2 months ago
11
The 2024
presidential race
tightened as
Vice President Kamala Harris
narrowly led Donald Trump, according to the latest
poll data
. With less than two months remaining until
Election Day
, Harris gained momentum and held a slight edge over her Republican rival.
Recent polls show Harris leading
A new ABC News/Ipsos poll, released on Sunday, revealed that Harris led Trump 50% to 46% among all adults and registered voters.
Among likely voters, Harris’ lead widened to 52% compared to Trump’s 46%. This result was consistent with polling conducted before the Democratic National Convention, where Harris stood at 49% and Trump at 45%.
Pollsters noted that while most numbers remained stable since August, Harris gained ground among women, now leading by 13 points (54% to 41%), up from a 6-point lead before the convention. Harris also received higher marks for her campaign, with 56% of Americans rating her performance as excellent or good, compared to 41% for Trump.
Harris surpasses Biden’s performance in key states
Harris outperformed Trump in the battleground states, maintaining a slight advantage within the margins of error in nearly every national survey. NBC News reported that Harris fared better against Trump than Biden did before his exit, indicating growing confidence in her leadership.
The concept of a margin of error, as explained by Pew Research, refers to the range within which a survey result is expected to fall relative to the true population value. While Harris' lead was within this range, it underscored the competitive nature of the race.
Trump’s strengths and weaknesses
Despite Harris’ lead, Trump maintained advantages in areas critical to voters. He outperformed Harris on trust regarding key issues such as the economy and inflation, leading by 8 points in each category. Trump also had a 9-point lead over Harris on handling the US-Mexico border. However, Harris was perceived as more trustworthy on protecting American democracy and Supreme Court appointments.
The latest polling index by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ also showed Harris with a 3.8-point national lead over Trump. The ABC News/Ipsos poll, conducted from August 23-27 with 2,496 completed interviews, had a margin of sampling error of 2.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Trump’s consistent base
Despite Harris' gains, Trump remained a formidable opponent, consistently polling at around 47% nationwide. Polls conducted by The Wall Street Journal, EPIC-MRA in Michigan, and Bloomberg/Morning Consult in Georgia and Michigan all placed Trump at this level of support. However, the overall trend showed a reversal in fortunes since Biden's departure, with Harris now holding a narrow edge.
Swing state dynamics
Swing state polls revealed a complex and evolving landscape. Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls indicated that Harris had overtaken Trump within the margin of error in Georgia (50%), Michigan (49%), Nevada (50%), and Pennsylvania (51%). In Wisconsin, she held a more decisive lead at 53%, while she was tied with Trump in Arizona and North Carolina. This sharply contrasted with Biden’s performance in these states, where he struggled to gain traction.
Before Harris took over the Democratic ticket, Biden trailed Trump, even before the June 27 debate that further damaged his campaign. Harris, on the other hand, was now seen as a more trusted leader and was performing better across the board.
Additional polls from The Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today also showed Harris in the lead, with percentages ranging from 48% to 49%. Trump remained close behind, polling between 43% and 48% in these surveys.
Poll insights and campaign implications
The ABC News/Ipsos poll reflected Harris’ ability to leverage her campaign effectively, despite the race remaining highly competitive. Trump, while maintaining a solid base, faced challenges in closing the gap with Harris, who managed to capitalize on recent Democratic momentum.
As both campaigns intensified their efforts, the upcoming weeks were crucial in determining whether Harris could sustain her lead or if Trump would make a comeback. With the presidential election just around the corner, all eyes were on how these dynamics evolved.
