the recent past, with the fertility rates of more than half of all countries falling well below the replacement level of two births per woman. In addition, mortality rates worldwide are lower than in the past accompanied by increasing longevity of both women and men with growing numbers of centenarians.
One straightforward indicator of demographic ageing is the median age of a population. Over the recent past, the median age of the world’s population increased markedly.
The world’s median age increased from 22 years in 1950 to 31 years today. By mid-century, the median age is expected to increase to 36 years. And by the close of the century, the median age of the world’s population is projected to reach 42 years, nearly twice the 1950 level (Figure 1).
Source: United Nations.Considerable variation exists in the median ages of countries. In 1950, for example, while some countries such as Austria and Belgium had median ages of about 35 years, other countries such as Niger and the Philippines had a median age of about 15 years. In 2025, the highest median ages of approximately 50 years are in Italy and Japan. In contrast, the countries with the lowest median age of about 15 years in 2025 include the Central African Republic and Niger.
The median ages of country populations are continuing to increase. By 2050, for example, countries with the highest median ages include South Korea at 57 years and Italy and Japan at 53 years. In contrast, countries with the lowest median ages include the Central African Republic at 19 years and Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at 20 years.
The median ages for countries are expected to continue increasing during the second half of the 21st century. By the year 2100, among the projected oldest countries are China and South Korea with median ages of approximately 60 years. And among the youngest countries at that future date are expected to be Chad and the DRC with median ages of 32 years.
Another insightful measure reflecting the demographic ageing transformation is the proportion of the population who are elderly, i.e., aged 65 years or older. Similar to the median age, the percentages elderly for the world’s population were relatively low during the second half of the 20th century, around 5 to 7 percent, and then increased markedly reaching 10 percent by 2025. The percentages are expected to continue increasing, reaching 16% by 2050 and 24% by the close of the 21st century (Figure 2).
Source: United Nations.Similar to the median ages, the proportions of national populations who are elderly vary considerably and are also continuing to increase. In 1950, for example, while the proportion elderly in some countries such as France and Belgium was 11 percent, in other countries such as Niger and Mauritania the proportion was 1 percent. By 2025, the highest estimated proportions elderly are in Japan at 30% and Italy at 25%. In contrast, countries with the lowest percent elderly at about 2% include Chad and Zambia
By 2050, countries with the highest projected percent elderly include South Korea at 40% and Japan at 38%. Again in striking contrast, countries with the lowest projected percentages include the Central African Republic and Chad at approximately 2%.
At the close of the 21st century, China and South Korea are expected to have the highest proportions elderly at about 45%. As with the median ages, the lowest expected proportions elderly are among African countries, such as Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at about 10%.
It is widely recognized, especially by governments, international agencies, businesses, non-governmental organizations and scholars, that populations worldwide are experiencing the demographic ageing transformation. It is also acknowledged that the demographic ageing of populations is resulting in formidable economic, political and social challenges for nations.
Government officials are concerned about the rising economic costs and projected insolvencies of programs for the elderly. They are also concerned about the negative reactions by the public to policy and program changes, especially with respect to retirement, pensions, benefits, social services and healthcare. In particular, attempts and suggestions to raise the official retirement age and reduce healthcare coverage for the elderly have been made with objections and protests.
Reluctant to accept the realities of the demographic ageing era, many governments have tended to postpone accepting the needed changes in policies, programs and expenditures for their ageing populations.
Rather than fully embracing the demographic ageing transformation, many governments have attempted to raise their low fertility rates back to at least the replacement level. By doing so, they are hoping to return to the comparatively youthful age structures of the past.
The various attempts to raise fertility rates and return to the younger age structures of the past have not achieved their desired goals. In addition, international population projections expect fertility rates to remain below the replacement level for the foreseeable future.
Rather than attempting to return to the comparatively youthful age structures of the past, countries need to recognize and accept the reality of the demographic ageing of their respective populations.
Following that recognition and acceptance, governments and their citizens need to begin actively adjusting to the many formidable challenges arising from the demographic ageing transformation. Moreover, the sooner they begin making the necessary adjustments and changes, the smoother and more straightforward will be the transition to their ageing populations of the 21st century.
Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, "Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials".
© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
