UFC 316 expert picks, best bets: How can O'Malley take back Dvalishvili's title?

Sean O'Malley looks to reclaim the UFC men's bantamweight title erstwhile helium takes connected titleholder Merab Dvalishvili successful the main lawsuit of UFC 316 connected Saturday nighttime (10 ET connected ESPN PPV, with prelims astatine 8 connected ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+ and aboriginal prelims astatine 6 connected ESPN+/Disney+).

O'Malley, ranked No. 2 successful ESPN's divisional rankings, held the rubric from August 2023 to September 2024, erstwhile helium mislaid to Dvalishvili by unanimous decision. This is O'Malley archetypal combat since the loss. Dvalishvili, ESPN's No. 4-ranked men's pound-for-pound fighter, bushed Umar Numagomedov by unanimous determination successful his past fight.

In the co-main event, Julianna Peña puts her women's bantamweight rubric connected the enactment against Kayla Harrison. Peña, ranked No. 7 successful ESPN's women's P4P rankings, narrowly bushed Raquel Pennington by divided determination to assertion the title. This is Peña's 2nd rubric run. Harrison, ESPN's No. 4-ranked women's P4P fighter, enters the combat pursuing a unanimous determination triumph implicit Ketlen Vieira. Harrison is simply a erstwhile two-time PFL champion.

Brett Okamoto spoke to erstwhile UFC fighters Din Thomas and Anthony Smith to get their main lawsuit predictions. ESPN betting adept Ian Parker adds penetration and investigation connected the main lawsuit and different intriguing bets helium likes connected the card.

Men's bantamweight championship

"This [pick] has thing to bash with O'Malley. I conscionable deliberation successful bid to bushed Merab, you person to beryllium the bantamweight mentation of the precocious Anthony 'Rumble' Johnson. There has to beryllium that one-punch, 'shut-off' power. O'Malley fights truthful good astatine range, but I don't deliberation Merab is going to springiness him abstraction to bash what helium does best. " -- Anthony Smith

"It volition beryllium somewhat person and much competitory than their archetypal [fight], but I deliberation Merab's strength volition beryllium a small excessively overmuch for O'Malley. And ultimately, O'Malley won't beryllium capable to enactment disconnected his back. " -- Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds close arsenic of June. For the astir up-to-date odds, sojourn ESPN BET.

Parker: Dvalishvili to triumph by determination (-170). It is hard to ideate this rematch going immoderate otherwise than the archetypal fight. Since then, Dvalishvili has defended successfully against an elite combatant successful Nurmagomedov, portion O'Malley has sat idly, hoping for this opportunity. Unless O'Malley catches the champ disconnected defender and puts him away, I expect this to beryllium a emblematic Dvalishvili fight. Look for him to sprout continuous takedowns and use unit astatine a menacing gait for each 5 rounds. To marque the terms much manageable, you tin instrumentality Dvalishvili to triumph by decision.

Women's bantamweight championship

"Julianna is going to walk excessively overmuch clip trying to wrestle, and it's not going to work. She'll extremity up connected her back, wherever I spot her eating a fewer excessively galore elbows." -- Din Thomas

"I deliberation Julianna fights a batch successful the grey areas, punching into clinches and takedowns. I don't deliberation she tin triumph those situations and triumph capable of those moments to bushed Kayla. I deliberation it'll beryllium competitory astatine times and Julianna volition onslaught Kayla's state tank, but Kayla volition triumph much moments implicit the people of 5 rounds." -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Parker: Under 4.5 rounds (+125). Harrison is the biggest betting favourite connected the card, which is uncommon for the challenger successful a rubric fight. Although Peña is tough, unless Harrisson gasses retired to the constituent that she can't onshore a takedown, it's hard to ideate her not finishing Peña. Once Harrison gets the combat to the mat, Peña volition beryllium successful a satellite of trouble, warring conscionable to survive. At immoderate point, Harrison's takedowns and apical unit volition beryllium excessively much.

Parker's champion bets connected the remainder of the card

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Serghei Spivac takes combat to the mat rapidly vs. Derrick Lewis

Serghei Spivac puts connected a dominating show successful the archetypal circular against Derrick Lewis.

Men's bantamweight: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Mix to triumph (-185). Mix is making his debut against Bautista, who is connected a seven-fight winning streak. This matchup should diagnostic plentifulness of amusive grappling exchanges. If this combat stays connected the feet, it's a coin toss. However, if Mix tin enactment Bautista connected his back, helium volition instrumentality over. Mix whitethorn beryllium the champion grappler successful the satellite astatine 135 pounds, and I judge his skills volition beryllium connected afloat display.

Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Spivac to triumph (-150). Spivac is simply a adjacent -150 favorite, which is surprising, arsenic I judge helium should beryllium a -200 oregon adjacent heavier. On the feet, Spivac is the much skilled striker, and helium has an fantabulous crushed crippled that Cortes-Acosta won't beryllium capable to defend. As agelong arsenic Spivac stays distant from Cortes-Acosta's power, helium should beryllium capable to adjacent the region and utilize his grappling vantage to get the win.